NI LE RI VER BASI N 1. Water Event Intensity Scale 2. Power - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NI LE RI VER BASI N

• 1. Water Event

Intensity Scale

• 2. Power relations:

Hegemony and Counter- Hegemony

WATER EVENT INTENSITY SCALE

BAR SCALE EVENT DESCRIPTION 7 Voluntary unification into one nation 6 International Freshwater Treaty or Major strategic alliance (regional or international) 5 Military economic or strategic support 4 Non-military economic, technological or industrial agreement 3 Cultural or scientific agreement or support (non-strategic) 2 Official verbal support of goals, values, or regime 1 Minor official exchanges, talks or policy expressions--mild verbal support Neutral or non-significant acts for the inter-nation situation

• 1

Mild verbal expressions displaying discord in interaction

• 2

Strong verbal expressions displaying hostility in interaction

• 3

Diplomatic-economic hostile actions

• 4

Political-military hostile actions

• 5

Small scale military acts

• 6

Extensive War Acts causing deaths, dislocation or high strategic cost

• 7

Formal Declaration of War Source: Wolf et al, 2003

WATER EVENT INTENSITY SCALE

Insights Insights

• Identification of historic events and

interactions – Water as the Driver of Water as the Driver of the Event the Event

• Water-related Events ranked by

INTENSITY and NATURE

• Clear definition of conflict and

cooperation – different levels of Intensity

• Visualisation of Trends

Trends and Patterns Patterns

• Analysis – Across riparian states
• Analysis – Across the time
• SCALE – Spectrum

Spectrum of events ranked by intensity (Wolf et., 2002)

Limitations Limitations

• Excessive quantitative focus –

extrapolation of conclusions

• Focus not in Power relations
• Scale does not include Intra-

national events

• TFDD – All water treaties are

coded at the same level of intensity

• f cooperation

BAR Scale – Nile Basin (1945-2004)

Conflict/Cooperation on the Nile

• 7
• 6
• 5
• 4
• 3
• 2
• 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Dates

Bar Scale Egypt/Ethiopia Ethiopia/Sudan Nile Basin Egypt/Sudan Nile-SEC

N B N BI

Nile-TAC

Conver sion of the Cold War alignm ents in the Nile Basin Assassination attem pt

• f Pr esident Mubar ak

in Addis Abeba 1959 Agr eem ent f or Full Utilization of the Nile Water s - Egypt/ S udan Isr ael attacks Nile water s in Egypt End of Cold War Ogaden War Golf War

OAU

S uez Cr isis

BAR Scale – Nile Basin (1945-2004)

Ethiopia-Egypt

• 7
• 6
• 5
• 4
• 3
• 2
• 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

194 4 194 5 194 6 194 7 194 8 194 9 195 195 1 195 2 195 3 195 4 195 5 195 6 195 7 195 8 195 9 196 196 1 196 2 196 3 196 4 196 5 196 6 196 7 196 8 196 9 197 197 1 197 2 197 3 197 4 197 5 197 6 197 7 197 8 197 9 198 198 1 198 2 198 3 198 4 198 5 198 6 198 7 198 8 198 9 199 199 1 199 2 199 3 199 4 199 5 199 6 199 7 199 8 199 9 200 200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4

Dates

Bar Scale Egypt/Ethiopia Ethiopia/Sudan Nile Basin Egypt/Sudan

Nile-SEC

N BI N BI

Nile-TAC

Conversion of the Cold War alignments in the Nile Basin Assassination sttempt of President M ubarak in Addis Abeba 1 959 Agreement for Full Utilization of the Nile Waters - Egypt/Sudan Israel ataca águas do Nilo, no Egipto End of Cold War Ogaden War Golf War

OAU

Suez Crisis

NILE – Power relations

Downstream

• Egypt – the downstream Hegemon
• “Stable Control” of Nile waters
• Methods: hydraulic mission, securitisation,

knowledge construction, sanctioned discourse, etc.

• Accumulation of Power
• Hegemony
• Goal: Status quo

LEADERSHIP LEGITIMACY IDEAS CONSENT

Gramsci, 1971

NILE – Power relations

Upstream

• Upstream – no mobilisation of resources
• “Historical consent” to Hegemony

Ethiopia – “incapacity” Sudan – “unwillingness” White Nile – “wait-and-see”

• Ethiopia – the “silent partner” in the Nile?

From Consent Consent to Contest Contest

“When there is hegemony, there is always a “When there is hegemony, there is always a locus for counter locus for counter-

• hegemony”

hegemony”

(Warner, 2000)

“War of position” “War of position”

(Gramsci, 1971)

ETHIOPIA – Challenges to Hegemony

Inverted Triangle – How to challenge Hydro-Hegemony?

Tactics Strategies SH Goal

SHARED CONTROL

Reactive and Active Diplomacy Desecuritisation Reinforced cooperation Financial mobilisation Knowledge/expertise construction Discourse alternatives Claim for legal principles Needs-approach Water infrastructures construction Economic and institutional development Social and political adaptive capacities Political feasibility

COUNTER-HEGEMONIC TACTICS

• Political feasibility

Political feasibility – central tactic

• Diplomacy

Diplomacy – Letters of protest, participation in conferences and forums, transnational lobby campaigns, grasp international support

• Desecuritisation

Desecuritisation – institutional arrangements, capacity and confidence-building, changing perceptions, water regimes “Regimes begin at home” “Regimes begin at home” (Waterbury, 2002)

COUNTER-HEGEMONIC TACTICS

• Reinforced Cooperation (NBI)

Reinforced Cooperation (NBI) – constructive shared control, win-win outcomes, “watchdog” to avoid domination

• International

financial commitment International financial commitment – multilateral and regional banks, mix public- private, incremental mix, NBI

• Knowledge/expertise

Knowledge/expertise – improve expertise, create knowledge, accurate information, dissemination, public debates (interests groups)

COUNTER-HEGEMONIC TACTICS

• Discourse

alternatives Discourse alternatives – deligitimise “sanctioned discourse” and belief systems, emphasis on “new” knowledge, prevent areas

• f ignorance
• Legal principles

Legal principles – focus on “equitable use”, refutation of 1959 Agreement, D3 Project

• Rights approach

Rights approach – move from a rights-based perspective to needs-based approach (Wolf,

1999), clear definition of needs

CONCLUSION

Challenge the status quo 90s – new context – Nile Basin Initiative Nile Basin Initiative Ongoing cooperation process Goal: Shared control Political momentum