Paleolimnological assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Paleolimnological assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Paleolimnological assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW: Paleolimnological assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW: Review of initiatives and update on research Paleolimnological assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW:
Paleolimnological Paleolimnological assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW: assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW:
Review of initiatives Review of initiatives
- Explore possibility of link between recent algal blooms &
Explore possibility of link between recent algal blooms & TP TP
- Have TP concentrations increased in the last few decades?
Paleolimnological Paleolimnological assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW: assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW:
Review of initiatives Review of initiatives
- Explore possibility of link between recent algal blooms &
TP
- Have TP concentrations increased in the last few decades?
- Survey of modern sedimentary diatom assemblages in LOW (ON)
Survey of modern sedimentary diatom assemblages in LOW (ON)
- Training set of LOW sites along TP gradient
Training set of LOW sites along TP gradient
- Identify areas of elevated and low nutrient concentrations
Identify areas of elevated and low nutrient concentrations
- Do diatoms track within
Do diatoms track within-
- lake differences in
lake differences in env
- env. conditions & water quality?
. conditions & water quality?
- Development of diatom
Development of diatom-
- based TP model
based TP model
Paleolimnological Paleolimnological assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW: assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW:
Review of initiatives Review of initiatives
- Explore possibility of link between recent algal blooms &
Explore possibility of link between recent algal blooms & TP TP
- Have TP concentrations increased in the last few decades?
- Survey of modern sedimentary diatom assemblages in LOW (ON)
Survey of modern sedimentary diatom assemblages in LOW (ON)
- Training set of LOW sites along TP gradient
Training set of LOW sites along TP gradient
- Identify areas of elevated and low nutrient concentrations
Identify areas of elevated and low nutrient concentrations
- Do diatoms track within
Do diatoms track within-
- lake differences in
lake differences in env
- env. conditions & water quality?
. conditions & water quality?
- Development of diatom
Development of diatom-
- based TP model
based TP model
- Full core analyses
Full core analyses – – historical changes in lake water quality historical changes in lake water quality
Paleolimnological Paleolimnological assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW: assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW:
Review of initiatives Review of initiatives
- Explore possibility of link between recent algal blooms &
Explore possibility of link between recent algal blooms & TP TP
- Have TP concentrations increased in the last few decades?
- Survey of modern sedimentary diatom assemblages in LOW (ON)
Survey of modern sedimentary diatom assemblages in LOW (ON)
- Training set of LOW sites along TP gradient
Training set of LOW sites along TP gradient
- Identify areas of elevated and low nutrient concentrations
Identify areas of elevated and low nutrient concentrations
- Do diatoms track within
Do diatoms track within-
- lake differences in
lake differences in env
- env. conditions & water quality?
. conditions & water quality?
- Development of diatom
Development of diatom-
- based TP model
based TP model
- Full core analyses
Full core analyses – – historical changes in lake water quality historical changes in lake water quality
- Comparisons between reference & impact sites
- reference = lower nutrients & no algal blooms
- impact = elevated nutrients & algal blooms occur
Paleolimnological Paleolimnological assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW: assessment of nutrients and algae in the LOW:
Review of initiatives Review of initiatives
- Explore possibility of link between recent algal blooms &
Explore possibility of link between recent algal blooms & TP TP
- Have TP concentrations increased in the last few decades?
- Survey of modern sedimentary diatom assemblages in LOW (ON)
Survey of modern sedimentary diatom assemblages in LOW (ON)
- Training set of LOW sites along TP gradient
Training set of LOW sites along TP gradient
- Identify areas of elevated and low nutrient concentrations
Identify areas of elevated and low nutrient concentrations
- Do diatoms track within
Do diatoms track within-
- lake differences in
lake differences in env
- env. conditions & water quality?
. conditions & water quality?
