Mostafa Hashem Sherif SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan M. - - PDF document

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 1

Mostafa Hashem Sherif

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 2

Problem Definition

How to define an ICT standards strategy today?

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 3

Factors to Consider

• Not all innovations are the same --> Not all

standardizations are the same

• The actors: manufacturers, service providers,

content distributors, standardization bodies, government,

• Innovations in equipment are different than

innovations in service (even when they have the same technological basis)

• The element of time and the technology life cycle

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 4

The Current Activities ICT

• Telecommunica

tions

• Broadcast
• Information

services and systems

• Entertainment

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 5

Platform Innovation Radical Innovation

New Value Chain New Technology Existing Value Chain

Architecture Innovation Incremental Innovation

Technological Discontinuity Value Chain Discontinuity Disruptive Innovations Sustaining Innovations

Existing Technology

Classification of Innovations

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 6

Platform Innovation Radical Innovation Architecture Innovation Incremental Innovation

Technological Discontinuity Value Chain Discontinuity

Objectives from Innovations

Risk Minimization Market Building Performance Improvement System Optimization

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 7

Ethernet As Carrier Transport Infrastructure

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 8

Platform Innovation (ITU-T SG 15) Radical Innovation

New Value Chain New Technology Existing Value Chain

Architecture Innovation Incremental Innovation (IEEE 802)

Technological Discontinuity Value Chain Discontinuity Disruptive Innovations Sustaining Innovations

Existing Technology

Classification of New Generation of Ethernet

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SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 9

Market Penetration Time 4-10 years Core Network Equipment Network Services

• There is a difference in the time scale

between equipment vendors and service providers.

• For “platform innovations” sales of core

network equipment constitute a leading indicator for service evolution

Network Equipment and Services

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SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 10

NGN and NGN+

• NGN

– IP-based network + network control function – Internet functions maintained – Most activity are incremental innovations

• NGN+

– IP+ or post-IP: platform innovation for networking technology

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 11

HDTV

• Was viewed as a platform innovation in Japan

(MUSE): digital images delivered over analog transmission

• Was viewed as an architectural innovation in the

US (Grand Coalition: broadcasting, telecommunications, computers and academia)

• In Europe: manufacturers viewed as incremental

(D-MAC) then as architectural innovation of broadcasters, manufacturers and regulatory agencies(DBV)

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 12

Some Radical Innovations

• 3G Wireless
• Photonic Switching (AKARI project)

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 13

Some Rules of Thumbs

• Architectural innovations No standards or

standard wars (even within the same standard

• rganization).
• Platform innovations Technology competition
• Technological systems are a combination of

innovations at different stages in their lifecycles

• Industrial actors may have diverging views of the

innovation (depending on their domain of activities) conflicting standardization activities

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 14

“Ideal” Standardization

• Risk management anticipatory

standards /radical innovations

• Marketing tool enabling

standards/architectural innovations

• Scale and performance improvement

enabling standards/platform innovations

• Cost reduction responsive

standards/incremental innovations

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 15

Standards-Technology Timing Relationship

Time Performance

Anticipatory standards Enabling standards Responsive standards Technology Transition New technology Existing technology

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 16

Role of Standard Bodies

• Owners but not producers of standards
• Provide a service to standards producers,

suppliers and sponsors and consumers, regulators and end-users

• The service: is to assist in standards

production and distribution (and promotion?)

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SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 17

Is there a role for Governments in ICT Innovation and Standardization ?

• Architectural innovations:

– Create a market pull through the liberalization and deregulation to allow combination and adopt technologies from other fields – Mediate among involved parties to avoid waste

• f significant resources in standards wars

• M. H. Sherif

SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 18

Government Role in ICT Radical Innovation

• The main concern in radical innovation is to

minimize risks.

– Four types of risks: technical, resource,

• rganizational, and market uncertainties.
• Government role in risk reduction

– support and fund for research activities – Initiate and maintain specialized education programs

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SIIT 2009 September 9, 2009 Tokyo, Japan 19

Conclusions on Development of Standardization Strategy

• Scope of Standardization depends on:

– Type of innovation and the phase in the life cycle of the technology – Standardization for products is different than standardization for services.

• Goals of standardization depend on the actor
• Major problem of the market-based

standardization process is the lack of accountability.Those who make standards are anonymous and do not answer for the long-term effect of their technical choices