One w ay to value diversity the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

One w ay to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent Wolfgang Cramer Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) & Institut für Geoökologie, Universität Potsdam

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Wolfgang Cramer

Erdsystemanalyse, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Institut für Geoökologie, Universität Potsdam

One way to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

One w ay to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent

• Assessment or research?
• Conditions/ trends vs. scenarios
• Global vs. regional
• From a conceptual framework to factual

findings

• Key findings of the MA

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

One w ay to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent

• Assessment or research?
• Conditions/ trends vs. scenarios
• Global vs. regional
• From a conceptual framework to factual

findings

• Key findings of the MA

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Assessm ent or research?

Assessment:

• Concern for possible damage (early observations of

damage or recognised risks for future)

• Assembling knowledge about system behaviour
• Identification of (multiple!) forcings
• (Intelligent) extrapolation of trends

– models (statistical, mechanistic...) – scenarios (multiple!) for expected trends in forcings

• Interpretation: valuation and assessment

Research:

• supplies all of the above with knowledge/

understanding

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Tw o m ajor recent assessm ents: I ntergovernm ental Panel on Clim ate Change ( I PCC) / Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent ( MA)

IPCC:

• supports UN Framework Convention on Climate

Change

• main decisions taken by government representatives
• line-by-line approval of executive summary

MA:

• supports UN Conventions on Biodiversity, Wetlands,

Desertification etc.

• main decisions taken by board
• no government approval procedure

IPCC & MA: Only scientific results are considered

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Largest assessm ent of the status of Earth’s ecosystem s

• Experts and Review Process

– Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries – 80-person independent board of review editors – Review comments from 850 experts and governments – Includes information from 33 sub-global assessments

• Governance

– Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000 – Authorized by governments through 4 conventions (Biodiversity, Climate, Desertification, Wetlands).

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

One w ay to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent

• Assessment or research?
• Conditions/ trends vs. scenarios
• Global vs. regional
• From a conceptual framework to factual

findings

• Key findings of the MA

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Ecosystem s and hum an w ell-being

• A Framework for Assessment
• Current State and Trends (Volume 1)
• Scenarios (Volume 2)
• Policy Responses (Volume 3)
• Multiscale Assessments (Volume 4)
• Our Human Planet: Summary for Decision-

makers

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Conditions and Trends I: General Concepts and Analytical Approaches II: An Assessment of Ecosystem Services III: An Assessment of Systems from which Ecosystem Services Are Derived IV: Synthesis

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Scenarios I: State of Knowledge Concerning Ecosystem Forecasts and Scenarios II: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios III: Implications of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

One w ay to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent

• Assessment or research?
• Conditions/ trends vs. scenarios
• Global vs. regional
• From a conceptual framework to factual

findings

• Key findings of the MA

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

One w ay to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent

• Assessment or research?
• Conditions/ trends vs. scenarios
• Global vs. regional
• From a conceptual framework to factual

findings

• Key findings of the MA

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Ecosystem s and hum an w ell-being

• A Framework for Assessment
• Current State and Trends (Volume 1)
• Scenarios (Volume 2)
• Policy Responses (Volume 3)
• Multiscale Assessments (Volume 4)
• Our Human Planet: Summary for Decision-

makers

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Hum an W ell-being

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Ecosystem s and hum an w ell-being

• A Framework for Assessment
• Conditions and Trends (Volume 1)
• Scenarios (Volume 2)
• Policy Responses (Volume 3)
• Multiscale Assessments (Volume 4)
• Our Human Planet: Summary for Decision-

makers

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Conditions and Trends I: General Concepts and Analytical Approaches II: An Assessment of Ecosystem Services III: An Assessment of Systems from which Ecosystem Services Are Derived IV: Synthesis

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Conditions and Trends I I: General Concepts and Analytical Approaches

• 1. MA Conceptual Framework
• 2. Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem

Condition and Human Well-being

• 3. Drivers of Ecosystem Change
• 4. Biodiversity
• 5. Ecosystem Conditions and Human Well-being
• 6. Vulnerable Peoples and Places

