NORTH CAROLINA 2018 P OST - ELECTION B RIEFING www.ncfef.org NCFEF - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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NORTH CAROLINA 2018 P OST - ELECTION B RIEFING www.ncfef.org NCFEF - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 11, 2023 492 likes •1.01k views

NORTH CAROLINA 2018 P OST - ELECTION B RIEFING www.ncfef.org NCFEF @ncfef & @jonathankappler Bottom Line Up Top National Republicans appears to expand majority in US Senate by 2 seats Democrats have retaken the majority in the

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SLIDE 1

NORTH CAROLINA

2018 POST-ELECTION BRIEFING

www.ncfef.org NCFEF @ncfef & @jonathankappler

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SLIDE 2

Bottom Line Up Top

National 

Republicans appears to expand majority in US Senate by 2 seats

Democrats have retaken the majority in the US House (approximate next pick up of +35ish)

None of NC’s 3 competitive US House races flip

 Rep. Holding (R-2nd) & Rep Budd (R-13th) win re-election, Harris (R)

bests McCready (D) by less than 1,000 votes in NC09

NC’s Appellate Courts 

Earls (D) wins NC Supreme Court race

Democrats win all 3 NC Court of Appeals races

Constitutional Amendments 

Four of the six proposed constitutional amendments pass

NC House 

Democrats break the GOP Supermajority with apparent net pick up

  • f 10 seats*

NC Senate 

Republicans narrowly lose Supermajority, Democrats pick up six seats

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SLIDE 3

The 2018 Election Cycle: What was it?

Wave election: An election that (1) produces the potential for a political party to significantly affect the political status quo as (2) the result of a substantial increase in seats for that party.

  • Jacob Smith, writing for the UVA Center for Politics
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SLIDE 4

Midterm Election Comparisons

Blue Moon Midterm Elections

Year NCGA Gains by Party Opposite the White House 1970 D+10 1982 D+10 1994 R+39 2006 D+7 2018 D+16 All Midterms Average +11 (8 House, 3 Senate)

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SLIDE 5

National Results

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SLIDE 6

Outside Spending: $3.4 million+ $1.9M v $1.5M Outside Spending: $4.6 million $2.8M v $1.8M Outside Spending: $7.5 million $4.5M v $3M Total amount raised: Total Outside Spending: $15.5 million

Competitive US House Races

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SLIDE 7

Competitive US House Races

NC-02: Holding (R): 51.3% Coleman (D): 45.8% Matemu (L): 2.9% NC-09: Harris (R): 49.4% McCready (D): 48.8% Scott (L): 1.8% NC-13: Budd (R): 51.6% Manning (D): 45.5% Bailey (L): 1.9% Corriher (G): 1.0% Difference: 1,860 votes

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SLIDE 8

Appellate Court Races

NC Supreme Court NC Court of Appeals – Calabria Seat (Open) NC Court of Appeals – Elmore Seat (Open) NC Court of Appeals – Arrowood Seat Jackson (R): 34.1% Earls (D): 49.5% Anglin (R): 16.4% Griffin (R): 35.8% Hampson (D): 48.7% Ray (R): 15.5% Kitchen (R): 46.9% Collins (D): 48.5% Monaco (L): 4.6% Heath (R): 49.3% Arrowood (D): 50.7% NC Supreme Court Democrats expand majority from 4-3 to 5-2 NC Court of Appeals Democrats narrow Republican majority from 10-5 to 8-7

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SLIDE 9

Constitutional Amendments

  • Marsy’s Law
  • For:

62.1%

  • Against: 37.9%
  • Hunting & Fishing Rights
  • For:

57.1%

  • Against: 42.9%
  • Voter ID
  • For:

55.5%

  • Against: 44.5%
  • Income Tax Cap
  • For:

57.4%

  • Against: 42.6%
  • Boards & Commissions
  • For:

38.4%

  • Against: 61.6%
  • Filling Judicial Vacancies
  • For:

33.1%

  • Against: 66.9%
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SLIDE 10

The 2018 Election Cycle

2016 Election

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SLIDE 11

NCGA Races General Takeaways & Factors

 Low Presidential approval rating overall – & importantly with

key demographic groups

 Accelerating shift in the political orientation of some groups

 (Rapidly) growing communities  Money - early outside money, targeted candidate & party

money

 Dominate local factors that worked in their favor

 Particularly critical in rural districts Dems won

 Role of Redistricting  Democratic strategy

 The things they can control (money & candidate recruitment)