- Development of diatom
Development of diatom-
- based TP model
based TP model
- Full core analyses
Full core analyses – – historical changes in lake water quality historical changes in lake water quality
- Comparisons between reference & impact sites
- reference = lower nutrients & no algal blooms
- impact = elevated nutrients & algal blooms occur
- Have nutrient levels changed over the past ca. 200 years?
- Explore alternative mechanisms for recent changes
Lake of the Woods training set
Site
P P
- 1
2 P P
- 1
3 P P
- 1
4 P P
- 6
P P
- 1
5 P P
- 5
P P
- 4
P P
- 7
P P
- 3
P P
- 2
P P
- 8
P P
- 1
P P
- 9
P P
- 1
1 P P
- 1
8 P P
- 1
P P
- 1
7 P P
- 1
9 P P
- 2
P P
- 1
6
Total phosphorus (μg·L-1)
5 10 15 20 25 30
Whitefish Bay PP-1
Summer measurements
Bigstone Bay
Total Phosphorus Gradient Total Phosphorus Gradient
Results of this initiative published in J. Great Lakes Res. Pla et al. 2005 31:253-266
Update on research Update on research
+
Lake of the Woods training set
From J Great Lakes Res Pla et al. 2005 31: 253-266
16 sites in LOW 16 sites in LOW 55 Minnesota lakes 55 Minnesota lakes Northern Lakes and Forests (NLF) sites
From J Paleolimnol Ramstack et al. 2003 29: 79-94
DI-TP model development for LOW DI-TP model development for LOW
Update on research Update on research
Location of sampling sites for sediment cores Location of sampling sites for sediment cores
Impact Site Reference Site
- 96º
- 96º
- 95º
- 95º
- 94º
- 94º
- 93º
- 93º
49º 49º 50º 50º
Ontario Manitoba Minnesota
Kenora
km
10
PP PP-
- 1
1 Bigstone Bay Whitefish Bay
Update on research Update on research
REFERENCE SITE Whitefish Bay IMPACT SITE PP-1 IMPACT SITE Bigstone Bay
~ 1980 ~ 1970 ~ 1970
Update on research Update on research
Diatom analysis complete Please visit our poster! Please visit our poster!
Rühland et al.: in preparation.
- 1.5
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
- 3
- 2
- 1
1 2 3
- ca. 1884
- ca. 2002
~1982
- 2.0
- 1.5
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0 0.5
PCA axis 2
- 2
- 1
1 2 3
- ca. 2006
~1965
PCA axis 1
- 2.0
- 1.5
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
- ca. 1800
Whitefish Bay Reference
- ca. 1800
- 3
- 2
- 1
1 2 3
- ca. 2005
~1905
PP-1 Impact Bigstone Bay Impact
Trajectories of diatom change over time Trajectories of diatom change over time
Update on research Update on research
Rühland et al.: in preparation.
Year AD
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
Annual Temperature (ºC)
- 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 y = 0.0112x + 1.8032
1.19 ºC since 1899
5-yr running mean
Year AD
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
Winter Temperature (ºC)
- 22
- 20
- 18
- 16
- 14
- 12
- 10
- 8
- 6
y = 0.0216x - 16.136
2.29 ºC since 1899
5-yr running mean
Kenora Kenora Temperature vs. Diatom trends emperature vs. Diatom trends
Update on research Update on research
- 96º
- 95º
- 94º
- 93º
49º 50º
Kenora Kenora Minnesota O n t a r i
- Manitoba
Rühland et al.: in preparation.
