Outlook 2012: Outlook 2012: What to Expect in Direct & Digital - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Outlook 2012: Outlook 2012: What to Expect in Direct & Digital - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Outlook 2012: Outlook 2012: What to Expect in Direct & Digital Marketing Direct & Digital Marketing Bruce Biegel October 1, 2012 Managing Director Boston, MA Winterberry Group & Petsky Prunier LLC: Maximizing Shareholder Value of
Winterberry Group & Petsky Prunier LLC: Maximizing Shareholder Value of Companies in the Marketing Sector
- Market Intelligence
Strategic Consulting Sell-Side Representation
- Strategic Consulting
- Transaction/
Diligence Support p Corporate Divestitures
- g
pp
- Market/Competitive
Landscape Analysis Capital Raising & Private Placements B id M&A
- Industry Insight:
Publishing and Tactical Execution Buy side M&A Advisory Fairness Opinions
- Fairness Opinions
Agenda
Outlook 2012
What happened in 2011? 2012 Channel Check: The evolution of direct and digital Changing Data Landscape 9for12: What You Should 9for12: What You Should Consider for 2012
As Goes the Economy, So Goes Marketing Spending
U S GDP th l i t Months of slow economic growth have given way to heightened uncertainty, long- term GDP downgrades and a reduced ad spend outlook
C t i 2011 Gl b l Ad S d G th F t
U.S. GDP growth slowing to an average
- f 1.5% in 2011, down from higher growth
levels over the previous six quarters
Cuts in 2011 Global Ad Spend Growth Forecasts (August/September, 2011)
Consumer spending in 1H 2011 at lowest growth rate since Q2 2009 U.S. unemployment rate continues to exceed 9.0% E d bt/ i i U S European debt/currency crisis, U.S. government standoff and Middle Eastern unrest giving rise to greater global uncertainty
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Then
Sources: Trading Economics; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Company websites
uncertainty
Now
Source: Company Websites
The Recession Began An Acceleration of Spend Shift from Traditional to Digital Marketing Channels, A Trend That Continues in 2011 U.S. Marketing Spend Growth, By Channel (CAGR, 2008‐2011)
12.3% 21.1% 15% 20% 25% 5.7% 6.7% 5% 0% 5% 10%
- 12.0%
- 4.1%
- 5.6%
20%
- 15%
- 10%
- 5%
- 25%
- 20%
Print Direct Mail Broadcast Display Search Out-of- Home Email Home
Source: Winterberry Group analysis
2011: Secular Spending Declines Has Continued to Affect Most Traditional Media
2011E U.S. “Above‐the‐Line” Advertising Spending $112.6BB
Outdoor: Ci
5 0%
Radio: Outdoor: $6.4BB Cinema: $0.6BB
- 0.2%
5.0% 2.0%
Television: $55 4BB Magazines: $13.4BB
1 7%
$55.4BB Magazines: $14.3BB
- 2.2%
- 1.7%
1.7%
Newspapers: $22.4BB
- 4.2%
Source: Winterberry Group analysis Source: Winterberry Group analysis Note: Arrows reflect expected percentage change in spend, by channel, from 2010 levels
2011: Digital Channel Growth Has Once Again Paced the Market of “Below‐the‐Line” Media in 2011
2011E U.S. “Direct & Digital” Advertising Spending $163.9BB
O Statement Inserts: DR Print: $15 3BB Other: $2.8BB Statement Inserts: $0.9BB
9.1% 10.9% 2.0%
Direct Mail: $46.4BB DR Broadcast: $25 4BB $15.3BB
7 6% 2.0% 3.5%
$25.4BB Digital:
7.6%
5.6%
Teleservices: $40 1BB Digital: $32.6BB
14.0% 1.6%
Source: Winterberry Group analysis
$40.1BB
Source: Winterberry Group analysis Note: Arrows reflect expected percentage change in spend, by channel, from 2010 levels
2011: Digital Growth Driven by Rapid Mobile Adoption, Plus Reawakening of Interest in Display Advertising
2011E U.S. “Digital” Advertising Spending $32.6BB
Mobile: Social Apps & Wid t Li t i
41 2%
Mobile: $1.2BB Email: $1 6BB Widgets, Listening Platforms: $0.4BB
41.2% 18 1% 10.5%
$1.6BB
18.1%
Lead Gen & Affiliate Services: $0.2BB
6 6%
Display: $12.5BB
27.0%
14.0%
$0.2BB
6.6%
Search: $16.6BB
27.0%
Source: Winterberry Group analysis Source: Winterberry Group analysis Note: Arrows reflect expected percentage change in spend, by channel, from 2010 levels
For Marketers, Taking a Conservative Approach to Channel Investment Is The Rule, Leading to Extended Testing Cycles
