Driving the FUTURE OF PERSONAL TRANSPORTATION Dr. J. Gary Smyth Executive Director North America Research Labs GM Research & Development University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute “Focus on the Future” Automotive Research Conferences “ Powertrain Strategies for the 21 st Century: Looking Beyond 2016” July 14, 2010
New U.S. Fuel Economy Standard GM is fully committed to the new EPA Green House Gas rules to improve vehicle fuel economy and lower emissions Final Rules (2012-2016 MODEL YEARS): 40 U.S.EFFECTIVE CAFE 39 • Harmonizes National Greenhouse Gas Program 38 (EPA responsibility) and Corporate Average Fuel 37 Economy (CAFE) Standards (NHTSA responsibility) 35.5 COMBINED FLEET AVERAGE "EFFECTIVE" FUEL ECONOMY (MPG) 36 • Requires a US fleet average fuel economy of 35.5 35 34 mpg (250 g CO 2 per mile) by 2016 model year 33 • Benefits consumers by getting cleaner, more 32 efficient vehicles on the road quicker and more 31 affordably 30 29 • Benefits the environment through reduced CO2 28 emissions 27 • Benefits the auto industry by having more 26 Current Regulations 25 consistency and certainty to guide our product 24 and technology plans 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 MODEL YEAR
Global Energy Consumption to 2030 -The projections in 2006 400.0 Oil Renewables 350.0 Nuclear World Energy Consumption (MBDOE) 2006: 85MBD Coal 300.0 Natural Gas 1,000 barrels/second ! Oil 250.0 2030: 120 MBD projected 200.0 50% used for transportation 150.0 Transportation is 96% 100.0 dependent on petroleum 50.0 Transportation 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: DOE-EIA 2006
Global Energy Consumption to 2030 -The projections in 2006 400.0 Renewables 350.0 Nuclear World Energy Consumption (MBDOE) Coal 300.0 Natural Gas 2008 Update (IEA) Oil 250.0 2008: 86MBD 200.0 2030: 106MBD 150.0 projected 100.0 50.0 Transportation 0.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source: DOE-EIA 2006
World Oil Demand at Different Oil Intensities Global Oil Demand at this Oil Intensity Million Barrels Per Day (MBD) Oil Intensity Barrels/Person/Year In 2010 In 2020 In 2030 25.2 (US 2007) 455 524 572 Development Economic 14.3 (Japan 2007) 259 300 325 10 181 210 227 6 109 125 136 4.76 (World 2007) 86 99 108 Population Growth Source: Historical data from IEA and US Bureau of the Census data
Significant new Capacity is Required to make up for Declines in Existing Capacity! 120 1% Demand Growth 0% Demand Growth 100 4% Decline Rate 7% Decline Rate 0%-1% Demand Growth 80 Required New 2020 2030 “Needing 6 new MBD Capacity 30-50 MBD 40-75 MBD 60 Saudi Arabias by 2030”! 4%-7% Production Decline 40 20 0 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Source: IEA World Energy outlook, 2008
Impact of Urbanization and Traffic Congestion Over the next decades, all of the world’s population growth will be in urban areas, with Asia and Africa World Total Population accounting for 90% of the growth World Urban Population 8 World Rural Population By 2030, urban areas are Urban areas account projected to account for 60% of the for 50 % of world’s population and greater than 80% population, but 6 80% of the of the wealth Population (billions) world’s wealth Implications for transportation Source: UN 4 systems: ● Personal vs. mass 2 transportation ● Low-/zero-emission capability ● Growth of “Urban Vehicles” 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
By2020: - 27 Mega Cities (>10M) - 9 Hyper Cities (> 20M)
London’s population density profile people / square kilometer kilometers from city center Source: Mats Andersson, World Bank (2005)
New York’s population density profile people / square kilometer kilometers from city center Source: Mats Andersson, World Bank (2005)
Shanghai’s population density profile people / square kilometer kilometers from city center Source: Mats Andersson, World Bank (2005)
GM Strategy: Displace Petroleum Through Energy Diversity & Efficiency
ENERGY OPTIONS
Advanced Propulsion Technology Strategy
Advanced IC Engines Achieve the maximum fuel economy and the minimum emissions potential for a diverse range of application through synergistic integration of building block technologies Cylinder Homogeneous Charge Downsized Electrification Pressure Sensing Compression Ignition Boosting ECU Cylinder EGR Turbo Pressure Sensor Fuel Injector s Charge Boosting, Charge Dilution, Active Sensing, and Electrification will be the focus in the future
