Overview of Adult Correctional Population Projections Costs Per Day - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Overview of Adult Correctional Population Projections Costs Per Day - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD Overview of Adult Correctional Population Projections Costs Per Day and Recidivism Rates Projections, Costs Per Day, and Recidivism Rates PRESENTED AT THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON CRIMINAL JURISPRUDENCE HEARING LEGISLATIVE

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SLIDE 1

LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD

Overview of Adult Correctional Population Projections Costs Per Day and Recidivism Rates Projections, Costs Per Day, and Recidivism Rates

PRESENTED AT THE HOUSE COMMITTEE ON CRIMINAL JURISPRUDENCE HEARING LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD STAFF MARCH 2015

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SLIDE 2

Correctional Population Projections: Overview Overview

  • C

ti l l ti j ti d d t

  • Correctional population projections are produced to serve as a

basis for biennial funding determinations.

  • Projections are based on current laws, policies, and practices.

Subsequent shifts in these factors will be incorporated into future LBB projections LBB projections.

  • The LBB simulation model incorporates these factors into the

p population projections and tracks offender movement into, through, and out of the criminal and juvenile justice systems.

2 MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351

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SLIDE 3

Adult Correctional Projections: Overview

Population projections consider:

  • Total Adult Population in Texas

Total Adult Population in Texas

  • Arrests
  • Court Activity

Court Activity

  • Considerations and Approvals from the Board of

Pardons and Paroles

  • Admissions
  • Length of Stay
  • Qualitative Research Findings

3 MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351

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SLIDE 4

Adult Correctional Projections: Populations j

■ Correctional Institutions ■ Parole ■ Community Supervision

 Average Felony Direct  Misdemeanor Placements

MARCH 4, 2015 4 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351

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SLIDE 5

Adult Correctional Projections: Incarceration Population and Operating Capacity p p g p y

Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020

170,000

Actual Population Fiscal Year 2010 154,283

160,000 165,000

Projected Population Fi l Y 2015 Projected Population Fi l Y 2020

145 000 150,000 155,000

Fiscal Year 2015 150,476 Fiscal Year 2020 152,710

135,000 140,000 145,000

Actual Population Projected Population Actual Operating Capacity Projected Operating Capacity

130,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

5

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351

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SLIDE 6

Adult Correctional Projections: Incarceration Population and Operating Capacity p p g p y

Fiscal Years 2015 to 2020

FISCAL YEAR INCARCERATION POPULATION

(END-OF-MONTH

YEARLY AVERAGE)

OPERATING CAPACITY OPERATING CAPACITY COMPARED

TO PROJECTED POPULATION

DIFFERENCE PERCENTAGE YEAR

YEARLY AVERAGE)

CAPACITY DIFFERENCE PERCENTAGE

2015 150,476 152,760 2,284 1.5% 2016 151,306 152,760 1,454 1.0% 2017 151,550 152,760 1,210 0.8% 2018 152,025 152,760 735 0.5% 2019 152 413 152 760 347 0 2% 2019 152,413 152,760 347 0.2% 2020 152,710 152,760 50 0.0%

N t O ti it i 96 0 t f th f t t l it iti

6

Note: Operating capacity is 96.0 percent of the sum of total unit capacities Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351

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SLIDE 7

Adult Correctional Projections: Parole Parole

Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020

81,220 87,588 88,053 100,000 81,220 80,000 60,000 Actual Projected 40,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

7

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351

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SLIDE 8

Adult Correctional Projections: Parole

Fiscal Years 2015 to 2020

FISCAL YEAR PROJECTED ACTIVE ADULT PAROLE SUPERVISION POPULATION

(END-OF-MONTH YEARLY AVERAGE)

2015 87,588 2016 87,646 2017 87 751 2017 87,751 2018 87,826 2019 87,941

Source: Legislative Budget Board.

