NAUTICAL RISK INDEX Results Baltic Case study 30 October 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NAUTICAL RISK INDEX

Results Baltic Case study

30 October 2018 Yvonne Koldenhof (y.koldenhof@marin.nl)

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DEVELOPMENT NAUTICAL RISK INDEX

Start: SAMSON: Safety Assessment Model for Shipping and Offshore on the North sea (can also be used on other places….)

 Important part of safety assessment model is the traffic database/model  SAMSON route network consisting of waypoint and links with lateral distribution and shipping intensity  First based on experts and traffic databases from e.g. Lloyds  Later – now this database can also be built up using AIS-data

Introduction AIS

 analysis of the data like density charts, shipping intensities and encounters (near- misses)

Combine safety assessment model and AIS-data 

Nautical Risk Index

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NAUTICAL RISK INDEX; DEFINITION

Risk index: calculated value for each individual ship indicating the average risk of the ship at that moment. Risk = Probability * Consequences Probability  expected probability of an accident when a ship will be present at the given location (AIS) taking into account different given factors; Consequences  expected consequences given an accident (in this case the expect amount of oil (or chemical) spill);

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GENERAL IDEA NAUTICAL RISK INDEX (SAMSON)

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Area layout & traffic intensity; Accident frequency models Number of exposures (possible dangerous situations) Navigational aids & measures (pilot, tug, VTS, etc.) Accident statistics; Lloyd’s accident database 1990 - 2015 Number of expected accidents

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RISK INDEX: FREQUENCY MODEL

• EXP

: Exposure for a certain accident type (i), e.g. encounter

• CASRAT

: Casualty (accident) rate for a certain accident type (i) for a certain type of ship and ship size

• Fflag

= multiplication factor for flag state (Port State Control List)

• Fage

= multiplication factor for age of the ship

• Fwind = multiplication factor for wind
• Fvis

= multiplication factor for visibility

• Fnav

= multiplication factor for navigational status

Paccident(i) = EXP(i) * CASRAT(i, type, size) Paccident(i) = Fflag * Fage * Fwind * Fvis * Fnav * EXP(i) * CASRAT(i, type, size)

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STUDY AREA

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DENSITY MAPS

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TRACKS

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PROCESS BALTIC CASE STUDY: GROUNDING LINES

KAART VERVANGEN

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GRID-SIZE

10x10km 5x5km 2x2km

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GULF OF FINLAND – SHIP-SHIP COLLISION

Helsinki Tallinn

• St. Petersburg

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GULF OF FINLAND – SHIP-SHIP COLLISION

Ferry / Passenger Tanker

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GULF OF FINLAND – COMPARISON WITH REAL ACCIDENTS

Helsinki Tallinn

• St. Petersburg

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GULF OF FINLAND – DRIFTING FREQUENCIES

Helsinki Tallinn

• St. Petersburg

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SOUTH-WEST PART – SHIP-SHIP COLLISION

Gdynia Gdansk Malmo Rostock Klaipeda Gotland

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SOUTH-WEST AREA – SHIP-SHIP COLLISION

Ferry / Passenger Tanker

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SOUTH-WEST AREA – COMPARISON WITH ACCIDENTS

Gdynia Gdansk Malmo Rostock Klaipeda Gotland

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FOLLOW THE TRACK OF A VESSEL

Collision frequency

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CONCLUSIONS

• The Nautical Risk Index can be used in the Baltic Sea area
• An approach using AIS and a “real-time” risk calculation can

provided insight in the present situation, but also provide insight in certain “hot-spots” and the change of risk in an area over time.

• The “model” is still (and will always be) a “living”

model/approach, depending on the available data or depending

• n the purpose, level of detail necessary…

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