NI LE RI VER BASI N 1. Water Event Intensity Scale 2. Power - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NI LE RI VER BASI N 1. Water Event Intensity Scale 2. Power relations: Hegemony and Counter- Hegemony

WATER EVENT INTENSITY SCALE BAR EVENT DESCRIPTION SCALE 7 Voluntary unification into one nation International Freshwater Treaty or Major strategic alliance (regional or international) 6 5 Military economic or strategic support 4 Non-military economic, technological or industrial agreement 3 Cultural or scientific agreement or support (non-strategic) 2 Official verbal support of goals, values, or regime 1 Minor official exchanges, talks or policy expressions--mild verbal support 0 Neutral or non-significant acts for the inter-nation situation -1 Mild verbal expressions displaying discord in interaction Strong verbal expressions displaying hostility in interaction -2 -3 Diplomatic-economic hostile actions -4 Political-military hostile actions -5 Small scale military acts -6 Extensive War Acts causing deaths, dislocation or high strategic cost -7 Formal Declaration of War Source: Wolf et al, 2003

WATER EVENT INTENSITY SCALE Insights Insights Limitations Limitations • Identification of historic events and • Excessive quantitative focus – interactions – Water as the Driver of Water as the Driver of extrapolation of conclusions the Event the Event • Water-related Events ranked by • Focus not in Power relations INTENSITY and NATURE • Clear definition of conflict and cooperation – different levels of • Scale does not include Intra- Intensity national events • Visualisation of Trends Trends and Patterns Patterns • Analysis – Across riparian states • TFDD – All water treaties are • Analysis – Across the time coded at the same level of intensity • SCALE – Spectrum Spectrum of events ranked of cooperation by intensity (Wolf et., 2002)

BAR Scale – Nile Basin (1945-2004) Bar Scale Conflict/Cooperation on the Nile 7 N BI N B 1959 Agr eem ent f or Full 6 Utilization of the Nile End of Cold War Water s - Egypt/ S udan 5 Nile-TAC 4 Conver sion of the Cold War alignm ents in the Nile Nile-SEC Basin 3 OAU 2 1 0 194 194 194 194 194 194 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 197 197 197 197 197 197 197 197 197 197 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 200 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 -1 -2 Golf War -3 -4 S uez Ogaden War Cr isis -5 Assassination attem pt Isr ael attacks Nile of Pr esident Mubar ak -6 Egypt/Ethiopia in Addis Abeba water s in Egypt Ethiopia/Sudan -7 Nile Basin Dates Egypt/Sudan

BAR Scale – Nile Basin (1945-2004) Ethiopia-Egypt Bar Scale 7 1 959 Agreement for Full 6 N BI N BI End of Cold War Utilization of the Nile Waters - Egypt/Sudan Nile-TAC 5 Conversion of the Cold War alignments Nile-SEC in the Nile Basin 4 3 OAU 2 1 0 194 194 194 194 194 194 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 195 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 197 197 197 197 197 197 197 197 197 197 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 198 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 200 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 -1 Golf -2 War -3 -4 Ogaden Suez War Crisis -5 Assassination Israel ataca águas sttempt of Egypt/Ethiopia -6 do Nilo, no Egipto President M ubarak in Addis Abeba Ethiopia/Sudan -7 Nile Basin Dates Egypt/Sudan

NILE – Power relations Downstream • Egypt – the downstream Hegemon • “Stable Control” of Nile waters • Methods: hydraulic mission, securitisation, knowledge construction, sanctioned discourse, etc. • Accumulation of Power LEADERSHIP • Hegemony LEGITIMACY IDEAS CONSENT Gramsci, 1971 • Goal: Status quo

NILE – Power relations Upstream • Upstream – no mobilisation of resources • “Historical consent” to Hegemony � Ethiopia – “incapacity” � Sudan – “unwillingness” � White Nile – “wait-and-see” • Ethiopia – the “silent partner” in the Nile? From Consent Consent to Contest Contest

“When there is hegemony, there is always a “When there is hegemony, there is always a locus for counter- -hegemony” hegemony” locus for counter (Warner, 2000) “War of position” “War of position” (Gramsci, 1971)

ETHIOPIA – Challenges to Hegemony Inverted Triangle – How to challenge Hydro-Hegemony? Tactics Reactive and Active Diplomacy Desecuritisation Reinforced cooperation Financial mobilisation Political feasibility Knowledge/expertise construction Discourse alternatives Claim for legal principles Needs-approach Strategies Water infrastructures construction SH Economic and institutional development Social and political adaptive capacitie s SHARED CONTROL Goal

COUNTER-HEGEMONIC TACTICS • Political feasibility Political feasibility – central tactic • • Diplomacy Diplomacy – Letters of protest, participation in • conferences and forums, transnational lobby campaigns, grasp international support • Desecuritisation Desecuritisation – institutional arrangements, • capacity and confidence-building, changing perceptions, water regimes “Regimes begin at home” (Waterbury, 2002) “Regimes begin at home”

COUNTER-HEGEMONIC TACTICS • Reinforced Cooperation (NBI) Reinforced Cooperation (NBI) – constructive • shared control, win-win outcomes, “watchdog” to avoid domination • International International financial commitment – • financial commitment multilateral and regional banks, mix public- private, incremental mix, NBI • Knowledge/expertise Knowledge/expertise – improve expertise, • create knowledge, accurate information, dissemination, public debates (interests groups)

COUNTER-HEGEMONIC TACTICS • Discourse Discourse alternatives – deligitimise • alternatives “sanctioned discourse” and belief systems, emphasis on “new” knowledge, prevent areas of ignorance • Legal principles Legal principles – focus on “equitable use”, • refutation of 1959 Agreement, D3 Project • Rights approach Rights approach – move from a rights-based • perspective to needs-based approach (Wolf, 1999), clear definition of needs

CONCLUSION Challenge the status quo 90s – new context – Nile Basin Initiative Nile Basin Initiative Ongoing cooperation process Goal: Shared control Political momentum