Near-term GDP forecast Sept 2004(actual): 0.6% (Dec MPS 1.0) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Near-term GDP forecast Sept 2004(actual): 0.6% (Dec MPS 1.0) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 17, 2023 309 likes •397 views

Near-term GDP forecast Sept 2004(actual): 0.6% (Dec MPS 1.0) December 2004: 1.1% (Dec MPS 1.0) March 2005: 1.0% (Dec MPS 0.5) June 2005: 0.7% (Dec MPS 0.4) 6/2/2015 Nearterm GDP slides.ppt 1 Ref #6094147 1.0 December 2004 GDP highlights

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SLIDE 1

Nearterm GDP slides.ppt Ref #6094147 1.0 1

Near-term GDP forecast

Sept 2004(actual): 0.6% (Dec MPS 1.0) December 2004: 1.1% (Dec MPS 1.0) March 2005: 1.0% (Dec MPS 0.5) June 2005: 0.7% (Dec MPS 0.4)

6/2/2015

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SLIDE 2

Nearterm GDP slides.ppt Ref #6094147 1.0 2

December 2004 GDP highlights

  • Weak agriculture – poor weather (timing)
  • Strong construction
  • Electricity -9.0% (timing)
  • Manufacturing ?
  • Retail - weak
  • Services strong – and upside risk
  • Exports bounce-back (timing)

6/2/2015

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SLIDE 3

Nearterm GDP slides.ppt Ref #6094147 1.0 3

Dec-04 Mar-05

  • 1. Components forecast

1.0 1.0 Indicator models (variables used)

  • 2. Exports, hours paid, milkfat, retail, capacity utilisation

2.0

  • 3. Confidence, milkfat, cement, slaughter

0.9

  • 4. House prices and real exchange rate

1.2 1.1

  • 5. Hours worked/paid

1.4

  • 6. QSBO domestic trading activity

0.9

  • 7. Westpac consumer confidence

1.4 8 Capacity Utilisation 1.8 0.8

  • 9. Colmar Brunton

1.2 1.4

  • 10. NBBO own activity

1.1 1.2

  • 11. QSBO activity indicators

1.1 Simple average 1.3 1.1 Median forecast 1.2 1.1 Actual forecast selected September MPS 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.5

Table 2.2.1: Indicators for 04Q4 and 05Q1 production GDP

December MPS

6/2/2015

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SLIDE 4

Nearterm GDP slides.ppt Ref #6094147 1.0 4

March 2005 GDP highlights

  • Indicator average 1.1%
  • Strong agriculture expected
  • Very strong employment data
  • Construction, electricity to bounce-

back

  • BIC contacts suggest ongoing strength
  • Strong EFTPOS data

6/2/2015

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SLIDE 5

Nearterm GDP slides.ppt Ref #6094147 1.0 5

Near-term GDP forecast

Sept 2004(actual): 0.6% (Dec MPS 1.0) December 2004: 1.1% (Dec MPS 1.0) March 2005: 1.0% (Dec MPS 0.5) June 2005: 0.7% (Dec MPS 0.4)

6/2/2015

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SLIDE 6

Nearterm GDP slides.ppt Ref #6094147 1.0 6

Figure 2.2.14: Output gap

2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 3 2 1

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3

0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0

  • 0.1
  • 0.3
  • 0.4

% % Output gap (Dec MPS projection) Output gap (current projection) Difference (current less Dec MPS) (RHS)

6/2/2015

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SLIDE 7

Nearterm GDP slides.ppt Ref #6094147 1.0 7

2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 95 93 91 89 87 85 83 95 93 91 89 87 85 83 % %

Dec MPS

C apacity utilisation 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 65 52 39 26 13 65 52 39 26 13 % %

Dec MPS

D ifficulty finding skilled labour 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 % %

Dec MPS

D ifficulty finding unskilled labour 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 % %

Dec MPS

U nem ploym ent rate

2.2.15: Capacity Utilisation 2.2.16: Diff finding skilled labour 2.2.17: Diff finding unskilled labour 2.2.18: Unemployment

6/2/2015