Contribution to Millennium Contribution to Millennium Ecosystem - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Contribution to Millennium Contribution to Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ecosystem Assessment

Overview and simulation results Overview and simulation results

• Y. Hijioka , K. T

a ka ha shi a nd T . Ma sui

• Y. Hijioka , K. T

a ka ha shi a nd T . Ma sui

Na tiona l Institute for E nvironme nta l Studie s Na tiona l Institute for E nvironme nta l Studie s

AIM Inte rna tiona l Workshop, 12 AIM Inte rna tiona l Workshop, 12-

• 13 Ma rc h 2004

13 Ma rc h 2004

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

（ （http:// http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.htm www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.htm） ）

• The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) is an international work

program designed to meet the needs of decision makers and the public for scientific information concerning the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being and options for responding to those changes.

MA Board MA Board Assessment Panel

Working Group Chairs

Assessment Panel

Working Group Chairs

Sub-Global Assessment Working Group Sub-Global Assessment Working Group Condition Condition Scenarios Scenarios Response Response

Global Assessment Working Groups

Support Functions

Director, Administration, Logistics, Data Management

Support Functions

Director, Administration, Logistics, Data Management

Outreach & Engagement Outreach & Engagement Review Board Chair Review Board Chai Chapter Review Editors Chapter Review Editors

Global Global Modeling Modeling Group Group

• The MA focuses on:

Ecosystem services The consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well being The consequences of changes in ecosystems for

• ther life on earth

MA Time line of Activities MA Time line of Activities

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

1st Design Mtg UN Launch 2nd Design Mtg 1st WG Mtgs 2nd WG Mtgs Conceptual Framework Report Release 3rd WG Mtgs Joint WG Mtg

The first round of peer review for the MA started on January 12 and will end on March 19, 2004

Board Approval Assessment & Synthesis Release & Outreach Review WG Mtgs

Contribution to MA Contribution to MA

Contribution to Chap. 9 of Scenario Assessment Quantification of global long-term scenarios of

natural and social environment

Harmonization Harmonization

Driving forces, Climate sensitivity

AIM models utilized for MA AIM models utilized for MA

AIM/Water

Country-wise water-use (withdrawal and consumption), Country- wise renewable water resource, Spatial distribution of water-use and renewable water resources, Basin-wise water stress index

AIM/Agriculture

Potential crop productivity of Rice, Wheat and Maize

AIM/Ecosystem

SOx, NOx, Land use change, Biomass energy

Uncertainty Analysis Uncertainty Analysis

Scenarios of MA Scenarios of MA

MA Scenarios Related SRES

Global Orchestration (GO)

A1

Techno Garden (TG)

B1+550

Order from Strength (OS)

A2

Adapting Mosaic (AM)

A2 ➜ B2

Direct/ I ndirect Drivers and Direct/ I ndirect Drivers and Ecosystem Services of MA Scenarios Ecosystem Services of MA Scenarios

Indirect drivers: population, technology, income, .... Direct drivers: Energy, Emissions, Climate change,

Land use, Urbanization, ...

Ecosystem services: Food, Fuel, Freshwater, Water

supply, Air quality, ...

Inputs from AIM team: rice, wheat, maize

productivity change / freshwater availability, withdrawal, consumption / water stress index / urban population rate / NOx and SOx emissions / biofuel

Regional Classif ication of MA Regional Classif ication of MA

OECD-Regions

Rest of the world East Asia / South Asia / South East Asia East Asia / South Asia / South East Asia

Asia (without Middle East)

Central America / South America Latin America

Latin America

Eastern Africa / Southern Africa / Western Africa Subsaharian Africa

Subsaharian Africa

Northern Africa / Middle East Nor ther n Af r i ca / M i ddl e East

MENA

Belaruss _Ukraine_Moldava / Rest of FSU Former Soviet Union

FSU not including Eastern Europe

Canada / United States / Japan / Oceania / OECD Europe / Eastern Europe Canada / United States / Japan / Oceania / OECD Europe / Eastern Europe + Baltic Countries AI M /Ecosystem regi

