Oshkosh Corporation Jefferies 2013 Industrials Conference August - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

oshkosh corporation
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Oshkosh Corporation Jefferies 2013 Industrials Conference August - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oshkosh Corporation Jefferies 2013 Industrials Conference August 2013 David M. Sagehorn Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Patrick N. Davidson Vice President of Investor Relations OSK Investor Slides August 2013


slide-1
SLIDE 1

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Oshkosh Corporation

Jefferies 2013 Industrials Conference

August 2013

David M. Sagehorn Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Patrick N. Davidson Vice President of Investor Relations

slide-2
SLIDE 2

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Forward-Looking Statements

This presentation contains statements that the Company believes to be “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding the Company’s future financial position, business strategy, targets, projected sales, costs, earnings, capital expenditures, debt levels and cash flows, and plans and objectives of management for future operations, are forward-looking statements. When used in this presentation, words such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “intend,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “should,” “project” or “plan” or the negative thereof or variations thereon or similar terminology are generally intended to identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors, some of which are beyond the Company’s control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking

  • statements. These factors include the cyclical nature of the Company’s access equipment, commercial and fire & emergency

markets, especially in the current environment where there are conflicting signs regarding the global economic outlook and the ability of the U.S. government to resolve budgetary and debt issues; the expected level and timing of the DoD procurement of products and services and funding thereof; risks related to reductions in government expenditures in light of U.S. defense budget pressures, sequestration and an uncertain DoD tactical wheeled vehicle strategy, including the Company’s ability to successfully manage the cost reductions required as a result of the significant projected decrease in sales levels in the defense segment; the Company’s ability to increase prices to raise margins or offset higher input costs; increasing commodity and other raw material costs, particularly in a sustained economic recovery; risks related to facilities consolidation and alignment, including the amounts of related costs and charges and that anticipated cost savings may not be achieved; the duration of the ongoing global economic weakness, which could lead to additional impairment charges related to many of the Company’s intangible assets and/or a slower recovery in the Company’s cyclical businesses than Company or equity market expectations; risks related to the collectability of receivables, particularly for those businesses with exposure to construction markets; the cost of any warranty campaigns related to the Company’s products; risks related to production or shipment delays arising from quality or production issues; risks associated with international operations and sales, including foreign currency fluctuations and compliance with the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act; the Company’s ability to comply with complex laws and regulations applicable to U.S. government contractors; and risks related to the Company’s ability to successfully execute on its strategic road map and meet its long-term financial goals. Additional information concerning these and other factors is contained in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Form 8-K filed July 30, 2013. All forward-looking statements speak only as of July 30, 2013. The Company assumes no obligation, and disclaims any

  • bligation, to update information contained in this presentation. Investors should be aware that the Company may not update

such information until the Company’s next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all.

2

slide-3
SLIDE 3

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Oshkosh Corporation – (NYSE: OSK)

  • Four Strong Segments
  • Employees (2): ~12,200

(1) Non-GAAP results. See Appendix for reconciliation to GAAP results. (2) As of August 1, 2013.

3

  • Market Cap (2): $3.9B
  • Incorporated in 1917

Q3 YTD Performance FY13 FY12 % Change Revenue $5.94B $6.09B (2.5%)

Solid non-defense growth largely offset anticipated defense decline

Adjusted EPS (1) $3.23 $1.66 94.6%

Strong growth despite lower defense revenue

Free Cash Flow (1) $216M $38M 568.0%

Consistent generator of strong FCF

slide-4
SLIDE 4

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

FY15 Targets

MOVE – The Right Strategy

Summary of Primary Opportunities – FY12 to FY15

  • Focuses on drivers that create

highest shareholder value

  • Expected to drive higher

incremental margins across non- Defense businesses over cycle

(1) Expected benefits of market recovery captured in financial estimates vs. September 2012 Analyst Day estimate of FY12. Does not include benefits of other MOVE initiatives. (2) Net of investment costs and compared with consolidated FY11 operating income margins. (3) Compared with FY12.

Initiative

4

slide-5
SLIDE 5

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Poised to Deliver Results

Expect to overcome effects of defense downturn

  • MOVE strategy expected to deliver higher margins throughout cycle
  • Strong Q3 FY13 revenue and income performance
  • Oshkosh processes and team support execution of MOVE

– Powered by Oshkosh Operating System Industry Leading Brands (1)

Access Equipment #1 Global Fire Apparatus #1 Global Airport Products #1 Global Defense TWV (2) #1 Global Concrete Mixers #1 Americas Refuse Collection #1 Americas

* Non-GAAP results. See Appendix for reconciliation to GAAP results. (1) Based on Company estimates. (2) Oshkosh Defense is the leading supplier of heavy and medium tactical wheeled vehicles for the U.S. Armed Services.

