Pedestrians and alcohol, how to manage all the problems; an - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pedestrians and alcohol, how to manage all the problems; an engineers view

ICTCT, Stellenbosch, April 4 2013

Christer Hydén, Lund University (christer.hyden@tft.lth.se)

Alcohol in traffic is a huge problem!

• Low exposure High risks
• The proportion of impaired drivers in traffic is quite small,

but the number of impaired drivers killed is much higher.

• In Sweden: 0,2% impaired drivers but more than 25%

involved in fatal crashes

• Also pedestrians are hit by impaired drivers
• But pedestrians can also be impaired; . In a study in

Australia, of those pedestrians fatally injured approximately 45% were intoxicated or ‘drink walking’, In London the same proportion was 23%.

Pedestrians is another!

• Extremely vulnerable – especially elderly

(average age among killed pedestrians in Sweden is around 65 years)

• Are not ”compatible” with car drivers (kinetic

energy difference when a car meets a pedestrian:

1900 times)

• No ”walking license”
• Are not road users in a ”normal sense”, at the

same time as they have to act as any other road user

• They are everything from flaneurs to commuters

Total no. killed pedestrians annually: 412,000

X Africa Sub-Region: 55% X Sub-region of the Americas:<15% X EurA: <15%

• Low-income countries: 45%
• Middle-income countries: 29%
• High-income countries: 18%

Exposure is one important factor; In e.g. the US walking as a mode of transport very uncommon

Proportion of Pedestrians killed varies a lot

Pedestrians and alcohol in combination is a disaster

• Drivers are overrepresented in alcohol related severe

accidents – is also valid for accidents where pedestrians are the victim

• Pedestrians are overrepresented in severe accidents

where the pedestrian is impaired

• To be an impaired road user – pedestrian or driver – is

degrading your performance in many ways; poor judgement, increased reaction time, lower vigilance and decreased visual acuity

Impaired pedestrians are:

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Alla Berusade %

Skadegrad berusade fotgängare

MAIS 1 MAIS 2 MAIS 3+

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85 % km/tim

Uppskattad påkörningshastighet i olyckor med berusad fotgängare jmf alla olyckor

alla berusade

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

• 14

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 94- %

Andel berusade fotgängare per ålder

alla berusade

Younger than average More seriously injured Hit at higher speeds

From: Fotgängarolyckor, 2010-01-21, IF Försäkring

Even though the message is striking!

!.there is only one universal solution There is only one safe way of controlling for all these ”deficiencies” at the same time; low speeds

Drinking and driving is considered much more serious among the public than speeding, but in terms of ”fatality production” it is the

• pposite

Comparing Relative risks of Involvement in a Casualty Crash for Speed and Alcohol

From: TRAVELLING SPEED AND THE RISK OF CRASH INVOLVMENT, Volume 1: Findings. Kloeden CN, McLean AJ, Moore VM, Ponte G, NHMRC Road Accident Research Unit, The University of Adelaide

1/ Sanctions in Sweden: Above 0,10 g/100ml: Drunken driving renders maximum 2 years imprisonment. withdrawal of the license: up to two years http://www.mhf.se/sv-SE/rattfylleri/info-om-

rattfylleri/lag-och-straff/

2/ Sanctions in Sweden: More than 20 kph above: Fine; Maximum 2800SEK (corresponding to 2 days salary). More than +40 kph: Sent to prosecutor.

Speed (km/h) Speed

• Rel. Risk

Alcohol (g/100ml) Alcohol

• Rel. Risk

60 (speed limit) 1.0 Zero 1.0 + 5 2.0 0.05 1.8 + 10 4.2 0.08 3.2 +15 10.6 0.12 7.1 +202/ 31.8 0.211/ 30.4

From: Swedish Traffic safety survey, 2011 Not drink and drive Keep the speed limitl

As just said: Drinking and driving is considered more serious than speeding – so is even belt use!

Swedish survey 2011: What are the three most important behaviours from a safety point of view? (%)

N

• t

d r i v i n g a g a i n s t r e d l i g h t Using safety belt Fatigue Mobile phone Keep distance Bicycle helmet

Who has taught us this lesson???

