Partners meeting Presentation June 2014 Agenda Introduction - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Partners meeting Presentation June 2014 Agenda Introduction Review of previous minutes SWALIM Gu Seasonal Rainfall Update FSNAU/FESWNET update FSC response update for May 2015 Punt land resilience baseline survey
June 2014
Gu 2015 Rainfall Performance Update
Somalia Water and Land Information Management
25 June 2015
Gu 2015 Rainfall Performance
SWALIM Station Data
region having recorded the highest amounts of rainfall
and Ceel Waq districts.
Gu 2015 Rainfall Performance
SWALIM Station Data
region – Jariban, Bandarbeyla
Gu 2015Rainfall Performance
SWALIM Station Data
parts of Somaliland. This has impacted negatively in many sectors.
below normal rains - Hargeisa, Gebilley, Aburin and Borama among
Summary of Gu Rainfall Performance
Station Name Region GU 2015 Rainfall (mm) GU Average Rainfall (mm) Percent of Normal (%) Station Name Region GU 2015 Rainfall (mm) GU Average Rainfall (mm) Percent
(%)
Las Aanod Sool
210.0 71.0 295.8
Dangoroyo Bari
118.4 69.0 171.6
Ballidhin Bari
107.2 41.0 261.5
Diinsor Bay
414.3 247.0 167.7
Eyl Nugaal
220.0 89.0 247.2
Iskushuban Bari
79.0 48.0 164.6
Burtnile Nugaal
220.0 99.0 222.2
Belet Weyne Hiraan
271.0 182.0 148.9
Galkayo Mudug
213.5 98.0 217.9
Taleex Sool
121.5 83.0 146.4
Mataban Hiraan
387.5 186.0 208.3
Bulo Burti Hiraan
208.5 150.0 139.0
Caynabo Sool
255.0 133.0 191.7
Baidoa Bay
397.5 302.0 131.6
Xudun Sool
162.5 89.0 182.6
Qardo Bari
85.0 68.0 125.0
Buadodle Togdheer
163.8 135.0 121.3
Qulenjeed Awdal
190.5 227.0 83.9
BurHakaba Bay
415.5 354.0 117.4
Eeerigavo Sanaag
131.5 158.0 83.2
Hudur Bakool
218.0 187.0 116.6
Galdogob Mudug
87.5 110.0 79.5
Mogadishu Banadir
242.5 225.0 107.8
Bardaale Bay
200.0 252.0 79.4
Elafweyn Sanaag
98.0 110.0 89.1
Sakow
238.5 310.0 76.9
Garowe Nugaal
78.5 89.0 88.2
Jowhar M.Shabelle
190.0 252.0 75.4
Luuq Gedo
135.0 154.0 87.7
Gebilley
150.0 200.0 75.0
Bardheere Gedo
166.0 225.0 73.8
Balad
182.2 287.0 63.5
Sheikh Togdheer
163.0 221.0 73.8
Bualle Middle juba
202.0 323.0 62.5
Elbarde Bakool
163.1 222.0 73.5
Afgoi L.Shabelle
155.0 269.0 57.6
Jamame Lower Juba
171.0 260.0 65.8
Cadaadley W.Galbeed
89.0 161.0 55.3
Burao Togdheer
91.0 143.0 63.6
Hargeisa W.i Galbeed
105.5 208.0 50.7
Wajaale
83.0 223.0 37.2
Dilla
51.0 224.0 22.8
Dhubato
59.0 181.0 32.6
Bandarbeyla Bari
15.0 67.0 22.4
Borama Awdal
73.0 232.0 31.5
Jarriban Mudug
8.0 86.0 9.3
Baligubable
66.0 211.0 31.3
Odweyne Togdheer
2.0 168.0 1.2
Aburin
58.5 209.0 28.0
Berbera
11.5 0.0 0.0
Malawle
55.5 208.0 26.7
Alula Bari
0.0 4.0 0.0
Daraweyne
46.3 186.0 24.9
Wanleweyne Bay
171.5 0.0 0.0
Above normal Below normal Normal Consinderably below normal
Gu 2015 Rainfall performance compared to Deyr 2014
Gu 2015
Deyr 2014
Areas that were affected by drought during Deyr 2014 received good rains.
Vegetation Conditions
As of June 15, 2015
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Hot spots include North western parts of the country, Belet hawa and Eeel waq districts in the south as well as the southern coastal areas
Climate Outlook June – August
Source: ICPAC Source: SWALIM
The forecast for June to August indicates below normal Karaan rains in NW regions. Following the depressed Gu rains there is a high risk
monitoring is needed.
