Munitions Supply Chain Modelling: A Top-Down Approach Crispin - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Munitions Supply Chain Modelling: A Top-Down Approach Crispin Allard & Louise Carver

‘The Barbican’, East Street, Farnham, Surrey GU9 7TB 01252 738500 www.Advantage-Business.co.uk

Contents of Presentation

• 1. Project MASS
• 2. Requirement for Analysis
• 3. Methodology
• 4. Illustrative Results
• 5. Discussion
• 6. Conclusions

Project MASS MASS = Munitions Acquisition, the Supply Solution Objectives:

• Provide munitions at least as effectively

as now

• Ensure long term security of supply
• Do it at lower cost

Production

Produce Finish Buffer Stores Buffer Stores Main Stores Supplier 3rd Party Suppliers Other Tier 1 Suppliers Buffer Stores Buffer Stores Main Stores Receipt Process

Storage

MOD

Current Munitions Supply Chain

Issue Buffer Stores Buffer Stores Trg Stores Training Training Training Operations Operations Operations Coupling Bridge Consumed Consumed Disposed In Theatre Distribute

Distribution

Returned Returned UK Disposal UK Disposal Disposal

Disposal

Future MASS Supply Chain?

ROD Suppliers Manufacture Manufacture Produce Buffer Stores Buffer Stores Tier 1 Supplier Stores Buffer Stores Buffer Stores Main Stores Buffer Stores Buffer Stores Trg Stores Distribute UK Disposal UK Disposal Disposal Training Training Training Operations Operations Operations Coupling Bridge Consumed Consumed Disposed In Theatre Demand Fulfilment MASS Boundary Receipt Issue Process Manufacture Manufacture Finish Returned Returned ROD Suppliers 3

rd Party

Suppliers

Production Storage Distribution Disposal Management

Requirement for Analysis

• Supply Chain Options vary by:

– Process (surge capacity, distribution, storage) – Organisation (outsourcing, management structure)

• COEIA requirements:

– Compare option effectiveness under varying conditions – Cost the options – Discriminate between the options

Illustrative Options

• A. Traditional stockpile-based supply

system.

• B. Enhanced surge capacity to reduce

stock holding requirement and direct delivery of training munitions. C.Industry Partner takes on responsibility for managing almost all aspects of the supply chain, including procurement from 3rd party suppliers.

Methodology: Key choices

• MoE: Demand fulfilment (at the MASS

Boundary)

• Constant effectiveness
• Model demand side as well as supply

side

– “Meta-scenario” approach: Combinations

• f operational scenarios over 25 years

COEIA methodology overview

OCFs OCFs

COEIA

Training Activities Munitions Required for all Activities Option definitions:

• Distribution
• Storage
• Disposal
• Management

Production/procurement Cost Data Risk Register

Supply Chain Supply Chain Model

Activity Profiles

Cost Model Cost Model

Supply Chain Activities

Operational Effectiveness Concurrency Constraints Operational Activities Activity Profile Generator Activity Profile Generator Investment Appraisal

COEIA methodology overview

• A. Generate activity profiles
• B. Calculate demand profiles
• C. Determine target stock holdings
• D. Measure supply chain activities
• E. Cost the options
• F. Identify other contributory factors

• A. Generate Activity Profiles
• Simulate 25 year profile according to

frequencies for each size of scenario

• Apply constraints on concurrency and

minimum intervals between operations

• Apply probabilities for operations

continuing (every 6 months)

Example Frequency (25 years) Size of scenario Low Medium High Large Scale 1 2 3 Medium Scale 5 10 15 Small Scale 10 20 30 Exercise 5 5 5

NB: Illustrative numbers

• B. Calculate demand profiles
• Add munitions required for each activity

in profile

• Factor in returns and training needs

Demands

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Year Boxes Demanded Returns Ops Trg

The Supply Chain Model Functional components

• C. Determine target stock holdings
• Run all profiles using maximum holding
• Adjust holding and verify

105mm HE

Option A Option B Option C

• No. Boxes Required in Store

APF(L) APF(M) APF(H)

• D. Measure supply chain activities
• Production:

– Quantity of munitions produced – Shift patterns

• Storage:

– Quantities in store – Time in store

• Distribution:

– Quantities transferred between each pair of nodes

• Returns
• Disposals

Illustrative Results 1: Shift Profile

7.62mm Ball Shells

Option A Option B Option C

• No. Weeks spent on shift pattern

1 Shift 2 Shifts 2 Shift + WE 3 Shifts

Illustrative Results 2: Stock over time

105mm HE Shell

1 20 39 58 77 96 115 134 153 172 191 210 229 248 267 286

Month

Number in Store Option A Option B

Illustrative Results 3: Sensitivity Target Holdings Low, Activity Levels High

Option A Option B Option C Demands Not Met 5.56mm Ball Belted 7.62mm 1B1T Belted 30mm Round RARDEN 105mm HE 4.5” Round 120mm Shell 155mm L15 Shell

Discussion: the top down approach

• Start by considering key drivers

– What is needed to discriminate between

• ptions?

– How simple can it be?

• Consequences of this approach

– Emphasis on modelling demand side: “meta-scenario” approach and APG – Generic form of supply chain model

Conclusions

• Top-down approach resulted in:

– Method that encompassed key factors – Models comprehensive and quick to run

• Benefits to project:

– Able to evaluate a wide range of options – Able to discriminate between options

• Method and models are fit for purpose