Perspective on State Economic and Fiscal Issues Henry Sobanet - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting

Perspective on State Economic and Fiscal Issues

Henry Sobanet Office of State Planning and Budgeting

Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting

Colorado Leading and Coincident Economic Indices

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• 5.0
• 4.0
• 3.0
• 2.0
• 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Coincident Economic Activity Index for Colorado, July 1992=100, Six-Month % Change, Seasonally Adjusted Leading Index for Colorado Six Months Ahead, Percent, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted

Great Recession Percent

Pickup in economic growth is projected to continue.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting

Drilling Rigs in Colorado and Oil Prices

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Source: Baker Hughes and U.S. Federal Reserve

Source: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration

$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 CO Rig Count (Left Axis) WTI Spot Price (Right Axis)

Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting

Selected Major Demands on FY 2017-18 General Fund Resources, Available New Revenue, and Funding Gap (millions of dollars)

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Item Amount Source of Requirement

K-12 New Enrollment and Inflation $370.3 State Constitution / State Statute TABOR Rebate $135.1 State Constitution Repay Budget Reserve from FY 2016-17 $260.4 State Statute / Policy Goal S.B. 09-228 Transportation and Capital Transfers $163.7 State Statute New Medicaid Costs $141.8 Federal / State Statute TOTAL $1,071.3 Available New General Fund Revenue $374.7 Minimum Funding Gap $696.6

Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting

A TABOR Illustration

TABOR Limit TABOR Refund General Fund Cash Funds Income and Sales taxes Fees 5

Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting

State of Colorado FY 2017-18 General Fund Request (In Millions) and Percent of Total

K-12 Education $3,965.5 36% Higher Education $898.1 8% Health Care Policy/Financing $2,797.2 26% Human Services $865.6 8% Public Safety/Courts $1,399.2 13% All Other Spending $767.4 7% GF for Capital Construction $88.5 1% GF Transfer to HUTF $79.0 1%

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Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting

K-12 Total Program Funding

3 7 $660 $522 $603 $769 $680 $520 $374 $368 $2,672 $2,852 $2,985 $3,181 $3,299 $3,592 $3,790 $3,927 $1,901 $1,918 $1,976 $1,983 $2,260 $2,281 $2,451 $2,281 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 FY 2011- 12 FY 2012- 13 FY 2013- 14 FY 2014- 15 FY 2015- 16 FY 2016- 17 FY 2017- 18 NOV 1 FY 2017- 18 JAN 15 Millions of Dollars State Ed Fund & Public School Fund General Fund Local Share

Funding Level without Negative Factor