SLIDE 1 MTF Challenge: Data and Submissions
Webinar, September 19, 2017
SLIDE 2 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation 1. Introductions
- 2. What it Means to Be an Actuary
- 3. Challenge Topic & Data Review
- 4. Submission Tips
- 5. Team Resources
- 6. What’s Next
- 7. Q&A
Webinar Agenda
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www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Hosted by:
The Actuarial Foundation
Managed by:
Institute of Competition Sciences
Introductions
Outreach and Mentorship Committee
31 actuarial professionals and university professors volunteering to support students and educators.
Gold Sponsors:
Roy & Georgia Goldman
Bronze Sponsors:
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www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
What it means to be an Actuary.
SLIDE 5 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Actuaries use mathematics to analyze risks and recommend the best pathways forward to minimize undesirable effects. Actuaries,
- Evaluate the likelihood of future events—using numbers, not crystal balls.
- Design creative ways to reduce the likelihood of undesirable events.
- Decrease the impact of undesirable events that do occur.
Actuaries work in many different types of businesses and government agencies such as:
- Insurance. (designing and pricing programs like health and home insurance)
- Banking, Investment management.
- Energy, such as utilities, oil, and gas.
An actuaries’ skills are transferable to any industry that requires risk modeling and management.
What it means to be an actuary.
SLIDE 6 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation Why have an actuarial career?
- Actuaries are consistently ranked among the best careers.
- Median Base Salary: $110,560 (according to BusinessInsider.com)
- Be a behind-the-scenes driver of key business decisions!
Find more information on: www.beanactuary.org
What it means to be an actuary.
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www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation Additional TAF Resources: The Actuarial Foundation produces free student and teacher exercises and activities involving financial literacy, statistics, and other relevant areas of mathematics.
What it means to be an actuary.
https://www.actuarialfoundation.org/browse-all-teacher-student-resources/
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www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
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www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review First, get to know autonomous vehicles!
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www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
Autonomous Vehicles Data:
1. Mckinsey & Co. 2016 Report 2. AAMVA Autonomous Vehicle Information Library 3. WIRED Autonomous Vehicle News
These and other recommended sources are at: https://www.mtfchallenge.org/resources/autonomous-vehicle-data/
SLIDE 11 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
Autonomous Vehicle Data: Mckinsey & Co. 2016 Report What can you learn?
1. Exhibit 10: information on how many people might buy into autonomous cars from Germany, US, and China. 2. Exhibit 11: information on how many people might buy an autonomous car by age range.’ 3. Exhibit 14: Mckinsey’s projections on how many autonomous vehicles there could be on the road by 2030. 4. Exhibit 15: information on how much time could be saved (given back) to commuters going to work each day/year.
SLIDE 12 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
Autonomous Vehicle Data: AAMVA Autonomous Vehicle Information Library What can you learn?
1. Includes many reports on the future adoption of autonomous vehicles. Learn what is expected by reading some of these reports. 2. Some reports include data and information on various sectors of the Transportation Industry and how they can adapt to autonomous vehicles. 3. “News Media” articles provide a easy to read review of some of the issues with autonomous vehicles that need to be addressed and how companies are looking at them.
SLIDE 13 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
Autonomous Vehicle Data: WIRED Autonomous Vehicle News What can you learn?
1. WIRED magazine keeps a very up-to-date list of relevant articles about autonomous vehicles. These provide an easy to read review of the latest thinking, and top level data about current status of autonomous vehicles. Use this as an introductory resource to autonomous vehicles.
SLIDE 14 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
Three Major Parts of the Challenge Topic (and your submission):
- 1. Transportation Industry Analysis
- 2. Insurance Industry Analysis
- 3. Society-at-large Analysis
SLIDE 15 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
Transportation Industry Analysis Data:
- 1. Bureau of Labor Statistics “Transportation & Warehousing Industry” Data
- 2. The Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS)
- 3. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Automobile & Truck Sales Data
- 4. Bureau of Transportation Statistics
These and other recommended sources are at: https://www.mtfchallenge.org/resources/transportation-industry-data/
SLIDE 16 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
Transportation Industry Analysis Data:
Bureau of Labor Statistics “Transportation & Warehousing Industry” What can you learn?
1. Information about how many jobs are in each sector of the Transportation Industry. 2. Information about how much people get paid for each type of Job. 3. The locations of where the jobs are. You can use this data combined with what you know about autonomous vehicles to make projections about how the industry (or sub-sector) will change with adoption of autonomous vehicles, and what impact will that have on the people and companies in this industry.
