Monetary policy decision July 2018 Expansionary monetary policy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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May 10, 2023 244 likes •362 views

Monetary policy decision July 2018 Expansionary monetary policy for continued on-target inflation going forward Favourable international economic activity, moderate inflation GDP growth Inflation Oil price providing a boost Annual

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Monetary policy decision

July 2018

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Expansionary monetary policy for continued on-target inflation going forward

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Favourable international economic activity, moderate inflation

GDP growth Inflation

Annual percentage change. The KIX is an aggregate of GDP in countries that are important for Sweden's international transactions. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, national sources and the Riksbank

Oil price providing a boost

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Greater uncertainty abroad

Increased trade barriers Economic policy situation in Italy Unease in some emerging market economies

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Strong economic activity in Sweden

Growth subdued in line with expectations Continued strong labour market

Annual percentage change and net figures respectively. Recruitment plans refer to expectations of the number of employed in the business sector three months ahead. Broken line in the figure to the right is the average for 2000– 2017.

Source: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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Inflationary pressure rising, but slowly

Annual percentage change. The field shows the highest and lowest

utcome for different measures of underlying inflation, see note. Fig

3:3 in MPR. The dot represents the latest outcome for the CPIF. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4 5 01 04 07 10 13 16 CPIF

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Weaker krona

Index, 18 November 1992 = 100. Outcomes are daily data and forecasts refer to quarterly averages. The KIX is an aggregate of exchange rates in countries important for Sweden's international transactions. Sources: National sources and the Riksbank

Weaker krona Stronger krona

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Inflation on target with support from monetary policy

Annual percentage change. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Energy prices and exchange rate

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Monetary policy considerations

Developments largely in line with the forecast. Inflation on target, energy prices providing a boost As before, inflationary pressure deemed moderate Greater uncertainty abroad Argument for continuing down chosen path and waiting until the end of the year to raise the interest rate

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Continued expansionary monetary policy

Interest rate expected to be increased towards end of year Reinvestments in bond portfolio

Per cent and nominal amount, SEK billion. The development of reinvestments from mid-2018 onwards is a forecast and refers to nominal

amounts. The final amounts will depend on current market prices.

Source: Sveriges Riksbank 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 H1 2018 H2 2018 H1 2019 Reinvestments of coupons Reinvestments of redemptions New purchases

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