More and better paid jobs Address to the BCA 28 September 2017 The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
More and better paid jobs Address to the BCA 28 September 2017 The Hon Scott Morrison MP Treasurer Many advanced economies have experienced low wage growth Per cent, tty Per cent, tty 6 6 Australia 4 4 US 2 2 New Zealand euro area
2 Note: Measures used are Wage Price Index for Australia, Employment Cost Index for the US, and Labour Cost Index for the euro area, the UK and New Zealand Source: Eurostat, Thomson Reuters
2 4 6
2 4 6 Jun-02 Jun-05 Jun-08 Jun-11 Jun-14 Jun-17 Per cent, tty Per cent, tty Australia UK US New Zealand euro area
Note: Australian figures are for fiscal year 2015-16 onwards. Measures used are Wage Price Index for Australia, Employment Cost Index for the US, Labour Cost Index for the UK and compensation per employee for the euro area. Source: Australian Budget, US CBO, UK OBR, ECB 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 US UK euro area Australia Per cent Per cent 2016 (actual) 2017 2018 2019
4 Note: As a share of jobs that experience a wage change; smoothed using a four-quarter moving average Source: Joint ABS and RBA research 10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40 50 Dec-00 Dec-04 Dec-08 Dec-12 Dec-16 Per cent of jobs Per cent of jobs More than 4% 2-3% 3-4% 0-2% Less than 0%
5 Note: Five-year annual average Source: ABS Cat. No. 6345.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 Australian Capital Territory Northern Territory Tasmania Western Australia South Australia Queensland Victoria New South Wales Australia Per cent Per cent 2002 to 2007 2007 to 2012 2012 to 2017
6 Source: ABS Cat. No. 6524.0, 6524.0.55.002, Treasury Source: ABS Cat. No. 6524.0, 6524.0.55.002, Treasury
Ratio of capital city wage level over rest of state regions Average wage growth across capital cities and rest of state regions
1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30
NSW VIC SA NT QLD TAS WA AUST
Ratio Ratio 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 96-97 99-00 02-03 05-06 08-09 11-12 14-15 Wages (%yoy) Wages (%yoy) Capital city Rest of state
7 Note: For employees aged 15-64 Source: Treasury calculations on HILDA Survey data, waves 1 to 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 School only Vocational University Per cent Per cent Average 2005-10 Average 2010-15 Highest level of education
8 Note: For employees aged 15-64 working full time Source: Treasury calculations on HILDA Survey data, waves 1 to 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 Under 25 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 and over Per cent Per cent Average 2005-10 Average 2010-15
2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Per cent Per cent
Wage income decile
2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Per cent Per cent
Wage income decile
Source: Treasury calculations on HILDA Survey data, waves 1 to 15
Average 2005-2010 Average 2010-2015
Note: Labour market conditions index is lagged 3 quarters Source: ABS Cat. no 6345.0; Grant et al (2016) and Treasury
25 50 1 2 3 4 5 Sep-97 Sep-00 Sep-03 Sep-06 Sep-09 Sep-12 Sep-15 Sep-18 Per cent, tty Index Wage Price Index (LHS) Labour Market Conditions Index (RHS)
Source: ABS Cat. no. 6202.0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Aug-81 Aug-90 Aug-99 Aug-08 Aug-17 Underutilisation rate Unemployment rate Underemployment rate Per cent Per cent
Source: RBA 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-17 Per cent Per cent Market economists (one-year ahead) 10-year bond breakeven Union officials (one-year ahead)
13 Note: The real producer wage is AENA (per hour) deflated by the GDP deflator; the real consumer wage is AENA (per hour) deflated by the household consumption deflator; labour productivity is per hour Source: ABS Cat. No. 5206.0, Treasury 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Jun-93 Jun-96 Jun-99 Jun-02 Jun-05 Jun-08 Jun-11 Jun-14 Jun-17 Index: Mar-03=100 Index: Mar-03=100 Real consumer wage Real producer wage Labour productivity
14 Source: BLADE and Treasury calculations 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 $'000 (2001-02 prices) $'000 (2001-02 prices) Mid High Top 10%
Low
15 Source: BLADE and Treasury calculations Note: Business size refers to business turnover 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 $'000 (2001-02 prices) $'000 (2001-02 prices) $50 million plus $10-$50 million $2-$10 million $0-$2 million
The results of studies based on BLADE data, in part, rely on ABR data supplied by the Registrar to the ABS under A New Tax System (Australian Business Number) Act 1999 and tax data supplied by the ATO to the ABS under the Taxation Administration Act 1953. These require that such data is only used for the purpose of carrying out functions of the ABS. No individual information collected under the Census and Statistics Act 1905 is provided back to the Registrar or ATO for administrative or regulatory purposes. Any discussion of data limitations or weaknesses is in the context of using the data for statistical purposes, and is not related to the ability of the data to support the ABR or ATO’s core operational requirements. Legislative requirements to ensure privacy and secrecy of this data have been followed. Only people authorised under the Australian Bureau of Statistics Act 1975 have been allowed to view data about any particular firm in conducting these analyses. In accordance with the Census and Statistics Act 1905, results have been confidentialised used to ensure that they are not likely to enable identification of a particular person or
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