NDPA Overview Slides Justin J Kringstad Geological Engineer - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NDPA Overview Slides Justin J Kringstad Geological Engineer Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority September 4, 2020

Bakken & Three Forks Formations Bakken Formation Three Forks Formation 2 2 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Monthly Oil & Gas Production Change 3 3 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Holding Aug. 2020 Oil Constant at 1.23MMBPD (est.) Answering the question, “How many well completions to hold oil production flat?” Above Curve: Oil Production Increasing Below Curve: Oil Production Dropping 4 4 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Base Decline Challenges 5 5 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

March to June 75+% M-O-M Oil Drop 6 (Non-Confidential Wells Only) 6 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

May & June Comparison May 2020 June 2020 7 (Non-Confidential Wells Only) 7 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Vintage Year of Shut-In Wells – June 2020 8 (Non-Confidential Wells Only) 8 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Wells Most Likely to Return Quickly? (May) Shut-In 1,881 Wells (28%) WOR: 2 or Lower BOPD: 50+ Total: 356,816 BOPD (70+%) 9 9 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

GOR Decrease From Returning Curtailed Wells Well Selection Criteria Production Days in May: 0-1 Days March Oil Production: >1 BOPD June Oil Production: >1 BOPD Pool: Bakken/Three Forks/Sanish 10 (Non-Confidential Wells Only) 10 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

EIA Price Deck (Near Term) 11 11 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Shut-In Assumptions: EIA Price Deck 12 12 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

ND Oil Production: EIA Price Deck (Near Term) 13 13 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

ND Completions: EIA Price Deck (Near Term) Base & High Cases Low Case 14 14 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

ND Oil Production: EIA Price Deck 15 15 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Monthly Completion Scenarios: Crude Oil 16 16 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Monthly Completion Scenarios: Wellhead Gas 17 17 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

19 19

Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD Showing DAPL Outage Unlikely Near Term Scenario with Recent Court Decisions 21 21 21 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

NDPA Production Forecast and Rail Transportation NDPA Base Case Oil Production Forecast (Green) Assumes DAPL Returns to Service Sep 2021 Pipeline Capacity Shortfall (Grey): “Need” to Rail Rail History (Red): Exceeds “Need” - Delta Considered “Elective/Market Driven” 22 22 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation 23 23 23 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes 24 24 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Rail Destinations Market Share (May 2020) Data for Rail Destination Market Share Provided by the US Energy Information Administration 25 25 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

26 26

Natural Gas Update Production Gathering Processing Transmission • Technology • Capacity • Capacity • Dry Gas • Markets • Connections • Location • Natural Gas Liquids 27 27 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

ND Gas Production: EIA Price Deck 28 28 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Natural Gas Update Production Gathering Processing Transmission • Technology • Capacity • Capacity • Dry Gas • Markets • Connections • Location • Natural Gas Liquids 29 29 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Solving the Flaring Challenge 30 30 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Natural Gas Update Production Gathering Processing Transmission • Technology • Capacity • Capacity • Dry Gas • Markets • Connections • Location • Natural Gas Liquids 31 31 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Solving the Flaring Challenge Assumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included 32 32 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Solving the Flaring Challenge Assumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included 33 33 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Gas Processing Capacity & Future Outlook Assumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included Historical Expected Historical Expected 34 34 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity Historical Expected 35 35 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity Historical Expected 9% 24% 36 36 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity Historical Expected 9% 37 37 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Natural Gas Update Production Gathering Processing Transmission • Technology • Capacity • Capacity • Dry Gas • Markets • Connections • Location • Natural Gas Liquids 38 38 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Major Gas Pipeline and Processing Infrastructure Whiting WBI Transmission 39 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Bakken Natural Gas Infrastructure 40 40 40 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Northern Border Pipeline 41 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority *Data Source: Northern Border

Northern Border BTU at Glen Ullin, ND 42 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority *Data Source: Northern Border

NB Pipeline Interconnects With Known BTU Limits Guardian: 1,100 Vector: 1,100 NGPL: 1,065 Midwestern: 1,100 43 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

NB Pipeline Interconnects With BTU Limits > 1,100 NNG: No Limit ANR: 1,200 44 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

NB Pipeline Interconnects With Ability to Add Limits Horizon: Ability to Post Upper Limit 45 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Northern Border – BTU Calculations* 46 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority *Includes Updated Tariff Timeline to 1,100

Northern Border – BTU Calculations* Est. Annual Does Not Include Market Based Pairing Expenses *Assumes Equivalent Net Replacement of 1,035 Canadian Gas 47 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

BTU Calculations to Meet Proposed 1,100 BTU Spec. Approximate Q1-20 BTU Breakdown Demo Pairing Exercise to Meet 1,100 or Less* *Exact plant specifications are not publicly available and many assumptions needed to be made for demo pairing. Table may contain errors. 48 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Regional NGL Infrastructure Kinder Marathon Petroleum 49 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

NGL Pipeline Takeaway Options 50 50 50 50 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority

Contact Information Justin J. Kringstad, Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority 600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405 Bismarck, ND 58505-0840 Phone: (701)220-6227 Fax: (701)328-2820 E-mail: jjkringstad@ndpipelines.com Websites: www.pipeline.nd.gov www.northdakotapipelines.com 51 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority