Nederland, Colorado 2014 Housing Needs Assessment Primary Work - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Nederland, Colorado 2014 Housing Needs Assessment Primary Work - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 22, 2023 126 likes •458 views

Housing Needs Assessment Nederland, Colorado 2014 Housing Needs Assessment Primary Work Elements Analyzed more than 100 demographic & economic metrics Conducted nearly 30 community stakeholder interviews Completed a resident

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Nederland, Colorado

2014

Housing Needs Assessment

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Housing Needs Assessment

Primary Work Elements

  • Analyzed more than 100 demographic & economic metrics
  • Conducted nearly 30 community stakeholder interviews
  • Completed a resident survey of more than 200 residents
  • Surveyed 35 rental properties in Nederland (99 units)
  • Evaluated Nederland’s and Region’s for-sale housing data on 422 units

(85 available/337 sold)

  • Evaluated various “other housing factors” affecting the PSA housing

market (i.e. community services, crime, education, etc.)

  • Completed a housing gap analysis by tenure and affordability for

Nederland (PSA) and Region (SSA)

  • Identified vacant land and buildings as potential opportunities for

future residential development

  • Provided recommendations to address housing needs & establish

priorities

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Geographic Study Areas

Secondary Study Area: Region Primary Study Area: Region

Note: SSA includes PSA

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Demographic Highlights

Education Tenure Size Poverty

Educational Attainment (2013)

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% No High School Diploma High School Graduate Some College, No Degree Associate Degree Bachelor Degree Graduate Degree

Education Level Share PSA SSA Boulder County Colorado

Population by Poverty Status (2006-2010)

7.1% 9.0% 12.8% 12.2% 91.0% 87.2% 87.8% 92.9%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% PSA SSA Boulder County Colorado

Location Share Income at/above poverty Income below poverty

Households by Tenure (2013)

57.1% 74.2% 59.6% 62.4% 42.9% 25.8% 40.4% 37.6%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% PSA SSA Boulder County Colorado

Location Share Renter-Occupied Owner-Occupied

Persons per Renter Household (2013)

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 1-Person 2-Person 3-Person 4-Person 5-Person

Household Size Share PSA SSA Boulder County Colorado

Various Demographic Comparisons

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 PSA Population increased 2.9% from 2000 to 2010 (< SSA & County)  PSA Population growth projected at 7.5% from 2010 to 2018 (fastest

when compared with SSA and County)

 Largest share of PSA POP age 35 to 44 years  Smallest share of PSA POP age 65 to 74 & 75+ years  PSA greatest projected decline ages 35 to 44 years  PSA greatest projected growth ages 65-74 years and 75+ years  PSA median age (41 years) much higher than County (36.3 years) and

State (36.5 years)

Demographic Highlights

Population Trends

Population Trends

16.9% 9.2% 8.4% 2.9% 9.3% 7.1% 6.3% 7.5%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% PSA SSA Boulder County Colorado

Location Percent Change 2000-2010 2010-2018

Population by Age (2013)

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+

Age Range Share PSA SSA Boulder County Colorado

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Demographic Highlights

 PSA HHs grew 7.0% from 2000 to 2010 (slowest of the areas)  Faster projected PSA HH growth 8.3% from 2010 to 2018 (faster

growth than SSA and County)

 Largest share of HHs in PSA ages 35-44 and ages 45-54; smallest

among ages 65-74 and ages 75+

 Largest HH growth in PSA b/w 2013-18 ages 65-74 (31, 58.5%)  Largest HH decline in PSA b/w 2013-18 ages 35-44 (-45, -28.7%)

Household Trends

Household Trends

19.0% 12.0% 14.5% 7.0% 10.0% 7.9% 7.5% 8.3%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0%

PSA SSA Boulder County Colorado Location Percent Change 2000-2010 2010-2018

Household Heads by Age (2013)

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% <25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+

Age Range Share PSA SSA Boulder County Colorado

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Demographic Highlights

Household Income Trends

PSA has highest share of high-income ($100K+) HHs, but lowest share of moderate-income ($40k to $60k+) HHs in 2013 PSA has (2013) & will have (2018) the highest median HH income compared with other study areas

Households by Income (2013)

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% <$20K $20K - $40K $40K - $60K $60K - $100K $100K+

Household Income Share PSA SSA Boulder County Colorado

Median Household Income (2000-2018)

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 PSA SSA Boulder County Colorado

Location Median Income 2000 2010 2013 2018

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Demographic Highlights

  • Higher and increasing median age.
  • Lower share of younger residents (under age 25).
  • Faster growth rates among senior adult residents

ages 65 and older.

  • Smaller household sizes.
  • Higher share of one- and two-person households.
  • Lower share of large household formations (five-

person+).

