Pascal Vermeulen – pv@climact.com BARI, 10 November 2014
Agenda Context Selected modelling option : OPEERA Main findings What is the model for? From national calculators to Global calculator
Global context UNFCCC Canc ú n Agreements (December 2010): The Conference of the Parties, … 45. Decides that developed countries should develop low-carbon development strategies or plans ; EU European Council (February 2011): “Reaching the EU objective, in the context of necessary reductions according to the IPCC by developed countries as a group, of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 as agreed in October 2009 will require a revolution in energy systems, which must start now .”
Brown bag session on Climate Change - 9 October 2014 4
Belgium Projections and Reporting • BELGIUM is a federal state with 3 autonomous Regions and 3 communities • Bottom-up projections are based on a combination of models: • Flemish Region: new Flemish energy and greenhouse gas simulation model was developed in 2011 to build short term projections to be used in the Flemish Climate Policy Plan 2013-2020 • Walloon Region: EPM (Energy/Emissions Projection Model) is a projection model for energy demand and atmospheric emissions that covers all relevant emission sectors • Brussels Capital Region: Environment Brussels Energy Emissions Projections Model, projection model for energy demand and atmospheric emissions from stationary sources • Macro-economic projections (top-down) are used at national level: • HERMES + information from PRIMES. HERMES is the macrosectoral model used by the Belgian Federal Planning Bureau for its national short and medium term forecasts
Belgium. Modelling 2050: why? Objective #1: To contribute to the development of a Low Carbon Development strategy for Belgium by implying all key stakeholders • UNFCCC and EU Monitoring Mechanism Regulation requirement • This will require: – Coordination with Regional authorities – Further complementary analyses for the strategy to be very specific
Belgium. Modelling 2050: why? Objective #2: To foster the transition by providing key actors with a framework at the national level that is coherent with EU and international contexts • Many initiatives do exist – At different levels of public engagement (eg local authorities, citizens, companies) – In different fields (eg energy, food, sustainable development) • In the spirit of ‘transition management’
Agenda Context Selected modelling option : OPEERA Main findings What is the model for? From national calculators to Global calculator
OPEERA = Open Source Emission and Energy Roadmap Analysis This accounting model, like LEAP, is designed to explore possible pathways Transparency/ user friendly/ communication Accounting Coherency / OPEERA, interactions / Partial LEAP comprehensiveness equilibrium Macro- economic
The model allows to test key implications of a low carbon transition along 3 main dimensions GHG reductions Limits to and sustainable use of natural resources Some of the impacts on the landscape … Impact on the environ- nement Delta cost of the transition compared to reference Impact on the cost of Level of energy electricity independence Total investment Stability of the power Key criteria of requirements system the low Cost by citizen Risk of technology carbon Some impacts on the concentration scenarios quality of life … … Costs: Energy capex/opex/ security and views independence 10
What the model covers and does not cover Development of realist scenarios An iterative process, involving a lot of stakeholders What it covers An open-source model, flexible and dynamic The implications on investments and costs Identification of key decision points Shows no projection or privileged way The model does not optimize costs, but performed a detailed What it does not cover analysis No macro-economic and social analysis of the implications
OPEERA : Open-source Prospective Energy and Emissions Roadmap Analysis tool developed in collaboration with DECC UK Policies Historical data • EU or national legal constraints • Energy balance sheet • GHG Emissions • Demography • Primary and final energy demand • GDP • Electricity and heat • Drivers • GHG emissions • Cash flows • Energy flows • Energy security • Land surface usage Stake- holders • Workshops expertise • Consultations Source: DECC, Climact
OPEERA balances demand and supply based on fixed input parameters as well as modifiable levers -80 to -95% GHG emissions vs. 1990 Source: Climact
D E M A N D S U P P LY Conceptual view of the Heating (domestic and commercial) Hydrocarbon fuel power generation (+CCS) Pathways Commercial Commercial Comm. Temp. calculator Gas-fired power Building stock heaters behaviour Gas heat plants modeling Liquid Distribution and Liquid-fuel fired Gas boilers hydro- power plants storage 2 carbons Energy flow map. and suggested modules District Solid Solid-fuel fired Storage technology heating hydro- power plants I carbons Domest. Domestic Heat pumps Housing stock Temp. Heating Storage technology heat behaviour II, etc Nuclear power generation Electricity µCHP Electricity Electricity grid delivered to supplied Nuclear Nuclear power end user (fission) plants District CHP Heat Storage National renewable power generation Workstream Solar thermal Solar Solar PV Module Wind Wind farms Lighting and appliances (domestic and commercial) Energy vector Wave Wave power Comm. lighting & appliances Geo- Geothermal thermal Energy vector at Dom. lighting & Lighting Lighting standard Behaviour Hydro- appliances & Appl’s & Appl’s Hydroelectric conversion electric Non-energy demand vector Domestic renewable power generation Industry H 2 production Industry Domestic solar PV Industry demand H 2 production H 2 Notes Domestic wind power Transport (1) Conversion losses includes own use; Biofuel production from waste pathways not shown Road Non-commercial Pass-km Behaviour (2) Storage includes all Waste biofuel storage solutions, Waste production eg, car batteries Rail Commercial Pass-km Behaviour Agriculture Water International Pass-km Behaviour Biofuel production Aviation Geosequestration Food production Carbon Other Imports sequestration Edible biomass Bio Biofuel imports Food imports UK- Elect’y DC lines Conversion Disti’n produced Food consumption Imports food losses 1 losses 1 demand
Methodology Each lever can be activated from a minimum effort to the maximum technical potential Demand Supply 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 TRANSPORT Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 ELECTRICITY HOUSEHOLDS • Current legal • Moderate effort • Significant effort • Maximum obligations relatively easily requiring large technical • No additional achievable changes, in terms potential based effort according to the of behaviours or on technical or BIO-ENERGY • « Reference majority of investment physical scenario » experts requirements constraints BUSINESS
A stakeholder based approach is used to develop the scenarios « Bottom up » study of Test each sector with Adapt the DECC model to 1 2 3 potential GHG reduction external experts regional data and improve it l’industrie, du transport et des bâtiments Emissions de GES en Wallonie, 2008, % 100% = 48 MtCO 2 e Workshops by sector Autres Déchets Production d’énergie Agriculture 1% with external experts 6% 10% 2% Industrie Résidentiel 13% (combustion) 27% Tertiaire 4% Discussions with international experts 21% 16% Transport Industrie (procédés) Define and model Detail the implications for Review conclusions with the 4 5 6 various scenarios these scenarios steering and expert committee 5 scénarios de décarbonisation de 80 à 95% Administration Scénario A Scénario B Demande et DEMANDE ENERGETIQUE et émissions élevées Industry EMISSIONS Demande et Scénario E émissions moyennes Civil organisations Demande et Scénario D Scénario C émissions faibles Academia Part intermittente faible Part intermittente faible (~40%) – CSC inclus (~60%) – CSC exclus OFFRE ENERGETIQUE ET CAPTURE D’EMISSIONS SOURCE: Climact
Key Succes factor: transparency By “transparent” we mean… Calculator is easy to understand and use Model and assumptions are published • User friendly, easy-to-use interface (web • Excel model is published • Methodology and assumptions are set tool and My2050 simulation). • User driven, not optimiser. out clearly in presentations/ reports Close collaboration during design Subject to Calls for Evidence • Extensive stakeholder engagement. • Presentations to various audiences at various stages and open to better assumptions.
Recommend
More recommend