OK, but the car is becoming safer every year!.??

• Yes, but that is only for occupants of the car
• ESC – Electronic Stability Control is intervening with the

driving task by forced braking on individual tires when the speed is excessive (i.e. the tire(s) are loosing its grip), but no similar system that intervenes with the driving task when speed is excessive in relation to the speed limit

• ESC is reducing accidents significantly – but not for

pedestrians

Industry talks about active safety. Yes but how?

• Almost all new IT-systems deal with the operational phase
• f driving, i.e. ”the last two seconds” before a crash
• There are no systems that intervenes with the tactical part
• f driving
• Especially true regarding speed adaptation
• Big investments in vehicle measures, unfortunately not

based on ”societal demands”

• However, EuroNcap does strong efforts to give points to

ISA, but very slow progress

• ”All sorts of planners” of the City need to get involved

”Soft measures is not enough”

Example 1, soft2: When speed limit in Sweden was lowered from 10 kph, from 40 to 30 kph, the actual speed was lowered by a bit more than 2 kph. Example 2, soft to hard:

Introduction of a zebra crossing ==> + 44% (-6; +121)

(injuries)

Raised zebra crossing ==> - 42% (-70; +11)

(injuries)

But how can we convince the decision makers? They don’t dare to ”overrule” the public

Relationship between support for stronger policy interventions and fatality risk attributable to selected road safety problems in Norway

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent who support stronger policy interventions Population attributable risk for fatalities Speeding Drinking and driving Pedestrian accidents in dark Cyclist accidents

From: A METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO THE EVALUATION OF ROAD SAFETY POLICIES, European Transport Safety Council, Brussels 2006

Traffic Calming is a necessary first step */

• Works immediately
• Works in small scale

The effect of a hump on injury accidents. Meta analysis by Rune Elvik et al): -40%. Larger reductions the more injuries are

• Works in large scale

In Gothenburg killed and severly injured pedestrians havdropped by 50% for pedestrians and by 70% for cyclists. Mainly thanks to traffic calming

• Power of endurance
• Could solve a lot of existing problems
• Design is, however, crucial

*/ [’Traffic calming refers to a combination of network planning and engineering measures to enhance road safety as well as other aspects of liveability for the citizens.’ Van Schagen (ed.; 2003) ]

Much has been done in highly motorised countries – but much is still to be done.. Humps and small roundabouts are the key elements

Bergen – more than 2000 humps Almost every street No markings

What about less motorised countries?

• Lots of humps
• Not very systematic so far
• Hesitance
• Often made by residents..
• Often counterargued – exactly the same

arguments as in Sweden 30 years ago

• .

Lots of – old and well-known counterarguments in the media

• The observer, Uganda: The biggest disappointment is the numerous road humps which have

been constructed in the many trading centres. These road humps spoil the otherwise good job done on the road. --- One would argue that these road humps are necessary for the safety of the residents in the trading centres. I think this is a wrong view.--- A good road is meant to get motorists from point A to point B safely and timely.

• TANZANIA Bureau of Standards (TBS) has completed new standards for road humps that

will be adopted by contractors undertaking road construction countrywide. The new procedures follow a call by the former Minister for Industries and Trade, Dr Cyril Chami, who advised the Bureau to work on the matter as studies had showed that the humps were major causes of road accidents.

• Times of India: Road humps are a pain in the back: Sunitha Rao R, TNN Sep 27, 2010,

12.11am IST BANGALORE: Road humps are not more just bulges of tar that create undulations on the surface of the road. They can injure your spine, sometimes beyond repair.

