Nitrogen Emissions from U.S. Transportation Sources John Davies - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Nitrogen Emissions from U.S. Transportation Sources John Davies Office of Transportation and Air Quality U.S. EPA April. 9, 2008 Overview Transportation Combustion emissions NO x N 2 O Relative significance of activity trends and
Transportation Combustion emissions
NOx N2O Relative significance of activity trends and emissions
Factors affecting transportation fuel consumption
Relationship of NOx / N2O emissions controls to
Industrial processes, waste disposal & other 7% On-Road Vehicles 43% Stationary Fuel Combustion 38% Nonroad Vehicles
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse
12%
Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
Other Sources 14% On-Road Vehicles Agricultural and Soil 7% Management 78% Non-Road Mobile 0.8%
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
1. 0% HFCs 95.1% 1. 0% HFCs 95.1%
HFCs, PFCs N2O HFCs N2O HFCs CH4 CH4 7.4% 7.4% CO2 95.1% CH4 0.1% 7% 3. CO2 85% N2O 6.5% 2.2% CO2 83.8% CO2 CO2 95.1% CH4 0.1% 7% 3. CO2 85% N2O 6.5% 2.2% CO2 83.8% CO2 & SF6 1.9% 3.3% 94.7.%
All U.S. Sources Transportation Only All U.S. Sources Transportation Only
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
Population GDP Light-Duty Vehicles Freight Trucks Commercial Aircraft
+68.8% Vehicle Miles Traveled +39% Ton-Miles +58% Passenger Miles Traveled +19% +55%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Sources: Highway Statistics 2006 Table VM-1, National Transportation Statistics 2005 Table 4-21
Commercial Aircraft Freight Trucks Vehicles
+68.8%
GDP
Light-Duty
Vehicle Miles Traveled +39% Ton-Miles +58% Passenger Miles Traveled
Population
+19% +55%
Road + Air N20
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Sources: Highway Statistics 2006 Table VM-1, National Transportation Statistics 2005 Table 4-21 Inventory of U.S. GHG Emissions and Sinks
Commercial Aircraft Freight Trucks Vehicles
+68.8% NOx N2O NOx N2O NOx N2O
Light-Duty
Vehicle Miles Traveled +39% Ton-Miles +58% Passenger Miles Traveled
+1% +62% +35.2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Sources: Highway Statistics 2006 Table VM-1, National Transportation Statistics 2005 Table 4-21
EPA Tier O – B arl EPA Tier 1 – 1990
U.S. NOx Emissions, 1970 - 2006
Millions of short tons
30.00 25.00 20.00 Other 15.00 Stationary Fuel Combustion 10.00 Nonroad Vehicles 5.00 On-Road Vehicles 0.00
1 970 1 975 1 980 1 985 1 990 1 995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
egan e y Oxidation Catalyst 1975 to 1980 (cars) 1980s; common until 1984 EPA Tier 2 - 2004 Added advanced emissions and 1980 to 1985 Implemented in cars and LD controls, including elec. Added more advanced (trucks) trucks Controlled fuel injection & emissions controls, including ignition timing, EGR and air improved combustion, 3-way catalyst; on-board NOx reduced 90 percent from diagnostic computer and oxygen injection sensor NOx reduced 60 percent from Tier 0 Reduced NOX to nitrogen and Tier 0 Nonroad Diesel
Diesel truck Rule and bus Locomotive and standards Marine Rule
600 500
Other
400 300
Agricultural and Soil
200
Management
100
Nonoad Mobile On-Road Vehicles
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
Transportation GHG Emissions by Gas (Indexed to 1990)
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
CO2 N2O CH4
1975 1980
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Oxidation EPA Tier O – EPA Tier 1 EPA Tier 2 – 2004 Catalyst 1975 to 1980 (cars) and 1980 to 1985 (trucks) Increased per-mile N2O through NOx controls Reduced N2O emissions rates, but still higher than non-catalyst systems Reduced N2O emissions by 90 percent relative to Tier 1 Increased N2O emissions rate Rate = Rate = Rate = 0.0036 g / mi almost 3X 0.064 g / mi 0.0429 g / mi Rate = 0.050 g / mile
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
Share of
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
Mobile Emissions Transportation
2005
(Tg CO2 Eq.) Sector GHGs
i
28%
2 Eq)
72%
2 Eq) 95.6 (Official Estimate)
632.9 566.7
ing 53.1
385.8
i 191.8
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emiss ons and Sinks, 1990-2005
Transportation
(2014.0 Tg CO
Other Sectors
(5246.7 Tg CO
International Bunkers - Air and Marine Reported in Inventory, but not included in U.S. Total GHG Estimate or
Passenger Cars Light-Duty Trucks
Mobile Air Condition
Freight Trucks
Commercial Aircraft 158.1
Buses and Motorcycles 17.1
Other Non-Road 176.2
Lubricants 10.2
Non-Transportation Mob le Sources
Refrigerated Transport 13.6 Included primarily in Industrial sector estimates
0.5% 8.7% 7.9% 0.7%
19.1%
0.8% 2.6% 59.5% N/A N/A
Transportation Sector Estimate
Transportation Non-Transportation Mobile Other U.S. Sources
129.1 191.8 6242.0 7260.4 1526.1 1496.0 1539.4 1592.6 1645.2 1680.3 1723.0 1750.4 1785.2 1852.2 1906.7 1879.8 1934.7 1932.5 1987.1 2014.2
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Absolute increase, 1990-2005 Percent Change, 1990-2005
Transportation + 487.9 Tg CO2 Eq. Transportation +32.0% Non-Trans Mobile +62.7 Tg Co2 Eq. Non-Trans Mobile +48.6% All other sources + 467.8 Tg CO2 Eq. All other sources + 10.2% Total +1018.4 Tg CO2 Eq. Total (including transport) +16.3%
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
Impact of U.S. Fuel Consumption since 1990 US CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000
Other U.S. Sources Non-Transportation Mobile Transportation
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Absolute increase, 1990-2005 Percent Change, 1990-2005
Transportation + 431.9 Tg Transportation +29.4% Non-Trans Mobile + 62.1 Tg Non-Trans Mobile +48.6% All other sources + 534.1 Tg All other sources + 11.2% Total +1027.1 Tg Total (including transport) +21.7%
1990 2005
10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 Transportation Other U.S. Sectors 12,956 lbs 14,112 lbs 27,634 lbs 27,237 lbs 41,720lbs 42,762 lbs 1,130 lbs 1,412.7 lbs Non-Trans Mobile Sources: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005 U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
6089.5
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000
5061.6
1990 2005
609.1 539.3 482.0 468.6 163.0 89.3
CO2 CH4 N2O
and SF6
1478.8 1908.1 36.5 67.1 42.7
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1990 2005
4.5 N/A 2.3
CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs.