 In some ways NC emblematic of national election results – in

  • ther ways, not so much

 Urban – rural divide  Women candidates

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SLIDE 12

NC House – Key Results & Takeaways

 Republicans maintain majority, lose supermajority

 Republicans: 66  Democrats: 54  2010: GOP +16  2018: Dem+10*

 Urban/Suburban - Rural Divide

 Wake

 2017: 8 Democrats, 3 Republicans  2019: 11 Democrats, 0 Republicans

 Mecklenburg

 2017: 8 Democrats, 4 Republicans  2019: 12 Democrats, 0 Republican*

 41% of NC House Democratic caucus from Wake or

Mecklenburg Counties

 Rematches highlight how 2018 shifted from 2016

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SLIDE 13

Pick-ups – NC House

 Democratic Pick-ups

 35: Rep. Malone (R) to Terrence Everitt (D)  36: Rep. Dollar (R) to Julie von Haefen (D)  93: Rep. Jordan (R) to Ray Russell (D)  98: Rep. Bradford (R) to Christy Clark (D)  103: Rep. Brawley (R) to Rachel Hunt (D)*  104: Rep. Dulin (R) to Brandon Lofton (D)  105: Rep. Stone (R) to Wesley Harris (D)  119: Rep. Clampitt (R) to Joe Sam Queen (D)  Open Seats

 8: no incumbent  25: Rep. Collins (R) to John Gailliard (D)  37: Rep. Hunt-Williams/John Adcock (R) to Sydney Batch (D)  57: Rep. Blust (R) to Ashton Clemmons (D)

 Republican Pick-ups

 7: Rep. Richardson (D) to Lisa Stone Barnes (R)  12: Rep. G. Graham (D) to Chris Humphrey (R)

Net +10*

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SLIDE 14

NC House

Republicans: 65 Democrats: 55

Blue Star = New Democratic Representative Red Star = New Republican Representative

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SLIDE 15

Strong Democratic (37) Lean Democratic (5) Lean Republican (8) Strong Republican (56)

29

Black

8

OPEN 24 Farmer-Butterfield

93

Jordan

74

Conrad

84

  • R. Turner

Durham

  • Wilson

Ashe Forsyth Iredell

31

OPEN (Michaux)

60

Brockman 25 OPEN (Collins)

9

Murphy

82

Johnson

69

Arp Durham Guilford

  • Pitt

Cabarrus Union

56

Insko

23

Willingham 41 Adcock

104

Dulin

62

Faircloth

120

Corbin Orange Edgecombe Wake Mecklenburg Guilford Macon

102

Carney

47

  • C. Graham

44 Billy Richardson

105

Stone

76

Warren

68

Horn Mecklenburg Robeson Cumberland Mecklenburg Rowan Union

38

Holley

100

Autry 21 OPEN (L. Bell)

2

Yarborough

55

Brody

90

Stevens Wake Mecklenburg Sampson Person Union Surry

33

Gill

39

Jackson

Competitive (14)

7

Bobbie Richardson

65

OPEN (Jones)

13

McElraft Wake Wake

115

Ager Franklin Rockingham Carteret

72

Hanes

57

OPEN (Blust) Buncombe

16

OPEN (Muller)

6

OPEN (Boswell)

81

Potts Forsyth

  • 1

OPEN (Steinburg)

  • Dare

Davidson

99

OPEN (R. Moore)

92

Beasley

  • 59

Hardister

14

Cleveland

95

Fraley Mecklenburg Mecklenburg

12

  • G. Graham

Guilford Onslow Iredell

107

Alexander

11

OPEN (Hall) Lenoir

Strong Republican (56)

109

Bumgardner

73

Zachary Mecklenburg Wake

66

Goodman Gaston Yadkin

114

Fisher

18

Butler Richmond

75

Lambeth

26

White

87

Destin Hall Buncombe New Hanover

22

Brisson Forsyth Johnston Caldwell

58

Quick

34

Martin Bladen

45

Szoka

86

Blackwell

89

Setzer Guilford Wake

116

  • B. Turner

Cumberland Burke Catawba

42

Lucas

49

Ball Buncombe

20

Grange

113

Henson

97

Saine Cumberland Wake

119

Clampitt New Hanover Transylvania Lincoln

101

OPEN (Earle)

5

Hunter Swain

103

Brawley

110

Hastings

91

  • K. Hall

Mecklenburg Hertford

46

  • B. Jones

Mecklenburg Gaston Stokes

43

Floyd

54

Reives Columbus

83

Pittman

108

Torbett

10

  • J. Bell

Cumberland Chatham

40

John Cabarrus Gaston Wayne

106

Cunningham

48

Pierce Wake

118

Presnell

111

  • T. Moore

94

Elmore Mecklenburg Scotland

35

Malone Yancey Cleveland Wilkes

88

Belk

50

Meyer Wake

64

Riddell

117

McGrady

85

Dobson Mecklenburg Orange

37

OPEN (Williams) Alamance Henderson McDowell

61

Harrison

  • 19

Davis

17

Iler

77

Howard Guilford

63

Ross New Hanover Brunswick Davie

71

Terry Alamance

4

Dixon

28

Strickland

67

OPEN (Burr) Forsyth

36

Dollar Duplin Johnston Stanly

27

Wray Wake

53

Lewis

52

Boles

80

Open (Watford) Northampton

51

Sauls Harnett Moore Davidson

32

Garrison Lee

79

OPEN

96

Adams

70

Hurley Vance

  • Catawba

Randolph

30

Morey

98

Bradford

15

Shepard

78

McNeill Durham Mecklenburg Onslow Randolph

3

Speciale

112

Rogers Craven Rutherford

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SLIDE 16

Strong Democratic (37) Lean Democratic (5) Lean Republican (8) Strong Republican (56)

