Ocean Salmon Fishery Management & June 2020 Southern Resident - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ocean Salmon Fishery Management & Southern Resident Orca Conservation

Ben Enticknap June 15, 2020

Photo: Karoline Cullen/Shutterstock.com

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Agenda Item E.2.b Supplemental Public Presentation 1 (Oceana) June 2020

Fecundity rates have declined: 69% of detectable pregnancies unsuccessful, linked to nutritional stress (Wasser et al. 2017)

At current threat levels, including current average Chinook abundance, there is a 59% probability that the population will drop below 30 animals within 100 years, becoming functionally extinct (Lacy 2020, update to Lacy et al. 2017 PVA analysis).

Adapted from Center For Whale Research

Southern Resident Extinction Risk is Increasing

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60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 # Southern Resident Killer Whales

Southern Resident Killer Whales (J,K,L pods)

ESA-listing

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Southern Resident Orcas need an Ocean Abundant with Chinook Salmon

Chinook 80% Coho 15%

• ther

salmonids 4%

• ther fish

1%

DIET COMPOSITION

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Quantifying the effects of prey abundance on killer whale reproduction

• Ward, Holmes and Balcomb (2009)

“killer whale fecundity is highly correlated with the abundance of Chinook salmon. For example, the probability of a female calving differed by 50% between years of low salmon abundance and high salmon abundance.”

Photo: NOAA 4

Prey Quality is Essential

#Average Chinook / day # Puget Sound Chinook/ day # Sacramento Chinook/ day 1 adult Southern Resident (♂) 12 to 20 17 to 30 10 to 18

Over 34 years, between 1975 and 2009, Chinook shrunk on average 20% in weight and 7% in length.

Pike Place Market, Seattle

“Any activities that affect the abundance of Chinook salmon available to SRKW have the potential to impact the survival and population growth of the whales… and… Fisheries can reduce the prey available to the whales and, in some cases, can interfere directly with their feeding.”

• PFMC Agenda Item E.5.b Supplemental

NMFS Report 1 March 2020, at 18.

Monika Wieland Shields /Shutterstock.com

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“Most of the Chinook prey samples

• btained while the whales were in
• uter coastal waters were determined

to have originated from the Columbia River basin.” – NMFS 2019 SRKW Critical Habitat Proposed Rule

Proposed & Existing Southern Resident Killer Whale Critical Habitat

Critical Ocean Habitat

Identify and implement a critical Chinook abundance threshold – similar in concept to the ‘cutoff’ factor for forage fish in the CPS FMP.

• Develop a range of options for public review: the average of the lowest

seven years of estimated ocean Chinook abundance North of Falcon (Threshold Option 1 ~ 970,000 Chinook), the maximum of the lowest seven years of estimated Chinook abundance North of Falcon (Threshold Option 2 ~ 1,000,000), and the maximum of the lowest ten years of estimated Chinook abundance North of Falcon (Threshold Option 3 ~ 1,100,000).

A precautionary approach is warranted

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500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Chinook Abundance

Chinook Abundance Threshold Option 1 (970,000) Threshold Option 2 (1,000,000) Threshold Option 3 (1,100,000)

North of Falcon Chinook Abundance (TS1) & Recommended Abundance Threshold Options

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Recommendations Continued…

• Consider a range of management measures

for when Chinook abundance is below the threshold:

• Reduced and limited Chinook catch limits, up to

and including no ocean Chinook catch.

• Time and area closures to avoid competition with

Southern Residents.

• Amend salmon FMP with an objective of

managing and regulating salmon fisheries in a manner that accounts for the foraging needs

• f Southern Resident orca.

Photo: USFWS Daniel Bianchetta / Monterey Bay Whale Watch

Monika Wieland Shields /Shutterstock.com

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