Floods Update
Jowhar
with many people affected by flood waters
Reported river breakages during Gu 2015 River breakages Current status Baareey Closed Bayahow Closed Dangale Closed Duduble Open Gufey Closed Gumbe Closed Guuleey (2) Closed Kulmis Yarow Closed Magadley Open Mahadaay Closed Mandheere Closed Mukayle Closed Mukidheere Closed Sabuun Open Timiire Closed
need for these breakages to be closed during the dry period (July to September) before the next rainy seasons begin.
situation closely.
Name of Village District Associated River Breakage Number of House Hold dispalced Number of innudated Cropland in Hectares Magaay Jowhar Kulmis yarow 15 552 Bayahow Jowhar Overflow itself 156 Raqayle Jowhar Overflow itself 110 Gaashaanle Jowhar Overflow itself 185 Tuugaareey Jowhar Overflow itself 101 Baardheere Jowhar Kulmis yarow 194 Primo Azenda Jowhar Bayaxoow 88 Sabun Jowhar Sabuun 357 Magadley Jowhar Magadley 221 Kulmis yarrow Jowhar Kulmis yarow 20 138 Gaafay Jowhar Magadley 160 Geedo Berkan Jowhar Magadley 20 250 Timire Jowhar Timire 191 Abdi galadi Jowhar Timire 198 Bulo Sheik Hilowle Jowhar Timire 120 Bulo Waray Jowhar Magadley 134 Bur Bisharo Jowhar Magadley 177 Moyko Jowhar Overflow itself 180 Gunbe Jowhar Gunbe 209 Lafo Malay Jowhar Sabuun 52 Mansur Mahaday Duduble 360 Diinlawe Mahaday Duduble 281 Dinlow Mahaday Duduble 125 Shan Mahaday Duduble 205 Dhin Garas Mahaday Duduble 70 Duduble Mahaday Duduble 1026 2976 Maqdas Bal’ad Kulmis yarow 17 230 Jameeco Bal’ad Kulmis yarow 40 246 Damaley Bal’ad Kulmis yarow 20 287 Farbaraki Bal’ad Kulmis yarow 15 180 Koreebe bari Bal’ad Kulmis yarow 23 294 Muki- dheere bari Bal’ad Kulmis yarow 30 329 Muki- dheere Bal’ad Kulmis yarow 250 Galckayo Galckayo Flash floods 450 Wanle Weyne Wanle Weyn Flash floods 20
Summary of current situation and what to expect
southern and parts of NE recording good rains during the season
9000 hectares of cropland destroyed.
reduced intensities in NE and southern coastal areas
average quantities of rain and are potentially at risk of water shortage given the current situation. Close monitoring is needed.
and can be found on http://www.faoswalim.org/
Questions or comments please send to Swalim@fao.org Thank you very much
Yemen Arrivals - Update
existing programmes
General Context
Period covered
Improved Access & Safety Nets
Actuals: March – April 2015
331,357 (46%) 331,165 (45%) 335,341 (46%)
Low coverage March to April: 62% coverage in February
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 Mar April May Actuals Gap
March April May
Out of the 335,341 beneficiaries assisted with IASN in March, 67% were located in South/Central Somalia.
Improved Access & Safety Nets
March April May
Out of the 331,357 beneficiaries assisted with IASN in March, 68% were located in South/Central Somalia.
Improved Access & Safety Nets
407,963 responses delivered in May reflecting increased coverage of 8% compared to
April: targets adjusted due to seasonality Actuals: March– May 2015
407,963 (67%) 416,397 (59%) 541,001 (68%)
Livelihood Assets
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 Mar April May Gap Actual
Livelihood Assets
The 407,963 beneficiaries assisted represent 67% of the target: an increase of 8% points from April March April May
Livelihood Assets
The 407,963 beneficiaries assisted represent 67% of the target: an increase of 8% points from April March April May
Livelihood Seasonal Inputs
4% 5% 6% 8% Feb March April May Cumulative Actuals / Seasonal Target
Gu Season – 2015 (All Inputs)
FSC partners have delivered 210,841
responses which account about 8 percent of the seasonal livelihood inputs target. 88,600 of these benefited from seeds related packages.
February
Livelihood Seasonal Inputs
May April March
1. IASN comparable to March/April (at 46%) but significantly lower compared to Feb (62%) 2. Increased LA coverage 3. Livelihood Seasonal Inputs lower than Gu 2014 but higher than Deyr 2014.
