PERSONAL TRANSPORTATION Dr. J. Gary Smyth Executive Director North - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Driving the FUTURE OF PERSONAL TRANSPORTATION

• Dr. J. Gary Smyth

Executive Director North America Research Labs GM Research & Development

University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute “Focus on the Future” Automotive Research Conferences “Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century: Looking Beyond 2016” July 14, 2010

New U.S. Fuel Economy Standard

Final Rules (2012-2016 MODEL YEARS):

• Harmonizes National Greenhouse Gas Program

(EPA responsibility) and Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards (NHTSA responsibility)

• Requires a US fleet average fuel economy of 35.5

mpg (250 g CO2 per mile) by 2016 model year

• Benefits consumers by getting cleaner, more

efficient vehicles on the road quicker and more affordably

• Benefits the environment through reduced CO2

emissions

• Benefits the auto industry by having more

consistency and certainty to guide our product and technology plans

GM is fully committed to the new EPA Green House Gas rules to improve vehicle fuel economy and lower emissions

24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

COMBINED FLEET AVERAGE "EFFECTIVE" FUEL ECONOMY (MPG) MODEL YEAR

U.S.EFFECTIVE CAFE

Current Regulations

35.5

Global Energy Consumption to 2030 -The projections in 2006

Oil

 2006: 85MBD

1,000 barrels/second !

 2030: 120 MBD projected  50% used for

transportation

 Transportation is 96%

dependent on petroleum

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 World Energy Consumption (MBDOE) Renewables Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Oil Transportation

Source: DOE-EIA 2006

Global Energy Consumption to 2030 -The projections in 2006

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 World Energy Consumption (MBDOE) Renewables Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Oil Transportation

Source: DOE-EIA 2006

2008 Update (IEA)

 2008: 86MBD  2030: 106MBD

projected

World Oil Demand at Different Oil Intensities

Oil Intensity Barrels/Person/Year Global Oil Demand at this Oil Intensity Million Barrels Per Day (MBD) In 2010 In 2020 In 2030 25.2 (US 2007) 455 524 572  Economic Development 14.3 (Japan 2007) 259 300 325 10 181 210 227 6 109 125 136 4.76 (World 2007) 86 99 108  Population Growth

Source: Historical data from IEA and US Bureau of the Census data

20 40 60 80 100 120 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 MBD

1% Demand Growth 0% Demand Growth 4% Decline Rate 7% Decline Rate 4%-7% Production Decline 0%-1% Demand Growth Required New Capacity 2020 30-50 MBD 2030 40-75 MBD

Significant new Capacity is Required to make up for Declines in Existing Capacity!

“Needing 6 new Saudi Arabias by 2030”!

Source: IEA World Energy outlook, 2008

Impact of Urbanization and Traffic Congestion

 Over the next decades, all of the

world’s population growth will be in urban areas, with Asia and Africa accounting for 90% of the growth

 By 2030, urban areas are

projected to account for 60% of the population and greater than 80%

• f the wealth

 Implications for transportation

systems:

• Personal vs. mass

transportation

• Low-/zero-emission capability
• Growth of “Urban Vehicles”

Population (billions)

World Total Population World Urban Population World Rural Population

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 8 6 4 2

Urban areas account for 50 % of world’s population, but 80% of the world’s wealth

Source: UN

By2020:

• 27 Mega Cities (>10M)
• 9 Hyper Cities (> 20M)

Source: Mats Andersson, World Bank (2005)

London’s population density profile

kilometers from city center people / square kilometer

Source: Mats Andersson, World Bank (2005)

New York’s population density profile

kilometers from city center people / square kilometer

kilometers from city center people / square kilometer

Source: Mats Andersson, World Bank (2005)

Shanghai’s population density profile

GM Strategy: Displace Petroleum Through Energy Diversity & Efficiency

ENERGY OPTIONS

Advanced Propulsion Technology Strategy

Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition Downsized Boosting

Cylinder Pressure Sensing

Fuel Injector s ECU EGR Turbo Cylinder Pressure Sensor

Achieve the maximum fuel economy and the minimum emissions potential for a diverse range of application through synergistic integration of building block technologies

Electrification

Charge Boosting, Charge Dilution, Active Sensing, and Electrification will be the focus in the future