SLIDE 17 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
Transportation Industry Analysis Data:
The Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) What can you learn?
1. How many traffic fatalities there have been in the last 20 years and what types of accidents they were. 2. How many vehicles are registered. 3. Many other statistics about automobile accidents. You can use this data to make projections about how changes in automobile
- wnership or other adoption of autonomous vehicles might change the number of
accidents, fatalities, or costs. This data may also be useful in the other sections of your report as well!
SLIDE 18 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
Transportation Industry Analysis Data:
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Automobile & Truck Sales Data What can you learn?
1. The type and quantity of vehicles sold each year for the past ~20 years. 2. Where the vehicles sold come from (foreign/domestic). You can use this data to make projections about how the adoption of autonomous vehicles might change the production and sales of vehicles. How would this impact the companies and people that own them?
SLIDE 19 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
Transportation Industry Analysis Data:
Bureau of Transportation Statistics What can you learn?
1. Total numbers of vehicle miles driven for various types of vehicles that you may want to analyze. 2. Other spreadsheets may also be useful at BTS (hint: search for “autonomous vehicles” or “self-driving cars”) You can use this data to help in your analysis of how autonomous vehicle might change the total number of vehicles on the road, or how far they drive.
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www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
Insurance Industry Analysis Data:
1. Insurance Services Office Inc. data on automobile insurance claims for the past 20 years. 2. American Academy of Actuaries: Auto Insurance in the 21st Century.
These and other recommended sources are at: https://www.mtfchallenge.org/resources/insurance-industry-data/
SLIDE 21 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
Insurance Industry Analysis Data:
Insurance Services Office Inc. data on automobile insurance What can you learn?
1. The ISO data included information on the average cost of insurance claims for the past 20 years. It provides information on both commercial and personal accidents. You can use this data to project how changes to the transportation industry due to the adoption of autonomous vehicles might impact insurance claims.
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www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Challenge Topic & Data Review
Society-At-Large Analysis Data:
1. WIRED Autonomous Vehicle News 2. Social Impact Articles on MTF
These and other recommended sources are at: https://www.mtfchallenge.org/resources/societal-impact-data/
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www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Submission Tips
SLIDE 24 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Submission Tips: a 3-Step Process
1
Step 1: Start by Identifying Questions.
There is so much information out there, and so many ways you could take your report, its easy to get lost! To help you focus and save time. Start by identifying a few questions you or your students think are important for each section of the report.
Step 2: Then Select Your Data
What data sources will help you create your mathematical models of how autonomous vehicles may impact the future of transportation, insurance, and society at large? Review the data sources provided to select information that will help you refine your mathematical models for each section of the report.
Step 3: Finally Model the Change
Using mathematical tools, create your models of how the adoption of self-driving vehicles will impact: (1) transportation, (2) insurance, and (3) society at large in the next 10 years. Use statistics and other mathematical modeling techniques to be as specific as you can based on the data and demonstrate sound reasoning!
2 3
SLIDE 25 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Submission Tips
Submissions include:
- 1. Executive Summary (Up to 2 pages max)
- 2. Transportation Industry Changes (Up to 10 pages max)
- 3. Insurance Industry Changes (Up to 10 pages max)
- 4. Society at Large Changes (Up to 5 pages max)
- 5. Conclusions and Recommendations (Up to 3 pages max)
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www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Team Resources
SLIDE 27 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
MENTORSHIP
A simple 2 question form can get you an actuarial mentor for your class.
www.mtfchallenge.org/support/mentorship/ Team Resources
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www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
What’s Next?
SLIDE 29 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Upcoming Milestones
- Oct 17, 2017 – Final educator webinar.
- Oct 28, 2017 – Team registrations due & Submissions Open
- Nov 25, 2017 – Submissions due
- Dec 20, 2017 – Finalists announced
- Feb 25-26, 2018 – MTF Symposium, Finalist presentations, and awards
What’s Next
SLIDE 30 www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation Team Registration
The MTF Challenge uses the ICS Team Registration & Submission Platform.
- Register multiple teams of students on one educator
login.
- Manage all teams from one master account, or allow
students to setup their own teams that you coach.
- Upload your submission online.
- Get a Judges Feedback Report directly to your email.
What’s Next
https://www.mtfchallenge.org/register/team-signup/
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www.mtfchallenge.org | A Program of The Actuarial Foundation
Questions
Thank you for joining us! We look forward to helping you engage your students with the Modeling the Future Challenge.
Questions?
Contact:
challenge@mtfchallenge.org
