One Belt One Road Three Dimensions Jan.Hoffmann@UNCTAD.org Hong - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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One Belt One Road Three Dimensions Jan.Hoffmann@UNCTAD.org Hong Kong, May 2016 One Belt One Road Liner shipping connectivity The maritime supply chain Facilitating trade and transit One Belt One Road

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One Belt – One Road – Three Dimensions –

Jan.Hoffmann@UNCTAD.org Hong Kong, May 2016

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One Belt – One Road

  • Liner shipping

connectivity

  • The maritime

supply chain

  • Facilitating

trade and transit

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One Belt – One Road

  • Liner shipping

connectivity

  • The maritime

supply chain

  • Facilitating

trade and transit

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SLIDE 4

One Belt – One Road

  • Liner shipping

connectivity

  • The maritime

supply chain

  • Facilitating

trade and transit

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SLIDE 5

One Belt – One Road

  • Liner shipping

connectivity

  • The maritime

supply chain

  • Facilitating

trade and transit

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SLIDE 6

One Belt – One Road

  • Liner shipping

connectivity

  • The maritime

supply chain

  • Facilitating

trade and transit

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Why “connectivity”?

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Introducing containerization leads to more trade

(Bernhofen et al, 2013)

18 May 2013

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Better connectivity leads to lower freight rates

y = 1814.9e-0.0671x R2 = 0.4348

500 1'000 1'500 2'000 2'500 3'000 3'500 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Number of Carriers providing direct services Freight rate

(Wilmsmeier and Hoffmann, 2008)

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(Wilmsmeier et al 2006)

Better connectivity leads to lower freight rates

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More trade

  • > More shipping supply
  • > More competition
  • > lower freights
  • > More trade
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Better services

  • > More trade
  • > More income to

finance infrastructure

  • > Better services
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Lower Transport Costs

  • > More trade
  • > Economies of scale
  • > Lower Transport Costs
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To capture a country’s connectivity…

UNCTAD developed the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index – LS LSCI CI – using the following 5 components:

  • Companies
  • Services
  • Largest ship
  • Number of ships
  • TEU

Source for components: Lloyds List Intelligence

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To capture a country’s connectivity…

UNCTAD developed the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index – LS LSCI CI –

http://stats.unctad.org/lsci

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(Arvis et al, 2013)

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http://stats.unctad.org/Maritime

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What can policy makers do to improve maritime connectivity? (e.g. Africa)

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Recommendations

  • 1. Facilitate transit
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Seaports and transit cargo

Transit trade is good for the transit countries!

  • It is good for my own

ports’ business

  • It is good for my own

importers and exporters, because it helps improve connectivity

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Facilitating transit trade and its transport

The good news: The increasing awareness that transit trade is good for the transit countries!

  • It is good for my own ports’ business.
  • It is good for my own country’s importers

and exporters, because it helps improve shipping connectivity.

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Facilitating transit trade and its transport

The good news: The increasing awareness that transit trade is good for the transit countries!

  • It is good for my own ports’ business.
  • It is good for my own country’s importers

and exporters, because it helps improve shipping connectivity.

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Facilitating transit trade and its transport

The good news: The increasing awareness that transit trade is good for the transit countries!

  • It is good for my own ports’ business.
  • It is good for my own country’s importers

and exporters, because it helps improve shipping connectivity.

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Inland connections

  • Infrastructure
  • Transit facilitation
  • Competition

e.g. trucking markets

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Recommendations

  • 1. Facilitate transit
  • 2. Facilitate competition
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Competition

  • Inter-port:

Seek to benefit from competition and economies of scale

  • Maritime:

Avoid unnecessary restrictions

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Recommendations

  • 1. Facilitate transit: More cargo for your port
  • 2. Facilitate competition
  • 3. Continue with port reforms
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Inter-port competition

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Recommendations

  • 1. Facilitate transit: More cargo for your port
  • 2. Facilitate competition
  • 3. Continue with port reforms
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Challenge

Ideally, I want both:

  • 1. Economies of scale, and
  • 2. Competition
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Source: UNCTAD Liner Shipping Connectivity Matrix, on the basis of data from Lloyds List Intelligence