Advanced IC Engines

Gasoline Engine Technology Roadmap

Gasoline engines will use building block technologies

Numbers are estimates and not additive

Fuel Economy Improvement Alternative Fuels Time

Integrated Hybrid ICE

Baseline

Dual Cam Phaser (OHC)

AFM (OHV)

3-5%

Extended AFM Stoichiometric SIDI

7-10%

SIDI Downsize Boosted

5-9%

Lean + Neutral Idle 2-step Var. Valvetrain

Dual Cam Phaser (OHV)

12-18%

SIDI Boosted Hybrid (BAS)

10-15%

Stratified Charge HCCI

• Adv. Var. Valvetrain

Cooled EGR High CR Boosted Hybrid (BAS) Boosted Hybrid (BAS) Stratified Charge Boosted Hybrid (BAS) HCCI

Electrification

Diesel Engines –

Achieving the Lowest Emissions

Cylinder Pressure Sensing Base Engine Technologies Advanced Boosting with Small Displacement

LP Turbo HP Turbo

• High Pressure

Injection

• Lower

Compression Ratios

• Higher Peak

Cylinder Pressure

Diesel Particulate Filter

Porous Cell Wall

NOX Aftertreatment PCCI Combustion

1 2 3 4 5 6

Equivalence Ratio (f)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Temperature (K)

PCCI Combustion Conventional Combustion

soot zone

NOX Zone

Oxidation Catalyst Urea Injection SCR Urea NOx Catalyst Particulate Filter Fuel Injectors ECU EGR Turbo Cylinder Pressure Sensor

Transmission Technology Roadmap

Building block technologies for automatic transmissions

Numbers are estimates and not additive

Fuel Economy Improvement Time

Baseline

Current Production 6-speed AT

5%

Aggressive Shift/TCC Thermal Management Reduced Spin Loss Low Viscosity ATF Downsized Pump

5.5%

Neutral Idle Controlled Lube

6.5%

Variable K-factor TC Selectable OWC

10-12%

7-speed Dry DCT

Optimized Operating Points Lower Loses and Improved Efficiency Architecture Change Trans Enablers for Start/Stop

GM Hybrid & Electric Vehicles

RWD 2-Mode Hybrid FWD 2-Mode Hybrid 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2006 EREV GM Hybrid GM-Allison Hybrid

GM/Allison Hybrid Bus Tahoe/Yukon Escalade Silverado/Sierra Saturn VUE Green Line 2-Mode Shanghai GM Buick LaCrosse Eco-Hybrid Saturn AURA Green Line Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid Plug-in Volt E-REV Saturn VUE Green Line

GM Hybrid System

Stop/start Boost assist Opportunity charging Deceleration fuel cutoff Regenerative braking Automatic transmission 10%-25% FE gain Most Affordable

Aura Green Line 36-volt, 0.6 kW-Hr NiMH Battery Power Electronics 5 kW electric motor/generator 170 Hp 2.4L L4 Engine VUE Green Line Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid Buick LaCrosse Eco-Hybrid

2-Mode RWD Hybrid System

GMC Yukon 2-Mode Hybrid

2-Mode Transmission Two 60 kW Electric Motors 300V, 1.8 kW-Hr NiMH Battery Power Electronics System

Chevrolet Tahoe 2-Mode Hybrid

332 hp / 367 lb-ft 6.0L V8 Engine

50% city fuel economy improvement City fuel economy equal to 4-cyl Camry Tow up to 6,200 pounds

2-Mode FWD Hybrid System

2009 Saturn VUE Green Line Up to 50% fuel economy improvement Exceptional fuel economy and performance Provide the basis for PHEV capability

2-Mode Transmission Two 55 kW Electric Motors 300V, 2.2 kW-Hr NiMH Battery Power Electronics System 260 Hp, 3.6L SIDI V6 Engine