Year AD
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
Annual Temperature (ºC)
- 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 y = 0.0112x + 1.8032
1.19 ºC since 1899
5-yr running mean
Year AD
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
Winter Temperature (ºC)
- 22
- 20
- 18
- 16
- 14
- 12
- 10
- 8
- 6
y = 0.0216x - 16.136
2.29 ºC since 1899
5-yr running mean
Kenora Kenora Temperature vs. Diatom trends emperature vs. Diatom trends
PCA scores (SD units)
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Annual Temperature (ºC)
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
PCA sample scores Annual Temperature
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
- 2
- 1
1 2
a b c R=0.67 R=0.84 R=-0.73
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
Year AD
Whitefish Bay Reference PP-1 Impact Bigstone Bay Impact
Update on research Update on research
- 96º
- 95º
- 94º
- 93º
49º 50º
Kenora Kenora Minnesota O n t a r i
- Manitoba
Rühland et al.: in preparation.
Year AD
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
Annual Temperature (ºC)
- 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 y = 0.0112x + 1.8032
1.19 ºC since 1899
5-yr running mean
Year AD
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
Winter Temperature (ºC)
- 22
- 20
- 18
- 16
- 14
- 12
- 10
- 8
- 6
y = 0.0216x - 16.136
2.29 ºC since 1899
5-yr running mean
Kenora Kenora Temperature vs. Diatom trends emperature vs. Diatom trends
DI-TP (µg/L)
14 16 18 20 22 24 26 1 2 3 4
DI-TP Annual Temperature
Year AD
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
14 16 18 20 22 1 2 3 4 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 1 2 3 4 d
e f R=-0.61 R=-0.46 R=-0.19
Annual Temperature (ºC) PCA scores (SD units)
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Annual Temperature (ºC)
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
PCA sample scores Annual Temperature
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
- 2
- 1
1 2
a b c R=0.67 R=0.84 R=-0.73
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
Year AD
Whitefish Bay Reference PP-1 Impact Bigstone Bay Impact
Update on research Update on research
- 96º
- 95º
- 94º
- 93º
49º 50º
Kenora Kenora Minnesota O n t a r i
- Manitoba
Rühland et al.: in preparation.
5-yr running mean
Kenora Kenora Temperature vs. Diatom trends emperature vs. Diatom trends
Year AD
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
Annual Temperature (ºC)
- 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 y = 0.0112x + 1.8032
1.19 ºC since 1899
5-yr running mean
Year AD
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
Winter Temperature (ºC)
- 22
- 20
- 18
- 16
- 14
- 12
- 10
- 8
- 6
y = 0.0216x - 16.136
2.29 ºC since 1899
Update on research Update on research
- 96º
- 95º
- 94º
- 93º
49º 50º
Kenora Kenora Minnesota O n t a r i
- Manitoba
Planktonic Cyclotella species
Rühland et al.: in preparation.
5-yr running mean
Kenora Kenora Temperature vs. Diatom trends emperature vs. Diatom trends
Year AD
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
Annual Temperature (ºC)
- 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 y = 0.0112x + 1.8032
1.19 ºC since 1899
5-yr running mean
Year AD
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
Winter Temperature (ºC)
- 22
- 20
- 18
- 16
- 14
- 12
- 10
- 8
- 6
y = 0.0216x - 16.136
2.29 ºC since 1899
Update on research Update on research
- 96º
- 95º
- 94º
- 93º
49º 50º
Kenora Kenora Minnesota O n t a r i
- Manitoba
Annual Temperature (ºC)
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Cyclotella (%)
10 20 30 40
R=0.62
1 9 1 9 1 1 9 2 1 9 3 1 9 4 1 9 5 1 9 6 1 9 7 1 9 8 1 9 9 2 2 1
1 2 3 4 2 4 6 8
Annual Temperature % Cyclotella species
R=0.74 Whitefish Bay Reference Bigstone Bay Impact
Planktonic Cyclotella species
Rühland et al.: in preparation.
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 y = 0.6556x + 203.64
Year AD # ice-free days
Ice-free period has increased by 27.7 days since 1964 Corresponds to increases in Kenora temperature
1960 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260
# ice-free days
1970 1980
Year AD
1990 2000 2010 1 2 3 4 5 6
Temperature (ºC)
R = 0.77
# Ice-free Days Annual Temperature
27.7 days
Update on research
Whitefi Whitefish Bay Ice-out vs. Diatom trends sh Bay Ice-out vs. Diatom trends
Update on research Update on research
Rühland et al.: in preparation.