29

Black

8

  • K. Smith

24 Farmer-Butterfield

93

Russell

74

Conrad

84

  • R. Turner

Durham Pitt Wilson Ashe Forsyth Iredell

31

Hawkins

60

Brockman 25 Gailliard

9

Murphy

82

Johnson

69

Arp Durham Guilford Nash Pitt Cabarrus Union

56

Insko

23

Willingham 41 Adcock

104

Dulin

62

Faircloth

120

Corbin Orange Edgecombe Wake Mecklenburg Guilford Macon

102

Carney

47

  • C. Graham

44 Billy Richardson

105

Stone

76

Warren

68

Horn Mecklenburg Robeson Cumberland Mecklenburg Rowan Union

38

Holley

100

Autry 21

  • R. Smith

2

Yarborough

55

Brody

90

Stevens Wake Mecklenburg Sampson Person Union Surry

33

Gill

39

Jackson

Competitive (14)

7

Barnes

65

Carter

13

McElraft Wake Wake

115

Ager Nash Rockingham Carteret

72

Montgomery

57

Clemmons Buncombe

16

  • C. Smith

6

OPEN (Boswell)

81

Potts Forsyth Guilford

1

Goodwin Pender Davidson

99

Majeed

92

Beasley Chowan

59

Hardister

14

Cleveland

95

Fraley Mecklenburg Mecklenburg

12

Humphrey Guilford Onslow Iredell

107

Alexander

11

Dahle Lenoir

Strong Republican (56)

109

Bumgardner

73

Zachary Mecklenburg Wake

66

Goodman Gaston Yadkin

114

Fisher

18

Butler Richmond

75

Lambeth

26

White

87

Destin Hall Buncombe New Hanover

22

Brisson Forsyth Johnston Caldwell

58

Quick

34

Martin Bladen

45

Szoka

86

Blackwell

89

Setzer Guilford Wake

116

  • B. Turner

Cumberland Burke Catawba

42

Lucas

49

Ball Buncombe

20

Grange

113

Henson

97

Saine Cumberland Wake

119

Queen New Hanover Transylvania Lincoln

101

Logan

5

Hunter Swain

103

Hunt

110

Hastings

91

  • K. Hall

Mecklenburg Hertford

46

  • B. Jones

Mecklenburg Gaston Stokes

43

Floyd

54

Reives Columbus

83

Pittman

108

Torbett

10

  • J. Bell

Cumberland Chatham

40

John Cabarrus Gaston Wayne

106

Cunningham

48

Pierce Wake

118

Presnell

111

  • T. Moore

94

Elmore Mecklenburg Scotland

35

Everitt Yancey Cleveland Wilkes

88

Belk

50

Meyer Wake

64

Riddell

117

McGrady

85

Dobson Mecklenburg Orange

37

Batch Alamance Henderson McDowell

61

Harrison Wake

19

Davis

17

Iler

77

Howard Guilford

63

Ross New Hanover Brunswick Davie

71

Terry Alamance

4

Dixon

28

Strickland

67

Sasser Forsyth

36

Von Haefen Duplin Johnston Stanly

27

Wray Wake

53

Lewis

52

Boles

80

Jarvis Northampton

51

Sauls Harnett Moore Davidson

32

Garrison Lee

79

Kidwell

96

Adams

70

Hurley Vance Beaufort Catawba Randolph

30

Morey

98

Clark

15

Shepard

78

McNeill Durham Mecklenburg Onslow Randolph

3

Speciale

112

Rogers Craven Rutherford

FLI P FLI P

Blue Star = New Democratic Representative Red Star = New Republican Representative

FLI P FLI P FLI P FLI P FLI P FLI P FLI P FLI P FLI P FLI P FLI P FLI P

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SLIDE 17

NC House – Campaign Finances

2018 Q3 Receipts % Share 2018 Q3 Expenditures % Share 2018 Q3 COH % Share Democrats $9,902,080.64 61.4% $10,027,372.90 54.7% $2,802,117.92 51.4%

Republicans

$6,221,971.68 38.6% $8,305,082.29 45.3% $2,642,496.45 48.4% Other $14,974.93 0.1% $14,884.52 0.1% $9,555.85 0.2% Total $16,139,027.25 100.0% $18,347,339.71 100.0% $5,454,170.22 100.0% Difference $3,680,108.96 $1,722,290.61 $159,621.47

