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Monetary policy decision October 2018 If inflation prospects hold - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Monetary policy decision October 2018 If inflation prospects hold - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Monetary policy decision October 2018 If inflation prospects hold up, it will soon be appropriate to raise the repo rate Favourable international economic activity with gradually rising interest rates Good GDP growth Rising government bond
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Favourable international economic activity with gradually rising interest rates
Annual percentage change and per cent. Zero coupon yields calculated from 10-year government bonds. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, national sources, the Office for National Statistics and the Riksbank
Rising government bond yields Good GDP growth
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Increased uncertainty surrounding international prospects
Escalated trade conflict between the United States and China Economic policy situation in Italy Brexit Unease in some emerging market economies
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Strong Swedish economic activity
Calmer GDP growth But continued high pressure on the labour market
Annual percentage change and per cent Sources: Statistics Sweden, the NIER and the Riksbank
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Inflation on target, energy prices providing a boost
Annual percentage change and percentage points. The contribution of energy prices to the CPIF in the forecast is calculated as the annual percentage change in energy prices multiplied by their current weight in the CPIF. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Contribution from energy prices set to decrease
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1 2 3
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1 2 3 11 13 15 17 19 21 Energy prices contribution to the CPIF CPIF
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Moderate inflationary pressures
Core inflation lower than the CPIF Signs of higher cost pressures
Annual percentage change. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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1 2 3 4
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1 2 3 4 09 11 13 15 17 CPIF, September outcome
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Good conditions for inflation close to 2 per cent going forward
Continued good economic activity in Sweden Rising cost pressures Gradually higher inflationary pressures abroad Inflation expectations at 2 per cent
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If inflation prospects hold up, it will soon be appropriate to slowly raise the repo rate
Source: The Riksbank Per cent
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The inflation forecast is based on the repo rate being raised slowly in the period ahead
Annual percentage change. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Energy prices are increasing more slowly
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Monetary policy needs to proceed cautiously
Higher interest rates likely in the period ahead Inflation has been low for a long period, need to be vigilant about inflationary pressures Krona exchange rate continues to be important factor Monetary policy is adjusted according to prospects for inflation
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