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Biofuels Technology Roadmap

1st Generation 3rd Generation 4th Generation 2nd Generation “Gen 1.5” Feedstock: Sugars, Starch  Cellulose Feedstock: Oil-seed / Waste Lipids  Algae Cassava Sweet Sorghum Sugarcane Corn Sugarbeet, … Fuels and Conversion Products Designer bacteria convert CO2 directly to final fuel products Ethanol FAME Biodiesel* Jatropha Camellina etc. Ethanol Grasses Wood biomass Cellulosic Waste Biomass-to- Liquids (FT) Designer energy crops Algae Alcohol s Biocrude to Refinery Pyrolysis final fuels Green hydro- carbons Bio-oil to Green Fuels Alcoho ls Hydro-treated Biodiesel Soybeans Palm oil Rapeseed Tallow Waste veg. oil

26

 GM is committed to the rapid commercialization of “The Next Generation of Ethanol”  GM has announced strategic alliances with two leading cellulosic ethanol start-ups, Coskata and Mascoma, that cover the biothermal and biochemical spectrum in advanced biofuel technology  Partnership is about accelerating putting next generation

• f cellulosic ethanol on the market

27

Coskata’s Leading Feedstock Flexible Ethanol Process

3-Step Process is efficient, affordable, feedstock flexible:

• 1. Incoming material

is converted into a synthesis gas by gasification

• 2. The synthesis gas

is fermented to ethanol using bacteria

• 3. Ethanol is

separated and recovered using membrane technology

28

Coskata's Technology: Flexible and Affordable

 Able to use multiple non-food based products around the globe

For example…

 Will produce ethanol that will be competitive with gasoline,

unsubsidized in the long term



Yields over 100 gal/dry ton biomass of fuel grade ethanol



Returns up to 7.7 times as much fossil energy as what is used to produce the fuel



Uses less than one gallon of fresh water per gallon of ethanol



Reduces green house gas emissions by up to 96%

Municipal and Industrial Wastes Wood Waste Grasses/Energy Crops

29

GM Sandia 90-Billion Gallon Biofuel Deployment Study

Distribution Conversion Storage and Transport Feedstock

Joint project conducted by GM and Sandia National Laboratories is the first true value- chain approach to future large-scale biofuels Can Large-Scale Biofuels Provide a Real and Sustainable Solution to Reducing Petroleum Dependence?

• 1. What must happen to grow ethanol production to 90B gal by 2030?
• 2. What is required for cellulosic ethanol to be cost competitive with gasoline?
• 3. What are the associated greenhouse gas, energy, and water footprints?
• 4. What risks could impact cellulosic ethanol’s production and competitiveness

goals and how can we mitigate these?

No land use change for residues equals 2006 corn ethanol acreage 44 M acres cropland as pasture and idle cropland 40 M acres non- grazed forest land

2030 land use

Biomass for 90 billion gallons of ethanol can be produced largely without reducing current active cropland

SRWC: Short Rotation Woody Crop

ENERGY OPTIONS

GM EN-V CONCEPTS FOR 2010 WORLD EXPO IN SHANGHAI (“BETTER CITY, BETTER LIFE”)

ORDINARY DRIVERS

5,000

MILES LOGGED

1,300,000

Diverse Customer Needs

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Chevrolet Equinox – at Work

Customer Expectations: No Compromises

Production Intent Design

Fuel Cell Propulsion System

PRODUCTION-INTENT FUEL CELL SYSTEM (FCS)

¶ Half the size, 220 pounds lighter, and uses

~third of the platinum in Equinox FCS

¶ Compared to internal combustion

engine:

– Twice as efficient – Promises equivalent durability, range (300 miles), and performance – 60% fewer part numbers – 90% fewer moving parts – Similar refueling time (~3 minutes)

Hydrogen Infrastructure

Los Angeles Example

$100-200 million H2 infrastructure investment opens 15 million driver market 10 stations ~25 miles apart on destination corridors

• San Diego
• Palm Springs
• Las Vegas
• Santa Barbara

30-40 stations ~3.6 miles apart

• Los Angeles Metro Area

Regional H2 infrastructures can be achieved with 40-50 stations in metro areas & along major destination corridors

Examples - Hydrogen Infrastructure in Deployment Germany beginning infrastructure installations (1,000 H2 stations), supporting Daimler’s 2013 & 2015 production fuel cell programs Japan announced infrastructure & vehicle deployment plans (1,000 H2 stations & 2 Million vehicles by 2025)

Advanced Propulsion Technology Strategy

Thank You For Your Attention