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Conditions and Trends I I

II: An Assessment of Ecosystem Services

• 7. Fresh Water
• 8. Food
• 9. Timber, Fuel, and Fiber
• 10. New Products and Industries from Biodiversity
• 11. Biodiversity Regulation of Ecosystem Services
• 12. Nutrient Cycling
• 13. Climate and Air Quality
• 14. Human Health: Ecosystem Regulation of Infectious

Diseases

• 15. Waste Processing and Detoxification
• 16. Regulation of Natural Hazards: Floods and Fires
• 17. Cultural and Amenity Services

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Conditions and Trends I I I

III: An Assessment of Systems from which Ecosystem Services Are Derived

• 18. Marine Fisheries Systems
• 19. Coastal Systems
• 20. Inland Water Systems
• 21. Forest and Woodland Systems
• 22. Dryland Systems
• 23. Island Systems
• 24. Mountain Systems
• 25. Polar Systems
• 26. Cultivated Systems
• 27. Urban Systems

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Conditions and Trends I V IV: Synthesis

• 28. Synthesis: Condition and Trends in Systems

and Services, Trade-offs for Human Well-being, and Implications for the Future

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Conditions and Trends I I: General Concepts and Analytical Approaches

• 1. MA Conceptual Framework
• 2. Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem

Condition and Human Well-being

• 3. Drivers of Ecosystem Change
• 4. Biodiversity
• 5. Ecosystem Conditions and Human Well-being
• 6. Vulnerable Peoples and Places

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Hum an W ell-being

• Tools

computer modelling, remote sensing, environmental economics...

• Data sources and methods

are unevenly distributed for different ecosystem services and regions...

• Ecosystem responses on different scales

including nonlinear responses...

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Seconds Minutes Hours Years Decades Centuries Molecules Cells Leaves Plants Ecosystems Biosphere global biogeochemistry evolution disturbance and succession storms, fire photosynthesis plant metabolism water- and nutrient budget

Interacting scales in biosphere dynamics

carbon allocation and growth competition for resources and ecological strategies geographical distribution of vegetation types plant seasonality

From Wolfgang Lucht, PIK

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Hum an W ell-being

• Tools

computer modelling, remote sensing, environmental economics...

• Data sources and methods

are unevenly distributed for different ecosystem services and regions...

• Ecosystem responses on different scales

including nonlinear responses...

• Ecosystem services are only one factor of

human well-being

analysis of linkage is therefore challenging...

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

The analytical approach for this report aims to quantify, to the degree possible, the most important trade-offs within different ecosystems and among ecosystem services as input to weigh societal objectives based on comprehensive analysis

• f the full suite of ecosystem services.

Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Hum an W ell-being

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Key questions

• What are the current spatial extent and condition of

ecosystems?

• What are the quality, quantity, and spatial

distributions of services provided by the systems?

• Who lives in the ecosystem and what ecosystem

services do they use?

• What are the trends in ecosystem condition and

their services in the recent (decades) and more distant past (centuries)?

• How does ecosystem condition, and in turn

ecosystem services, respond to the drivers of change for each system?

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

I nform ation sources

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Deforestation Xingu River, Amazonia

(MODIS Image, 19.10.2000)

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Lorra ine , Fra nce , August 2003

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Coral Reef Bleaching

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

The Lund-Potsdam-Jena DGVM (LPJ)

climate CO2 soil metabolism

soil water supply mean structure

• f an individual

yearly NPP allometric conditions

• ld

structure new structure crown area height fine roots leaves LAI sapwood heartwood 0-50 cm 50-150 cm stem diameter

AET Ci AET Ci

biochemistry functional relationships functional differentiation allometry competition

APAR = PAR · [1 − exp( −k · LAI )]

C budget H2O budget biogeography

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Adaptation of LPJ to simulate the carbon and water fluxes for crops: each CFT on a distinct stand with access to a separate soil water pool

Daily coupled growth and development simulation: Phenology, C allocation to leaves, roots, storage organs, estimation of the harvesting period

I m plem entation of agriculture in LPJ

Sowing date estimation: for 4 temperate CFTs = f(T), for 4 tropical CFTs = f(P) Adaptation of heat sum and vernalization requirement Oct Jul LAI, ~ 6 Total biomass, ~ 20 tDM/ha Grain harvested, ~ 6 tDM/ha No water stress for irrigated crops, computation of the water requirement and of the effective irrigation For grasses, several cuts (f(LAI)), or regular grazing Winter wheat Harvested biomass removed, residues sent to the litter pool or removed (fodder, biofuel, ...) Possibility of multiple cropping (e.g. rice) Grass during the intercrop season

• therwise

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Changing ecosystem s at a global m ean tem perature increase of 3 oC

Ecosyst ems t hat change are coloured.

