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Overview of June 2014 Adult and Juvenile June 2014 Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections PRESENTED AT THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE FORUM LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD STAFF SEPTEMBER 2014 Criminal Justice Forum Parameters Diverse group

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SLIDE 1

Overview of June 2014 Adult and Juvenile June 2014 Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections

PRESENTED AT THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE FORUM LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD STAFF SEPTEMBER 2014

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SLIDE 2

Criminal Justice Forum Parameters

  • Diverse group of participants
  • A learning opportunity for all
  • Limited to the subject area

Limited to the subject area

  • Please hold all questions and feedback

until the end of the presentation until the end of the presentation

  • Please fill out the feedback form and turn

in after the Forum (last page of handouts) in after the Forum (last page of handouts)

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 2

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SLIDE 3

Feedback Form – Research Sugg ggestions

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 3

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SLIDE 4
  • Criminal Justice Forum Parameters
  • Criminal Justice Forums are an opportunity for

various groups to come together to learn about and various groups to come together to learn about and discuss current issues in criminal/juvenile justice. If you have any questions that remain unanswered If you have any questions that remain unanswered following the Criminal Justice Forum, please feel free to talk with any CJDA team member following the Forum

  • Past Criminal Justice Forum presentations may be

found here: found here: http://www.lbb.state.tx.us/CJDA.aspx?Team=CJDA

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 4

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SLIDE 5

Ag genda

  • Introduction
  • Adult Projections
  • Juvenile Projections
  • Projections and the Budget
  • Upcoming Qualitative Research

Upcoming Qualitative Research

  • Question and Answer

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 5

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SLIDE 6

Adult Projections: Overview

The adult projections cover populations in the f ll followi ing correcti tional l syst tems:

  • Community Supervision (i e Probation)

Community Supervision (i.e., Probation)

  • Incarceration
  • Parole

Parole

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 6

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SLIDE 7

to t

Adult Projections: Methodology gy

How many How long will How many adults will come in the jus ice How long will each adult stay in the justice into the justice system? the justice system?

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 7

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SLIDE 8

f t / i i

Adult Projections: Methodology gy

On‐hand population with a predicted length

  • f stay/supervision

Admission population with a predicted length f t / i i

  • f stay/supervision

Plug these populations into Simul8 and enter number enter number

  • f expected

admissions A projected population is produced

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 8

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SLIDE 9

Adult Projections: Methodology gy

  • The simulation model tracks offender

movement i t int to, through h, and d

  • u t

t of the th f th criminal justice system.

  • Projections are based on current statutes,

laws, policies, and p practices.

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 9

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SLIDE 10

Adult Projections: Methodology gy

Population projections consider:

  • Population trends
  • Arrest trends
  • Court trends
  • Admission trends
  • Length of stay/supervision trends
  • Legislative policy and practice changes

Legislative, policy, and practice changes

  • Qualitative research findings

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 10

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SLIDE 11

Adult Projections: Key y Trends

Texas Adult Population Texas Adult Arrests

Calendar Years 2008 and 2012 Calendar Years 2008 and 2012 Calendar Years 2008 and 2012 Calendar Years 2008 and 2012

CHANGE

25,000,000

CHANGE +6.8%

18,207,273 19,445,687

1,200,000 20 000 000 1 000 000 1,000,000 800,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 600 000 600,000 10,000,000 400,000 5,000,000 200,000 200,000 ‐

1,056,580 964,051

‐8.8% CY 2008 CY 2012 CY 2008 CY 2012

Note: Adults are defined as individuals age 17 and older. Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas State Data Center; Texas Department of Public Safety.

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 11

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SLIDE 12

t

Adult Projections: Incarceration

  • The Texas Department of Criminal Justice

(TDCJ) (TDCJ) ad dmi ini ist ters ad dult lt st tat te correcti tional l facilities.

  • The projected state incarceration population

i l d ff d h d i includes offenders housed in:

  • Prison
  • St

il

  • State j

jail

  • Substance abuse felony punishment facilities

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Adult Projections: Incarceration Admissions Incarceration Admissions

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2013

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

72,738 72,315 73,988 74,232 71,713 80,000 40 000 60,000 20,000 40,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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Adult Projections: Incarceration Length of Stay (in years) Incarceration Length of Stay (in years)

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2013

3 2 1 2011 2012 2013 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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SLIDE 15

Adult Projections: Actual and Projected Incarceration Population and Operating Capacity Incarceration Population and Operating Capacity