– Only PPR planned but NO CCPP plans reported due to funding shortfalls
Key Messages
Questions? Info.somalia@foodsecuritycluster.net http://foodsecuritycluster.net/countries/somalia
POST Gu 2015 Early Warning
Information for Better Livelihoods
Food Security Cluster Meeting 29 June 2015, Nairobi
CONTEXT:
Acute Food Security Situation in the Post-Deyr 2014/15 (February-June 2015)
Rural, Urban And IDP Populations
insecure (IPC Phases 3 and 4), o/w 76% were IDPs; 12 % urban and 12% rural
classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2);
livelihoods (SAP) of Middle and Lower Juba regions
and Hiran (Bulo Burto)
the rest in IPC Phase 3
Gu 2015 Performance
Performance: started earlier than normal in most parts of the country (3rd dekad March); near normal to above normal intensity &coverage; poor temporal distribution - little or no rains from the second dekad of May in most of South-Central and some parts of Northeast regions (Nugal and parts of Bari) Areas with below average/ poor rains: North: Agropastoral and Guban Pastoral; parts of Hawd of Togdheer; East Golis of Sanag; Northern Inland Pastoral of Sanaag and Bari, Coastal Deeh of Bari; South: Coastal areas (Shabelle and Juba), parts of Hiran, Gedo, Middle and Lower Juba regions Projections: Karan rains (July-August) in NW: near normal to below normal Hagaa rains (June-August) in coastal and adjacent areas in the South (Juba, Shabelle and Bay) Deyr 2015 rains: very preliminary forecast of El-Nino event, which in the case for Somalia may result in good Deyr rains.
Impact of Gu rains on Agricultural and Pastoral Livelihoods
Gu production) harvest is likely to be near average
country
Sanag and Awdal in the North, Gedo (Garbaharey and Belethawa districts) in the South and Galgadud (Adado district) in Central
country over the next six months
above baseline levels in most livelihoods
Cereal & Livestock Price and ToT Trends
3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 21,000 24,000 27,000 30,000
May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Price per Kg (SoSH)
Cereal Prices (SOSH)
Hiran (White Sorghum 1 kg) Gedo(Red Sorghum 1 kg) Bay(Red Sorghum 1 kg) Bakool(Red Sorghum 1 kg)
3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 18,000 21,000 24,000 27,000 30,000
May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Price per Kg (SoSH)
Cereal Prices (SOSH)
M Juba (White Maize 1 kg) L Juba (White Maize 1 kg) M Shabelle (White Maize 1 kg) L Shabelle (White Maize 1 kg)
January and May 2015 in most markets
in the North but increased mildly in Central;
Bay, Juba and Shabelle regions due to increase in cereal prices; remained stable in Gedo and Bakool; increased in Hiran due to decline in cereal prices.
Cost of Minimum Expenditure Basket in Urban Areas
areas of North-Central but increased in the South from 3 to 10%
2014): moderate declines in the minimum cost of living in most regions, apart from Banadir, Bari
Siege-Affected Areas: Bulo Burto (Hiran); Wajid and Hudur (Bakool)
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
Red Soghum Sugar Rice Wheat flour
Jan-15 May-14 May-15
Hudur Market
Bulo Burto and Wajid: Increased prices of food commodities since the beginning of 2015, although cereal prices have come down in Wajid Hudur: prices of most commodities have declined significantly since a year ago; prices are slightly higher than in January apart from cereals which fell by 11% Nutrition situation (June 2015): Very Critical in Bulo Burto (25%) and Critical (16%) in Bakool
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
W. Sorghum
Wheat flour Rice Sugar
Dec-14 May-15
Bulburte Market
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
Red Soghum Sugar Rice Wheat flour
Dec-14 May-15
Wajid Market
Nutrition Results in IDP Settlements
%) observed among five (Dhobley, Baidoa , Dolow, Garowe and Galkayo) IDPs
Gu 2015 assessment
nutrition situation deteriorated in Kismayo and Dhobley IDPs but improved significantly among Bossaso IDPs
Early Warning for the post-Gu 2015
December 2015)
livestock-dependent livelihoods apart from rain-deficit areas
town of Hiran and Bakool regions
settlements
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
June 29, 2015
1
2
CLIMATE UPDATE
March 2015 April 2015 May 2015
3
Climate Summary
The April-to-June (Gu) rainy season ended in early May with near normal to above normal performance in intensity, coverage and cumulative totals but poor in temporal across the country. The areas with generally poor rains during this period included agropastoral areas and Guban Pastoral of the Northwest, Coastal Deeh pastoral of the South and parts of Bari, Hiran, Gedo, and Middle and Lower Juba as well as localized areas of Sool Plateau
However, light to moderate rains ranging from 10 to 75 millimeters (mm) were received in localized areas of the northern, central, and southern regions through June 10, 2015.