I mprovement

I mprovement : More t rees and higher product ivit y

Change: needle- leaf ed f orests becomes broad- leaf ed f orest

Change: Dif f erent species composit ion and landscapes

Degradation

Degradat ion: Fewer t rees and lower product ivit y Ext inct ion: Large habit at decline and irreversible change

Extinction

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

The MA Global Scenario Analysis: Quantitative: The Global Modeling Exercise

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

I ndicators, hum an w ell-being

• Indicators for ecosystem condition
• Economic valuation
• Other valuation methods (health benefits,

poverty & equity, etc.)

• Intrinsic value assessment

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Assessing trade-offs

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Assessing trade-offs

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Ecosystem s and hum an w ell-being

• A Framework for Assessment
• Current State and Trends (Volume 1)
• Scenarios (Volume 2)
• Policy Responses (Volume 3)
• Multiscale Assessments (Volume 4)
• Our Human Planet: Summary for Decision-

makers

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Scenarios I: State of Knowledge Concerning Ecosystem Forecasts and Scenarios II: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios III: Implications of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Scenarios I I: State of Knowledge Concerning Ecosystem Forecasts and Scenarios

• 1. MA Conceptual Framework
• 2. Global Scenarios in Historical Perspective
• 3. Ecology in Global Scenarios
• 4. State of the Art in Simulating Future Changes in

Ecosystem Services

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Scenarios I I II: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios

• 5. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: Rationale and

Overview

• 6. Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios
• 7. Drivers of Change in Ecosystem Condition and

Services

• 8. Four Scenarios

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Scenarios I I I III: Implications of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios

• 9. Changes in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers

across the Scenarios

• 10. Biodiversity across Scenarios
• 11. Human Well-being across Scenarios
• 12. Interactions among Ecosystem Services
• 13. Lessons Learned for Scenario Analysis
• 14. Policy Synthesis for Key Stakeholders

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Changes in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios

• Indirect drivers of ecosystem services (population, economic

development, technological change, social/ cultural/ political drivers, energy use and production)

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Changes in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios

• Direct drivers of ecosystem services

(greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution emissions, risks of acidification and excess N loading from air pollution, climate change, sea level rise, change in land use or land cover, use of N fertilizer and N loads to rivers and coastal marine systems, disruption of landscape by mining and fossil fuel extraction)

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Changes in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios

• Provisioning ecosystem services (food, fish

for food consumption, uncertainty of agricultural estimates and ecological feedbacks to agriculture, fuel, freshwater resources, others)

• Regulating ecosystem services (climate

regulation / C storage, risk of soil degradation, water purification and waste treatment, coastal protection, others)

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Net Ecosystem Productivity ( g C m - 2 y-2)

Source Source Sinks Sinks

Land biosphere carbon balance

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Changes in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios

• Supporting ecosystem services
• Cultural ecosystem services

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Main chapter 9 m essages

• The demand for provisioning services, such as food,

fiber, and water, strongly increases in all four scenarios

• Trade-offs between ecosystem services continue and

perhaps intensify

• Overall, the largest decrease in the quality of

ecosystems and the provision of ecosystem services

• ccurs under the Order from Strength scenario
• The scenarios indicate certain ‘‘hot spot regions’’ of

particularly rapid changes in ecosystem services, including sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Northern Africa, and South Asia.

