Near-term GDP forecast Sept 2004(actual): 0.6% (Dec MPS 1.0) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Near-term GDP forecast Sept 2004(actual): 0.6% (Dec MPS 1.0) December 2004: 1.1% (Dec MPS 1.0) March 2005: 1.0% (Dec MPS 0.5) June 2005: 0.7% (Dec MPS 0.4) 6/2/2015 Nearterm GDP slides.ppt 1 Ref #6094147 1.0

December 2004 GDP highlights • Weak agriculture – poor weather (timing) • Strong construction • Electricity -9.0% (timing) • Manufacturing ? • Retail - weak • Services strong – and upside risk • Exports bounce-back (timing) 6/2/2015 Nearterm GDP slides.ppt 2 Ref #6094147 1.0

Table 2.2.1: Indicators for 04Q4 and 05Q1 production GDP Dec-04 Mar-05 1. Components forecast 1.0 1.0 Indicator models (variables used) 2. Exports, hours paid, milkfat, retail, capacity utilisation 2.0 3. Confidence, milkfat, cement, slaughter 0.9 4. House prices and real exchange rate 1.2 1.1 5. Hours worked/paid 1.4 6. QSBO domestic trading activity 0.9 7. Westpac consumer confidence 1.4 8 Capacity Utilisation 1.8 0.8 9. Colmar Brunton 1.2 1.4 10. NBBO own activity 1.1 1.2 11. QSBO activity indicators 1.1 Simple average 1.3 1.1 Median forecast 1.2 1.1 Actual forecast selected 1.1 1.0 September MPS 1.0 0.5 December MPS 6/2/2015 Nearterm GDP slides.ppt 3 Ref #6094147 1.0

March 2005 GDP highlights • Indicator average 1.1% • Strong agriculture expected • Very strong employment data • Construction, electricity to bounce- back • BIC contacts suggest ongoing strength • Strong EFTPOS data 6/2/2015 Nearterm GDP slides.ppt 4 Ref #6094147 1.0

Near-term GDP forecast Sept 2004(actual): 0.6% (Dec MPS 1.0) December 2004: 1.1% (Dec MPS 1.0) March 2005: 1.0% (Dec MPS 0.5) June 2005: 0.7% (Dec MPS 0.4) 6/2/2015 Nearterm GDP slides.ppt 5 Ref #6094147 1.0

Figure 2.2.14: Output gap % % 3 0.8 0.6 2 0.5 1 0.3 0 0.2 0.0 -1 -0.1 -2 -0.3 -3 -0.4 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Output gap (Dec MPS projection) Output gap (current projection) 6/2/2015 Nearterm GDP slides.ppt 6 Difference (current less Dec MPS) (RHS) Ref #6094147 1.0

2.2.15: Capacity Utilisation 2.2.16: Diff finding skilled labour % % % % 95 95 65 65 Dec MPS Dec MPS 93 93 52 52 91 91 39 39 89 89 26 26 87 87 13 13 85 85 83 83 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 C apacity utilisation D ifficulty finding skilled labour 2.2.17: Diff finding unskilled labour 2.2.18: Unemployment % % % % 45 45 7 7 Dec MPS Dec MPS 40 40 6 6 35 35 30 30 5 5 25 25 5 5 20 20 15 15 4 4 10 10 4 4 5 5 0 0 3 3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 6/2/2015 Nearterm GDP slides.ppt 7 D ifficulty finding unskilled labour U nem ploym ent rate Ref #6094147 1.0