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2019

Actual Population FY 2009 Projected Population

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

155,366 FY 2019 152 934

160,000

P j t d P l ti 152,934

150,000 155,000

Projected Population FY 2014 151,045

140,000 145,000 130,000 135,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Actual Population Projected Population Actual Operating Capacity Projected Operating Capacity SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 15

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Adult Projections: Incarceration

STATE-OPERATING CAPACITY INCARCERATION INCARCERATION INTERNAL COMPARED TO PROJECTED POPULATION FISCAL

(END-OF-MONTH

OPERATING POPULATION YEAR

YEARLY AVERAGE)

CAPACITY DIFFERENCE PERCENTAGE

152 760 1,715 1 1% 2014 2014 151 045 151,045 152,760 1 715 1.1% 2015 151,217 152,760 1,543 1.0% 152 760 943 0 6% 2016 2016 151 817 151,817 152,760 943 0.6% 2017 152,374 152,760 386 0.3% 2018 152,292 152,760 468 0.3% 2019 152,394 152,760 366 0.2%

Note: Operating capacity is 96.0 percent of sum of total unit capacities. The TDCJ internal operating capacity includes beds temporarily removed from capacity and will differ from the internal operating capacity reported in the LBB’s Monthly beds temporarily removed from capacity and will differ from the internal operating capacity reported in the LBB s Monthly Correctional Indicators report. Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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Adult Projections: Active Parole

  • Statute determines who is eligible for parole and when
  • Board of Pardons and Paroles (BPP) determines whether:
  • Eligible prisoners are approved for release to parole
  • Parolees violated supervision terms and, if so, whether to

revoke parole

  • The TDCJ Parole Division supervises parolees and

notifies BPP of supervision violations

  • The projected parole population covers active parolees –

parolees who have not absconded

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Adult Projections: Active Parole and Discretionary Mandatory Supervision (DMS) Case Approvals Mandatory Supervision (DMS) Case Approvals

35 000 35,000 30,000 25 000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2013

22 995 24,124 24 092 29,312 27,619 22,995 , 24,092 8,957 9,407 10,149 12,066 9,491 Parole DMS DMS 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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Adult Projections: Active Parole Supervision Admissions Active Parole Supervision Admissions

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2013

60 000 42,276 37 642 50,000 60,000 34,718 35,377 35,035 37,642 30,000 40,000 10 000 20,000 10,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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Adult Projections: Active Parole Average Length of Supervision (in years) Length of Supervision (in years)

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2013

4 4 3 3 2 1 2011 2012 2013 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 2.9 2.8 2 7 2 7 2.7 2.7 2.6

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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Adult Projections: Actual and Projected Active Parole Population Projected Active Parole Population

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2019

100 000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 20,000 ‐ 78,945 87,023 87,708 Actual P j t d Projected 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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SLIDE 22
  • yxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaYWVUTSRQPONMLJIGFEDCBA

Adult Projections: Community Supervision (Probation) Community Supervision (Probation)

  • Local courts:

Sentence probationers to community supervision Sentence probationers to community supervision

  • Determine whether a probationer violated supervision terms

and, if so, whether to revoke supervision

  • Community Supervision and Corrections

Departments (CSCD) supervise offenders and notify courts of su p pervision violations

  • TDCJ’s Community Justice Assistance Division

(CJAD) ) monitors, funds, , and su pp pp

  • rts CSCDs

( ,

  • The projected population covers those under direct

supervision

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Adult Projections: Felony Direct Community Supervision Placements Community Supervision Placements

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2013

70 000 2011 2012 2013 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

60,398 56,983 56,758 54,363 54,095 50 000 60,000 70,000 40,000 50,000 20,000 30,000 10,000

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 23

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Adult Projections: Actual and Projected Felony Direct Community Supervision Population Direct Community Supervision Population

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2019

200,000 160,000 120,000 80,000 40 000 40,000 ‐ 172,514 161,670 160,387 Actual Projected 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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Adult Projections: Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements Community Supervision Placements

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2013

112,765 2011 2012 2013 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013 111,716 105,498 103,514 104,385 100,000 120,000 60 000 80,000 40,000 60,000 20,000

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 25

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Adult Projections: Actual and Projected Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2019

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

112,765 103,313 100,019 120,000 80,000 Actual 40,000 Projected ‐ 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 26

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Juvenile Projections: Overview

  • State Residential Populations
  • Parole Populations
  • Probation Populations
  • Adjudicated Probation
  • Deferred Prosecution
  • Conditional Release

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 27

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SLIDE 28

h l

Juvenile Projections: Methodology gy

How many How long will juveniles will come into the each juvenile stay in the justice justice system? system?