103 Rep. Brawley (R) vs Rachel Hunt (D) $660k 98 Rep. Bradford (R) vs Christy Clark $629k 37 John Adcock (R) vs Sydney Batch $507k 36 Rep. Dollar (R) vs Julie Von Haefen (D) $469k 35 Rep. Malone (R) vs Terrence Everitt $329k 105 Rep. Stone (R) vs Wesley Harris (D) $291k 6 Bobby Hanig (R) vs Tess Judge (D) $263k 51 Rep. Sauls (R) vs Lisa Mathis (D) $238k 74 Rep. Conrad (R) vs Terri Legrand (D) $237k 119 Rep. Clampitt (R) vs Joe Sam Queen (D) $229k 93 Rep. Jordan (R) vs Ray Russell (D) $197k 19 Rep. Davis (R) vs Marcia Morgan (D) $186k 20 Rep. Grange (R) vs Leslie Cohen (D) $186k 1 Ed Goodwin (R) vs Ron Wesson (D) $137k 118 Rep. Presnell (R) vs Rhonda Schendeval (D) $118k 63 Rep. Ross (R) vs Erica McAdoo (D) $118k 66 Joey Davis (R) vs Rep. Ken Goodman (D) $71k 116 Marilyn Brown (R) vs Rep. Brian Turner (D) $57k 83 Rep. Pittman (R) vs Gail Young (D) $37k 7 Lisa Barnes (R) vs Rep. Bobbie Richardson (D) $25k 59 Rep. Hardister (R) vs Steve Buccini $22k 82 Rep. Johnson (R) vs Aimy Steele (D) $21k 104 Rep. Dulin (R) vs Brandon Lofton (D) $2k 62 Rep. Faircloth (R) vs Martha Shafer (D) $1k

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SLIDE 18

Key NC House Results - Rural

NC House District 1

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive R Edward (Ed) Goodwin 53.1% D Ronald (Ron) Wesson 46.9%

NC House District 2

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Lean Republican D Darryl Moss 44.6% R Larry Yarborough 55.4% Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Strong Republican D Tess Judge 44.9% R Bobby Hanig 55.1%

NC House District 6 NC House District 7

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Lean Republican D Bobbie Richardson 42.0% R Lisa Stone Barnes 58.0%

GOP Pickup

NC House District 12

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive D George Graham 43.2% R Chris Humphrey 56.8%

GOP Pickup

NC House District 22

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive D Martin (Tony) Denning 43.3% R William Brisson 56.7%

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SLIDE 19

Key NC House Results - Rural

NC House District 51 NC House District 118

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Strong Republican R Michele D. Presell 57.2% D

Rhonda Schandevel 42.8% Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results Competitive D Lisa Mathis 47.1% R John Sauls 52.9%

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SLIDE 20

Key NC House Results - Rural

NC House District 21

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Lean Democratic R Robert Freeman 47.4% D Raymond Smith 52.6%

NC House District 24

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Lean Democratic D Jean Farmer Butterfield 50.8% U Ken Fontenot 49.2%

NC House District 25 NC House District 66 NC House District 119

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive R Mike Clampitt 47.7% D Joe Sam Queen 52.3% Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Lean Democratic D James Gailliard 51.4% R John M. Check 45.2% L Nick Taylor 3.4%

Dem Pickup

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive D Ken Goodman 50.9% R Joey Davis 47.0% L Justin Miller 2.1%

Dem Pickup

NC House District 93

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Lean Republican R Jonathan C. Jordan 48.0% D Ray Russell 52.0%

Dem Pickup

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SLIDE 21

Key NC House Results – Suburban

NC House District 35 NC House District 36 NC House District 37 NC House District 40 NC House District 44

Partisan District Rating Party Name Results Competitive D Billy Richardson 56.5% R Linda Devore 43.5%

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive L Michael Nelson 3.4% D Terrence Everitt 51.1% R Chris Malone 45.6%

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive L Robyn Haley Pegram 3.0% D Julie von Haefen 49.3% R Nelson Dollar 47.7%

Dem Pickup Dem Pickup Dem Pickup

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive L Guy Meilleur 2.2% D Sydney Batch 49.8% R John B. Adcock 48.0%

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive L David Ulmer 3.8% D John John 51.5% R Marilyn Avila 44.8%

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SLIDE 22

Key NC House Results – Suburban

NC House District 98 NC House District 103 NC House District 104 NC House District 105 NC House District 115

Partisan District Rating Party Name Results Competitive R Amy Evans 41.8% D John Ager 58.2%

NC House District 116

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive R Marilyn Brown 45.1% D Brian Turner 54.9%

Dem Pickup Dem Pickup Dem Pickup

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Strong Republican D Christy Clark 50.4% R John Bradford 49.6% Recount? Difference: 333 votes Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Strong Republican D Rachel Hunt 50.1% R Bill Brawley 49.9% Recount?

