Name of the principal investigator : Prof A. D. Rao, CAS, IIT Delhi - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Title of Project : Computation of maximum possible storm surges generated by tropical cyclones along the Indian coast Name of the principal investigator : Prof A. D. Rao, CAS, IIT Delhi Duration of the project : 9 months Commencement of the

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Title of Project : Computation of maximum possible storm surges generated by tropical cyclones along the Indian coast Name of the principal investigator : Prof A. D. Rao, CAS, IIT Delhi Duration of the project : 9 months Commencement of the project : December 2015

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Project Plan

A. Phase1 (3 months) Using ADCIRC model, the probable maximum water level elevations generated by any tropical cyclones crossing maritime states of Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Gujarat will be computed at the required horizontal resolution along the coast. These projections include present (no climate change scenario) and two other scenarios based on climate change at different return periods on 10, 50 and 100years.

B. Phase2 (3 months)

Using ADCIRC model, the probable maximum water level elevations generated by any tropical cyclones crossing maritime states of Andhra, Odisha and West Bengal will be computed at the required horizontal resolution along the coast. These projections include present (no climate change scenario) and two other scenarios based on climate change at different return periods on 10, 50 and 100years.

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C. Phase3 (3months)

Using ADCIRC model, the probable maximum water level elevations generated by any tropical cyclones crossing maritime states of Tamil Nadu, A&N and Lakshadweep will be computed at the required horizontal resolution along the coast. These projections include present (no climate change scenario) and two other scenarios based on climate change at different return periods on 10, 50 and 100 years.

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Sl. no. Return period No climate change scenario Most likely climate scenario Extreme climate scenario 1 10 years Normal winds 7% increase in wind speed 11% increase in wind speed 2 50 years Normal winds 7% increase in wind speed 11% increase in wind speed 3 100 years Normal winds 7% increase in wind speed 11% increase in wind speed

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S. No

Return period (years) Pressure-drop ΔP(mb) Kerala Karnataka Maharashtra Gujarat 1. 10 5 8 8 12 2. 50 12 15 15 40 3. 100 29 29 37 66

Values of pressure-drop by return period for the west and east coasts of India including Andaman & Nicobar

S.No Return periods (years) Pressure-drop ΔP(mb) West Bengal Odisha Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Andaman & Nicobar 1. 10 25 45 48 26 5 2. 50 51 78 70 47 8 3. 100 75 98 82 66 10

Pressure drop for Lakshadweep is considered as 10mb

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Maritime state Location Maximum surge range (m) Gujarat 22.2479,72.8982 (Gulf of Khambhat region) 3.2 - 8.5 Maharashtra 20.0837, 72.7055 ( near Gholvad) 1.2 - 3.2 Karnataka 13.3764,74.675 (near Malpe beach) 0.4 – 2.0 Kerala 12.0237,75.1998 (near Ettikulam) 0.1 - 1.8 Andhra Pradesh 15.7924,80.8132 (Krishna basin) 3.0 – 5.7 Odisha 21.2164,86.8640 (near Basudebpur) 4.6 – 10.3 West Bengal 22.0319,88.0991 (near Haldia) 1.3 – 11.0 Tamil Nadu 10.3458,79.5660 (near Nagapattinam) 3.4 – 9.0

Location of maximum range of water levels for each maritime state

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(a) (b)

Elevation along the Indian coast on 10-year return period (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

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Elevation along the Indian coast on 10-year return period with 7% increment in winds (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

(a) (b)

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(a) (b)

Elevation along the Indian coast on 10-year return period with 11% increment in winds (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

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Elevation along the Indian coast on 50-year return period (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

(a) (b)

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(a) (b)

Elevation along the Indian coast on 50-year return period with 7% increment in winds (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

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Elevation along the Indian coast on 50-year return period with 11% increment in winds (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

(a) (b)

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(a) (b)

Elevation along the Indian coast on 100-year return period (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

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Elevation along the Indian coast on 100-year return period with 7% increment in winds (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

(a) (b)

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(a) (b)

Elevation along the Indian coast on 100-year return period with 11% increment in winds (a) Surges(m) (b) Total water elevations(m)

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Computed surges in the Gulf of Khambat for all possible scenarios (a-c) for 10-year return period, (d-f) 50-year return period, (g-i) 100-year return period

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Maximum surge for 100-year return period along the Indian coast for each scenario Enhancement of surge in terms of percentage due to climate change on 100-year return period over the normal scenario

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