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 28

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SLIDE 29

l h f en er

Juvenile Projections: Methodology gy

On‐hand population with a predicted Plug these length of stay A projected population is populations into Simul8 & t number produced Admission population with a predicted length of enter number

  • f expected

admissions predicted length of stay

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 29

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SLIDE 30

Juvenile Projections: Methodology gy

  • The simulation model tracks juvenile

movement i t int to, through h, and d

  • u t

t of the th f th juvenile justice system.

  • Projections are based on current statutes,

laws, policies, and p practices.

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 30

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SLIDE 31

Juvenile Projections: Methodology gy

Population projections consider:

  • Population trends
  • Arrest trends

Arrest trends

  • Court trends
  • Ad

Admi issi ion t trend ds

  • Length of stay trends
  • Legislative, policy, and practice changes
  • Qualitative research findings

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 31

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SLIDE 32

CHANGE

Juvenile Projections: Key y Trends

Texas Juvenile Population Texas Juvenile Arrests

2,714,849 2,444,889 2,444,889

CHANGE +11.0% CHANGE

91,873

‐31.5%

134,024

3,000,000 140,000 120 000 120,000 2 500 000 2,500,000 100,000 2,000,000 80,000 1 500 000 1,500,000 60,000 1,000,000 40,000 500,000 20,000 CY 2008 CY 2012 CY 2008 CY 2012

Note: Juveniles are defined as individuals age 10 – 16. Sources: Texas Department of Public Safety; Texas State Data Center.

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Juvenile State Residential Projections

  • The Texas Juvenile Justice Department

d i i t j il t t id ti l administers juvenile state residential facilities.

  • State residential facilities include institutions

State residential facilities include institutions, halfway houses, and contract care facilities.

  • Juveniles must be released before their 19th

Juveniles must be released before their 19th birthday.

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Juvenile State Residential Admissions

2,089 2,000 2,500 1,418 1,262 1,073 1 008 1,500 1,008 500 1,000 Fiscal Years 2009 To 2013 2 500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 34

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SLIDE 35

Juvenile State Residential Average Length of Stay in Months Length of Stay in Months

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2013 17 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

15 1 15.9 16.4 16.4 16 17 13.9 15.1 14 15 13 14 12

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  • yxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaYWVUTSRQPONMLJIGFEDCBA

Actual and Projected TJJD State Residential Average Daily Population and State-Funded Residential Capacity Daily Population and State Funded Residential Capacity

3 500 4,000

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2019

2 500 3,000 3,500 2,000 2,500 Actual Population Fiscal Year 2009 Projected Population Fiscal Year 2014 1 325 Projected Population Fiscal Year 2019 1,000 1,500 Actual Population Projected Population Fiscal Year 2009 2,426 1,325 1,283

  • 500

Actual Population Projected Population State-Funded Residential Capacity Projected State-Residential Capacity 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

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SLIDE 37
  • Projected TJJD State Residential Average Daily

Population and State Funded Residential Capacity Population and State-Funded Residential Capacity

Fiscal Years 2014 To 2019

STATE RESIDENTIAL STATE- STATE-FUNDED RESIDENTIAL AVERAGE FUNDED CAPACITY COMPARED TO FISCAL DAILY RESIDENTIAL PROJECTED POPULATION YEAR POPULATION CAPACITY* DIFFERENCE PERCENTAGE 2014 1,325 1,309 16 1.2% 2015 2015 1 331 1,331 1 319 1,319 12 12 0 9% 0.9% 2016 1,304 1,319 (15) (1.1%) 2017 1,288 1,319 (31) (2.4%) 2018 1,286 1,319 (33) (2.5%) 2019 1,283 1,319 (36) (2.7%)

Note: State-funded residential capacity is the number of beds funded each fiscal year in the State of Texas General Note: State funded residential capacity is the number of beds funded each fiscal year in the State of Texas General Appropriations Act. Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 37

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Juvenile Parole Projections

  • TJJD administers juvenile parole.
  • Juvenile parole projections include
  • Juveniles from Texas on parole in Texas
  • Juveniles from other states on parole in

Texas

  • Juvenile parole projections exclude juveniles

from Texas on parole in other states.

  • Juveniles from Texas must be released before

their 19th birthday.

