NDPA Overview Slides Justin J Kringstad Geological Engineer - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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NDPA Overview Slides Justin J Kringstad Geological Engineer - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Dec 06, 2022 155 likes •679 views

NDPA Overview Slides Justin J Kringstad Geological Engineer Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority September 4, 2020 Bakken & Three Forks Formations Bakken Formation Three Forks Formation 2 2 JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline

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NDPA Overview Slides

September 4, 2020

Justin J Kringstad

Geological Engineer Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority

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Bakken & Three Forks Formations

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 2 Bakken Formation Three Forks Formation

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Monthly Oil & Gas Production Change

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Holding Aug. 2020 Oil Constant at 1.23MMBPD (est.)

Answering the question, “How many well completions to hold oil production flat?”

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Below Curve: Oil Production Dropping Above Curve: Oil Production Increasing

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Base Decline Challenges

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March to June 75+% M-O-M Oil Drop

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(Non-Confidential Wells Only)

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(Non-Confidential Wells Only)

May & June Comparison

June 2020 May 2020

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Vintage Year of Shut-In Wells – June 2020

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(Non-Confidential Wells Only)

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Wells Most Likely to Return Quickly? (May)

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1,881 Wells (28%) WOR: 2 or Lower BOPD: 50+ Total: 356,816 BOPD (70+%)

Shut-In

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GOR Decrease From Returning Curtailed Wells

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(Non-Confidential Wells Only)

Well Selection Criteria Production Days in May: 0-1 Days March Oil Production: >1 BOPD June Oil Production: >1 BOPD Pool: Bakken/Three Forks/Sanish

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EIA Price Deck (Near Term)

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Shut-In Assumptions: EIA Price Deck

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ND Oil Production: EIA Price Deck (Near Term)

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ND Completions: EIA Price Deck (Near Term)

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Base & High Cases Low Case

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ND Oil Production: EIA Price Deck

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Monthly Completion Scenarios: Crude Oil

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Monthly Completion Scenarios: Wellhead Gas

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Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD

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Showing DAPL Outage Unlikely Near Term Scenario with Recent Court Decisions

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NDPA Production Forecast and Rail Transportation

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NDPA Base Case Oil Production Forecast (Green) Pipeline Capacity Shortfall (Grey): “Need” to Rail Rail History (Red): Exceeds “Need” - Delta Considered “Elective/Market Driven” Assumes DAPL Returns to Service Sep 2021

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Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation

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Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes

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Rail Destinations Market Share (May 2020)

25 Data for Rail Destination Market Share Provided by the US Energy Information Administration JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 25

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Natural Gas Update

Production

  • Technology
  • Markets

Gathering

  • Capacity
  • Connections

Processing

  • Capacity
  • Location

Transmission

  • Dry Gas
  • Natural Gas

Liquids

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ND Gas Production: EIA Price Deck

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Natural Gas Update

Production

  • Technology
  • Markets

Gathering

  • Capacity
  • Connections

Processing

  • Capacity
  • Location

Transmission

  • Dry Gas
  • Natural Gas

Liquids

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Solving the Flaring Challenge

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Natural Gas Update

Production

  • Technology
  • Markets

Gathering

  • Capacity
  • Connections

Processing

  • Capacity
  • Location

Transmission

  • Dry Gas
  • Natural Gas

Liquids

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Solving the Flaring Challenge

Assumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included

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Solving the Flaring Challenge

Assumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included

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Gas Processing Capacity & Future Outlook

Assumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included

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Historical Historical Expected Expected

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Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity

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Historical Expected

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Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity

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Historical Expected 9% 24%

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Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity

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Historical Expected 9%

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Natural Gas Update

Production

  • Technology
  • Markets

Gathering

  • Capacity
  • Connections

Processing

  • Capacity
  • Location

Transmission

  • Dry Gas
  • Natural Gas

Liquids

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Major Gas Pipeline and Processing Infrastructure

WBI Transmission Whiting

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Bakken Natural Gas Infrastructure

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Northern Border Pipeline

*Data Source: Northern Border

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Northern Border BTU at Glen Ullin, ND

JJ Kringstad - North Dakota Pipeline Authority 42 *Data Source: Northern Border

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NB Pipeline Interconnects With Known BTU Limits

NGPL: 1,065 Midwestern: 1,100 Vector: 1,100 Guardian: 1,100

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NB Pipeline Interconnects With BTU Limits > 1,100

NNG: No Limit ANR: 1,200

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NB Pipeline Interconnects With Ability to Add Limits

Horizon: Ability to Post Upper Limit

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Northern Border – BTU Calculations*

*Includes Updated Tariff Timeline to 1,100

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Northern Border – BTU Calculations*

*Assumes Equivalent Net Replacement of 1,035 Canadian Gas

Does Not Include Market Based Pairing Expenses

  • Est. Annual
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BTU Calculations to Meet Proposed 1,100 BTU Spec.

Approximate Q1-20 BTU Breakdown Demo Pairing Exercise to Meet 1,100 or Less*

*Exact plant specifications are not publicly available and many assumptions needed to be made for demo pairing. Table may contain errors.

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Regional NGL Infrastructure

Kinder

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Marathon Petroleum

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NGL Pipeline Takeaway Options

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Justin J. Kringstad, Director North Dakota Pipeline Authority 600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405 Bismarck, ND 58505-0840 Phone: (701)220-6227 Fax: (701)328-2820 E-mail: jjkringstad@ndpipelines.com Websites: www.pipeline.nd.gov www.northdakotapipelines.com

Contact Information

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