Dem Pickup

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Lean Republican R Scott Stone 47.8% D Wesley Harris 52.2% Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Lean Republican D Brandon Lofton 51.6% R Andy Dulin 48.4%

*

Difference: 62 votes

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SLIDE 23

Key NC House Results – Suburban

NC House District 59 NC House District 62 NC House District 63 NC House District 74

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Lean Republican R Jon Hardister 56.7% D Steven Buccini 43.3% Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Strong Republican D Martha R. Shafer 42.6% R John Faircloth 57.4% Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive D Erica McAdoo 49.5% R Stephen Ross 50.5% Recount? Difference: 295 votes Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Strong Republican R Debra Conrad 54.5% D Terri LeGrand 45.5%

NC House District 19 NC House District 20

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Strong Republican R Holly Grange 52.8% D Leslie Cohen 47.2%

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Strong Republican R Ted Davis, Jr. 49.4% D Marcia Morgan 46.8% L David Perry 3.8%

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SLIDE 24

Key NC House Results – Suburban

NC House District 83

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Strong Republican R Larry G. Pittman 52.9% D Gail Young 47.1%

NC House District 75

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Strong Republican R Donny Lambeth 52.5% D Dan Besse 47.5%

NC House District 82

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Strong Republican R Linda Johnson 52.9% D Aimy Steele 47.1%

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SLIDE 25

NC House Retirements & Losses

NC House Democrats Republicans Mickey Michaux (19.5) Susan Martin (3) Larry Bell (9) Bert Jones (4) Beverly Earle (12) Sam Watford (2) Ed Hanes (3) John Blust (1, 9) Rodney Moore (4) Jeff Collins (4) Duane Hall (3) Linda Hunt Williams (1) George Graham (3) Bob Muller (.5) Bobbie Richardson (3) Justin Burr (5) Beverly Boswell (1) Chris Malone (3) Nelson Dollar (7) Jonathan Jordan (4) John Bradford (2) Andy Dulin (1) Scott Stone (1.5) Mike Clampitt (1) Bob Steinburg (Senate) Carl Ford (Senate) Bill Brawley (4)? Subtotal: 8 Subtotal: 18 Total: 26

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SLIDE 26

Freshman Class – NC House

Ashton Clemmons

(D-Guilford)

Nasif Majeed

(D-Mecklenburg)

Kandie Smith

(D-Pitt)

Zack Hawkins

(D-Durham)

Derwin Montgomery

(D-Forsyth)

Joe Sam Queen

(D-Jackson)

Carson Smith

(R-Pender)

Allison Dahle

(D-Wake)

Carolyn Logan

(D-Mecklenburg)

Raymond Smith

(D-Sampson)

Ray Russell

(D-Watauga)

Christy Clark

(D-Mecklenburg)

Sydney Batch

(D-Wake)

Julie von Heafen

(D-Wake)

Keith Kidwell

(R-Beaufort)

Wayne Sasser

(R-Stanly)

Lisa Stone Barnes

(R-Nash)

Steve Jarvis

(R-Davidson)

Jerry Carter

(R-Rockingham)

Ed Goodwin

(R-Chowan)

Chris Humphrey

(R-Lenoir)

John Gailliard

(D-Nash)

Wesley Harris

(D-Mecklenburg)

Terrence Everitt

(D-Wake)

Brandon Lofton

(D-Mecklenburg)

Bobby Hanig

(R-Currituck)

Rachel Hunt

(D-Mecklenburg)

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SLIDE 27

NC Senate

Republicans: 29 Democrats: 21

Blue Star = New Democratic Senator Red Star = New Republican Senator

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SLIDE 28

NC Senate – Key Results & Takeaways

Republicans loses supermajority 

Republicans: 29

Democrats: 21

Democrats +6 (pending potential recounts)

2010 comparison: GOP +11

The role of redistricting 

Hurt GOP in Districts 19 (Meredith), 27 (Wade), 41 (Tarte)

Created a Democratic seat to shore up Districts 17 (Barringer) & 18 (Alexander)

 Sen. Barringer still loses, perhaps saved Sen. Alexander

Urban/Suburban - Rural Divide 

Wake

 2017: 2 Democrats, 3 Republicans  2019: 4 Democrats, 1 Republican

Mecklenburg

 2017: 3 Democrats, 2 Republicans  2019: 4 Democrats, 1 Republican

39% of NC Senate Democratic caucus from Wake or Mecklenburg Counties

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SLIDE 29

NCFEF Partisan District Ratings – NC Senate Strong Democratic (15) Lean Democratic (1) Competitive (7) Lean Republican (8) Strong Republican (19)

20 McKissick 5

  • D. Davis

13 Britt 18 Alexander 30 Berger

Durham Greene Robeson Wake Rockingham

38 OPEN (Ford) 19 Meredith 17 Barringer 6 Brown

Mecklenburg Cumberland Wake Onslow

37

  • J. Jackson

41 Tarte 27 Wade 47 Hise

Mecklenburg Mecklenburg Guilford McDowell

28 Robinson 1 OPEN 24 Gunn 45 Ballard (&Randleman)

Guilford

  • Alamance

Wilkes & Watauga

40 Waddell 9 Lee 11 Horner 26 Tillman

Mecklenburg New Hanover Nash Randolph

32 Lowe 25 McInnis 10

  • B. Jackson

43 Harrington

Forsyth Richmond Sampson Gaston

14 Blue 7 Pate 12 OPEN (Rabin) 44 OPEN (Curtis)

Wake Wayne

  • Lincoln

15 Chaudhuri 8 Rabon 31 Krawiec (& Barrett)

Wake Brunswick Forsyth & Davie

21 Clark

Strong Republican (19)