PCA sample scores (SD units)
Whitefish Bay
116 118 120 122 124 126 128 130 132 134
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Ice-out day of year PCA sample scores
R = - 0.78 R = - 0.66
PP-1
Ice-out day of year
118 120 122 124 126 128 130 132
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
1 9 6 5 1 9 7 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 1 9 9 5 2 2 5
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 118 120 122 124 126 128 130 132
Bigstone Bay
R = - 0.88
Year AD
Whitefi Whitefish Bay Ice-out vs. Diatom trends sh Bay Ice-out vs. Diatom trends
Update on research Update on research
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 y = 0.6556x + 203.64
Year AD
# ice-free days
27.7 days since 1964
Rühland et al.: in preparation.
Whitefish Bay
Ice-out day of year
116 120 124 128 132 136
Cyclotella species (%)
10 20 30 40
Ice out day of year % Cyclotella
R =
- 0.67
Year AD
1 9 7 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 1 9 9 5 2 2 5
120 124 128 132 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
R = - 0.84
Bigstone Bay
PCA sample scores (SD units)
Whitefish Bay
116 118 120 122 124 126 128 130 132 134
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Ice-out day of year PCA sample scores
R = - 0.78 R = - 0.66
PP-1
Ice-out day of year
118 120 122 124 126 128 130 132
- 1.0
- 0.5
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
1 9 6 5 1 9 7 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 1 9 9 5 2 2 5
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 118 120 122 124 126 128 130 132
Bigstone Bay
R = - 0.88
Year AD
Whitefi Whitefish Bay Ice-out vs. Diatom trends sh Bay Ice-out vs. Diatom trends
Update on research Update on research
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 y = 0.6556x + 203.64
Year AD
# ice-free days
27.7 days since 1964
Planktonic Cyclotella species
Rühland et al.: in preparation.
Year (AD) PP1-Impact Site Bigstone Bay-Impact Site Whitefish Bay-Reference Site
1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 0.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0450.050
Chla (mg/g dry wt)
Spectrally-inferred Chl Spectrally-inferred Chla trends: all sites trends: all sites
Update on research Update on research
Rühland et al.: in preparation.
Winter Temperature (ºC)
0.018 0.020 0.022 0.024 0.026 0.028 0.030
PP1
0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035 0.040 0.045 0.050 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
- 17
- 16
- 15
- 14
- 13
- 12
R=0.78
Bigstone Bay
- 17
- 16
- 15
- 14
- 13
- 12
R=0.90
Winter Temperature trends Winter Temperature trends
Chla (mg/g dry wt) PP1-Impact Site Bigstone Bay-Impact Site Whitefish Bay-Reference Site Year (AD)
1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 0.0100.0150.0200.025
Chla (mg/g dry wt)
0.0300.0350.0400.0450.050
Spectrally-inferred Chl Spectrally-inferred Chla trends: all sites trends: all sites
Update on research Update on research
Rühland et al.: in preparation.
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 0.012 0.014 0.016 0.018 0.020 0.022 0.024 0.026
- 18
- 17
- 16
- 15
- 14
- 13
- 12
R=- 0.02
Whitefish Bay
Chla (mg/g dry wt) Winter Temperature (ºC) Winter Temperature (ºC)
0.018 0.020 0.022 0.024 0.026 0.028 0.030
PP1
0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035 0.040 0.045 0.050 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
- 17
- 16
- 15
- 14
- 13
- 12
R=0.78
Bigstone Bay
- 17
- 16
- 15
- 14
- 13
- 12
R=0.90
Winter Temperature trends Winter Temperature trends
Chla (mg/g dry wt) PP1-Impact Site Bigstone Bay-Impact Site Whitefish Bay-Reference Site Year (AD)
1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 0.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0450.050
Chla (mg/g dry wt)
Spectrally-inferred Chl Spectrally-inferred Chla trends: all sites trends: all sites
Update on research Update on research
Rühland et al.: in preparation.