As recovery slows, spending shifting back to retention, signaling lack of confidence Higher emphasis placed on reporting and l ti i d d d t t l d analytics using advanced data tools and platforms to determine ROI Marketing technology adoption—focuses on cross channel integration—beginning with digital channels Marketers invest in mobile and social, yet concerns about ROI and the mix of brand and direct marketing hinder the move from test to rollout
Source: “Quarterly Business Review” DMA & Winterberry Group, August 2011
For Suppliers, First Half Performance Is Driving Increased Investment in Staffing, Capabilities, M&A—So Far
The majority of suppliers expect higher revenues and profitability as 2011 continues With increasing economic uncertainty, staffing and new capital investment may shift into neutral Nearly 2/3 of suppliers say sales cycle is either stable
- r decreasing, largely due to shifts in buying behavior
A shift in marketer demand is driving investment in new capabilities (organic and via M&A) new capabilities (organic and via M&A) M&A activity picking up: 1H 2011 M&A in the marketing information and digital media/ commerce marketing, information and digital media/ commerce sectors up triple digits (value and volume) from 1H 2010
Sources: “Quarterly Business Review” DMA & Winterberry Group, August 2011; CMA Sales Forecast and Pipeline Survey; Petsky Prunier
Agenda
Outlook 2012
What happened in 2011? 2012 Channel Check: The evolution of direct and digital Changing Data Landscape 9for12: What You Should 9for12: What You Should Consider for 2012
Global Ad Spend, Led by Asian Region and Digital Channels, Expected to Attain 6.8% CAGR Over the Next Five Years
APAC 37%
Contribution to Global Ad Spend Growth, by Region
18 1%
2011-2016 Global CAGR By Channel ($BB)
37% Latin America 12%
11.4% 9.5% 18.1% 16.9% 15.7% 12.3%
EMEA 24% North America
7.7% 7.2% 7.2% 4.2% 2.1% 0.3%
24% America 27%
Online Video Mobile Digital OOH Paid Search Pay TV Cinema Other OOH Other Internet adcast Television Radio Newspapers Magazines Broad Source: MAGNAGLOBAL
2012: A Challenging Economic Outlook
Slow U.S. GDP growth continues: forecasts predict 2% for the year¹
- U.S. unemployment rate likely to stay above 9%
- Gas prices, fiscal tightening, and European
sovereign debt weigh down the 2012 outlook² sovereign debt weigh down the 2012 outlook
- Odds of a renewed recession put at 1 in 2³
- Reduced confidence in U.S. economy as S&P
downgrades U.S. credit rating and Moody’s lowers U.S. economic outlook through 2012
Sources: [1] “World Economic Outlook” IMF [2] Goldman Sachs [3] Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research
Direct Mail: A Tale of Two Classes
First Class Mail Standard Mail While standard mail improves, shrinking first class mail pushes USPS over the edge
First Class Mail volume down 25% since 2006, and predicted to decline Second year of solid growth; 1H 2011 Standard Mail volume up Falling through the floor due to email since 2006, and predicted to decline an additional 48% by 2020 2011 Standard Mail volume up nearly 4% from SQLY Since Standard Mail generates one- g g and other digital media substitution third the profit of First Class Mail, it cannot shore up the bottom line alone
The USPS is so low on cash that it will Our situation is extremely serious. If Congress doesn’t act, we will default. not be able to make a $5.5 billion payment due this [September] and may have to shut down entirely this winter unless Congress takes emergency — Patrick R. Donahoe, U.S. Postmaster General action to stabilize its finances. –The New York Times
Sources: Post and Parcel; Postal Regulatory Commission
Direct Mail’s Place in the Marketing Mix Has Changed
Th f di t il h hift d Direct mail moving from a direct-response-only approach to key player in the multichannel world The purpose of direct mail has shifted… …from direct order…. …to driving sales online or in-store
The catalog is great driver for sales online and in
- stores. We’re not publishing with the idea of
p g creating an [independent] direct marketing
- business. It’s the idea of driving traffic into stores
and giving the sense of a brand.