• n

M A regi

• n

AI M/ Water model AI M/ Water model

Country-wise water-use (withdrawal and consumption) Country-wise renewable water resource Spatial distribution of water-use and water resource Water stress index in each river basin

Driving force

• Population
• GDP
• Urbanization
• Trend of water

supply ratio

GCM projection

• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Etc…

Current and future surface runoff Current climate

• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Etc…

Renewable water resource (RWR)

• Internal RWR
• External RWR

Technology change

• Water use efficiency
• Agricultural yield

Sector-wise withdrawal

• Agriculture
• Domestic
• Industrial

Spatial distribution of renewable water resource Sector-wise withdrawal under socio-economic change Spatial distribution

• f withdrawal

Spatial pattern of driving forces

• Population density
• Irrigation density

Water stress index GIS spatial data Input data Estimation River basin boundary

Sector Sector-

• wise water withdrawal

wise water withdrawal

Agriculture Domestic Industry Total OECD S.Afric Asia

OECD 100 200 300 400 500 2000 2050 2100 Year

• AGR. Water [km3/a]

Asia 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2000 2050 2100 Year

• AGR. Water [km3/a]

S-Africa 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2050 2100 Year

• AGR. Water [km3/a]

OECD 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2050 2100 Year

• DOM. Water [km3/a]

Asia 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000 2050 2100 Year

• DOM. Water [km3/a]

S-Africa

20 40 60 80 2000 2050 2100 Year

• DOM. Water [km3/a]

OECD 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 2000 2050 2100 Year

• IND. Water [km3/a]

Asia 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2000 2050 2100 Year

• IND. Water (km3/a)

S-Africa

10 20 30 40 50 2000 2050 2100 Year

• IND. Water (km3/a)

OECD 500 1000 1500 2000 2000 2050 2100 Year

• TOT. Water [km3/a]

Asia 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 2000 2050 2100 Year

• TOT. Water [km3/a]

S-Afirica

100 200 300 400 2000 2050 2100 Year

• TOT. Water [km3/a]

GO OS TG AM

EO FW TG LL 2000 2100

Water withdrawal per unit area in 2000 and 2100

• Developing countries: Water demand

density will increase especially under GO and OS.

• China & East Europe: Water demand

increase under GO because of quite high economic growth rate.

• Africa, Middle East & South Asia: Water

demand increase under OS because of quite high population growth rate.

0 100 101 102 103 (mm/year)

Water Withdrawal (total) Water Withdrawal (total)

GO OS TG AM

GO OS TG AM 2000 2100

0 20 40 60 80 100 ～ (%) 1 5 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 ～ (%) 1 5 10

• In general, the order of stress is OS > AM > GO > TG

Withdrawal: driven by socio-economic factors Water resource: driven by climate factors General trend of stress index change can be explained by demand side.

• ME and N. Africa

High drought risk ← water demand increase derived from population increase and economic development. Mitigated in TG ← high efficiency of water use.

• East Europe

High draught risk in GO ← high rate increase of industrial water withdrawal which cannot be compensated with the water use efficiency improvement.

Water Stress I ndex Water Stress I ndex (ratio between total withdrawal (ratio between total withdrawal and renewable water resource) and renewable water resource)

AI M/ Agriculture model AI M/ Agriculture model

Spatial estimation of potential crop productivity

0.5o x 0.5o spatial resolution Rice, Wheat, Maize, and other 9 crops

Temperature, Precipitation, PET, PAR, Soil Estimation of growing period Biomass production rate Net biomass production Soil constraints Soil data Potential productivity Threshold temperature Normal growing period Photosynthesis path Normal leaf area index Normal harvest index

Crop parameters GIS spatial data Input data Estimation

Simulation Results Simulation Results (Potential crop productivity) (Potential crop productivity)

Wheat Maize

• Generally, the degree of potential productivity change coincides with the speed of temperature

increase; OS > GO > AM >TG. Potential productivity will increase in high-latitude regions, and decrease in low-latitude regions. In mid-latitude regions, effect of climate change depends on the variety of crops.

