Overview of June 2016 Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Overview of June 2016 Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Overview of June 2016 Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections PRESENTED AT THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE FORUM LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD STAFF SEPTEMBER 2016 Criminal Justice Forum Parameters Diverse group of participants Learning

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Overview of June 2016 Adult and Juvenile Correctional Population Projections

PRESENTED AT THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE FORUM LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD STAFF SEPTEMBER 2016

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Criminal Justice Forum Parameters

  • Diverse group of participants
  • Learning opportunity for all
  • Limited to the subject area
  • Criminal Justice Forums are an opportunity for

various groups to come together to learn about and discuss current issues in criminal and juvenile justice.

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 2

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Feedback Form (Final Page of the Handout)

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Agenda

  • Introduction
  • Adult Projections
  • Juvenile Projections
  • Upcoming Qualitative Research
  • Projections and the Budget
  • Question and Answer

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Adult Projections: Overview

The adult projections cover the following correctional populations:

  • Incarceration
  • Parole
  • Community Supervision
  • Felony Direct
  • Misdemeanor Placements

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 5

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Adult Projections: Methodology

How many adults will come into the criminal justice system? How long will each adult stay in the criminal justice system?

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 6

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Adult Projections: Methodology

On-hand population with a predicted length of stay/supervision Admission population with a predicted length of stay/supervision A projected population is generated Import these populations into Simul8 and enter number of expected admissions

  • The simulation model tracks offender movement into, through,

and out of the criminal justice system.

  • Projections are based on current laws, policies, and practices.

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 7

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Adult Projections: Methodology

Population projections consider:

  • Population trends
  • Arrest trends
  • Court trends
  • Admission trends
  • Length of stay/supervision trends
  • Legislative, policy, and practice changes

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Adult Projections: Key Trends

Texas Adult Population Texas Adult Arrests

25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000

  • 18,700,000

CHANGE +8.0%

20,200,000

1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000

1,027,482 CHANGE

  • 20.1%

820,942

CY 2010 CY 2014 CY 2010 CY 2014

Note: Adults are defined as individuals age 17 and older. Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas State Data Center; Texas Department of Public Safety.

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 9

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Adult Projections: Incarceration

  • The Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ)

administers adult state correctional facilities.

  • The projected state incarceration population includes
  • ffenders housed in:
  • Prison
  • State jail
  • Substance abuse felony punishment facilities

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Adult Projections: Incarceration Admissions

80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000

Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015

73,988 74,232 71,713 71,325 69,066

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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Adult Projections: Incarceration Length of Stay (in years)

Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015

3 2 1

2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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Adult Projections: Actual and Projected Incarceration Population and Internal Operating Capacity

Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021

Actual Population Fiscal Year 2011

160,000 155,000 150,000 145,000 140,000 135,000 130,000

155,967 Projected Population Fiscal Year 2016 147,717

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Actual Population Projected Population Actual Operating Capacity Projected Operating Capacity Projected Population

Fiscal Year

2021 147,701

NOTE: In September 2013, TDCJ permanently removed 4,316 beds from capacity as part of the budget reductions directed by the Eighty-third Legislature. In December 2013, TDCJ permanently removed 40 beds from capacity to accommodate wheelchair accessibility. In July 2015, TDCJ permanently added 5 beds to capacity at the Santa Maria Unit to accommodate the expansion of the Baby and Mother Bonding Initiative program.

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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Adult Projections: Incarceration

Fiscal Years 2016 To 2021

INTERNAL OPERATING CAPACITY INCARCERATION INTERNAL COMPARED TO PROJECTED POPULATION FISCAL

(END-OF-MONTH

OPERATING POPULATION YEAR

YEARLY AVERAGE)

CAPACITY DIFFERENCE PERCENTAGE

2016 147,717 152,765 5,048 3.4% 2017 147,683 152,765 5,082 3.4% 2018 147,668 152,765 5,097 3.5% 2019 147,659 152,765 5,106 3.5% 2020 147,739 152,765 5,026 3.4% 2021 147,701 152,765 5,064 3.4%

Note: Operating capacity is 96.0 percent of sum of total unit capacities. The TDCJ internal operating capacity includes beds temporarily removed from capacity and will differ from the internal operating capacity reported in the LBB’s Monthly Correctional Indicators report.