- Ellen Smolyar,
y Senior Manager of Sales and Circulation at Crate & Barrel
Direct Mail 2012: No Real Catalyst for Continued Strong Growth
Continued erosion (substitution) of first class advertising, statement and informational mailings will hold down retention mail growth while acquisition fights an uphill battle for marketers’ share of mind and wallet
While 2010 and 2011 were bounce-back years for direct mail, 2012’s forecast predicts anemic 1-2% growth rate
$47.5 $48.0 $47.4 $48.0
U.S. Direct Mail Marketing Spend ($BB)
$43.8 $44.9 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E Source: Winterberry Group, June 2011
Digital Channels Continue to Mature, Capturing New Spend and Taking Share From All Other Media
U.S. Advertising and Marketing Spending, by Share of Approach 2007-2011E (US$BB) 30-35% of media now consumed via digital channels, with social continuing t b b ti d i i
$350 $400 Digital BTL ATL
2007 2011E (US$BB)
6%
to absorb time and impressions Standardization of digital metrics fueling broader adoption
$250 $300
6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 55% 55% 55% 56%
Channel integration and optimization a major marketer priority fueling broader adoption
$100 $150 $200
57% 55% 56%
a major marketer priority Digital spend growth continues to be driven by search and display
$0 $50 $
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 40% 38% 35% 36% 34%
driven by search and display Faster mobile/social spending shifts delayed by talent / knowledge gaps
2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
Source: Winterberry Group analysis of various sources, 2011
delayed by talent / knowledge gaps
Source: eMarketer
Social, Mobile and Search Have Experienced Biggest Spend Gains, But 2012 May Tell a Different Story
WG Marketer Survey: To what extent has the spend allocated to the following channels changed d t SQLY?
Priorities in the marketing mix are constantly
3.9 4.1
Search Social
Social Search
compared to SQLY?
mix are constantly changing: Today, marketers have increased spend in
3.5 3.6 3.8
Oth E–Mail Online Display Advertising Mobile Marketing
Mobile Marketing Online Display Advertising Email O h
increased spend in social, search and mobile advertising compared to last year
3 1 3.1 3.3 3.4
Broadcast: TV & Radio Direct Mail: Non-catalog Out-of-Home / Outdoor Other
Other Place-based Media/DOOH Broadcast: TV & Radio Direct Mail: Non-catalog 3.0+ = Increasing Popularity
compared to last year. One year ago, marketers said the biggest spend increases over the past
2.9 3 3.1 1 2 3 4 5
Direct Mail: Catalog Print: Newspaper & Magazine
Direct Mail: Non catalog Print: Newspapers & Mags Direct Mail: Catalog g p y
increases over the past 12 months had come in email, social and display
1 2 3 4 5 N = 105 Source: “Quarterly Business Review” DMA & Winterberry Group, August 2011 and August 2010
display.
