Nationalism Lecture 11: Ethnic Conflict Prof. Lars-Erik Cederman - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nationalism

Lecture 11: Ethnic Conflict

• Prof. Lars-Erik Cederman

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) Seilergraben 49, Room G.2 lcederman@ethz.ch http://www.icr.ethz.ch/teaching/nationalism Assistant: Kimberly Sims, CIS, Room E 3, k-sims@northwestern.edu

Ethnic Conflict

• Definitions
• Competing explanations
• Empirical cases
• How to stop ethnic conflict?

Definitions

• Ethnic conflict = conflict targeting members
• f ethnic group(s) because of their ethnicity
• Ethno-nationalist violence is a subtype of

the above:

– The struggle is over state control or boundaries and involves at least one nationalist movement – Conflict involves violent acts

Definitions II

• Spectrum of inter-ethnic relations

– Inter-ethnic trust – Inter-ethnic mistrust (discrimination, assimilation, induced migration) – Sporadic acts of violence – Mass killing – Genocide

Definitions III

• Genocide = deliberate attempt to destroy an

entire ethnic group

• Ethnocide = deliberate attempt to destroy an

ethnic identity (e.g. through genocide)

• Ethnic cleansing = deliberate attempt to

remove from a certain territory an “undesirable” ethnic group through deportation and/or systematic killings

Competing explanations

• “Ancient hatred”
• “Security dilemma”
• Constructivist explanations

– Fixed state borders: “Scapegoat hypothesis” – Changing state and national boundaries

“Ancient hatred”

• Derived from essentialist theories
• Old ethnic communities, old conflicts
• Emerges due to state collapse
• Culture of aggression (e.g. Balkan

“personality”)

“Security dilemma”

• Constructivist / rationalist perspective

based on Hobbesian principles

• Emerging anarchy after state collapse

(Posen): collective-choice dilemma due to mistrust

• Does not assume ancient hatred,

instead situational violence

• Ex. Ignatieff, Posen, Fearon

A game-theoretic illustration

Security Dilemma: Prisoner’s Dilemma don’t kill kill don’t kill kill 2,2 1,4 4,1 3,3 Ancient Hatred: Deadlock Game don’t kill kill don’t kill kill 3,3 1,4 4,1 2,2 Nash Equilibrium

Graphic illustrations of the 3 perspectives

Ancient Hatred Construc- tivism

trust mistrust hatred war time trust mistrust hatred war time anarchy hierarchy indepen- dence A B A B

?

inter-ethnic relations inter-ethnic relations trust mistrust hatred war inter-ethnic relations time anarchy hierarchy indepen- dence A B trust mistrust hatred war time indepen- dence A B A' 2 3 1 4 nationalization campaign inter-ethnic relations

Puzzle Security Dilemma

Toward a constructivist explanation

• Ethno-nationalist violence modern
• Critique of security dilemma account:

– actor reification: essentialism – actor unity: group cohesion – actor types: where’s the state?

• Need a theory of identity formation, especially

how state policies trigger conflict

• See Gagnon’s “scapegoat theory”

Mann’s macro-sociological theory

• f ethnic cleansing
• Draws on Gellner’s modernism
• Large-scale ethnic cleansing involves modern

states and nations for mobilization and infra- structure

• Threatened rather than collapsed states
• Elites and polarized populations
• Nationalizing states in Central and Eastern

Europe, and post-colonial states

Weiner’s “Macedonian syndrome”

• Focus on boundaries
• Actor types

– national minority (shared ethnic group) – nationalizing state – external national homeland (also nationalizing)

• Irredentist tensions radicalize societies
• Conflict spreads across borders

Yugoslavia before ethnic cleansing

Bosnia’s new borders (see white line)

Rwandan case

• History: Tutsi kingdom
• Germans arrive in 1897
• Belgians take over after WWI and favor

the Tutsi

• Ethnic riots in 1959
• Independence in 1962
• Rwanda “model LDC” but violence

under surface

Rwanda

Toward the genocide

• Economic decline and social conflict in

1980s

• In 1990, exile Tutsi troops try to invade

from Uganda

• Peace agreement signed in August

1993

• Preparations for genocide

The Rwandan genocide

• In April 1994, Hutu President

Habyarimana’s plane is shot down

• Hutu extremists exploit the incident
• Mass killings of Tutsi leaders start

immediately: about 800k dead, 130k survive

• Western world passive, except France

which helps the government

Policy solutions

• Essentialists

– Inaction – Partition – Conflict management – Confidence building

• Constructivists

– Democratization – Intervention – Sanctions – Minority rights – Education