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One Belt – One Road

  • Liner shipping

connectivity

  • The maritime

supply chain

  • Facilitating

trade and transit

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  • 8. Insurance services (P&I)
  • 10. Container terminal operators
  • 9. Seafarers
  • 6. Financing
  • 7. Classification

1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation

Globalized production of "maritime transport"

http://stats.unctad.org/Maritime

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  • 8. Insurance services (P&I)
  • 10. Container terminal operators
  • 9. Seafarers
  • 6. Financing
  • 7. Classification

1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation

Globalized production of "maritime transport"

Ch China, a, Korea rea an and Jap apan an 91.2% .2% of GT GT

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% of GT, Review of Maritime Transport 2016, forthcoming, based on Clarksons Research Studies

Ship building – total of 2015

China Japan Republic of Korea Philippines Rest of World Oil Tankers 32.0% 9.9% 53.3% 0.0% 4.7% Bulk Carriers 49.7% 40.2% 5.9% 3.2% 0.8% General Cargo 43.2% 12.4% 20.4% 0.0% 24.1% Containerships 30.9% 1.2% 57.8% 6.2% 4.0% Gas Carriers 2.8% 15.8% 81.1% 0.0% 0.3% Chemical Tankers 23.2% 30.0% 28.7% 0.0% 18.0% Offshore 25.4% 1.4% 43.9% 0.0% 29.4% Ferries and Passenger Ships 11.1% 3.0% 0.6% 0.0% 85.3% Other 3.2% 26.6% 57.0% 0.0% 13.1% Total 36.1% 20.9% 34.3% 2.9% 5.9%

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  • 8. Insurance services (P&I)
  • 10. Container terminal operators
  • 9. Seafarers
  • 6. Financing
  • 7. Classification

1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation

Globalized production of "maritime transport"

Greece eece, , Jap apan: an: 29.1% .1%

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  • 8. Insurance services (P&I)
  • 10. Container terminal operators
  • 9. Seafarers
  • 6. Financing
  • 7. Classification

1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation

Globalized production of "maritime transport"

Pa Panam ama, a, Liberia beria, , Mar arshall shall Isla lands: nds: 41% 41%

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  • 8. Insurance services (P&I)
  • 10. Container terminal operators
  • 9. Seafarers
  • 6. Financing
  • 7. Classification

1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation (container ships)

Globalized production of "maritime transport"

Den enmark ark an and Sw Switze zerland rland 29% 29%

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  • 8. Insurance services (P&I)
  • 10. Container terminal operators
  • 9. Seafarers
  • 6. Financing
  • 7. Classification

1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation

Globalized production of "maritime transport"

India dia, , Ban angladesh, ladesh, Ch China, a, Pa Pakista stan 90.6% .6%

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  • 8. Insurance services (P&I)
  • 10. Container terminal operators
  • 9. Seafarers
  • 6. Financing
  • 7. Classification

1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation

Globalized production of "maritime transport"

Fi Finan ancial cial an and other er ser ervi vice ces: s: UK, , Sc Scan andina dinavia via

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  • 8. Insurance services (P&I)
  • 10. Container terminal operators
  • 9. Seafarers
  • 6. Financing
  • 7. Classification

1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation

Globalized production of "maritime transport"

Ph Philippi ippines nes, , Indon donesia, esia, …

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  • 8. Insurance services (P&I)
  • 10. Container terminal operators
  • 9. Seafarers
  • 6. Financing
  • 7. Classification

1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation

Globalized production of "maritime transport"

Hong ng Kong ng, , Net ether herland lands, s, Si Singapo apore, e, UAE AE: ~ 30%

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  • 8. Insurance services (P&I)
  • 10. Container terminal operators
  • 9. Seafarers
  • 6. Financing
  • 7. Classification

1. Building 5. Scrapping 2. Owning 3. Registration 4. Operation

 Globalized production of "maritime transport"

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Countries specialize in different maritime businesses

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China

  • Maritime country profile
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Singapore

  • Maritime country profile
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Sri Lanka

  • Maritime country profile
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India

  • Maritime country profile
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Russia

  • Maritime country profile
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France

  • Maritime country profile
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Germany

  • Maritime country profile
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  • More maritime country profiles

http://stats.unctad.org/Maritime

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Hong Kong (SAR)

  • Maritime country profile
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In what maritime sector should I specialize?

