Peter Nash & Todd Bond CZM Pty Ltd The Project To undertake a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Peter Nash & Todd Bond CZM Pty Ltd The Project To undertake a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 01, 2024 131 likes •1.01k views

Welcome Peter Nash & Todd Bond CZM Pty Ltd The Project To undertake a climate change risk assessment and develop an adaptation plan for the Shire of Murchison The Study Area The Shire of Murchison pastoral industry is the dominant

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Peter Nash & Todd Bond CZM Pty Ltd

Welcome

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The Project

To undertake a climate change risk assessment and develop an adaptation plan for the Shire of Murchison

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The Study Area

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The Shire of Murchison

  • pastoral industry is the dominant land use and

employer

  • 26 stations, 2 of these destocked and managed

by DEC

  • no other industry
  • no “town”
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The Project

  • Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP) is funded

by Federal Government

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The Project

  • Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP) is funded

by Federal Government

  • LAPP focus is on the impact of climate change on local
  • govt. services and operations (ie. Shire of Murchison)
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SLIDE 7

The Project

  • Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP) is funded

by Federal Government

  • LAPP focus is on the impact of climate change on local
  • govt. services and operations (ie. Shire of Murchison)
  • Pastoral industry is dominant employer and land use in

Shire of Murchison, hence it became the focus of Project

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SLIDE 8

The Project

  • Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP) is funded

by Federal Government

  • LAPP focus is on the impact of climate change on local
  • govt. services and operations (ie. Shire of Murchison)
  • Pastoral industry is dominant employer and land use in

Shire of Murchison, hence it became the focus of Project

  • LAPP is a prescribed risk assessment and adaptation

planning process

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Modeling Climate Change

To be able to model climate change, we must predict how the world will look in the future

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Modeling Climate Change

  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) uses 40 different scenarios to model climate change

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Modeling Climate Change

  • The IPCC uses 40 different scenarios to model climate

change

  • Each scenario considers different future demographic,

economic and technological factors likely to influence future emissions

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Modeling Climate Change

  • The IPCC uses 40 different scenarios to model climate

change

  • Each scenario considers different future demographic,

economic and technological factors likely to influence future emissions

  • This case study utilised the A1FI scenario for 2070

(50th percentile)

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The A1FI Scenario

  • The A1 Scenarios describe a future world of
  • very rapid economic growth
  • a global population that peaks around 2050 and

declines thereafter

  • and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient

technologies.

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The A1FI Scenario

  • The letters following the A1 indicate the level of

technological emphasis. FI means Fossil Intensive - a world that primarily uses oil, gas and coal to produce energy.

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The A1FI Scenario

  • A1FI is most pessimistic scenario and is

considered to be the upper limit of climate change impacts

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The A1FI Scenario

  • A1FI is most pessimistic scenario and is considered to

be the upper limit of climate change impacts

BUT global climate parameters are currently

tracking in line with A1FI projections

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Timeframe

  • All climate change projections in the case

study are for 2070

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Timeframe

  • All climate change projections in the case

study are for 2070

  • Projected changes in climate parameters

(rainfall, temp, extreme events etc.) are relative to a 1990 baseline.

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A1FI 2070 Projections Temp & Rainfall

Projections for Temperature & Rainfall

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A1FI 2070 Projections Temp & Rainfall

Annual and seasonal projected temperature and rainfall change by 2070 for the scenario A1FI (high emissions) using the 50th percentile. Source CSIRO (2007).

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A1FI 2070 Projections Temp & Rainfall

  • The CSIRO has refined (downscaled)

projections for all Australian capital cities and some regional centres

  • In WA, Perth is the only place we have

downscaled data for.

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For Murchison?

Variable Season Perth Darwin Alice Springs Murchison Temperature (C) Annual +2.7 +3.2 +3.7 (+) 3 – 4 Summer +2.9 +3.2 +3.8 (+) 3 – 4 Autumn +2.7 +3.3 +3.6 (+) 3 – 4 Winter +2.3 +3.2 +3.3 (+) 3 – 4 Spring +2.9 +3.3 +4.1 (+) 3 – 4

  • No. of days above 35C

Annual 53.8 (currently 28.1) 226.8 (currently 10.8) 155.1 (currently 89.6) Increase (currently 105.7) Rainfall (%) Annual

  • 19
  • 1
  • 17

(-) 10-20 Summer

  • 12

+1

  • 11

(-) 10-20 Autumn

  • 12
  • 12

(-) 5-10 Winter

  • 22
  • 13
  • 25

(-) 20-40 Spring

  • 27
  • 15
  • 26

(-) 20-40

Climate change projections for Murchison and the nearest locations for which downscaled CSIRO data is available (A1FI, 2070, 50th percentile). Source CSIRO (2007) & BoM (2009).

