Participation in Political Violence Class 5 - August 18 Why - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Participation in Political Violence

Class 5 - August 18

Why participate in anything?

Coordination problems

• You don’t know if anyone else wants to

show up and do the same thing.

• Solved with information, revealing

preferences, social network diffusion.

• Solved best when norms exist for

coordination within large groups of people.

Collective action problems

• Taking collective action is

inherently costly.

• Your participation adds

little, reward is high regardless.

○ Incentive to free-ride. ○ Impedes any participation.

• How to solve?

Solving collective action problems

• Material inducement.
• Social pressure.
• Coercion.

More difficult re: political violence

• Why risk injury, material, loss or death for a

cause that is likely to fail?

• Numerous reasons for why individuals

COULD participate...which one is most plausible?

Personal security

• Scacco, among others.
• Give in to coercion or

physical threats from one side.

• Ensure security for property

and family.

Material Gains

• Financial

compensation for compensation.

• Either through salary

(ISIS), robbery (RAF)

• r looting (rioters).

Grievances/Ideology

• Strong belief in a cause

can override collective action problems.

• Disaffected individuals

have less to lose in participating in costly violence.

Poverty

• Regardless of grievances, poor could have

lower opportunity costs for participation.

○ Supported by some empirical research on terrorism.

• However…

○ Some studies find that wealthier and more educated people are more likely to become militants/terrorists (in Hamas/Hizbollah).

Lee 2011

• Why does it seem that terrorists are

wealthier?

• How is the argument tested?

○ DV? IV?

• Do you have any issues with the test Lee

uses?

Social Pressure

• Petersen’s argument:

Social Pressure

• Petersen’s argument:
• Three stages:

○ 0=passivity ○ +1=unarmed, unorganized opposition ○ +2=participation in locally-based rebellion.

• Mechanisms

○ 0 to +1, +1 to +2, stay at +2.

0 to +1

• Frustration builds toward occupier.
• Resentment leads to focal events.

○ Leadership is not needed.

• Community status is gained with

participation or lost because of non- affiliation.

+1 to +2

• Passive resistance demonstrates willingness

to revolt.

• Everyone has a certain threshold for

rebelling against an occupation.

Staying at +2

• Difficult, but necessary.
• Threats, social or physical sanctions against

group members.

○ Why are these effective?

Humphreys and Weinstein 2008

Survey of ex-combatants in Sierra Leone: How do they test each explanation? Are these credible? Which ones are significant?

Discussion

• Which explanation was most convincing?

Imagine a conflict broke out in your community. Why do you think you would/wouldn’t participate? What would motivate your friends/relatives that would?

Cases: Chechnya and Indonesia

Background: Chechnya

• Deportations in 1950s.
• Declare independence in

1991.

• Separatist win war from

1994-1996.

• Overrun in subsequent

invasion in 1999-present.

Chechens have long history of resistance against Russian Rule

Reasons for participation (in video)

Reasons for participation (in video)

• Sense of duty.
• Russian oppression.
• Community obligation.
• Direct killing of relatives by Russians
• Demand of commanders.

Radicalization came as moderates were killed.

What explanation best explains Chechen participation?

Background: Indonesia

• Majority Muslim
• Dictatorship until 1998.
• Islamist movement with ties to Al-

Qaeda: Jemaah Islamiya active

2009 Jakarta Hotel Attack

• Two hotels struck by

suicide bombers.

○ 7 dead plus the bombers, mostly foreigners.

• Suspected organizers

killed during apprehension.

Marriott Suicide Bomber Dani Dwi Permana

• Sentenced to two years in prison for

stealing.

• Parents abandoned family.
• Found role model in local cleric, who

instructed him in suicide terrorism

What motivated Dani to be a suicide bomber?