5

slide-6
SLIDE 6

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

The Access Equipment Advantage

JLG is positioned for sustained industry leading performance

Global Leader in Access Equipment Industry Leading Innovation Superior Product Range Full Spectrum Parts, Service, and Support Flexible Manufacturing and Supply Chain Global Market Presence

6

slide-7
SLIDE 7

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

North American Rental Companies

Refreshing Their Fleets, Increasing Market Penetration

Total Construction Spending (Y-O-Y % Change) NA Rental Equipment Access - Fleet Age (AWP and TMH)

NA Rental Equipment Company Fleet Utilization NA Rental Equipment Company CapEx (Y-O-Y % Change)

Source: IHS Global data/projections, August, 2013 Based on International Rental News/Dan Kaplan sample of medium to large NA rental equipment companies (United Rental, RSC, H&E, HERC). Based on International Rental News/Dan Kaplan sample of medium to large NA rental equipment companies (United Rental, RSC, HERC, Ameco, Neff).

(% Change) (% Time Utilization) (% Change)

Source: Rouse Rental Report. Calendar year-end data for 2009-12

40 45 50 55 60 2009 2010 2011 2012

Age (months)

‐90 ‐60 ‐30 30 60 90 120 150 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CapEx

(Age in Months)

7

50 55 60 65 70 75 1 Q ' 1 2 Q ' 1 3 Q ' 1 4 Q ' 1 1 Q ' 1 1 2 Q ' 1 1 3 Q ' 1 1 4 Q ' 1 1 1 Q ' 1 2 2 Q ' 1 2 3 Q ' 1 2 4 Q ' 1 2 1 Q ' 1 3 2 Q ' 1 3

  • Ind. Avg.

‐20 ‐10 10 20 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E United States Canada

slide-8
SLIDE 8

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Positive North America Leading Indicators

Source: Rouse Asset Services, July 2013.

AWP – Articulating Boom 52.0

Average Age (in months) Recent Used Equipment Value Trends (OLV)

U.S. Housing Starts Seasonally Adjusted Rate 2013 2012 Change June 836,000 757,000 +10.4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July 2013.

AWP – Scissor Lifts 56.1 AWP – Telescopic Boom 55.1

39.7% 43.4%

35.0 40.0 45.0

OLV (% of Cost)

38.4% 43.4%

35.0 40.0 45.0

OLV (% of Cost)

30.9% 31.2%

30.0 32.5 35.0

OLV (% of Cost)

8

slide-9
SLIDE 9

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

The Oshkosh Defense Advantage

Defense Engineering & Product Development Scalable Manufacturing & Operations Vertical Integration of Specialized Components Defense Program Management Vehicle Fleet Modernization Service, Lifecycle Sustainment

Defense industry expertise that leverages the full capabilities of Oshkosh Corporation

9

slide-10
SLIDE 10

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

L-ATV

The Oshkosh JLTV Solution

  • The future of light tactical vehicles
  • JLTV EMD contract award

– 22 prototypes for evaluation – Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) testing begins late 2013 – Decision expected early 2015

  • Oshkosh JLTV solution

– Oshkosh TAK-4i intelligent independent suspension system – Latest automotive technologies – Advanced crew protection system

  • Low rate initial production

expected in 2016 for contract winner

10

slide-11
SLIDE 11

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

The Fire & Emergency Advantage

Innovation Leader Premier Distribution and Service Unrivaled Product Performance #1 Brands

Leading global provider of specialty vehicles that serve, protect and save lives

11

slide-12
SLIDE 12

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Domestic Fire Market Drivers Stabilizing

  • Housing prices recovering, property taxes growing

Recent Headlines New Home Sales Hit Five- Year High, Prices Soar

  • Reuters, July 24, 2013

Construction Spending in U.S. Rises, Led By Residential Projects

  • Bloomberg, July 1, 2013

Apocalypse, Not Now, for Municipal Bonds

  • Barron’s, April 23, 2013

HOUSING PRICES & LOCAL PROPERTY TAXES

12

slide-13
SLIDE 13

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

The Commercial Advantage

Broadest Product Line Direct Distribution, Customer Intimacy Scalable, Flexible Manufacturing & Operations Access to Technology, Alternative Fuels Leadership Innovation and New Product Development Best in Class Aftermarket Service and Support

Integrated factory Refuse collection vehicle product line Alternative fuel technology

Street Smart, Street Tough

13

slide-14
SLIDE 14

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

  • U.S. housing starts assumed by OSK**: 0.8 million in FY13; 1.2 million in FY14; and

1.4 million in FY15

  • June 2013 U.S. housing starts* at 836,000

Construction: Substantial Opportunity with Modest Recovery

Housing Starts and Mixer Shipments (1959-2012)

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Mixer Units Shipped

Housing Starts (000s)