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For Murchison?

Variable Season Murchison Current (average) Murchison Projected, 2070 (average, rounded to nearest whole number)

Temperature (C) (daily maximum) Annual 30.1 ~ 33 - 34 Summer 38.1 ~ 41 - 42 Autumn 30.5 ~ 33 - 34 Winter 21.6 ~ 25 - 26 Spring 30.2 ~ 33 - 34 Rainfall (mm) Annual 244.7 196 - 220 Summer 70.2 57 – 63 Autumn 81.9 66 - 74 Winter 76.3 46 - 61 Spring 18.6 12 - 15

Current average temperature and rainfall for Murchison compared to that projected for Murchison in 2070 (A1FI, 50th percentile). Source CSIRO (2007) & BoM (2009).

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Moving Murchison

Is there anywhere in the WA rangelands now that is similar to Murchison in 2070?

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For Murchison?

Monthly rainfall average of locations with a similar annual rainfall to that projected for 2070 under the A1FI scenario (50%) for the Shire of Murchison

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A1FI 2070 Projections Extreme Weather

Projections for Extreme weather

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A1FI 2070 Projections Extreme Weather Cyclones:

  • may be more frequent
  • a higher proportion will more severe
  • will be born further south and may

dissipate further south

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A1FI 2070 Projections Extreme Weather Rainfall intensity:

  • rainfall events will be less frequent but of

higher intensity

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Observed Climate Change in Australia

Observed Climate Change

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Observed Climate Change in Australia Since 1960, the following changes have been recorded:

  • mean temp increased by 0.70C

(Murchison is rising by 0.1-0.150C/ decade)

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Observed Climate Change in Australia Since 1960, the following changes have been recorded:

  • mean temp increased by 0.70C

(Murchison has risen by 0.1-0.150C/ decade)

  • rainfall is declining in SW & SE Australia

(Murchison has declined by ~5mm/ decade)

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Observed Climate Change in Australia

Possible Impacts of Climate Change in the Rangelands

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Possible Impacts of Climate Change

Changes in flora and fauna communities:

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Possible Impacts of Climate Change

Changes in flora and fauna communities:

  • loss of sensitive flora and fauna species
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Possible Impacts of Climate Change

Changes in flora and fauna communities:

  • loss of sensitive flora and fauna species
  • possible extinction or decline in prevalence of

important grazing species

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Possible Impacts of Climate Change

Changes in flora and fauna communities:

  • loss of sensitive flora and fauna species
  • possible extinction or decline in prevalence of

important grazing species

  • possible increase in pest species (flora and

fauna)

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Possible Impacts of Climate Change

Changes in flora and fauna communities:

  • loss of sensitive flora and fauna species
  • possible extinction or decline in prevalence of

important grazing species

  • possible increase in pest species (flora and

fauna)

  • feed production from important grazing

species likely to decline

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More On Biodiversity

Climate change concerns for flora and fauna communities of significance to the pastoral (and tourism) industries:

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More On Biodiversity

Climate change concerns for flora and fauna communities of significance to the pastoral (and tourism) industries:

Ecosystems that are particularly vulnerable to climate change includes coral reefs, arid and semi-arid habitats in southwest and inland Australia, freshwater wetlands in the coastal zones and alpine systems (IPCC 2002)

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More On Biodiversity

Climate change concerns for flora and fauna communities of significance to the pastoral (and tourism) industries:

Ecosystems that are particularly vulnerable to climate change includes coral reefs, arid and semi-arid habitats in southwest and inland Australia, freshwater wetlands in the coastal zones and alpine systems (IPCC 2002) Some plant species (e.g. members of the Dryandra genus) are limited to very specific soil types and bio-climactic modelling suggests that a global temperature rise of as little as 10C could seriously threaten these species (NRMMC, 2004).