Search: 2012 Spending Expected to Reach $19.4BB, Up 10.2% YOY, With No Slowdown in Sight
Still the most dependable channel for ROI Increase in focus on SEO to complement rising SEM spend
$20.5 $22.0 $19 4
U.S. Search Marketing Spend ($BB)
7% CAGR
Local search accounts for 40% of all search, drawing SMB marketer spending Search retargeting enables marketers to
$19.4 $16.6 $15.6 $14.6
46% 44% 43% 44% 44%
Search retargeting enables marketers to take the power of search and apply it to display, with the added benefits of real time
- ptimization and attribution
2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
46% 43%
Demand-side platforms (DSPs) integrate search in an effort to improve multichannel
- ptimization and attribution
2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E Source: Winterberry Group, June 2011
marketing and attribution
Source: Google
Display: 2012 Spending to $12.8BB, Up 21.9% YOY, Driven by Audience Targeting and Video Adoption
Marketers shift to audience targeting, seeking performance improvements through the use of primarily DSP analytics, digital
$18 0
U.S. Display Marketing Spend ($BB)
Significant rise in automated exchange- b d b i f t ti d id di l the use of primarily DSP analytics, digital data and display retargeting techniques
$15.5 $18.0 $12.5 $12.8
14% CAGR
based buying of static and video display using real time data driven bidding (RTB), accounts for ~10% of all display spend
$8.4 $9.3
Online video ad spend expected to grow to $3.0 billion in 2012, up from $1.9 billion in
- 2011. By 2015, it will account for 1/3 of all
display spend Facebook accounts for one in three (31.2%)
- f all display ad impressions, although its
Source: Winterberry Group, June 2011 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
Includes social display
Sources: Cream; eMarketer; Vator News
- f all display ad impressions, although its
share of revenue is significantly lower
E‐mail: Spending Up 12.5% to $1.8BB, Database Segmentation and Targeting Driving Email Spend
Remains the most cost effective media for retention functions, volumes continue to surge Utilization expansion tied to the proliferation of devices, smartphone and tablet adoption, along with e-commerce, location-based emails and daily deal
$2.0 $2.2 $1 8
11% CAGR
U.S. Email Marketing Spend ($BB)
Improvements in segmentation and database-driven versioning are primary drivers of spend increases - , y sites
$1.2 $1.4 $1.6 $1.8
versioning are primary drivers of spend increases - not volume of emails as CPMs continue to shrink Unique click to conversion rates have increased steadily in 2010 and 2011(Q2 2011 up14.6% over Q1 2011 and up 6.2% over Q2 2010)
Spending negatively impacted by
2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E Source: Winterberry Group, June 2011
Spending negatively impacted by price compression
Source: “Q2 2011 North America Email Trends and Benchmarks Results” Epsilon & DMA
Mobile: 2012 Spending at $1.7BB, Up 41.7% YOY —The ”Year of Mobile Rollout” Led By Device Proliferation and Marketer Experience
$2 946 $3 000
U.S. Mobile Ad Revenues
Early adopters move from test to rollout; mainstream marketers build mobile- friendly sites (20% have mobile-optimized Location-based targeting technologies advancing but data for segmentation and
$2,946 $2,500 $3,000
y ( p sites today) advancing, but data for segmentation and connection a challenge Growth of m commerce: Global m
$1,500 $2,000 d ($MMs)
Growth of m-commerce: Global m- commerce revenues forecasted to reach $10BB by 2012 and $119BB in 2015²
$491 $1,000 Spen
84% of in-store shoppers are doing some type of mobile activity while they shop, such as comparing prices (70%),
$0 $500 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
accessing product reviews (67%)¹ and using retail apps
Sources: [1] WhiteHorse, [2] Forrester and BitWizards, [3] GetJar, [4] Nielsen
Digital Couponing: Rise in Mobile Usage Driving Rapid Adoption of Digital Formats
47% of Americans on the Internet will claim at least one digital coupon in 2011 increasing to 49% by 2013 2011, increasing to 49% by 2013 Digital coupons redeem at a much higher rate than FSI coupons — between Unique visitors to daily deal sites Groupon higher rate than FSI coupons between 5% and 20%, compared with 0.9%
In the first eight months of 2011, 300 new daily deals site
q y p and LivingSocial grew by triple-digit rates between mid-2010 and mid-2011, yet few barriers to entry exist
300
300 new daily deals site launched, while 132 such sites went out of business
Rise of location-based and instant digital coupons track increases in in-store mobile usage including apps and digital
132 Sources: eMarketer; MediaPost; ABI Research; Compete, Yipit
mobile usage, including apps and digital signage
- 132
Social Media: 2012 U.S. Ad Revenues Up 27.7% YOY to $3.9BB, Growth Slows But Brand Dollars Accelerate
Social media revenue ramps (31.6% forecast CAGR through 2015) from multiple streams:
Coming Soon?