• FSU: productivities of wheat and maize increase very rapidly by global warming under any scenarios.
• Latin America: As global warming progresses, the potential productivity will decrease.
• OECD: the potential productivity of wheat will decrease, while that of maize will increase because of

global warming. Generally, the most suitable temperature for maize growth is higher than that for wheat growth.

OECD

• 15
• 12
• 9
• 6
• 3

2000 2050 2100 Year Wheat [%] L-America

• 50
• 40
• 30
• 20
• 10

2000 2050 2100 Year

Wheat [%]

FSU

10 20 30 40 2000 2050 2100 Year Wheat [%]

OECD 2 4 6 8 10 2000 2050 2100 Year

Maize [%]

FSU 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2050 2100 Year Maize [%] L-America

• 10
• 8
• 6
• 4
• 2

2000 2050 2100 Year Maize [%]

GO OS TG AM

Structure of AI M/ Ecosystem Structure of AI M/ Ecosystem

production and service/goods sector

household government abroad market

import export produced goods and service final demand Recreational and cultural services

Environmental service/goods production sectors

intermediate, energy, capital, labor Environmental service/goods

capital labor Natural capital

Environmental service/goods

natural capital maintenance sectors

intermed iate, energy, capital, labor maintenance and augmentation service/goods maintenance costs

Feedback mechanism of ecosystem to socio-economy Drivers of ecosystem change

AIM/Agriculture

land productivity

Based on CGE model supported by other AIM models

Simulation Results ( Simulation Results (SOx SOx) )

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

MENA

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

SSA

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

OECD+EE OECD+EE

SOx Emission = Potential SOx generation – SOx Reduction Energy use Land use & LU change Investment of SOx red. equipment SOx reduction efficiency Economic growth Population

Scenarios Results from AIM/Ecosystem

Regional SOx emissions results (MtSO2)

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CIS

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

LA

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

ASIA

GO OS TG AM

Simulation Results ( Simulation Results (NOx NOx) )

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

M ENA

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

O EC D +EE

NOx Emission = Potential NOx generation – NOx Reduction Energy use Land use & LU change Investment of NOx red. equipment NOx reduction efficiency Economic growth Population

Scenarios Results from AIM/Ecosystem

Regional NOx emissions results (MtN)

GO OS TG AM

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

C I S

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

S S A

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

LA

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

A S I A

Simulation Results (Forest area) Simulation Results (Forest area)

In any scenario, forest area decrease at the beginning of 21st century. Pressure from other land use; agriculture, pasture & biomass plantation GO: Pressure from meat demand & plantation biomass OS & AM: Pressure from general food demand Pressure from globalization; GO & TG In 2nd half of 21st century, forest area is recovered. Effects of technologies: TG & GO Pressure from population: OS Forest protection policy in AM will recover the forest area at the same level of those in TG and GO.

2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 1000ha

Global

GO OS TG AM

AM+Policy

40 450 50 550 60 650 70 750 80 850 20 20 20 20 40 20 60 20 80 210

O ECD

60 650 70 750 80 850 90 950 20 20 20 20 40 20 60 20 80 210

CI S

50 10 150 20 250 30 20 20 20 20 40 20 60 20 80 210

NAM E 40 450 50 550 60 650 70 20 20 50 210 S S A 80 850 90 950 10 20 20 50 210 LA 20 250 30 350 40 450 50 550 20 20 50 210 AS I A

Messages f rom simulations Messages f rom simulations

1. Till the middle of 21st century, the pressure on the ecosystem would continue 2. Globalization (rapid economic growth) scenarios will damage ecosystem 3. Population growth would prevent ecosystem from recovering 4. Technology improvement will help recovery of ecosystem 5. Specific policies would be necessary to maintain ecosystem