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More On Biodiversity

Climate change concerns for flora and fauna communities of significance to the pastoral (and tourism) industries:

Ecosystems that are particularly vulnerable to climate change includes coral reefs, arid and semi-arid habitats in southwest and inland Australia, freshwater wetlands in the coastal zones and alpine systems (IPCC 2002) Some plant species (e.g. members of the Dryandra genus) are limited to very specific soil types and bio-climactic modelling suggests that a global temperature rise of as little as 10C could seriously threaten these species (NRMMC, 2004). Many species of Western Australian frogs, mammals and plants could become restricted to small areas, or could disappear altogether, with a warming of only 0.5C (NRMMC, 2004).

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More On Biodiversity

Climate change concerns for flora and fauna communities of significance to the pastoral (and tourism) industries:

Ecosystems that are particularly vulnerable to climate change includes coral reefs, arid and semi-arid habitats in southwest and inland Australia, freshwater wetlands in the coastal zones and alpine systems (IPCC 2002) Some plant species (e.g. members of the Dryandra genus) are limited to very specific soil types and bio-climactic modelling suggests that a global temperature rise of as little as 10C could seriously threaten these species (NRMMC, 2004). Many species of Western Australian frogs, mammals and plants could become restricted to small areas, or could disappear altogether, with a warming of only 0.5C (NRMMC, 2004). Pouliquen-Young and Newman (2000) concluded that 100% of Acacia species may be eliminated in south west Australia with a temperature rise of as little as 1- 2oC.

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Possible Impacts of Climate Change

More management effort required:

  • more frequent monitoring of stock health and

available feed and water

  • more frequent movement of stock
  • more frequent manipulation of stocking

numbers

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Possible Impacts of Climate Change

Less available water:

  • less “opportunistic” water available in natural

catchments

  • greater reliance on reticulated supplies
  • less recharge of groundwater aquifers

Foster

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Possible Impacts of Climate Change

Increased heat stress in livestock:

  • reduced growth rates
  • increased foetal mortality
  • increased requirement for water
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Possible Impacts of Climate Change

Increased frequency & severity of fires:

  • more livestock deaths
  • reduced feed availability
  • more damage to infrastructure (fences, mills,

yards)

  • more erosion of exposed soil
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Possible Impacts of Climate Change

Harsher working conditions:

  • people less productive
  • greater danger of heat exhaustion
  • more difficult to attract staff
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Possible Impacts of Climate Change

More storm damage:

  • more flooding and associated stock and

infrastructure losses

  • more erosion
  • more transport disruptions
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Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework

Climate Change Risk Assessment & Adaptation Framework

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Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework

www.climatechange.gov.au

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Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework

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Risk Priority Levels

The Risk Matrix

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Perception of Risk

Station owners/managers perception of risk to climate change is influenced by:

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Perception of Risk

Station owners/managers perception of risk to climate change is influenced by:

  • Their own belief in climate change (30% of those

surveyed were either unsure, or believed that climate change was not real)

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Perception of Risk

Station owners/managers perception of risk to climate change is influenced by:

  • Their own belief in climate change (30% of those

surveyed were either unsure, or believed that climate change was not real)

  • The current condition of their station (condition of

vegetation, fences, yards, water supplies etc)

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Perception of Risk

Station owners/managers perception of risk to climate change is influenced by:

  • Their own belief in climate change (30% of those

surveyed were either unsure, or believed that climate change was not real)

  • The current condition of their station (condition of

vegetation, fences, yards, water supplies etc)

  • Economic state of the business
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Perception of Risk

Station owners/managers perception of risk to climate change is influenced by:

  • Their own belief in climate change (30% of those

surveyed were either unsure, or believed that climate change was not real)

  • The current condition of their station (condition of

vegetation, fences, yards, water supplies etc)

  • Economic state of the business
  • Proximity to recent events (eg. exceptionally good
  • r bad years, floods, droughts etc)
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Murchison Results

Murchison Risk Assessment Results

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Risk Prioritisation

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Risk Prioritisation

Highest priority climate change risks as perceived by

  • wners/managers of 13 individual stations:

1.The need to destock due to drought 2.More intensive stock management required 3.Impacts of heat stress on livestock