Social adoption and time spent slows: i l di f ti t i l subscription, social currency and advertising social media fatigue sets in among some early adopters, leading to fewer unique visitors and less time spent on social network sites High valuations are likely to come down as advertisers decide where to place their social
- dollars. Facebook and LinkedIn may catch up
t th i i to their revenue promise Marketers increasing investment focus in social media analytics to address concerns y
- ver ROI and measurability
Sources: BIA/Kelsey; eMarketer; Nielsen Wire; Bizo
65% of Marketers Say Social is The Channel They Will Focus On Most in the Next 12 Months: Are They Asking the Right Questions?
As social media matures and becomes part of the fabric of everyday life, marketers must ask themselves marketers must ask themselves fundamental questions….
Wh I i i l di ?
- Why am I using social media?
- How do I increase engagement?
- How do I increase modernization?
Social Media for M k ti P
- How do I measure social media?
- Should I focus on branding or direct
response?
Marketing Purposes is About…
Source: Bizo
Addressable TV: Offers Marketers Enhanced Tracking and Targeting to a Larger Audience
Most major cable providers have enabled addressable TV through their set-top boxes on at least a pilot basis In a recent test by Starcom MediaVest addressable TV at least a pilot basis MediaVest, addressable TV resulted in: Universal media-buying standards still do not exist (as many set-top boxes are obsolete), Many networks are aggressively pursuing addressable TV to offset inhibiting media buying at scale
65% 32%
pursuing addressable TV to offset diminishing affiliate fees from cable providers Once addressable TV extends to all
65% increase in efficiency (how much 32% increase in effectiveness (viewers
Once addressable TV extends to all U.S. households, as soon as 2015, it could bring in $10 billion in incremental ad revenue to
efficiency (how much money advertisers can save by delivering ads to those homes in which they are interested) effectiveness (viewers less likely to turn away from an addressable ad than a non-addressable ad)
Sources: Comcast Spotlight and Starcom MediaVest Group
incremental ad revenue to television
Agenda
Outlook 2012
What happened in 2011? 2012 Channel Check: The evolution of direct and digital Changing Data Landscape 9for12: What You Should 9for12: What You Should Consider for 2012
2012: Year of Digital Data and Analytics Taking Off
What’s at stake: The ability to pull together data from online and offline sources in
- rder to optimize conversations with the audience via the right device at the
right time
T ti l dd d f h
Offline Imagine being able to 1) create a single view of a user and 2) use all those data
Psychographic and behavioral Social compiled from social sites, Transactional added from purchase records, cooperative databases
Offline Providers Offline C il Social Sites / Online and 2) use all those data assets to make smarter decisions about how to talk to each user you encounter through your digital media
a d be a o a compiled from surveys, analytical models , blogs, sharing sites,
?
Compilers Providers Portals / through your digital media initiatives, your site-side messaging, etc. That’s what I think makes the DMP powerful – bringing data intelligence to
Geo- D hi Online Data Types:
- Registrations
?
Publishers Portals / Online Compilers bringing data intelligence to every digital interaction a marketer has with users.
- Joanna O'Connell, Forrester
Analyst
Demographic compiled from publishers, databases and
- ther third parties
g
- Cookies (Flash) /
browsing activities
- Social networks
- Online purchase
data I k t h
Analyst
- In-market purchase
intent
Marketers Are Seeking to Align Their Internal Marketing Processes, Platforms and People, Decisioning Engine Development is Key
Marketing Data & Content Asset Layer Real-Time Decisioning Engines Integrated Data Management Marketing Execution & Response
DSP forms rm(s)
Geographic Geographic D hi Demographic
Site
SSP ion Platf nt Platfor
Demographic Demographic Channel Preference Channel Preference
Interaction Engine Channel Interaction Engine
g Executi nagemen
Social Social Transactional Transactional
Lead Scoring Engine Yield
Marketing Data Man
Intent Data Intent Data
Yield Mgmt.