  • Higher share of well-educated residents.
  • Lower share of residents living in poverty.
  • Higher share of households earning more than

$60,000 annually.

  • Higher overall median household income.

PSA AND SSA

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Demographic Highlights

Theme Maps

  • Pop. Age 20-34

Owner Share Renter Share

  • Pop. Age 55+
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Demographic Highlights

Theme Maps

Median Income

  • Pop. Density

Crime Index Drive Times

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Economic Highlights

  • Retail Trade (19.8%) and Accommodation & Food Service

(17.2%) represents largest shares of the PSA labor force.

  • From 2008 to 2010, Boulder County employment base

declined by 7,984 (4.7%)

  • County employment base has grown each of past 4 years
  • 2013 employment base surpassed pre-recession levels

Unemployment Rates Total Employment

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Housing Supply – Existing Challenges

Overcrowded and Cost-Burdened Housing

Share (0.8%) PSA

  • wner households live in
  • vercrowded* housing

similar to region & county

*More than one person per room

One-third of all PSA renter-households are cost burdened*

*Pay over 30% of income towards housing costs (29.0% of owner-households)

Renter-Occupied Housing by Percent

  • f Income Paid Towards Rent (2006-2010)

20.4% 19.5% 21.8% 32.7% 16.6% 20.1% 24.0% 15.0% 48.0% 55.9% 34.5% 55.5% 6.2% 4.5% 7.5% 17.7% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% PSA SSA Boulder County Colorado

Location Percent of Households <20% 20%-30% 30%+ Unknown Percent of Overcrowded Owner Households (2006-2010)

0.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7%

0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% PSA SSA Boulder County Colorado

Location Percent

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Housing Supply – Rental (Apartments)

Surveyed Rental Housing Inventory By Bedroom Type Bedrooms Units Vacant Occup. Rate Rent Range Average Rent Studio 12 100.0% $510-$610 $538 One-Bedroom 29 1 96.6% $400-$1,395 $783 Two-Bedroom 46 1 97.8% $400-$1,395 $944 Three-Bedroom 11 100.0% $610-$1,900 $1,255 Four-Bedroom 1 1 0.0% $2,500 $2,500 Totals 99 3 97.0%

  • Nederland Average Rent by Bedroom Type

$538 $783 $944 $1,255 $2,500

$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 Studio One-Br. Two-Br. Three-Br. Four-Br.

Bedroom Type Average Rent

Nederland Rental Units by Bedroom Type

1 12 29 11 46

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Studio One-Br. Two-Br. Three-Br. Four-Br.

Bedroom Type Number of Units

FEW VACANT OPTIONS: PSA has 3 vacancies MISMATCH: Majority of Supply not Affordable to Most Renters

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Housing Supply – Rental (Apartments)

Rental Housing Inventory By Year Built Year Built Units Vacant Occup. Rate Rent Range Pre-1970 32 2 93.7% $510-$1,750 1970-1979 30 100.0% $400-$1,100 1980-1989 29 100.0% $460-$1,900 1990-1999 6 1 83.4% $1,100-$2,500 2000-2009 2 100.0% N/A 2010-2014

  • Totals

99 3 97.0%

Nederland Rental Units by Year Built

2 6 29 30 32

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Pre-1970 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2014

Year Built Number of Units

MOSTLY OLDER PRODUCT: Nearly 2/3 of identified rentals were built prior to 1980; highest share built prior to 1970

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Housing Supply – Rental (Apartments)

Nederland, Colorado Surveyed Rental Housing Inventory By Quality Level Quality Level Units Vacant Occupancy Rate Rent Range A

  • B

18 100.0% $460-$1,900 C 58 3 94.8% $515-$2,500 D 23 100.0% $400-$850 F

  • Totals

99 3 97.0%

Nederland Rental Units by Quality Level

18 23 58

10 20 30 40 50 60 A B C D F

Quality Level Number of Units

LIMITED AMOUNT OF GOOD QUALITY PRODUCT: Half of the product “Fair” and one- fourth “Poor”

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Housing Supply – Rental (Apartments)

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Housing Gap Estimates - Rental

  • Methodology considered household growth, units for balanced market,

substandard housing, and demolitions; conducted by income level

  • Rental housing demand for at least 60 new PSA units by 2018
  • Note: Demand estimates represent potential units by 2018 (would

assume all product types, prices and locations developed)

2013 - 2018 Rental Demand Potential by Income Level & Rent Nederland, Colorado Primary Study Area Household Income Range Less Than $30,000 $30,000- $60,000 $60,000+ Rent Affordability Less Than $750 $750-$1,500 $1,500+ New Income-Qualified Renter Household