• BBC News: The Metropolitan Police has warned its response to emergency calls is

being hampered by road humps. It has been estimated that there are between 20,000 and 30,000 speed bumps in London,

• Road humps in Chennai to be cut to size: CHENNAI: Corporation of Chennai will

soon modify or remove more than 400 speed-breakers across the city. The decision follows a series of fatal accidents due to speed breakers built in violation of the rules. The corporation's move acquired urgency after state minister Sellur K Raju's son R Tamizhmani died of injuries after he was thrown off his bike when it hit a speed bump on NSC Bose Road

• n Sunday night

• In many African and Asian countries, hardly a day goes by when an

angry crowd does not attempt to lynch a driver or burn a vehicle involved in a crash with a pedestrian. On their own initiative, villagers have constructed thousands of "sleeping policemen" (speed humps) to slow down vehicles speeding through their

• neighbourhoods. (Bull World Health Organ vol.81 n.9 Genebra Sep. 2003

http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0042-96862003000900012. Dinesh Mohan: .Road traffic injuries a neglected pandemic. )

• First, the methods used to integrate pedestrians with vehicular traffic are

highlighted, namely through temporal separation (pedestrian crossings, school patrol crossings, traffic lights) and soft separation (traffic calming measures).

(Pedestrian Facilities in South Africa: Research and Practice. Hubrecht Ribbens1 Transportation Research Record. Volume 1538 / 1996)

But, what is the official view?

• Found no information
• Scientific material on humps is old

Traffic Calming Strategies to Improve Pedestrian Safety in India Empirical studies in Jaipur, India

• Seven sites
• November 2007 to October 2009
• Consumer Unity & Trust Society (CUTS) and Lund

University

• Comprehensive behavioural and conflict studies
• Route choice through intersections (all kinds of road

users)

• Speed studies

Study findings

• (All types of) road users follow the line of least resistance, i.e. they

cross wherever possible “chaos”

• Generally very low compliance with rules
• No “voluntary” yielding behaviour among vehicle drivers towards

pedestrians

• Children are as exposed as any other pedestrian
• Zebras wrongly located not used
• Number of serious pedestrian conflicts per hour seems to be in the

same range as in Sweden (3 compared with 2-3 per hour)

• Motorcycle drivers are not overrepresented in serious conflicts, rather

the contrary (bicycle conflicts)

• Conflicts occur everywhere geographically
• Excessive space

Even young children are exposed Conflicts everywhere Very low level of service for pedestrians

Conflict studies

• No reliable accident data
• Conflicts produced important information
• Difficult to ”export”
• Image processing is the future

Pedestrian and Bicycle conflicts at site no.15

Implications regarding pedestrians (1)

• Pedestrians are never ”awarded” by the system
• They need to be 100% alert all the time
• Road users are left without any incentives or physical

guidance on how to behave.

• The weakest (pedestrians) suffer most

Implications regarding pedestrians (2)

• To-day chaos often creates low speeds – and low risks.

But no guarantee – suddenly the speeds go up

• Chaos is not the optimal – or possible - way of reducing

speeds

• Things will go even (much) worse with new strong cars
• Desperate need for “order”, the only way towards some

kind of interaction and decent conditions for pedestrians

• Safe speeds should be the short- and long term goal
• Order demands limiting available space and Traffic

Calming

• We made a comprehensive try to come to field trials, but

failed

Hump – 3,6 m wide, circular top, 10 cm high at its peak, located 10-14 m in advance of the pedestrian crossing. Raised area for pedestrians Zebra crossing Raised Zebra crossing - Flat top, 5 m wide, 10 cm high, 1 m ramp

Our proposal

Traffic Calmed Standardised T- and Four Arm Intersection

Measures Suggested

Traffic Calming should be promising as humps produce similar speeds - “universally” (?)

Speeds at sites with comparative humps in Jaipur, India and Lund, Sweden

11

Humps also make it possible to reach different target speeds

Location Dimensions Road user Length (mm) Height (mm) Mean 85perc Near Temple 3048 89 Car 25 29 MC 27 33 Chinkara Canteen 3048 114 Car 22 26 MC 26 31 Near to BJP

• ffice

356 51 Car 20 24 MC 24 27 University Road 3962 89 Car 27 32 MC 31 37 Near to JNN (Tonk Rd.) 1422 76 Car 18 23 MC 24 27 Lalkothi 3759 114 Car 18 23 MC 22 28 4 seasons 2794 102 Car 19 24 MC 18 23 Jhotwara 3048 102 Car 16 19 MC 24 28 Collectorate 3759 102 Car 21 24 MC 22 26 Iddhagha* 635 76 Car <10 12

. Speeds at different speed reducing measures, Jaipur, India

12

Conclusions – Less motorised countries

• Our measures has not been tried YET, but effects
• n speeds seem to be similar with similar

measures

• Will Traffic Calming has the same safety effects

everywhere?