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Risk Prioritisation

  • 4. Loss and/or reduced growth of native

vegetation

  • 5. Erosion
  • 6. Heat stress in humans

(See Nash/Bond report for complete list of risk priorities)

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Risk Treatment

Climate Change Risk Treatment

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Principles of Good Risk Treatment

Principle Explanation

Manage priority climate change risks Risk treatment process should focus on high priority risks

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Principles of Good Risk Treatment

Principle Explanation

Use adaptive management Put in place small, flexible, incremental changes based on regular monitoring and revision

  • f plans using information

available at the time. (Adaptive management contrasts markedly with highly limiting alternative approaches such as relying on one-off, large scale treatments.)

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Principles of Good Risk Treatment

Principle Explanation

Look for win-win or no-regrets treatment options Win-win treatments refer to measures that address the targeted climate change risk whilst also having other environmental, social or economic benefits No-regrets treatments are measures that should be undertaken anyway, regardless

  • f whether climate change is an

issue

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Principles of Good Risk Treatment

Principle Explanation

Review your treatment strategy Regularly review the climate change risk treatment strategy as part of a planned monitoring and review cycle.

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Examples of Risk Treatment

Note: In the context of the risk assessment framework, adaptation

  • ptions/actions may include technologies that do not yet exist

– e.g. “heat tolerant livestock breeds” “remotely controlled gates and watering points”

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Examples of Risk Treatment

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An Adaptation Action Plan

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Conclusions

Conclusions!

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Conclusions

Pastoralists need to prepare for a future that is:

  • hotter
  • drier (most significant rainfall reduction in

winter/spring)

  • with less frequent but more intense rain events
  • with greater seasonal variability
  • and with greater frequency of drought
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Conclusions

To adapt, pastoralists will need to begin planning and implementing adaptation measures that address:

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Conclusions

To adapt, pastoralists will need to begin planning and implementing adaptation measures that address:

Improved ability to predict and react in a planned and timely way to changing seasonal conditions, especially drought:

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Conclusions

To adapt, pastoralists will need to begin planning and implementing adaptation measures that address:

Improved ability to predict and react in a planned and timely way to changing seasonal conditions, especially drought:

  • use of seasonal forecasting
  • monitoring condition of animals and

vegetation

  • subdividing country into management units
  • amend legislation to create greater flexibility

to self-regulate stock levels

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Conclusions

To adapt, pastoralists will need to begin planning and implementing adaptation measures that address:

Increasing the understanding of how the ecosystems of the rangelands are likely to alter in the face of climate change:

  • lobbying DEC, DAFWA, CSIRO to undertake

research

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Conclusions

To adapt, pastoralists will need to begin planning and implementing adaptation measures that address:

Spreading the risk:

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Conclusions

To adapt, pastoralists will need to begin planning and implementing adaptation measures that address:

Spreading the risk:

  • diversification
  • off-farm income
  • less climate-dependent enterprises
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Conclusions

To adapt, pastoralists will need to begin planning and implementing adaptation measures that address:

Need for station managers/staff to work in harsher conditions:

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Conclusions

To adapt, pastoralists will need to begin planning and implementing adaptation measures that address:

Need for station managers/staff to work in harsher conditions:

  • trap yards
  • remote controlled/monitored water points
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Conclusions

To adapt, pastoralists will need to begin planning and implementing adaptation measures that address:

More frequent severe fire conditions:

  • protect infrastructure
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Conclusions

To adapt, pastoralists will need to begin planning and implementing adaptation measures that address:

More intense rain events and more severe cyclones:

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Conclusions

To adapt, pastoralists will need to begin planning and implementing adaptation measures that address:

More intense rain events and more severe cyclones:

  • maintain cover to prevent erosion
  • maintain ability to move stock
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My Advice Operate on the precautionary principle – Assume climate change is real!!

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My Advice

Plan ahead

  • Seek advice of experts
  • Collaborate with other pastoralists where it

makes sense

  • Make incremental changes early, not

wholesale changes later

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My Advice

Monitor and Review

  • monitor changes at station scale (may need help to

differentiate long term changes from seasonal variability)

  • regularly, and in a planned and structured way, review

your future plans, including latest climate change projections

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Thanks