33 OPEN

Hoke

  • 23

Foushee 39 Bishop 46 Daniel

Orange Mecklenburg Burke

4 OPEN 48 Edwards 35 OPEN (Tucker)

  • Henderson
  • 22

Woodard 50

  • J. Davis

42 Wells

Durham Cherokee Catawba

49 Van Duyn 36 Newton 34 OPEN

Buncombe Cabarrus

  • 16

OPEN 2 Sanderson 29 OPEN (Dunn)

  • Pamilco
  • 3

Smith

Edgecombe

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SLIDE 30

NCFEF Partisan District Ratings – NC Senate Strong Democratic (15) Lean Democratic (1) Competitive (7) Lean Republican (8) Strong Republican (19)

20 McKissick 5

  • D. Davis

13 Britt 18 Alexander 30 Berger

Durham Greene Robeson Wake Rockingham

38 Mohammed 19 deViere 17 Searcy 6 Brown

Mecklenburg Cumberland Wake Onslow

37

  • J. Jackson

41 Marcus 27 Garrett 47 Hise

Mecklenburg Mecklenburg Guilford McDowell

28 Robinson 1 Steinburg 24 Gunn 45 Ballard

Guilford Chowan Alamance Wilkes & Watauga

40 Waddell 9 Peterson 11 Horner 26 Tillman

Mecklenburg New Hanover Nash Randolph

32 Lowe 25 McInnis 10

  • B. Jackson

43 Harrington

Forsyth Richmond Sampson Gaston

14 Blue 7 Pate 12 Burgin 44 Alexander

Wake Wayne Harnett Cleveland

15 Chaudhuri 8 Rabon 31 Krawiec

Wake Brunswick Forsyth

21 Clark

Strong Republican (19)

33 Ford

Hoke Rowan

23 Foushee 39 Bishop 46 Daniel

Orange Mecklenburg Burke

4 Fitch 48 Edwards 35 Johnson

Nash Henderson Union

22 Woodard 50

  • J. Davis

42 Wells

Durham Cherokee Catawba

49 Van Duyn 36 Newton 34 Sawyer

Buncombe Cabarrus

  • 16

Nickel 2 Sanderson 29 OPEN (Dunn)

Wake Pamilco

  • 3

Smith

Edgecombe

Blue Star = New Democratic Senator Red Star = New Republican Senator

FLI P FLI P FLI P FLI P FLI P FLI P

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SLIDE 31

Pick-ups – NC Senate

 Democratic Pick-ups

 9: Sen. Lee (R) to Harper Peterson (D)  17: Sen. Barringer (R) to Sam Searcy (D)  19: Sen. Meredith to Kirk deViere (D)  27: Wade (R) to Michael Garrett (D)  41: Sen. Tarte (R) to Natasha Marcus (D)  Open Seat

 16: Wiley Nickel (D)

Dem +6

Recount? Recount? Recount?

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SLIDE 32

NC Senate– Campaign Finances

2018 Q3 Receipts % Share 2018 Q3 Expenditures % Share 2018 Q3 COH % Share Democrats $4,673,613.20 44.9% $4,854,916.34 37.4% $1,529,108.61 31.8% Republicans $5,737,496.53 55.1% $8,126,784.43 62.6% $3,272,778.26 68.1% Libertarians $2,391.80 0.0% $10,641.24 0.1% $1,129.44 0.0% Total $10,413,501.53 100.0% $12,992,342.01 100.0% $4,803,016.31 100.0% Difference $1,063,883.33 $3,271,868.09 $1,743,669.65 27 Sen. Wade (R) vs Michael Garrett (D) $385k 19 Sen. Meredith (R) vs Kirk deViere (D) $349k 9 Sen. Lee (R) vs Harper Peterson $191k 25 Sen. McInnis (R) vs Helen Mills (D) $159k 18 Sen. Alexander (R) vs Mack Paul (D) $155k 17 Sen. Barringer (R) vs Sam Searcy (D) $151k 41 Sen. Tarte (R) vs Natasha Marcus (D) $123k 1 Bob Steinburg (R) vs Phelps (D) $111k 24 Sen. Gunn (R) vs JD Wooten (D) $50k 13 Sen. Britt (R) vs Campbell (D) $27k 39 Sen. Bishop (R) vs Stachowicz (D) $21k 7 Sen. Pate (R) vs David Brantley (D) $9k

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SLIDE 33

Key NC Senate Results - Rural

NC Senate District 1

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive R Bob Steinburg 53.2% D

  • D. Cole Phelps

46.8%

NC Senate District 7

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive D David Brantley 45.8% R Louis Pate 54.2% Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive R Danny Earl Britt 62.8% D John Campbell 37.2%

NC Senate District 13 NC Senate District 25

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive R Tom McInnis 57.2% D

Helen Probst Mills

42.8%

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SLIDE 34

Key NC Senate Results – Suburban

NC Senate District 9 NC Senate District 17 NC Senate District 19 NC Senate District 27 NC Senate District 41