Summary & Conclusions Summary & Conclusions
Update on research Update on research
- Historically, TP has been relatively high and variable at all 3
Historically, TP has been relatively high and variable at all 3 sites sites
- no evidence for recent increases in TP concentrations
Summary & Conclusions Summary & Conclusions
Update on research Update on research
- Historically, TP has been relatively high and variable at all 3 sites
- no evidence for recent increases in TP concentrations
- Temperature & Ice
Temperature & Ice-
- out trends linked to diatom changes
- ut trends linked to diatom changes –
–
- esp. last ~20
- esp. last ~20-
- 30 yrs
30 yrs
- all sites show important relationships to warming
- as expected this is most clearly expressed in the reference site
Summary & Conclusions Summary & Conclusions
Update on research Update on research
- Historically, TP has been relatively high and variable at all 3 sites
- no evidence for recent increases in TP concentrations
- Temperature & Ice-out trends linked to diatom changes – esp. last ~20-30 yrs
- all sites show important relationships to warming
- as expected this is most clearly expressed in the reference site
- Increase in 1
Increase in 10 production ( production (Chl Chl a) at impact sites (no trend at reference site) a) at impact sites (no trend at reference site)
- strong correlations to recent warming
- likely tracking algal blooms
- synergistic effects between nutrients & warming may be triggering algal blooms
Summary & Conclusions Summary & Conclusions
Update on research Update on research
- Historically, TP has been relatively high and variable at all 3 sites
- no evidence for recent increases in TP concentrations
- Temperature & Ice-out trends linked to diatom changes – esp. last ~20-30 yrs
- all sites show important relationships to warming
- as expected this is most clearly expressed in the reference site
- Increase in 1o production (Chl a) at impact sites (no trend at reference site)
- strong correlations to recent warming
- likely tracking algal blooms
- synergistic effects between nutrients & warming may be triggering algal blooms
- Recent diatom shifts in LOW best explained by recent warming & a
Recent diatom shifts in LOW best explained by recent warming & associated ssociated limnological limnological changes changes
Refereed papers: LOW paleo Refereed papers: LOW paleo studies (so far) studies (so far)
1) Pla, S., Paterson, A., Smol J. (2005). Spatial variability in water quality and surface sediment diatom assemblages in a complex lake basin: Lake of the Woods, Ontario, Canada. J. Great Lakes Res. 31: 253-266. 2) Yang, Z., Teller, J. (2005). Modeling the history of Lake of the Woods since 11,000 cal yr B.P. using
- GIS. J. Paleolimnol. 33: 483-498.
3) Reavie E., N. Baratono (2007). Multi-core investigation of a lotic bay of Lake of the Woods (Minnesota, USA) impacted by cultural development. J. Paleolimnol. 38: 137-156. 4) Suchy, K., Hann, B. (2007). Using microfossil remains in lake sediments to examine the invasion of Eubosmina coregoni (Cladocera, Bosminidae) in Lake of the Woods, Ontario, Canada. J. Great Lakes Res. 33: 867-874. ******************COMING SOON*********************** 1) Serieyssol C., Edlund, M., Kallemeyn L. (submitted). Impacts of settlement, damming, and hydromanagement in a large, boreal lake: a paleolimnological Before-After, Control-Impact study. 2) Rühland, K., Paterson, A, Smol, J. (submitted). Hemispheric-scale patterns of climate-related increases in planktonic diatoms from North American and European lakes. 3) Rühland, K., Paterson, A., Hargan, K., Michelutti, N., Clark, B., Smol, J. (submitted). Evidence for linkages between recent warming and diatom community reorganization in the Lake of the Woods, Ontario, Canada.