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 38

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Juvenile Parole Admissions

1,982 1 623 2,000 2,500 1,623 1,229 934 1,500 934 802 500 1,000 Fiscal Years 2009 To 2013 2 500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 39

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Juvenile Parole Average Length of Stay in Months in Months

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2013 12 12 11 10 9 8 9.8 10.2 10.3 9.9 9 4 9.4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 40

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SLIDE 41

Actual and Projected Juvenile Parole Average Daily Population Average Daily Population

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2019

1,727

1,600 2,000

Actual Projected

1,200

507 403

400 800 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 41

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Juvenile Probation Projections

  • Local juvenile probation departments supervise

juveniles on probation juveniles on probation.

  • Juveniles on probation supervision must be

released before their 18th birthday unless they released before their 18th birthday unless they are on determinate sentence probation.

  • Projections are made for the following

Projections are made for the following populations:

  • Adjudicated Probation
  • Deferred Prosecution
  • Conditional Release

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 42

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Juvenile Probation Supervision Admissions Juvenile Probation Supervision Admissions

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2013

Total Supervision Deferred Prosecution Adjudicated Probation Conditional Release 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10 000 10,000

56,307 52,708 48,666 45,625 42,776 ,

24,457 24,457 18,170 20,627 14,208 11,223 10,398 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

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yxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaYWVUTSRQPONMLJIGFEDCBA Juvenile Probation Average Length of Stay in Months in Months

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2013

Total Supervision Adjudicated Probation Total Supervision Adjudicated Probation Deferred Prosecution Conditional Release 11.8 11.4 12 10 8 6 4 2

7.1 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8

4.9 5.0 3 3 3.3 3.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 44

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SLIDE 45

Actual and Projected Juvenile Probation Average Daily Population Average Daily Population

Fiscal Years 2009 To 2019

Adjudicated Probation Actual Adjudicated Probation Projected D f d P ti A t l D f d P ti P j t d Deferred Prosecution Actual

40,000 35,000 30 000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000

33,494

Deferred Prosecution Projected Conditional Release Actual Conditional Release Projected Total Supervision Actual Total Supervision Projected

20,278

33,494 23,529 23,250

13,679 13,795 10,284 7,160 6,880 , 2,932 2,690 2,575 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

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SLIDE 46

Projected Juvenile Probation Average Daily Population Daily Population

Fiscal Years 2014 To 2019 Year Year Adjudicated Adjudicated Probation Deferred Deferred Prosecution Conditional Conditional Release Total Total Supervision 2014 2014 13 679 13,679 7 160 7,160 2 690 2,690 23 529 23,529 2015 13,535 6,952 2,669 23,156 2016 2016 13 954 13,954 6 976 6,976 2 642 2,642 23 572 23,572 2017 13,968 6,915 2,588 23,471 2018 13,919 6,871 2,618 23,408 2019 13,795 6,880 2,575 23,250

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 46

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SLIDE 47

Upcoming g Fall Qualitative Research

  • Numbers don’t tell the whole story!
  • Qualitative research serves several

purposes:

  • Obtain feedback from criminal and juvenile

justice field on June 2014 projections

  • Collect data for qualitative component of

January 2015 projections

  • Develop and maintain rapport with field
  • Learn about trends and events which may not

h i tit ti d t show up in quantitative data

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SLIDE 48

Upcoming g Fall Qualitative Research

  • Methods
  • Focus groups, interviews, and site visits
  • Participants include practitioners,

Participants include practitioners, decision-makers, and offenders

  • Travel to selected professional

Travel to selected professional conferences and locations throughout Texas Texas

  • August 2014 – December 2014

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SLIDE 49

Upcoming g Fall Qualitative Research

  • Sample questions:
  • Texas prison populations are projected to

remain relatively flat over the next few years. Is thi bl j ti ? Wh / h t? this a reasonable projection? Why/why not?

  • Juvenile probation populations are expected to

remain largely stable over the next few years Is remain largely stable over the next few years. Is this a reasonable projection? Why/why not?

  • What legislative recommendations do you have

What legislative recommendations do you have for the upcoming legislative session? Which is the most important recommendation?

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 49

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SLIDE 50

Correctional Population Projections and the Budget Process the Budget Process

  • Used

by agencies to draft legislative i ti t appropriations requests

  • Used by LBB staff to draft recommendations

for the General Appropriations bills as introduced

  • January projections are
  • an update to June projections

an update to June projections

  • are a resource for Legislators

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SLIDE 51

Questions Questions

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 51

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SLIDE 52

LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD

Contact the LBB

Legislative Budget Board www.lbb.state.tx.us 512.463.1200

SEPTEMBER 5, 2014 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 1458 52