Columbia River Flows, Salmon, and Columbia River Flows, Salmon, and O Ocean Conditions Ocean Conditions O C C diti diti Kurt L. Fresh Kurt L. Fresh NOAA Fisheries, NWFSC NOAA Fisheries, NWFSC NOAA Fisheries, NWFSC NOAA Fisheries, NWFSC Funding Support Primarily From BPA and NOAA
Why Study Salmon in the Ocean? H How is that Related to Managing Rivers? i h R l d M i Ri ? • Understand the role of ocean conditions on U de sta d t e o e o ocea co d t o s o growth and survival of Columbia River salmon. – Provide the context for recovery actions in the Basin. – Determine the relative roles of hydrosystem, freshwater and marine factors on salmon survival in the Columbia River Basin the Columbia River Basin. • Support the FCRPS, BIOP. • Provide information that can be used in adaptive Provide information that can be used in adaptive management of fish and the hydrosystem in the Columbia River Basin.
Snake River Salmon SAR (Smolt to Adult) (survival from LGR to LGR) versus: Ocean survival vs a s mmar metri a summary metric In ‐ river survival Ocean survival of ocean conditions (LGR to BON) (BON to BON) Hatchery Spring Chinook o BON) R) Survival (SAR vival (BON to Wild Steelhead Total S Ocean Surv Hatchery Steelhead In ‐ river Survival Ocean Survival Ocean Indicator * * This metric is a combination of food Survival data include 2000 ‐ 2009 and come from: resources and other physical and http://www.cbr.washington.edu/trends/index.php biological conditions in the ocean
Why Study Salmon in the Ocean? 1. Absolute survival in all life stages is important for conservation and recovery • In ‐ river survival may not contribute much to forecasts, but 50% in ‐ river survival still reduces returns by 50% • Upstream of Lower Granite Dam (LGR): adult survival and egg ‐ fry ‐ smolt survival are highly variable and have a f l l h hl bl d h strong influence on population dynamics 2. Variability in survival is important for forecasting • • Most of the variability in SAR (survival from LGR to LGR) Most of the variability in SAR (survival from LGR to LGR) comes from variability in the ocean • In ‐ river variability is more important for steelhead than for Chinook salmon for Chinook salmon
HOW TO BE A SALMON HOW TO BE A SALMON Variations on a Theme • Differences between species (7). • Differences within species between groups of Differences within species between groups of individuals ‐ populations (dozens) – A more or less discrete breeding group of salmon. • Spawning location Spawning location • Body size and age at maturity. • Timing of life history events • Differences between individuals within a population – Life history type.
The Ocean Program The Ocean Program • BPA Funding BPA Funding – NOAA + OSU, OHSU, UW: 1998 to present – Canada DFO, 1999 to 2012 (phasing out) Canada DFO 1999 to 2012 (phasing out) – Kintama, 2005 ‐ 2011 • Other Funding Oth F di – NOAA • In kind (salary, equipment) • Other sampling platforms.
Sampling methods • Juvenile salmon with surface trawl: sometimes with a small mesh liner • Plankton nets • Other: buckets, CTDs • Acoustics • Bird and marine mammal observations
Sampling Design 48° N 48 N La Push • Newport Line biweekly Washington Queets River oceanographic and g p plankton sampling since 47° N Grays Harbor 1996 (17th year) Willapa Bay Will B • Juvenile salmon sampling Columbia River 46° N in May June and in May, June and Oregon September since 1998 Cape Falcon Cape Meares (15th year) (15th year) 45° N Cascade Head Newport Newport ^ _ Cape Perpetua 126° W 125° W 124° W 123° W
What We Have Learned What We Have Learned • Learned a lot about salmon in the ocean Learned a lot about salmon in the ocean. Some highlights. • We can use our science to help identify ways • We can use our science to help identify ways that we can affect salmon performance (growth/survival) during early ocean life (growth/survival) during early ocean life (adaptive management) • Its not just salmon; there are uses of other I j l h f h data from the ocean project.
Conceptual Model H2 Salmon H1 H3: Plume Structure H3: Plume Structure H4: Hydropower System H5: Freshwater vs. Ocean Survival H5: Freshwater vs. Ocean Survival
What Have We Learned: Some Highlights The First Several Months at Sea Are Critical to Many Columbia y River Salmon Stocks An Example: Early Ocean Growth is Early Ocean Growth is Critical to Survival of Yearling Stocks of Chinook Salmon
Variability Between and Within Stocks i H in How they Respond to Ocean h R d O Conditions
Spatial distribution is stock ‐ specific stock specific
Snake River Sub ‐ yearling Fall Chinook Snake River Yearling Spring Chinook
We Can Use Our Science We Can Use Our Science • We can use our understanding of how the We can use our understanding of how the ocean influences juvenile salmon to: – Affect the environment or habitats the fish – Affect the environment or habitats the fish occupy. – Affect the fish Affect the fish – Predict or forecast how fish will respond to ocean conditions. conditions.
Fl Flow ‐ Expanding Our View E di O Vi
Flow ‐ The Plume Freshwater from the Columbia River mixing with the ocean F h t f th C l bi Ri i i ith th • River water discharged di h d into coastal WA ocean every outgoing tide • Freshwater pool pool propagates offshore OR Synthetic aperture radar image, July 2003 Courtesy D. Jay, Portland State University
Three marine regions of the plume Far field plume Near field plume ‐ hours days y Recirculating plume Hours to days Photo off North Head Lighthouse, looking west
Plume is not Simply Local and Focused Near the Mouth of the River Near the Mouth of the River
Columbia River Plume The Plume is Dynamic in Space and Time The Plume is Dynamic in Space and Time 8 ‐ day Composites : May 1999 day Composites : May 1999 y y p p y y
Plume Affects Growth and Adult Returns Snake River spring Chinook ‐ 2 yr) eturns ( ‐ Mid ‐ upper Columbia River spring Chinook pp p g Adult re from Tomaro et al. 2012 and J. Miller et al. (In prep.)
ALTERNATIVE PREY NOT ABUNDANT Predators Plume can Affect Avian Predation Juvenile Salmon Forage Fish NOT Abundant Low Salinity Percent Eaten by Percent Eaten by Large Plume Predators Predators ALTERNATIVE PREY IS ABUNDANT Predators Forage Fish ARE Abundant Juvenile Salmon High Salinity Percent Eaten by Predators Predators S Small Plume ll Pl Percent Eaten
We Affect Attributes of the Plume We Affect Attributes of the Plume • About 44% of variability in plume volume is explained by Bonneville river discharge. Coastal winds explains ~30% of the plume variability b l • We can predict features of the plume in advance. – Weeks to years. – Due to climate change, restoration. From Antonio Baptitsta, OHSU
Total fish abundance River flow Caspian tern predation p p Flow is Important in l i i on salmon The Estuary www.birdresearchnw.org
We Can Affect the Fish • We can manipulate We can manipulate – Time, size, abundance of hatchery fish being released released. – How hatchery and wild fish move downstream and how fast they get to the ocean: flow/spill, and how fast they get to the ocean: flow/spill, barging
Interannual variation in timing of marine entry Snake River Mid ‐ upper Columbia River
Forecasting Forecasting • Adaptive management When should we be Adaptive management. When should we be concerned about low returns and what can we do about it do about it. • Harvest. • Hatchery management. H h • Life cycle modeling and early warning indicators. • Understanding ocean ecology of salmon. g gy
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