(Reflects the phase-in HFCs for ozone- deleting substances)
1 1 99.6
1200 1000 800 600 400 200
Light-Duty Freight Trucks Commercial Other* Vehicles Aricraft
1990 2005
69.4% 972.6 227.7 1 88.1 385.8 1 58.1 270.5 1 37.7
14.8% 23.3%
*Other GHGs include emissions from HFCs, which were introduced beginning in the early 1990s to replace ozone depleting substances; increase from 1990 is not meaningful. Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2005
Light-Duty Vehicles Freight Trucks Commercial Aircraft
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
+68.8% Vehicle Miles Traveled +39% Vehicle Miles +52% Passenger Miles Traveled Sources: Highway Statistics 2006 Table VM-1, National Transportation Statistics 2005 Table 4-21
Light-Duty Vehicles Freight Trucks Commercial Aircraft
+23.3% GHGs +69.4% +14.8% GHGs /
GHGs / PMT
GHGs / PMT Passenger Miles Traveled +37% GHGs Ton-Miles +58% Passenger Miles Traveled +68.8% GHGs ton-mile +7.3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Sources: Highway Statistics 2006 Table VM-1, National Transportation Statistics 2005 Table 4-21
1990-2005
GHGs up 23.3%; annualized increase of 1.3%
Passenger Car GHGs decreased by just under 2%
LD Truck GHGs increased by 72%
Total VMT up 38 percent (mainly light-duty truck)
2004-2005
GHGs declined very slightly (0.04%)
Likely impact of fuel prices
Passenger Car GHGs decreased for the third year in a row
LD Truck GHGs up 2.7 percent, below avg. annual increase of 3.7 percent from 1990 to 2004
Sources: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2005; Highway Statistics 2005
Tg CO2 Eq.
GHGs from Light-Duty Vehicles, 1990-2005
800
Passenger Cars
700 600 500
Light-Duty Trucks
400 300 200 100 1990 1995 2000 2005
3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000
Up 84.4% Passenger Car VMT Up 19.2%
1,417,823 1,689,965 574,571 1,059,590
Light-Duty Truck VMT
1990 2005
All Light-Duty Vehicles
Sales-Weighted Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles and Total LD Fleet, 1975 - 2005
8 4 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 12 16
leet
New Vehicles
22.1 mpg 21.0 mpg 19.7 mpg 15.1 mpg 13.5 mpg
18.9 mpg
Total LD F
Model Year
Sales of New Light-Duty Vehicles, 1975 - 2005
24 20 Miles per G allon
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000
Li Passenger Cars 7,976 ght-Duty Trucks 7,992
Source: Light-Duty Automotive and Fuel
2000
Economy Trends: 1975 through
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
2006, U.S. EPA
Percent Change in Aircraft PMT and GHG Emissions, 1990-2005
Percentage of Available Seats Occupied
80%
Aircraft Passenger Miles Aircraft GHGs
1990-2005
60%
GHGs increased 14.8 percent
40%
Passenger miles increased 68
20%
percent
GHGs per passenger mile
0%
decreased by 32 percent
Increased passenger loads
1 990 1 995 2000 2005
Increased fuel efficiency of
62 77 71 60.4 61.2 62.4 64.7 65.4 67.9 69.1 69.9 69.8 69.1 70.3 74.4 72.6
Commercial Aircraft Passenger Load Factor, 1990-2005 new aircraft (~2 percent annually)
80 60
2004-2005
GHGs increased 6.4 percent
40
Indicate that we’re approaching a passenger load ceiling?
20 1990 1995 2000 2005
Sources: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2005; National Transportation Statistics 2005
GHGs increased 69.4 percent (3.6 percent
Medium- and havy-duty trucks have become less
Fuel economy of medium trucks (10,000 to 26,000 lbs)
FE of heavy trucks (over 26,000 lbs) decreased from 6.1
Possible explanations for decreased fuel economy
Demand for more powerful engines Impact of congestion Elimination of mandatory speed limits
GHG Emissions (Tg CO2 equiv.)
GHG Emissions, 1990-2005 Ton-Miles, 1990-2004
450 Trucking Water Rail Pipeline Air
1 ,800,000
400
1 ,600,000
350
1 ,400,000
300
1 ,200,000
250
1 ,000,000
200
800,000
150
600,000
100
400,000
50
200,000
1990 1995 2000 2005
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Sources: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2005; National Transportation Statistics 2005
Air Rail
85% 75% 65% 55% 45% 35% 25% 15% 5%
Air Rail Trucking Pipeline ) ity i ions ici Variation between 1990 and 2005 (% Activ Em ss Energy Eff ency
Sources: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2005; National Transportation Statistics 2005