Cumulative March to May 2015 rainfall as a percent of the 1981-to-2010 mean, African Rainfall Climatology-2 (ARC2) methodology
4
eMODIS NDVI Anomaly 2015 minus Average (2001-2010) June 11-20, 2015 Overall the rangelands have more resources due to the rainy season across most of Somalia. However, NDVI is below-average, indicating poorer availability of rangeland resources, in most of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, parts of Bari, Sanaag, Mudug, Jubas, Gedo and Lower Shabelle Regions where the rains have been less intense and the cumulative total of rainfall has been lower or ceased earlier than Normal.
5
Projected Food Security Outcome
July to September 2015
Figure 4: GHACOF Consensus Climate Outlook for the June to August 2015 rainfall season
The 40th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (25th to 26th May 2015) and partners consensus climate outlook, generally concluded increased likelihood
parts of Bay, Juba and Shabelle regions. There is an increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall over the coastal areas of Juba and Lower
June to August period is a dry season and these areas are expected to remain generally dry during June to August 2015
6
Projected food security outcomes, June 2015
remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in June and are likely to remain so through at least September. The expected below-average Gu harvest in July/August is likely to keep cereal prices higher than last year. Higher prices along with civil insecurity will continue to limit poor households’ purchasing power.
Shabelle River in Jowhar District of Middle Shabelle, and Balad of Middle Shabelle, and Sablale of Lower Shabelle, food security will likely deteriorate through September. River flooding in April destroyed planted crops and inundated prepared land. There is far less labor demand than usual in these areas. In Northwest Agropastoral livelihood zone, food security will likely deteriorate as there will be very little Gu maize harvested in July. However, during the start of the Karan rains in June, planted area will likely increase.
7
Moisture Index
Crop Moisture Index reflects moisture supply in the short-term across major crop-producing regions. It identifies potential agricultural
assess long-term droughts.
8
Projected food security outcomes, July to September 2015
No significant changes to the area-based food security classifications from FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for April to September 2015, food security in riverine areas of Middle Shabelle, agropastoral areas of Hiran and some parts of agropastoral areas in Bay, Bakool and Middle Juba regions will likely deteriorate due to the negative impact of the early cessation of the Gu rains resulting reduced crop production. The Gu cereal harvest will likely be below average in terms of
Shabelle regions, especially in Jowhar, Wanlaweyn and Sablale districts and long dry spell as of late May in agropastoral livelihood
August and September is likely to sustain normal market availability for cereals. In the Northwest, poor performance of Gu rains affected the maize in Northwest agropastoral and Short-cycle sorghum crop in Togdher Agropastoral livelihood zone. This will likely significantly reduce the harvest volume in July. The prospect of long-cycle sorghum performance depend to the projected near average July to August Karan rains. Similarly, projected near normal Hagaa shower in June-July will support both pasture and water conditions, and crop in Coastal Deeh and adjacent agropastoral areas in Lower Shabelle and Jubas.
9
Baseline Survey for Puntland (Bosasso and Ishkushuban) June 2015
Joint Resilience Strategy
– Diversification of livelihood strategies; – Intensification of production; – Access to Markets and Market Information.