• OrG. does low(ered) speeds have the same

effects in e.g. India as in e.g. Sweden

• It can only be answered by large scale trials

Thika Highway in Kenya

The first motorway with speed reduction

• CH foton

Thika Highway in Kenya

• Super highway, completed year 2012
• 50 km long
• 6 lanes plus 2x2 service lanes
• Before the opening of the new super

highway around fifty (50!) pedestrians were killed in a year

• Provisions for pedestrians to-day: approx 6

bridges, 6 locations with bumps

My own observations/conclusions (1)

• To-day there is approx 2-4 km between each

bump – average speed between 5 and 10 km/h

• And approx 2-4 km between each foot-bridge
• Using these facilities make pedestrians

absolutely safe

• The equi-distance is long many pedestrians

are not using them. How many bridges are reasonable so that pedestrians/cyclists can be forced to use them

• Bumps are only temporary
• Bump locations work as spontaneous bus

stops

My own observations/conclusions (2)

• An ultimate case: to see how pedestrians

are ”treated” – and what can be done based

• n to-days values and preferences!
• Can bumps be prevailed at some locations,

to offer bus stops as a synergy? Equi- distance, speed?

• UNIQUE CASE - NEED TO BE

THOUROUGLY FOLLOWED UP.

There is a (slowly) moving trend towards lower speeds in cities

• EU adopts 30kph recommendation for residential areas
• European Citizen´s Initiative "30kmh – making streets

liveable!”

• The Department for Transport (DfT) has even endorsed

the installation of 20mph speed limits on busy main streets

• G. (“major streets where there are – or could be –

significant numbers of journeys on foot, GG.. and this

• utweighs the disadvantage of longer journey times for

motorised traffic”.

• Swedish Transport Authorities endorse 30 kph as a

maximum speed where pedestrian and bicyclists are interacting with cars

Very important to follow up on this trend

• Speed is a key factor in highly motorised

countries

• By far the most fundamental aspect
• It has an impact on almost all aspects related to

the welfare of citizens and societies as a whole

• I will present a scenario based on low speeds

A low speed scenario - context

• All imaginable effects of low speeds in cities
• Comparison of speeds from 60 to 20 km/h
• Maximum speeds – no one is exceeding
• Experiences from almost only industrialized

countries

• Will try to conclude on universal aspects

Travel speed and injury risk (1)

The power model and a new exponential function

(From: The new Traffic Safety Handbook, Elvik et al 2012)

1

Travel speed and injury risk (2)

• A decrease by 20% of the mean speed

results in a 40% reduction of fatalities

• If everybody in Sweden always complies with

the speed limits there would be 100-150 lives saved every year in Sweden år

http://www.trafikverket.se/Privat/Trafiksakerhet/Din-sakerhet-pa-vagen/Hastighet/Hur- farligt-ar-det-att-kora-for-fort/

• Real speeds of below 30 kph will most

probably lead to almost zero severe injuries

2

Feeling of safety - A pedestrian is not very strong – especially not at higher speeds6.

Kinetic energy relation:

Car in 50 km/h vs pedestrian in 5 km/h:

1900 to 1

Car in 20 km/h vs pedestrian in 5 km/h:

300 to 1

3

But low speeds help a lot...

Proportion of drivers yielding for and bicyclists at different approach speeds

4

Other implications of low speeds (maximum 20 – 30 kph)

• Noise is reduced – up to 13dB(A) between 50 and 20

kph

• With less need for acceleration and less air resistance

the demand for energy will be lower, however we need “city cars”

• Restrictions on car traffic often stimulate shopping

turnover

• Less cars lead to more peds and bicyclists lower

risks

• Mobility for pedestrians is highly improved – a new

type of freedom

• The need for road space is going down to half when

speed is lowered from 60 kph to 20 kph

5

The main drawback – travel times will increase

• But primarily for motorised traffic
• But how much longer? (Average speeds in cities are

maximum 25-30 km/h).