2019 87,941 2020 88,053

8

g g

MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351

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SLIDE 9

Adult Correctional Projections: Felony Direct Community Supervision Felony Direct Community Supervision

Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020

172,893 170,000 175,000 180,000 159,355 159,548 160,000 165,000 0,000 145,000 150,000 155,000 Actual Projected 140,000 145,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

9

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351

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Adult Correctional Projections: Felony Direct Community Supervision y y p

Fiscal Years 2015 to 2020

FISCAL YEAR PROJECTED FELONY DIRECT COMMUNITY SUPERVISION POPULATION

(END-OF-MONTH YEARLY AVERAGE)

2015 159,355 2016 159,485 2017 159 440 2017 159,440 2018 159,007 2019 159,145

Source: Legislative Budget Board.

2019 159,145 2020 159,548

10 MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351

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SLIDE 11

Adult Correctional Projections: Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements

Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020

111,716 99 401 110,000 120,000 99,401 96,723 90,000 100,000 Actual Projected 70,000 80,000 Actual Projected 60,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

11

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351

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SLIDE 12

Adult Correctional Projections: Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements

Fiscal Years 2015 to 2020

FISCAL YEAR PROJECTED MISDEMEANOR COMMUNITY SUPERVISION PLACEMENTS

2015 99,401 2016 98,427 2017 98,184 2018 97,940 2019 96 966

Source: Legislative Budget Board.

2019 96,966 2020 96,723

12 MARCH 4, 2015 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351

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SLIDE 13

Qualitative Review

■ Interviews and focus groups with adult practitioners in

selected counties and at professional conferences. Participants included:

□

judges;

□

prosecutors;

□

defense attorneys;

□

adult community supervision staff;

□

adult parole staff;

□

state agency personnel; and

□

adult community supervision and parole offenders.

13 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 MARCH 4, 2015

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SLIDE 14

Qualitative Review

Adult Criminal Justice Findings

■

Adult criminal justice population trends are largely stable.

■

Adult criminal justice population trends are largely stable.

■

The felony community supervision population is higher risk and higher need.

■

Incarceration remains an attractive option over community supervision for certain offenders.

14 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 MARCH 4, 2015

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SLIDE 15

Criminal and Juvenile Justice Uniform Cost Report: Overview Overview

The February 2015 Adult and Juvenile Justice Uniform Cost Report provides costs per day per person for various adult and Report provides costs per day per person for various adult and juvenile correctional populations for use in funding determinations and to provide a basis

  • f

comparison among correctional programs and previously published cost figures programs and previously published cost figures.

■ Uniform costs are assessments of the total costs of

  • perating

a correctional facility

  • r

program and are reported as costs per day per person.

■ Costs

per day were calculated for various Texas

■ Costs

per day were calculated for various Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) populations and programs for fiscal years 2013 and 2014.

15 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 MARCH 4, 2015

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Criminal and Juvenile Justice Uniform Cost Report: Highlights Highlights

TDCJ Population Fiscal Year 2013 Fiscal Year 2014 Prison (systemwide) $52.64 $54.89 Parole Supervision $3 87 $4 04 Parole Supervision $3.87 $4.04 Community Supervision $3.13 $3.20

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

16 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 MARCH 4, 2015

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SLIDE 17

Criminal and Juvenile Justice Recidivism and Revocation Rates Report: Overview Revocation Rates Report: Overview

■ Recidivism is a return to criminal activity after previous

criminal involvement.

■ Each cohort is followed for three years. ■ This report uses the following measures to determine

recidivism recidivism.

□

Rearrest

□

Reincarceration

□

Revocation

17 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 MARCH 4, 2015

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SLIDE 18

Criminal and Juvenile Justice Recidivism and Revocation Rates Report: Highlights Revocation Rates Report: Highlights

Fiscal Year 2011 Adult Populations Rearrest% Incarceration/Reincarceration% Adult Populations Rearrest% Incarceration/Reincarceration%

Prison 46.5 21.4 State Jail 62.0 30.7 Substance Abuse Felony Punishment Facility 44.7 44.1 In-Prison Therapeutic Community 48.1 23.1 Intermediate Sanction Facility 57.5 36.5

Fiscal Year 2014 Revocation Rates

Felony Direct Community Supervision 15.6 % Parole 6.5 %

18 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 2351 MARCH 4, 2015

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice; Texas Department of Public Safety.