Synergies and trade-offs

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Trade-offs

  • Interests of

–ports versus –nationally flagged fleet?

Example: Should a country liberalize cabotage (coastal shipping)?

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Trade-offs

  • Interests of

–shippers versus –carriers?

Example: Anti-trust immunity of liner shipping companies?

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Trade-offs

  • Interests of

–trucking versus –shipping?

Example: Tax regimes for different modes of transport?

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Synergies

  • Clusters of

–officers and –classification societies?

Example: Many on shore maritime specialists have previously worked on board

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Synergies

  • Clusters of

–ship building and –ship recycling?

Example: Steel from scrapping is used in construction

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Synergies

  • Clusters of

–ship owning and –services ?

Example: Maritime service clusters in Hamburg, London, Hong Kong, or Singapore

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Food for thought for OBOR

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1) Maritime development

  • Long term:

There is a trend that maritime sectors are increasingly located in “developing countries”

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2) Specialization

  • We can identify which countries have similar

“maritime profiles”

  • Clusters: We can identify which sectors are

likely to be located in the same country

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Clustering of maritime sectors

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One Belt – One Road

Liner shipping connectivity The maritime supply chain

  • Facilitating

trade and transit

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One Belt – One Road

  • Liner shipping

connectivity

  • The maritime

supply chain

  • Facilitating

trade and transit

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Trade and transit facilitation

A balance? Or trade-off?

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TF measures help!

  • Improve revenue collection
  • Improve controls
  • Improve security
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Risk Management

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Advance information; internet publication; post clearance audit; electronic submission;

  • etc. etc.
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The WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA)

  • A key tool to advance with

One Belt, One Road

  • Implementation and ratification requires

technical assistance

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Trade Facilitation and Development: The Chicken and the Egg

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Source: UNCTAD Trade Facilitation & Development Forthcoming

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Source: UNCTAD Trade Facilitation & Development Forthcoming

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Source: UNCTAD Trade Facilitation & Development Forthcoming

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Source: UNCTAD Trade Facilitation & Development Forthcoming

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Source: UNCTAD Trade Facilitation & Development Forthcoming

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TF measures and Doing Business

Source: UNCTAD Trade Facilitation & Development Forthcoming

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Clusters of TF measures

Source: UNCTAD Trade Facilitation & Development Forthcoming

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OBOR: Many challenges, and solutions, require bilateral or regional cooperation

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Possible criteria for a regional programme

  • 1. The measure requires collaboration
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Possible criteria for a regional programme

  • 1. The measure requires collaboration
  • 2. Countries have the same categories
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Possible criteria for a regional programme

  • 1. The measure requires collaboration
  • 2. Countries have the same category
  • 3. Countries have

the same priorities

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Possible criteria for a regional programme

  • 1. The measure requires collaboration
  • 2. Countries have the same category
  • 3. Countries have the same priorities
  • 4. Members of same RTA
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Possible criteria for a regional programme

  • 1. The measure requires collaboration
  • 2. Countries have the same category
  • 3. Countries have the same priorities
  • 4. Members of same RTA
  • 5. Potential of South-South cooperation
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Possible criteria for a regional programme

  • 1. The measure requires collaboration
  • 2. Countries have the same category
  • 3. Countries have the same priorities
  • 4. Members of same RTA
  • 5. Potential of South-South cooperation
  • 6. Benefits from common standards
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Possible criteria for a regional programme

  • 1. The measure requires collaboration
  • 2. Countries have the same category
  • 3. Countries have the same priorities
  • 4. Members of same RTA
  • 5. Potential of South-South cooperation
  • 6. Benefits from common standards
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One Belt – One Road

  • Liner shipping

connectivity

  • The maritime

supply chain

  • Facilitating

trade and transit

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One Belt – One Road – Three Dimensions – Thank you

Jan.Hoffmann@UNCTAD.org Hong Kong, May 2016