– Community information and knowledge systems; – Household and community care practices; – Skills development & community-based social service delivery
– Sustained transfers of cash or food for long-term destitute or the seasonally at risk
Joint Resilience Strategy: Three Pillars
Resilience Index Measurement & Analysis (RIMA)
Male HHHs (0.01)
(0.16), urban (0.06)
to agric. assets
.5 1 1.5 2
.5 1 1.5
resilience index - Puntland SEM
Histogram Kernel density Mean MedianResilience in Puntland 2014
20 40 60 80 100
National Bossaso Iskushuban
National vs. Districts Share of components
PRD ABS SSN AC S 20 40 60 80 100
National MaleHH FemaleHH National Level vs. Household Head Gender Share of components
PRD ABS SSN AC S JRS Puntland Baseline: Demographics*
Livelihood System Freq. Percent Agro-Pastoralist 53 6.55% Fishing 110 13.60% IDPs 229 28.31% Pastoralist 121 14.96% Farming 56 6.92% Urban 240 29.67% Total 809
100%
23% 77% Female Male
JRS Puntland Baseline: Productive Assets (PRD)
Food consumption: Proportion of Population
District Livelihood Systems HH Head Sample Type
Bossaso Iskush Pastoral Agro- Past Riverine Fishing Urban IDP
Fem Male Study Control food insecure
8% 7% 2% 10% 14% 9% 6% 5% 12% 6% 7% 7%
Borderline
9% 6% 5% 12% 13% 0% 6% 9% 6% 8% 8% 7%
Acceptable
83% 87% 93% 79% 73% 91% 88% 85% 82% 86% 85% 86%
Livelihood Median expenditure (SoSh) Median Expenditure ($) Agro-Pasto 4,882,829 195 Pastoralist 3,996,375 160 Urban 3,735,850 149 Riverine 3,627,862 145 IDP 3,367,932 135 Fishing 3,145,567 126 Others 2,086,801 83
Monthly per capita expenditure
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
0.84 0.80 0.78 0.74 0.74 0.64 0.55 0.79 0.71 0.73 0.69 0.70 0.63 0.55
median (p50) mean
Share of food expenditure to total expenditure (Overall= 0.66 )
JRS Puntland Baseline: Access to Basic Services (ABS)
45 16 15 9 6 5 2 2 10 20 30 40 50
rented part of work free
– Pastoralists (54%) – Agro-past (76%) – Riverine (52%) – Fishing (60%) – Urban (60%) – IDP 5%
Access to Services
15 minutes away from their dwellings on average)
Child Delivery
public health facilities (12.5%);
JRS Puntland Baseline: Assets (AS)
Tropical Livestock Unit (TLU)
5 6 7 8 5 6 6 2 3 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Mean TLU
6% 94% yes no
ha; agro-pastoralist (1.6) Crop Land Ownership
JRS Puntland Baseline: SOCIAL SAFETY NETS (SSN)
Transfer Income & Social Networks
households;
(73%) than female headed hhs
Iskushuban (77%) than in Bossaso
groups is 66%
groups across the board
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 52% 42% 25% 36% 46% 22% 44%
Share people receiving transfer income
JRS Puntland Baseline: ADAPTIVE CAPACITY (AC)
(median=3) with about half having more than 3 sources of income
and farming population (2-3 sources) but highest among pastoral, agro-past and fishing
in Iskushuban (4) than in Bossasso
10% 8% 49% 33%
Income Diversity
none 2 sources 3 to 4 sources >4 sources
while only 10% have post primary education
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 47% 43% 39% 48% 49% 37%
Education of HH Head/Average Education
An educated household is more likely to ensure member of his/her household get formal education and vice versa head.
5 10 15 5 10 15 years of education head of hhSchool Attendance
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
JRS Puntland Baseline: SHOCKS
shock in the last 12 months
shocks (5-7)
Bossasso (3)
induced
SUMMARY OF TYPICAL YEAR PROGRAMMING SUPPORT – BROAD RATIONALES PER LIVELIHOOD GROUP
Gu - main rains Deyr rains Hagaa - dry season Jilaal - dry season Months Pastoralists IDPs/Peri-urban Agro-pastoralists Coastal Supporting Programmes April Supporting HHs to make investments (or support HH Recovery if following a failed Deyr & severe Jilaal) Strengthening HH's capacity to prepare for coming hardships or for making investments Protecting lives & livelihoods & safeguarding development gains Supporting HHs to make investments to prepare for difficult Hagaa (or support HH Recovery if following a failed Deyr & severe Jilaal with limited income from fishing activities) Protecting livelihoods & safeguarding development gains Protecting livelihoods & safeguarding investments Strengthening HH's capacity to prepare for coming hardships or for making investments Support HHs to make investments (or support HH Recovery if following a failed Deyr & severe Jilaal) Protecting livelihoods & safeguarding investments Strengthening HH's capacity to prepare for coming hardships (or support HH Recovery if following a failed Gu) Strengthening HH's capacity to prepare for coming hardships (or support HH Recovery if following a failed Gu) Protecting lives & livelihoods & safeguarding development gains May June July August September October November December January February March Protecting lives & livelihoods & safeguarding development gains Strengthening HH's capacity to prepare for coming hardships and make investments (or support HH Recovery if following a difficult Hagaa) Strengthening HH's capacity to prepare for coming hardships through investments (or support HH Recovery if fishing activities in the Deyr have only provided limited income) Consultations and Seasonal Programming Consultations, visit www.resilienceinsomalia.org.
Khan at FAO, Amit Singh at WFP and Sagal Ali/Marleen Renders at UNICEF.