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Main chapter 9 m essages

• In all scenarios, rising income in the Middle

East and Northern African countries leads to greater meat demand, which could lead to a still higher level of dependence on food imports

• Vast changes are expected in world

freshwater resources and hence in the ecosystem services provided by freshwater systems

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Non-sustainable irrigation

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

I ncreasing N transport through rivers

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Main chapter 9 m essages

• Land use change is a major driver of

changes in the provision of ecosystem services up to 2050

• After 2050, climate change and its impacts

(such as sea level rise) have an increasing effect on the provision of ecosystem services

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Main chapter 9 m essages

• Food security remains out of reach for many people,

and child malnutrition cannot be eradicated by 2050, even though the supply of food increases under all four scenarios and diets in poorer countries become more diversified

• Demand for fish as food will expand, and the result

will be an increasing risk of the major long-lasting decline of regional marine fisheries

• The future contribution of terrestrial ecosystems to

the regulation of climate is uncertain

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

One w ay to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent

• Assessment or research?
• Conditions/ trends vs. scenarios
• Global vs. regional
• From a conceptual framework to factual

findings

• Key findings of the MA

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Ecosystem s and hum an w ell-being

• A Framework for Assessment
• Current State and Trends (Volume 1)
• Scenarios (Volume 2)
• Policy Responses (Volume 3)
• Multiscale Assessments (Volume 4)
• Our Human Planet: Summary for Decision-

makers

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

I ncreases in ecosystem services have brought substantial gains in hum an w ell being

• Since 1960, population doubled, economic

activity increased 6-fold, food production increased 2 ½ times, food price has declined, water use doubled, wood harvest for pulp tripled, hydropower doubled. … but gains were achieved at growing costs that could diminish the benefits that future generations obtain from ecosystems

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Cost of increased ecosystem services: ( i) Unprecedented change in ecosystem s

• Since 1945, more land

was converted to cropland than in 18th and 19th centuries combined

• Over last several

decades, 20% of the world’s coral reefs lost, 20% degraded, 35% of mangrove area lost

• Since 1960, amount of

water in reservoirs quadrupled

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Cost of increased ecosystem services: ( ii) Significant and largely irreversible changes to species diversity

• The distribution of

species more homogenous

• Humans increase

species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates

• 10–30% of mammal,

bird, and amphibian species currently threatened with extinction

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Cost of increased ecosystem services: ( iii) Degradation and unsustainable use of ecosystem services

• ∼ 60% (15 out of 24) of ecosystem services

are being degraded or used unsustainably

• Degradation of ecosystem services often

causes significant harm to human well-being

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Cost of increased ecosystem services: ( iv) Degradation of ecosystem services harm s people

• ½ urban population in Africa, Asia, Latin

America, and the Caribbean suffers from one

• r more diseases associated with inadequate

water and sanitation

• Decline of freshwater fisheries reduce

inexpensive source of protein in developing countries.

• Desertification destroys livelihoods of

millions of people, including a large portion

• f the poor in drylands

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Gains in ecosystem services: Food production

• By 2050:

Food production increases by 70–85%

• Child malnutrition

decreases under 3 of 4 scenarios

Child undernourishment in 2050 under MA Scenarios

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

I ntensified tradeoffs betw een ecosystem services: Agriculture land expands over grasslands and forests

• By 2050:

Expansion of agricultural land main cause of 10– 20% loss of natural grassland and forests

• Loss of services

associated with grassland and forests (wood products, medicine, climate regulation)

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Gains in ecosystem services: Freshw ater services

• By 2050:

Global water availability increases by 5 –7%

• Water

withdrawals increase 30% - 85%

Water Withdrawals in 2050 under MA Scenarios

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

I ncreased likelihood of nonlinear changes

• Changes being made in ecosystems are

increasing the likelihood of nonlinear changes in ecosystems (accelerating, abrupt, and potentially irreversible changes) → important consequences for human well- being.

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Exam ple of nonlinear change

• Fisheries collapse 1992:

Collapse of Atlantic cod fishery off coast of Newfoundland

• Invasive alien species:

Introduction of zebra mussels into North American aquatic ecosystems caused $100 million damage to power industry, other users

• Rapid regional climate

change: Desertification causes decline in regional precipitation (Africa, Latin America) → further changes in forest cover

Newfoundland Cod Fishery

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

Factors causing increase in likelihood of nonlinear changes

• Loss of species and genetic diversity

→ decreases resilience of ecosystems

• Growing pressures from drivers: over-

harvesting, climate change, invasive species, and nutrient loading → push ecosystems toward thresholds that they might otherwise not encounter

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

MA Global Scenario Analysis: Main findings

• Ecosystem services will increase but their

reliability is unclear

• Tradeoffs between services will intensify
• Likelihood of abrupt changes in world

ecosystems is increasing

3rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008

thank you for your attention…