M D
Web Site Data Web Site Data
These Changes Are Shifting The Balance of Influence in the Data Industry—and Offsetting Most Mail‐Related Spending Declines
U.S. Spending, Marketing Data & Related Services (2008-2012E)
Online Display-Related Data Spending1
$10 8BB
E-mail-Related Data Spending2 Direct Mail-Related Data Spending3
$11.9BB $10.8BB $9.9BB
Spending on Digital Data
$310MM $830MM 7.0% $510MM 6.2% 2.9%
2008 2010 2012E
(1) Online display-related data spending includes retargeting services intent data / inferred data offline data used for online marketing (1) Online display-related data spending includes retargeting services, intent data / inferred data, offline data used for online marketing (2) E-mail-related data spending includes e-mail lists, database management / hygiene and analytics services (3) Direct mail-related data spending includes mailing lists, database management / hygiene and analytics services Source: Winterberry Group analysis of various sources
Marketers Face Data Governance Challenges, Such as Consumer Privacy, Data Security and Data Rights Management
Consumers have the right to know that their information is being collected and used by companies in a safe and legitimate way in order to ensure that individuals are g y protected in the event of a data security breach. Common sense commercial privacy laws are needed to impose accountability and security requirements on the companies involved. Consumer p
- Sen. John Kerry,
Chairman of the US Senate’s Subcommittee on Communications, Technology & the Internet Privacy D Data S it Data Rights Data Governance Security Management
Agenda
Outlook 2012
What happened in 2011? 2012 Channel Check: The evolution of direct and digital Changing Data Landscape 9for12: What You Should 9for12: What You Should Consider for 2012
9for12
It is the (another) Year of Data: Marketers will begin to approach the growing Big Data problem, developing plans on how to manage and activate data across channels Early adopters begin
1
manage and activate data across channels. Early adopters begin to implement solutions including integrating online DMPs with
- ffline prospect and CRM data sets to manage the conversation
with disparate audiences across devices Content is the new black: Content, recognized as the primary
2
driver of engagement (along with the data that informs it), marketers and their agencies begin to wrap their arms around content marketing, including the continual creation, curation
2
content marketing, including the continual creation, curation (finding, organizing, sharing), editing and active management – in
- rder to organize content across channels and devices – and
content is just another “unstructured” form of big data to deal with content is just another unstructured form of big data to deal with
9for12
Mobile: recognizing that mobile is about devices (tablets,
3
g g ( , smartphones, computers), location and intent, marketers accelerate the transformation of web sites from PC design (currently 80% of sites are PC only) to device specific sites tablet sites smartphone sites
3
are PC only) to device specific sites – tablet sites, smartphone sites and PC sites. Cross digital media buying search display and email) driven by first Cross digital media buying search, display and email), driven by first, second and third party data experiences significant performance improvements as attribution solutions mature and are better able to
4
identify the impact (engagement relationships) across channels…driving more digital spend
9for12
Improved marketing technology stacks, assembled via acquisition in 2010-2011 by large tech players (IBM, Adobe, Google) release the
5
in 2010 2011 by large tech players (IBM, Adobe, Google) release the first sets of integrated products, primarily for enterprise marketers, that can automate the marketing process from campaign planning through execution and attribution through execution and attribution. USPS postal crisis is put to rest as the administration and congress accept a portion of the recommendations put forth by the postmaster general including a reduction in post offices and SCFs though the 6
6
general including a reduction in post offices and SCFs, though the 6 day week is more likely to remain in place. Force reductions will complemented by an agreement on a partial pension reform
9for12
The pace of M&A accelerates in the ad tech (digital display) sector along with continued agency consolidation of those with mobile/social
7
along with continued agency consolidation of those with mobile/social
- specialties. Emerging attribution providers and data companies see
renewed interest to complement the push towards digital cross- channel integration Smaller ad tech firms that have not gained channel integration. Smaller ad tech firms that have not gained traction experience reduced funding forcing asset sales and closures. Privacy regulation, mostly quiet in 2011, moves back into the Washington conversation as legislators continue to examine the impact of EU privacy laws enacted this year Probable outcomes
8
impact of EU privacy laws enacted this year. Probable outcomes include data (breach) security legislation and some form of baseline privacy rules around sensitive information – though not a Do Not Track (DNT) bill.
9for12
And finally – the economy. If the US goes into a recesssion it will negatively impact all measured media channels along with direct mail
9
negatively impact all measured media channels along with direct mail spend while slowing (not stopping) the rate of growth in the digital
- sector. Marketers will stick to longer test periods as spend tilts back