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive D Natasha Marcus 56.7% R Jeff Tarte 43.3% Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive R Wesley Meredith 49.7% D Kirk DeViere 50.3% Recount? Difference: 36 votes Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Lean Republican R Trudy Wade 49.6% D Michael Garrett 50.4% Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Competitive R Michael Lee 48.4% D Harper Peterson 48.5% L Ethan Bickley 3.1%

Dem Pickup Dem Pickup

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Lean Republican R

Tamara Barringer

46.5% D Sam Searcy 50.4% L Bruce Basson 3.0%

Dem Pickup

Recount? Difference: 306 votes

Dem Pickup

Recount? Difference: 763 votes

Dem Pickup

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SLIDE 35

Key NC Senate Results – Suburban

NC Senate District 18 NC Senate District 24 NC Senate District 39

Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Lean Republican R Rick Gunn 53.9% D J.D. Wooten 46.1% Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Strong Republican D Chad Stachowicz 46.9% R Dan Bishop 53.1% Partisan District Rating Party Name

Results

Lean Republican R John Alexander 49.9% D Mack Paul 47.4% L Brad Hessel 2.7%

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SLIDE 36

NC Senate Retirements & Losses

Senate Democrats Republicans Angela Bryant (3, 3) Chad Barefoot (3) Joel Ford (3) Tommy Tucker (4) Bill Cook (3, 1) Cathy Dunn (1) Ron Rabin (3) David Curtis (3) Shirley Randleman (2,3) Dan Barrett (.5) Michael Lee (2.5) Tamara Barringer (3.5) Wesley Meredith (4) Trudy Wade (3) Jeff Tarte (3) Subtotal: 2 Subtotal: 13 Total: 15

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SLIDE 37

Freshman Class – NC Senate

Mujtaba Mohammed

(D-Mecklenburg)

Sam Searcy

(D-Wake)

Wiley Nickel

(D-Wake)

Toby Fitch

(D-Nash)

Michael Garrett

(D-Guilford)

Harper Peterson

(D-New Hanover)

Jim Burgin

(R-Harnett)

Kirk deViere

(D-Cumberland)

Natasha Marcus

(D-Mecklenburg)

Ted Alexander

(R-Cleveland)

Vickie Sawyer

(R-Iredell)

Bob Steinburg

(R-Chowan)

Eddie Gallimore

(R-Davidson)

Todd Johnson

(R-Union)

Carl Ford

(R-Rowan)

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SLIDE 38

Key Dates

 Mail-in Absentee Ballots

 Must post-marked by November 6  Returned by November 9

 County Canvass 7 Election Certification

 Friday, November 16

 Recount

 A candidate can request a recount if the margin of

victory separating the winning candidate from the second-place finisher is 1% or less of the total number of votes cast for that office.

 For statewide elections, a candidate can request a

recount if the margin of victory separating the winning candidate from the second-place finisher is 0.5 percent or less of the total number of votes cast for that office, or 10,000 votes, whichever is less

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SLIDE 39

Urban – Rural Divide

Preliminary Data

NC House Rural Rural % Suburban Suburban % Urban Urban % Total Republican 47 72.3% 18 27.7% 0.0% 65 Democrat 12 21.8% 20 36.4% 23 41.8% 55 Total 59 49.2% 38 31.7% 23 19.2% 120 NC Senate Rural Rural % Suburban Suburban % Urban Urban % Total Republican 20 69.0% 9 31.0% 0.0% 29 Democrat 3 14.3% 8 38.1% 10 47.6% 21 Total 23 46.0% 17 34.0% 10 20.0% 50

Takeaway: 72% of NC House Republicans are from Rural districts, just 22% of Democrats are (most are majority-minority districts). Takeaway: 69% of NC Senate Republicans are from Rural districts, just 14% of Democrats are (all are majority-minority districts).

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SLIDE 40

NC House GOP GOP % Dem Dem % Total Rural 47 79.7% 12 20.3% 59 Suburban 18 47.4% 20 52.6% 38 Urban 0.0% 23 100.0% 23 NC Senate GOP GOP % Dem Dem % Total Rural 20 87.0% 3 13.0% 23 Suburban 9 52.9% 8 47.1% 17 Urban 0.0% 10 100.0% 10

Takeaway: 80% of all NC House Rural districts are held by

  • Republicans. Democrats hold all of the Urban NC House districts.

Takeaway: 87% of all NC Senate Rural districts are held by

  • Republicans. Democrats hold all of the Urban NC Senate districts.

Urban – Rural Divide

Preliminary Data

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SLIDE 41

Year of the Woman?

Women Serving in the NC House 2001 2003* 2005 2007* 2009* 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Democrat 14 18 22 26 26 23 14 14 17 24 Republican 14 11 10 12 12 12 13 12 13 11 Total 28 29 32 38 38 35 27 26 30 35

*2003 Note: Rep. Constance K. Wilson resigned 10/15/04. *2007 Note: Tricia Ann Cotham appointed 3/22/07, Rep. Thomas E. Wright expelled 3/20/08. (Sandra Spaulding Hughes appointed 4/8/08). *2009 Note: Rep. Margaret H. Dickson resigned 1/21/10 (Diane Parfitt appointed 2/19/10), Rep. Bruce Goforth resigned 7/31/10 (Rep. Patsy Keever appointed 9/7/10).