• Traffic signals can be removed reduced travel time
• An average city trip of 5 km per car will take 3-5 minutes

more

• Pedestrians and bicyclists will (always) gain time
• Drivers will ”forget the time aspect” and instead enjoy the

nice rythm (still primarily theory)

6

Conclusions – Low speeds

• Low speeds with a minimum of accelerations

and decelerations – the way towards a sustainable and attractive city!?

• The problems of drawing more firm conclusions

are simply because we have no “test bed”.

• There is no city that so far has produced a

comprehensive planning – and implementation -

• f traffic in towns, with priority for

environmentally friendly modes of transport.

7

• So6. Cities are still suffering
• Too much traffic and too high speeds.
• Politicians promote friendly modes of transport,

however6

• 6.. they are like everybody else, e.g. they say safety but

they never do safety

• The only exception; parents to small children
• We need to understand the history6.
• 6. And we need to look at the system in a new way

8

The history of motorisation

• Car explosion – no draw-backs, only benefits

and optimism

• We are ”seduced” by our fancy cars – and an

infrastructure that ”take up the competition”

• We have produced a ”high-speed society”

9

The infrastructure

The car

”0-100 kph in a whisper”

The late latest from BMW6.

They have changed the Speed Limiter:

From 250 km/h To 305 km/h!!

As a ”compensation” they offer a one day have course6. (skill courses have never produced positive safety effects!)

In fractions of a second we have become car drivers

• ----- 4.3

• 2 million years…………………………………………………………………….…………….. -0,000001 mill years

Driving to-day6

• We are sitting in our ”armchairs”, listening to

nice music, talking on the phone, at the same time as we are protected by ABS, ACC, AICC , ASR, BSD, CAS, DM, DSC, DSR, ESC, EDS, ESF, ESP, HBA, LDW, TSC, TPMS, NVS, NARVCW New Automatic Rear View Camera Washer), emergency braking, safety belt, air bags, alcolock, belt reminder, ISA, whiplash protection, stereo, mobile, dvd, Navigation System, etcetera

• What about the sustainable and safe city?

Implications

• Speed policy has been the most obvious laissez-fair

strategy.

• The scientific backing of 50 – and not 60 or 40 or 30 or

20 km/h - did not exist when speed limits were introduced

• There is no scientific back ground for the present

conclusions regarding appropriate speeds in our cities – especially seen in a sustainability context

• The norm to-day says that it is ok to override the

speed limits with at least 5-10%.

• Autosafe in Sweden pays your speeding tickets6
• Very unpleasant to comply with speed rules
• Cities need to do something now – otherwise they will

be extinguished

15

Universality

• My results are not directly universally

applicable, still my recommendation is: Do something with the speed problem before it is too late

16

Traffic calming is the first step

• Low and harmonised speeds can be reached – resulting

in significantly improved conditions

• Humps and small round-abouts are the key measures
• Negative mitigation seems likely; may be important

positive implications. (May change the scope of driving a car)

• Any target speed can be reached locally, however6
• 6. speeds without accelerations and decelerations can

not be reached without complementary vehicle measures

17

Vehicle measures

• Speed Limiter - a system that makes it

impossible to override the prevailing speed limit

• ISA-Intelligent Speed Adaptation - a

similar system but where overriding is possible if perceived necessary by the driver

18

Speed Limiter (SL) is ”replaced” by ISA in urban areas!

• Speed Limiter is not accepted – neither by

Governments nor industry

• We have invested too much in our high

performance cars

• But we have reached the peak in numbers

in many countries

19

6even though SL is much more effective than ISA

• 6.the Market Driven one is substantially outperformed

by the Authority Driven one. From: Lai et al. Accident Analysis & Prevention

Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 63–72)

Without SL With SL

General Conclusions

• We are slowly moving
• Great potential
• In the short run: combination of infrastructural and vehicle

measures

• More empirii
• We must demonstrate and describe and explain
• I think all the conclusions are as valid everywhere around

the globe. Traffic problems develop in the same way everywhere

• The (time)scale is different in different countries etc
• The earlier these ideas are introduced in Third World

Countries the easier it will be

21

Pedestrians must raise their voice – universally and univocally

22

Thank you 6. and best wishes

23