Housing Starts Mixer Units Shipped

14 Sources: Housing Starts - U.S. Census Bureau. Mixer Shipments - Truck Mixer Manufacturers Bureau; U.S. and Canada.

0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E Housing Starts (units in millions)

U.S. Housing Starts Forecast

Moodys Portland Cement Association Global Insight Average Analyst Estimate

slide-15
SLIDE 15

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

MOVE at Work in Q3*

  • Q3 EPS of $1.67

– Nearly double Q3 FY12 – Access equipment and defense segments led the way

  • MOVE initiatives gaining

momentum

  • Benefited from positive

market conditions in North America

  • Repurchased 1.1 million

shares

– 5.4 million shares YTD

  • Increased FY13 adjusted

EPS** estimate range

– $3.60 to $3.70

15

Net Sales

(millions)

EPS

OSK Fiscal Q3 Performance

$2,204 $2,160 $1.67 $0.84 $0.00 $0.25 $0.50 $0.75 $1.00 $1.25 $1.50 $1.75 $2.00 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 FY13 FY12 Net Sales EPS

* Continuing operations only. * * FY13 expectations exclude certain non-GAAP adjustments (see Appendix).

slide-16
SLIDE 16

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Recent Performance

Access Equipment

  • Continue to benefit from replacement demand in

North America

  • Global conditions remain mixed

Defense

  • Strong operations execution; effectively managing

recent downsizing

  • Continuing to pursue international business

Fire & Emergency

  • Municipal demand improving, federal demand

remains low

  • Benefitting from international sales

Commercial

  • Concrete mixer deliveries and orders remain strong
  • Continuing to invest in MOVE

16

slide-17
SLIDE 17

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Higher Expectations for FY13*

17

Additional Expectations

  • Adjusted corporate expenses ~$145 million

(higher share-based compensation and IT investments vs. FY12)

  • Tax rate of ~29.5%
  • CapEx of ~$45 million
  • Free cash flow ~$275-$300 million
  • Average full year share count** of 88.8 million

Segment Information Measure Access Equipment Defense Fire & Emergency Commercial

Sales (billions) ~$3.1 ~$3.1 Nearly $0.8 $0.72 - $0.75 Operating Income Margin 12.0%-12.25% ~7.5% 2.0%-2.5% 4.5%-5.0%

  • Revenue range of $7.6 billion to $7.7 billion
  • Adjusted operating income range of $515 million to $525 million
  • Adjusted EPS from continuing operations range of $3.60 to $3.70

Comments on Fourth Quarter

  • Expect lowest quarter EPS of the

year due to seasonality and defense sales decline.

* FY13 expectations reflect certain non-GAAP adjustments (see Appendix). ** Excludes impact of any additional share repurchases in Q4.

slide-18
SLIDE 18

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Committed to Shareholders

  • Aggressively driving to achieve MOVE targets

– Earnings per share of $4.00 to $4.50 in 2015

  • Attacking product, process and overhead

costs

  • Applying disciplined capital allocation strategy
  • Will sustain active shareholder outreach
  • Deploying Oshkosh Operating System globally

to sustain lean culture and drive results

18

slide-19
SLIDE 19

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

For more information contact:

Patrick N. Davidson Vice President, Investor Relations (920) 966-5939 pdavidson@oshkoshcorp.com Jeffrey D. Watt Director, Investor Relations (920) 233-9406 jwatt@oshkoshcorp.com

slide-20
SLIDE 20

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Net Sales $941.5 $814.6 % Change 15.6% 40.4% Operating Income $154.5 $88.2 % Change 75.1% 199.7% % Margin 16.4% 10.8%

Third Quarter

(Dollars in millions)

2013 2012

Appendix: Q3 Access Equipment

  • Sales impacted by:

 Higher volume in North America  Price realization  Higher aftermarket volume  Lower volume in Australia

  • Margins impacted by:

 Price realization  Product and process cost reduction  Product mix

  • Backlog down 15% vs.

prior year to $621 million

 Mostly due to lower military backlog

Comments

20

slide-21
SLIDE 21

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Appendix: Defense

  • Sales impacted by:

 Lower U.S. DoD volume  International truck shipments

  • Margins impacted by:

 Higher international sales mix  Finalization of UCA pricing  Operational efficiencies

  • Backlog down 42% vs.

prior year to $1.9 billion

Comments

Net Sales $879.6 $958.5 % Change (8.2)% (13.4)% Operating Income $85.8 $40.2 % Change 113.8% (64.3)% % Margin 9.8% 4.2%

Third Quarter

(Dollars in millions)

2013 2012

21

slide-22
SLIDE 22

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Net Sales $204.3 $229.6 % Change (11.0)% 10.1% Operating Income $6.5 $8.1 % Change (18.8)% (39.6)% % Margin 3.2% 3.5%