Women Serving in the NC Senate 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009* 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Democrat 5 4 7 6 5 3 5 7 5 6 Republican 1 1 1 2 3 5 6 7 4 Total 6 5 7 7 7 6 10 13 12 10

*2009 Note: Senator Margaret H. Dickson, District 19, Cumberland County (Appt. 1/21/10 – to replace Senator Tony Rand.)

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SLIDE 42

NCGA Turnover

NC House of Representatives 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 New Members 12.5% 29.2% 18.3% 17.5% 19.2% 30.0% 39.2% 20.0% 19.2% 22.5% Democrats 11.3% 29.3% 17.5% 16.2% 14.7% 14.7% 34.9% 22.2% 22.2% 32.7% Republicans 13.8% 29.0% 19.3% 19.2% 25.0% 25.0% 40.3% 18.9% 17.3% 13.6% NC Senate Year 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 New Members 10.0% 34.0% 24.0% 12.0% 12.0% 38.0% 42.0% 20.0% 14.0% 30.0% Democrats 8.3% 25.9% 20.7% 16.1% 13.3% 15.8% 58.8% 31.3% 6.7% 38.1% Republicans 14.3% 43.5% 28.6% 5.3% 10.0% 51.6% 33.3% 14.7% 17.1% 24.1%

Years of Legislative Service Leaving Dems: 131 years GOP: 187 years Total: 318 years

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SLIDE 43

Proportion of Votes vs Seats

 NC House:

 GOP 55% of the seats, 48.5% of the votes  Dem 45% of the seats, 50.9% of the votes

 NC Senate:

 GOP 58% of the seats, 49.1% of the votes  Dems 42% of the seats, 50.0% of the votes

 US House:

 GOP 77% of the seats, 50.3% of the votes  Dems 23% of the seats, 48.4% of the votes

2018 Preliminary Cumulative Votes Cast 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 GOP Dem Other GOP Dem Other GOP Dem Other GOP Dem Other GOP Dem Other

NC House

58.7% 40.5% 0.8% 50.5% 48.9% 0.5% 54.1% 45.6% 0.3% 52.3% 46.6% 1.1% 48.5% 50.9% 0.6%

NC Senate 58.1% 41.4% 0.5% 52.6% 47.4% 0.1% 53.8% 45.3% 0.9% 55.5% 43.8% 0.7% 49.1% 50.0% 0.9% Note: 2018 results are preliminary & missing a few precincts

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SLIDE 44

Other Key Takeaways

 Turnout

 Preliminary turnout rate: 52.40%

 2006: 36.5%  Average Midterm: 42%

 3,714,872 out of 7,089,657 registered voters  Now 2,069,654 total early votes cast  More voters shifting to early voting

 27% of 2014 Election Day voters, voted early in 2018  55.5% of all votes were cast early

 Provisional ballots to be counted & included in totals

today (Friday November 16)

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SLIDE 45

Turnout

slide-46
SLIDE 46

Turnout

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SLIDE 47

What comes next

 Lame Duck session

 Where the NCGA really begins acting like Congress?  Hurricane recovery-inspired bipartisanship reigns?

 2011-12 as a guide?

 Similarities

 Dem Governor, GOP NCGA majorities  Heading into a Presidential Election year with a National

party convention in Charlotte

 Differences

 Parties are more ideologically consistent

 Fewer moderates in either party – notably traditional

conservative or business-oriented Democrats

 Who are the dealmakers?

 Issue specific coalitions? Total Stalemate?

A lot of activity without a lot getting done?

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SLIDE 48

What comes next

Legislators Elected in 2010 or After NC House NC Senate Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans # Elected 2010 or After 40 52 17 25 Caucus total 55 65 21 29 Percent of caucus total 73% 80% 81% 86% Chamber total 120 50 % of chamber total 77% 84%

Takeaway: Most GOP members have only really known having a strong upper hand & few Democrats have experience making key legislative policy decisions

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SLIDE 49

Key Elections To Watch 2020 President US Sen (Tillis seat) & Congress State Legislative Governor + Council of State OPEN SEAT for Lt Gov

  • ther Council of State?

RE-ELECT for Cooper/Trump 2022 US Sen (Burr seat) & Congress State Legislative ALL NEW DISTRICTS State Leg & Congressional (New 14th) FIRST/FINAL MIDTERM 2024 President Congress (No US Sen) State Legislative Governor + Council of State OPEN SEAT or RE-ELECT Gov/President 2026 US Sen (Tillis seat) & Congress State Legislative FIRST/FINAL MIDTERM 1,000,000+ population growth

This NCGA draws the new maps Open Seat US Senate race? Urbanization = partisan shift in NCGA? Dem swing in Pres race?

And Then… (I know, I know)

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SLIDE 50

2018 Leadership Luncheon Wednesday, December 5, 2018 Angus Barn 9401 Glenwood Ave, Raleigh, 27617