  • 14

20 27 Units Needed for Balanced Market 10 8 8 Total Replacement Housing Needed by 2018 176 62 3 Less Residential Units in the Development Pipeline Overall Region (SSA) Units of Potential Support by 2018 172 90 38 Total Units of Potential Support in Nederland (PSA) 26-34 14-18 6-8

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Housing Supply – For-sale (Historical)

For-Sale/Sold Housing Supply Type PSA Nederland SSA Region Available 13 85 Sold 108 337 Total 121 422

FOR-SALE HOUSING BY YEAR SOLD Year Sold PSA (Nederland) SSA (Region) Units Sold Change Median Price Change Units Sold Change Median Price Change 2010 23

  • $345,000
  • 58
  • $345,000
  • 2011

20

  • 13.0%

$253,550

  • 26.5%

66 13.8% $277,500

  • 19.6%

2012 29 45.0% $305,000 20.3% 83 25.8% $296,500 6.8% 2013 29 0.0% $310,500 1.8% 99 19.3% $315,000 6.2% 2014* 7

  • 75.9%

$331,000 6.6% 31

  • 68.7%

$321,500 2.1%

PSA & SSA median home prices have increased in each of the past three years.

*Through June 2014

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Housing Supply – For-sale (Historical)

  • Nearly 45% of homes sold since 2010 in PSA were built after 1990 (39.8%

in SSA)

  • One-fifth of homes sold since 2010 in PSA were built before 1960 (14.5%

in SSA)

Sales History by Year Built

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 1939 or earlier 1940 - 1950 1951 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 1980 1981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 to present

Year Built Share of Sales PSA SSA

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Housing Supply – For-sale (Historical)

  • The largest shares of housing sold by price point are at $350,000 and up
  • Very few homes sold that are priced under $250,000

Home Sales by Price

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% < $ 9 9 , 9 9 9 $ 1 K

  • $

1 2 4 , 9 9 9 $ 1 2 5 K

  • $

1 4 9 , 9 9 9 $ 1 5 K

  • $

1 7 4 , 9 9 9 $ 1 7 5 K

  • $

1 9 9 , 9 9 9 $ 2 K

  • $

2 2 4 , 9 9 9 $ 2 2 5 K

  • $

2 4 9 , 9 9 9 $ 2 5 K

  • $

2 7 4 , 9 9 9 $ 2 7 5 K

  • $

2 9 9 , 9 9 9 $ 3 K

  • $

3 2 4 , 9 9 9 $ 3 2 5 K

  • $

3 4 9 , 9 9 9 $ 3 5 K

  • $

3 7 4 , 9 9 9 $ 3 7 5 K

  • $

3 9 9 , 9 9 9 $ 4 , +

Price Range Share of Sales PSA SSA

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Housing Supply – For-sale (Historical)

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Housing Supply – For-sale (Available)

PSA – TOWN OF NEDERLAND Summary of Active For-Sale Housing Supply by Bedrooms (As of June 16, 2014) Homes Listed Avg. Baths Avg. Square Feet Avg. Year Built Price Range Median List Price Median Price

  • Sq. Ft.

Avg. Days on Market 3 1.0 888 1946 $245,900 - $350,000 $349,900 $394.03 109 8 2.5 2,418 1983 $149,900 - $429,000 $379,950 $157.13 183 1 2.0 2,334 1993 $412,000 $412,000 $176.52 42 1 2.0 2,400 1945 $335,000 $335,000 $139.58 11 13 2.0 2,057 1972 $149,900 - $429,000 $357,000 $173.55 142

Source: Multiple Listing Services, Boulder County Assessor’s Office, and Bowen National Research

LIMITED SUPPLY: Few For-sale Housing Options Available in PSA

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SSA - REGION Summary of Active For-Sale Housing Supply by Bedrooms (As of June 16, 2014) Bedrooms Homes Listed Avg. Baths Avg. Square Feet Avg. Year Built Price Range Median List Price Median Price

  • Sq. Ft.

Average Days on Market One-Br. 5 1.0 777 1940 $108,000-$429,000 $135,000 $173.75 39 Two-Br. 19 1.0 1,393 1957 $100,000-$393,750 $255,900 $183.70 68 Three-Br. 47 3.0 2,477 1985 $149,900-$699,000 $389,000 $157.04 76 Four-Br. 11 3.0 2,927 1988 $275,000-$550,000 $424,500 $145.03 45 Five-Br. 3 3.0 3,367 1983 $299,900-$690,000 $335,000 $99.50 295 Total 85 2.0 2,224 1976 $100,000-$699,000 $350,000 $157.37 76

Source: Multiple Listing Services, Boulder County Assessor’s Office, and Bowen National Research

Housing Supply – For-sale (Available)