Third Quarter*

(Dollars in millions)

2013 2012

Appendix: Q3 Fire & Emergency

  • Sales impacted by:

 Lower unit volumes

  • Margins impacted by:

 Lower absorption  Price realization

  • Backlog* essentially flat

with prior year at $503 million

Comments

22

* Continuing operations only.

slide-23
SLIDE 23

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Appendix: Commercial

  • Sales impacted by:

+ Higher concrete mixer sales + Higher content units  Lower RCV sales

  • Margins impacted by:

 Restructuring related costs

  • Backlog up 13% vs. prior

year to $167 million

23

Comments

Net Sales $194.7 $176.2 % Change 10.5% 11.2% Operating Income $10.0 $12.1 % Change (17.8)% 224.3% % Margin 5.1% 6.9%

Third Quarter

(Dollars in millions)

2013 2012

slide-24
SLIDE 24

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Appendix: Commonly Used Acronyms

24

ARFF Aircraft Rescue and Firefighting M-ATV MRAP All-Terrain Vehicle AWP Aerial Work Platform MECV Modernized Expanded Capability Vehicle CapEx Capital Expenditures MRAP Mine Resistant Ambush Protected CNG Compressed Natural Gas MSVS Medium Support Vehicle System (Canada) DoD Department of Defense NPD New Product Development EAME Europe, Africa & Middle East NOL Net Operating Loss EMD Engineering & Manufacturing Development OI Operating Income EPS Diluted Earnings Per Share PLS Palletized Load System FHTV Family of Heavy Tactical Vehicles PUC Pierce Ultimate Configuration FMS Foreign Military Sales R&D Research & Development FMTV Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles RCV Refuse Collection Vehicle HEMTT Heavy Expanded Mobility Tactical Truck RFP Request for Proposal HET Heavy Equipment Transporter ROW Rest of World HMMWV High Mobility Multi-Purpose Wheeled Vehicle SMP Standard Military Pattern (Canadian MSVS) IT Information Technology TACOM Tank-automotive and Armaments Command JLTV Joint Light Tactical Vehicle TDP Technical Data Package JPO Joint Program Office TFFT Tactical Fire Fighting Truck JROC Joint Requirements Oversight Council TPV Tactical Protector Vehicle JUONS Joint Urgent Operational Needs Statement TWV Tactical Wheeled Vehicle L-ATV Light Combat Tactical All-Terrain Vehicle UCA Undefinitized Contract Action LVSR Logistic Vehicle System Replacement UIK Underbody Improvement Kit (for M-ATV)

slide-25
SLIDE 25

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Appendix: Non-GAAP to GAAP Reconciliation

25

  • The table below presents a reconciliation of the Company’s presented non-GAAP measures to the

most directly comparable GAAP measures (in millions, except per share amounts):

Fiscal 2013 Expectations Corporate Non-GAAP operating expenses (145.0) $ Tender offer and proxy contest costs (16.3) GAAP operating expenses (161.3) $ Low High Consolidated Non-GAAP operating income 515.0 $ 525.0 $ Tender offer and proxy contest costs (16.3) (16.3) GAAP operating income 498.7 $ 508.7 $ Non-GAAP earnings per share attributable to Oshkosh Corporation from continuing operations-diluted 3.60 $ 3.70 $ Tender offer and proxy contest costs, net of tax (0.11) (0.11) GAAP earnings per share attributable to Oshkosh Corporation from continuing operations-diluted 3.49 $ 3.59 $ Net cash flows provided by operating activities 335.0 $ 360.0 $ Additions to property, plant and equipment (45.0) (45.0) Additions to equipment held for rental (19.0) (19.0) Proceeds from sale of equipment held for rental 4.0 4.0 Free cash flow 275.0 $ 300.0 $

Fiscal 2013 Expectations

slide-26
SLIDE 26

OSK Investor Slides August 2013

Appendix: Non-GAAP to GAAP Reconciliation (Cont’d)

26

  • The table below presents a reconciliation of the Company’s presented non-GAAP measures to the

most directly comparable GAAP measures (in millions, except per share amounts):

2013 2012 Non-GAAP earnings per share attributable to Oshkosh Corporation from continuing operations-diluted 3.23 $ 1.66 $ Tender offer and proxy contest costs, net of tax (0.11) (0.05) Discrete tax benefits

  • 0.15

GAAP earnings per share attributable to Oshkosh Corporation from continuing operations-diluted 3.12 $ 1.76 $ Nine Months Ended June 30, 2013 2012 Net cash flows provided by operating activities 247.5 $ 74.3 $ Additions to property, plant and equipment (25.2) (33.9) Additions to equipment held for rental (13.1) (5.9) Proceeds from sale of equipment held for rental 6.9 3.2 Free cash flow 216.1 $ 37.7 $ Nine Months Ended June 30,