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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Adult Projections: Active Parole

  • Statute determines who is eligible for parole and when
  • Board of Pardons and Paroles (BPP) determines

whether:

  • Eligible prisoners are approved for release to parole
  • Parolees violated supervision terms and, if so,

whether to revoke parole

  • The TDCJ Parole Division supervises parolees and

notifies BPP of supervision violations

  • The projected parole population covers active parolees

– parolees who have not absconded

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Adult Projections: Active Parole Supervision Placements

Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015

35,035 42,276 37,642 36,655 37,195

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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Adult Projections: Active Parole Average Length of Supervision (in years)

Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015

4 3 2 1

2.7 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.9

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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Adult Projections: Actual and Projected Active Parole Supervision Population

Fiscal Years 2011 To 2021

Actual Projected

100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

80,953 87,687 88,278

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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Adult Projections: Community Supervision

  • Local courts:
  • Sentence probationers to community supervision
  • Determine whether a probationer violated supervision

terms and, if so, whether to revoke supervision

  • Community Supervision and Corrections Departments

(CSCDs) supervise offenders and notify courts of supervision violations.

  • TDCJ’s Community Justice Assistance Division monitors,

funds, and supports CSCDs

  • The LBB generates projections for felons under direct

supervision and misdemeanor placements.

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Adult Projections: Felony Direct Community Supervision Placements

Fiscal Years 2011 To 2015

80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000

56,758 54,363 54,095 52,965 53,396

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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Adult Projections: Felony Direct Average Length of Supervision (in years)

Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015

3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7

2 4 6 8 10 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

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Adult Projections: Actual and Projected Felony Direct Community Supervision Population

200,000 160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000

Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021

Actual Projected 170,994 156,096 158,298 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 22

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Adult Projections: Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements

Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015

105,498 103,514 104,385 99,645 94,597

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 23

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Adult Projections: Actual and Projected Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements

Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021

120,000 80,000 40,000

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice.

105,498 94,308 86,897 Actual Projected

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 24

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Juvenile Projections: Overview

  • State Residential Populations
  • Parole Populations
  • Probation Populations
  • Adjudicated Probation
  • Deferred Prosecution
  • Conditional Pre-Disposition

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Juvenile Projections: Methodology

How many juveniles will come into the juvenile justice system? How long will each juvenile stay in the juvenile justice system?

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 26

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Juvenile Projections: Methodology

On-hand population with a predicted length of stay/supervision Admission population with a predicted length of stay/supervision A projected population is generated Import these populations into Simul8 and enter number of expected admissions

  • The simulation model tracks offender movement into, through,

and out of the juvenile justice system.

  • Projections are based on current laws, policies, and practices.

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 27

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Juvenile Projections: Methodology

Population projections consider:

  • Population trends
  • Arrest trends
  • Court trends
  • Admission trends
  • Length of stay trends
  • Legislative, policy, and practice changes

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Juvenile Projections: Key Trends

Texas Juvenile Population Texas Juvenile Arrests

116,305

CHANGE

  • 50.6%

57,490 2,826,393

3,000,000

2,629,727

CHANGE +7.5%

140,000 120,000 2,500,000 100,000 2,000,000 80,000 1,500,000 60,000 1,000,000 40,000 500,000 20,000 CY 2010 CY 2014 CY 2010 CY 2014

Note: Juveniles are defined as individuals age 10 – 16. Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Public Safety; Texas State Data Center.

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Juvenile Projections: State Residential Populations

  • The Texas Juvenile Justice Department (TJJD)

administers juvenile state residential facilities.

  • State residential facilities include institutions,

halfway houses, and contract care facilities.

  • Juveniles must be released before their 19th

birthday.

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Juvenile Projections: State Residential Admissions

Fiscal Years 2011 To 2015

1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200

1,262 1,073 1,008 943 988

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

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Juvenile Projections: State Residential Average Length of Stay (in months)

Fiscal Years 2011 To 2015

15.9 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.0

12 14 16 18 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

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Juvenile Projections: Actual and Projected TJJD State Residential Average Daily Population and Operating Capacity

3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Actual Population Projected Population Operating Capacity Projected Operating Capacity Actual Population Fiscal Year 2011 1,672 Projected Population Fiscal Year 2016 1,345 Projected Population Fiscal Year 2021 1,518

Fiscal Years 2011 To 2021

Note: In July 2011, TJJD closed three state residential facilities as part of budget reductions. In September 2014, TJJD permanently removed additional state residential facility beds from capacity when the agency converted open bay areas to single-occupancy rooms; closed two halfway houses; and utilized fewer contract facility beds.

