Nuclear power program in Poland Dr Jzef Sobolewski Director - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nuclear power program in Poland

Dr Józef Sobolewski

Director Department of Nuclear Energy Ministry of Energy, Poland

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Polish Power System

The total maximum capacity in Polish Power System (PPS) reached 43 421 MW (as of 31 December 2017).

• Coal-fired power plants – 20 247 MW
• Lignite-fired power plants – 9 352 MW
• Gas power plants – 2 341 MW
• Industrial power plants – 2 813 MW
• Hydroelectric power plants – 2 328 MW
• Renewable resources – 6 341 MW
• Nuclear: 0 MW

Energy consumption: 168 139 GWh/year (2017) 4,37 MWh/per citizen/year; one of the lowest in Europe. According to all estimations energy consumption in Poland will grow in coming decades. Transmission grid - 14 195 km:

• 1 line of 750 kV (114 km),
• 93 lines of 400 kV (6 326 km),
• 164 lines of 220 kV (7 755 km),

Under-sea 450 kV DC connection between Poland and Sweden(245 km)

Bełchatów 12x370 MW 1x858 MW

Kozienice

2x500 MW 8x225 MW 1x1075 MW

Stalowa Wola 2x125 MW Dolna Odra 6x220 MW Rybnik 8x225 MW Adamów 5x120 MW Łaziska 2x125 MW 4x225 MW Ostrołęka 3x220 MW Jaworzno 6x225 MW Siersza 2x150 MW 2x120 MW Turów 3x260 MW 3x235 MW Porąbka-Żar 4x135 MW Żarnowiec 4x180 MW Żydowo 3x60 MW Opole 4x380 MW Pątnów 1x460 MW 6x200 MW Łagisza 1x460 MW 2x120 MW Dychów 3x30 MW Solina 2x70 MW 2x30 MW Połaniec 7x225 MW

2050

coal and lignite nuclear power gas fuels

• ther

renewables

Goal 50%

?

Current and future energy generation structure

Goal 60%

6% 6% 8% 20%

2031

Assumptions: ü slight decline of consumption of coal by 2031 and without changes after 2031 ü 1,5 GW by NPP in 2031, 6 -9 GW by 2050 ü Average increase of production by 0,86% y/y (accelerated increase by 2030, slowdown by 2050)

78% 5% 3% 14%

2016

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 4.7 6.2 7.3 9.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.3 3.0 3.7 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 nonDispatchable Moc dysp. wiatru (el. istniejące) Dispatchable Reserve gap Demand gap Capacity demand Capacity demand plus reserve 5,8 GW * 0,9

[GW]

Dispatchable power plants Last coal power plants under construction

Wind power plants dispatchable capacity

Dispachable capacity of wind

Dispatchable capacity of small power plants and renewables without wind

Peak load and current and planed capacity

SOURCE: ME, PSE

Main challenges

11.47.4 9.5 17 25 32 40 44 50 10 20 30 40 50 60

EUR/tCO2

Source: Polish Energy Market Agency 2017. Projection based on: 1) OECD/IEA, World Energy Outlook 2016, Paris, November 2016. 2) European Commission: EU Reference Scenario 2016. Energy, transport and GHG emissions trends to 2050, July 2016. 3) “Thomson Reuters Carbon Market Survey 2016”, Nordeng, A. et al., May, 2016. 4) KfW/ZEW CO2 Barometer 2016– Carbon Edition.

Aging structure of the existing power plants in Poland (2016) Lignite resources already mined out (2040) Increasing costs of coal power generation (CO2, air pollutants)

Source: European Environment Agency

Electricity generation – CO2 emission intensity

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

1 25 49 73 97 121 145 169 193 217 241 265 289 313 337 361 385 409 433 457 481 505 529 553 577 601 625 649 673 697 721

Polish Power System - July 2018 (hourly in MW)

Wind Power Consumption Instaled Wind Power

14%

Polish Nuclear Power Program

• PNPP was approved on January 28th 2014 by the Council of Ministers.

Its key goals resulting from the Energy Policy of Poland until 2030 are following: ü assuring long-term security of electricity supply ü maintaining electricity prices at levels acceptable by the national economy and the society ü reducing emissions of CO2 and other air pollutants

• 2 NPP planned with total installed capacity: 6000 MWe
• Current status:

The government is working on update of the document and new business model for the first NPPs.

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892 862 836 821 804 787 782 774 775 766 758 745 713 702 634 634 576 574 520 510 505 495 486 481

400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 [kg CO2/MWh]

Assumptions:

ü 1,5 GW since 2031, further 2 units after 2 and 4 years ü 7,5-10 GW installed capacity in wind turbines ü Included CCGT, new coal power units, gas units, oil units and

• ther renewables.

Źródło: PSE / ME

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Average CO2 emission per 1 MWh

Thank you for attention