New Developments in the Global Digital Economy Mauro F. Guilln The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mauro F. Guillén The Lauder Institute The Wharton School

New Developments in the Global Digital Economy

Which country successfully launched a probe into Mars orbit

• n the first attempt?

How much did it cost?

• $74 million.
• Interstellar: $165 million.
• The Martian: $108 million.

Which event is larger?

• Cyber Monday.
• Black Friday.
• Singles’ Day.

Gambling Revenue

• Vegas or Macau?
• Vegas: $7 billion.
• Macau: $33 billion.

By 2040, which will be the world’s largest middle-class market?

Source: Homi Kharas.

Shares of Global Middle-Class Consumption, 2000-2030

Shares of Global Middle-Class Consumption, 2000-2050

Source: Homi Kharas.

TREND #1: SOCIAL MEDIA USERS (% POPULATION) Source: We Are Social, 2018 Digital Yearbook.

WORLD’S LARGEST CITIES 1960

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision.

WORLD’S LARGEST CITIES 1970

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 Revision.

WORLD’S LARGEST CITIES 1990

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 Revision.

WORLD’S LARGEST CITIES 2014

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 Revision.

WORLD’S LARGEST CITIES 2030

TREND #2: AIRBNB DEMOGRAPHICS

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/technology

Wines

• What’s the difference between

grape juice and wine.

• Why is the standard wine bottle

750 ml?

• How do you make sparkling

wine?

• What’s the difference between?

– Champagne. – Cava. – Prosecco.

TREND #3: DIGITAL SALES OF WINES

Total value CAGR Value per Offtrade Offtrade Online Sales (% total offtrade volume) Country 2016 $bn 2011-16 Liter $ value $bn vol mn l 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

China

66.5 3.1 14.5 23.7 3,090.1

1.7 3.1 6.5 10.6 15.0 19.3 USA

44.0 2.1 13.9 24.2 2,670.6

1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 France

29.0 0.2 12.2 10.6 1,679.5

2.9 3.1 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.3 UK

20.2 0.1 14.9 12.4 1,124.3

6.7 6.8 6.8 8.1 10.1 10.3 Japan

19.4 1.2 21.9 6.7 567.0

2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 Italy

15.5 0.4 6.7 7.1 1,551.4

1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 Germany

14.5 0.0 7.2 6.8 1,657.1

2.2 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.3 Canada

9.5 3.5 16.6 6.8 484.7

0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Australia

6.8 3.2 11.8 3.5 459.9

6.0 7.0 8.0 9.5 10.5 11.3 Russia

5.5

• 5.5

6.1 5.1 872.9

0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Spain

5.2

• 0.6

5.4 1.6 465.9

1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 Switzerland

5.0 0.1 18.6 2.8 230.2

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 Austria

4.3 1.1 16.9 1.0 135.7

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 Brazil

4.0

• 0.4

11.7 2.5 254.9

1.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 Greece

3.4

• 4.7

11.7 1.0 153.9

• 0.1

Argentina

3.4 6.8 3.4 2.1 834.1

1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 Belgium

3.3 1.1 11.4 1.6 219.2

6.9 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.5 Sweden

3.2 3.0 14.3 2.2 202.7

1.4 1.8 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.7

LABELS VS. BRANDS

Trend #4: Sales of e-Books in the US.

http://newsroom.publishers.org/book-publishing-annual-statshot-survey-reveals-religious-crossover-and-inspirational-books-supported-trade-book-growth-in-2016/

TREND #5: REMMITANCES

Trend #6:

Largest Populations Age 15-35

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision.

2015 2030 2015=100 India 458.53 487.25 106.3 China 413.96 323.71 78.2 Indonesia 86.67 92.05 106.2 Nigeria 59.68 91.34 153.1 USA 87.94 89.33 101.6 Pakistan 68.40 82.90 121.2 Brazil 69.79 63.00 90.3 Bangladesh 59.30 60.88 102.7 Ethiopia 35.68 51.79 145.2 Mexico 43.35 45.53 105.0 Philippines 35.46 41.68 117.5 DR Congo 24.35 41.27 169.5 Egypt 32.16 37.92 117.9 Russia 39.77 30.98 77.9 Viet Nam 32.42 27.97 86.3 Turkey 25.60 25.86 101.0 Iran 30.89 23.79 77.0 Japan 26.48 22.89 86.4 South Africa 20.12 21.10 104.9 Thailand 18.92 17.05 90.1

TREND #7: POPULATION 60+ YEARS OF AGE

Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision.

2015 2030 2015=100 China 214.7 361.6 168.4 India 116.8 189.1 162.0 USA 65.8 91.7 139.5 Japan 42.0 45.2 107.7 Brazil 24.4 42.5 173.8 Indonesia 21.0 38.2 182.5 Russia 29.0 34.4 118.7 Germany 22.3 28.5 127.6 Bangladesh 11.4 21.7 190.6 Mexico 12.1 21.5 178.1 Italy 17.0 21.2 124.9 Pakistan 12.5 20.7 165.5 France 16.1 20.4 126.1 UK 15.4 20.0 129.8 Thailand 10.7 18.7 174.1 Viet Nam 9.6 18.6 193.5 South Korea 9.3 16.7 179.7 Spain 11.3 15.4 136.0 Turkey 9.0 15.0 167.4 Ukraine 10.0 10.8 107.9

CARING ROBOTS

TAKING CARE OF CHILDREN

TREND #8: Dating Services (million USD)

Source: Statista, eServices Report 2017.

• Entertainment.
• Health:

− Surgery. − Mobile health. − Psychological/Psychiatric therapies. − Stimulate motor functions. − Anxiety reduction in dentistry or MRIs. − Autism treatments.

• Product design: from automobiles to

buildings.

• Quality control of dangerous substances.
• Employee training.

TREND #9: VIRTUAL REALITY

• Internet of Things: Physical  Digital.
• Virtual reality: Digital  Physical.
• Early applications in:

− Transportation & delivery systems. − Autonomous vehicles. − Healthcare. − Telepresence.

• The idea is to:

− Make VR dynamic and adaptive. − Increase empathy.

TREND #10: INTERNET OF THINGS + VIRTUAL REALITY

TREND #11: 3D PRINTING

3D PRINTING’S IMPACT ON TRANSPORTATION

Source: http://www.strategyand.pwc.com/perspectives/2015-commercial-transportation-trends

• Manufacturing lead times reduced to

minutes.

• Shorter time to market for new

designs.

• More efficient use of materials,

including leftover substrate powder.

• Reduced inventories.

IMPACT OF 3D PRINTING ON THE SUPPLY CHAIN

• Stronger materials.
• Higher-strength composites.
• Sustainability through durability and

more energy efficiency.

• Nanomedicine: diagnostics and

treatment.

• Nanorobotics.
• Programmable matter.

TREND #12: NANOTECHNOLOGIES

OR THE MANIPULATION OF MATTER ON AN ATOMIC, MOLECULAR OR SUPRAMOLECULAR SCALE

Is the Global Digital Economy A Tsunami?

• No. It’s More

Like a Tornado!