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department

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Juvenile Projections: TJJD State Residential Average Daily Population and Operating Capacity

Fiscal Years 2016 To 2021

OPERATING CAPACITY STATE COMPARED TO PROJECTED FISCAL RESIDENTIAL OPERATING POPULATION YEAR POPULATION CAPACITY* DIFFERENCE PERCENTAGE 2016 1,345 2,007 662 33.0% 2017 1,389 2,007 618 30.8% 2018 1,403 2,007 604 30.1% 2019 1,386 2,007 621 30.9% 2020 1,460 2,007 547 27.3% 2021 1,518 2,007 489 24.4%

Note: Operating capacity represents the total number of beds available for permanent assignment. Not included within this number are 279 temporary assignment (youth management and clinic) beds. At present there are 513 permanent assignment beds and 76 temporary assignment beds off-line.

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

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Juvenile Projections: Parole

  • TJJD administers juvenile parole.
  • Juvenile parole projections include:
  • Juveniles from Texas on parole in Texas
  • Juveniles from other states on parole in Texas
  • Juvenile parole projections exclude juveniles from

Texas on parole in other states.

  • Juveniles from Texas must be released before their

19th birthday.

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Juvenile Projections: Parole Admissions

Fiscal Years 2011 To 2015

1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200

1,229 934 802 759 676

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

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Juvenile Projections: Parole Average Length of Stay (in months)

Fiscal Years 2011 To 2015

12 10 8 6 4 2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

10.3 9.9 9.4 8.3 7.1

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

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Juvenile Projections: Actual and Projected Juvenile Parole Average Daily Population

Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021

1,600 1,200 800 400

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

1,108 414 471 Actual Projected

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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Juvenile Projections: Probation

  • Local juvenile probation departments supervise

juveniles on probation.

  • Juveniles on probation supervision must be released

before their 18th birthday unless they are on determinate sentence probation.

  • Projections are made for the following populations:
  • Adjudicated Probation
  • Deferred Prosecution
  • Conditional Pre-Disposition

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 39

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Juvenile Projections: Probation Supervision Admissions

Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015

Total Supervision Deferred Prosecution Adjudicated Probation Conditional Pre-Disposition

48,666 45,625 42,776 40,181 41,341

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 40

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Juvenile Projections: Probation Average Length of Stay (in months)

Fiscal Years 2011 to 2015

Total Supervision Adjudicated Probation Deferred Prosecution Conditional Pre-Disposition 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.4 2 4 6 8 10 12 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 41

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Juvenile Projections: Actual and Projected Juvenile Probation Average Daily Population

Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021

Adjudicated Probation Actual Adjudicated Probation Projected Deferred Prosecution Actual Deferred Prosecution Projected 16,818 12,467 13,138 8,641 6,538 5,533 2,772 2,983 3,521

28,231 21,988 22,192

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Conditional Pre-Disposition Actual Conditional Pre-Disposition Projected Total Supervision Actual Total Supervision Projected

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

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Juvenile Projections: Projected Juvenile Probation Average Daily Population

Fiscal Years 2016 To 2021

Year Adjudicated Deferred Conditional Total Probation Prosecution Pre-Disposition Supervision 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 12,467 12,141 12,998 13,361 13,293 13,138 6,538 6,338 6,347 6,064 5,718 5,533 2,983 3,150 3,226 3,348 3,437 3,521 21,988 21,629 22,571 22,773 22,448 22,192

Sources: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department.

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461 43

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Upcoming Fall Qualitative Research

  • Numbers don’t tell the whole story!
  • Qualitative research serves several purposes:
  • Obtain feedback on the June 2016 projections

from criminal and juvenile justice field

  • Collect data for qualitative component of

January 2017 projections

  • Strengthen rapport with individuals working in

the field

  • Learn about trends and events which may not

show up in the numbers

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Upcoming Fall Qualitative Research

  • Methods
  • Focus groups, interviews, and site visits
  • Participants include practitioners, decision-

makers, and offenders

  • Travel to selected professional conferences and

locations throughout Texas

  • September 2016 – December 2016

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Upcoming Fall Qualitative Research

  • Sample questions:
  • Texas correctional populations are projected to

remain stable over the next few years. Is this a reasonable projection? Why/why not?

  • Juvenile correctional populations are expected to

increase slightly over the next few years. Is this a reasonable projection? Why/why not?

  • What legislative recommendations do you have

for the upcoming legislative session? Which is the most important recommendation?

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Correctional Population Projections and the Budget Process

  • Used by agencies to draft legislative appropriations

requests

  • Used by LBB staff to draft recommendations for the

General Appropriations bills as introduced

  • January projections are
  • an update to June projections
  • a resource for Legislators

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Questions?

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Upcoming Criminal Justice Forums

The next Criminal Justice Forum will be held Friday, October 7, 2016, at 1:30 PM.

35

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Contact the LBB

Legislative Budget Board www.lbb.state.tx.us 512.463.1200

SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 50 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3461