MISMATCH: Majority

  • f Supply not

Affordable to Most PSA Residents

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Housing Supply – For-sale (Available)

Active For-Sale Housing by Price

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% < $ 9 9 , 9 9 9 $ 1 K

  • $

1 2 4 , 9 9 9 $ 1 2 5 K

  • $

1 4 9 , 9 9 9 $ 1 5 K

  • $

1 7 4 , 9 9 9 $ 1 7 5 K

  • $

1 9 9 , 9 9 9 $ 2 K

  • $

2 2 4 , 9 9 9 $ 2 2 5 K

  • $

2 4 9 , 9 9 9 $ 2 5 K

  • $

2 7 4 , 9 9 9 $ 2 7 5 K

  • $

2 9 9 , 9 9 9 $ 3 K

  • $

3 2 4 , 9 9 9 $ 3 2 5 K

  • $

3 4 9 , 9 9 9 $ 3 5 K

  • $

3 7 4 , 9 9 9 $ 3 7 5 K

  • $

3 9 9 , 9 9 9 $ 4 , +

Price Range Share of Homes PSA SSA

Virtually no product available for purchase priced under $325,000 in PSA (Nederland) & few affordable options in the entire SSA (Region)

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Housing Supply – For-sale (Available)

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Housing Gap Estimates – For-Sale

  • Methodology considered HH growth, units for balanced market,

substandard housing, and demolitions; conducted by income level

  • Overall housing demand for up to 49 new units by 2018
  • Note: Demand estimates represent potential units by 2018 (would

assume all product types, prices and locations developed)

2013-2018 For-Sale Housing Demand by Income Level & Price Point Nederland, Colorado Primary Study Area Household Income Range < $30,000 $30,000- $59,999 $60,000- $99,999 $100,000 + Housing Price Affordability < $100,000 $100,000- $200,000 $200,000- $300,000 $300,000 + New Owner-Occupied Household Growth 42 36 37 49 Housing Units Needed for Balanced Market 20 30 24

  • 3

Total Replacement Housing Needed by 2018 10 6 Less Product in Development Pipeline Overall Market (SSA) Units of Potential Support 72 72 61 46 Total Units of Potential Support in Nederland 11-14 11-14 9-12 7-9

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  • Identified 49 available properties that represent potential

sites for residential development in the Nederland

– 4,900,000 square feet (113 acres) of land and 28,700

square feet of existing structures

– Likely buildable space has an estimated capacity to

develop approximately 138 residential units vs. need of 109 residential units

  • Limited base of available land and buildings in PSA

requires town to be selective in housing products, physical locations and project sizes

Housing Development Opportunities/Capacity

Nederland‘s Residential Development Capacity

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Housing Development Opportunities/Locations

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Conclusions

Nederland Primary Housing Challenges

  • Rapidly increasing base of seniors and empty nesters who will

require housing to meet their specific needs

  • Few available housing options for current & potential residents,

forcing people into housing they don’t want or can’t afford

  • Lack of housing is a likely contributing factor to loss of younger

residents (<age 25)

  • With limited new product added to market in recent years, existing

supply is aging and will need to be maintained and/or improved

  • Lack of currently available and buildable sites (vacant land and

existing buildings) may pose an issue if demographic growth projections materialize

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Recommendations

Nederland Housing Strategies

  • Remove/Reduce Substandard Housing From Market
  • Support Efforts to Renovate, Repair and Maintain Existing Housing
  • Support the Development of Affordable & Moderately-priced Housing
  • Support/Expand First-Time and Lower-income Homebuyer Programs
  • Attract/Encourage Private-Sector Residential Development/Investment
  • Monitor potential conversion of housing to marijuana grow houses
  • Encourage/Support Adaptive Reuse of Vacant Structures
  • Develop plan to expand space to accommodate future housing
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Recommendations

Nederland Housing Product Considerations

  • Expand Senior housing product to meet growing base of older adult

households, particularly lower-income elderly households with less than $30k annual income; Senior housing needs could be met through adaptive reuse of existing structures and newly-built cottage-style units, with a balanced mix of one- and two-bedroom units

  • Affordability (via subsidies, tax credits, etc.) remains an important

factor for a majority of housing – rents & housing prices need to be kept affordable to households with incomes below $30,000.

  • Housing to accommodate 1-and 2-person smaller household sizes,

including housing for young adult/professionals

  • Expand base of for-sale product priced below $200,000 to retain and

attract moderate income households, particularly with incomes between $30k & $60k

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Contact Information Patrick M. Bowen Bowen National Research 155 E. Columbus St., Suite 220 Pickerington, Ohio 43147 Phone: 614-833-9300 E-Mail: patrickb@bowennational.com