Gasoline Engine Technology Roadmap Electrification Integrated Boosted Hybrid ICE Hybrid (BAS) Stratified Charge Fuel Economy Improvement Alternative Fuels Boosted Hybrid (BAS) HCCI Cooled EGR High CR Boosted Hybrid (BAS) SIDI Boosted Hybrid (BAS) 12-18% SIDI Downsize 10-15% Boosted Stratified Charge 7-10% 5-9% HCCI Lean + Neutral Idle 3-5% Adv. Var. Valvetrain 2-step Var. Valvetrain Baseline Stoichiometric SIDI Dual Cam Phaser (OHV) Extended AFM Dual Cam Phaser (OHC) AFM (OHV) Time Gasoline engines will use building block technologies Numbers are estimates and not additive
Diesel Engines – Achieving the Lowest Emissions Base Engine Advanced Boosting with Cylinder Technologies Small Displacement Pressure Sensing • High Pressure HP ECU Injection Turbo • Lower Cylinder EGR Turbo Pressure Compression Ratios Sensor • Higher Peak LP Fuel Turbo Cylinder Pressure Injectors PCCI Combustion NO X Aftertreatment Diesel Particulate Filter 6 Equivalence Ratio (f) Oxidation 5 Catalyst soot zone 4 Porous Cell 3 Wall Conventional Combustion 2 PCCI Combustion Particulate 1 Filter NO X Zone SCR Urea 0 Urea 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 500 NO x Catalyst Injection Temperature (K)
Transmission Technology Roadmap Architecture Change Trans Enablers for Start/Stop Fuel Economy Improvement Lower Loses and Improved Efficiency Optimized Operating Points Downsized Pump 10-12% Low Viscosity ATF Controlled Lube 7-speed Dry DCT Reduced Spin Loss Neutral Idle Thermal Management Aggressive Shift/TCC 6.5% 5.5% 5% Selectable OWC Variable K-factor TC Current Production 6-speed AT Baseline Time Building block technologies for automatic transmissions Numbers are estimates and not additive
GM Hybrid & Electric Vehicles 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 GM-Allison GM/Allison Hybrid Bus Hybrid Saturn VUE Green Line GM Saturn AURA Green Line Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid Hybrid Shanghai GM Buick LaCrosse Eco-Hybrid Tahoe/Yukon RWD Escalade 2-Mode Hybrid Silverado/Sierra Saturn VUE FWD Green Line 2-Mode 2-Mode Hybrid Plug-in Volt E-REV EREV
GM Hybrid System 170 Hp 2.4L L4 Engine Power Stop/start Electronics Boost assist Opportunity charging 36-volt, 0.6 kW-Hr Aura NiMH Battery Green Line Deceleration fuel cutoff 5 kW electric motor/generator Regenerative braking Automatic transmission Buick LaCrosse Eco-Hybrid 10%-25% FE gain VUE Most Affordable Chevrolet Green Line Malibu Hybrid
2-Mode RWD Hybrid System GMC Yukon 2-Mode Hybrid Chevrolet Tahoe 2-Mode Hybrid 50% city fuel economy improvement 300V, 1.8 kW-Hr NiMH Battery Power City fuel economy Electronics 2-Mode System equal to 4-cyl Camry Transmission 332 hp / 367 Two 60 kW lb-ft Tow up to 6,200 pounds Electric Motors 6.0L V8 Engine
2-Mode FWD Hybrid System 2009 Saturn VUE Green Line Up to 50% fuel economy improvement Exceptional fuel economy and performance Power Electronics System Provide the basis for PHEV capability 300V, 2.2 kW-Hr NiMH Battery 260 Hp, 3.6L 2-Mode Transmission SIDI V6 Two 55 kW Electric Motors Engine
Biofuels Technology Roadmap 1 st Generation 2 nd Generation 3 rd Generation 4 th Generation “Gen 1.5” Feedstock: Sugars, Starch Cellulose Sugarcane Grasses Designer Corn Wood biomass energy Cassava Sugarbeet , … Cellulosic Sweet Sorghum crops Waste Designer Green Biocrude Pyrolysis Ethanol Ethanol Alcohol bacteria hydro- to Refinery final fuels s convert CO2 Fuels and Conversion Products carbons directly to Hydro-treated Biomass-to- final fuel FAME Bio-oil to Alcoho Biodiesel Liquids (FT) products Biodiesel* Green Fuels ls Soybeans Jatropha Algae Palm oil Camellina Rapeseed etc. Tallow Feedstock: Oil-seed / Waste Lipids Algae Waste veg. oil 25
GM is committed to the rapid commercialization of “The Next Generation of Ethanol” GM has announced strategic alliances with two leading cellulosic ethanol start-ups, Coskata and Mascoma, that cover the biothermal and biochemical spectrum in advanced biofuel technology Partnership is about accelerating putting next generation of cellulosic ethanol on the market 26
Coskata’s Leading Feedstock Flexible Ethanol Process 3-Step Process is efficient, affordable, feedstock flexible: 1. Incoming material is converted into a synthesis gas by gasification 2. The synthesis gas is fermented to ethanol using bacteria 3. Ethanol is separated and recovered using membrane technology 27
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