Are We Better Off Under Trump? The Short Answer Is No By Simon - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

By Simon Rosenberg and Chris Taylor NDN Thursday, October 25th, 2018

Are We Better Off Under Trump? The Short Answer Is No

Median Income Growth Has Slowed

5.15% 3.13% 1.76% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 2015 2016 2017

Percent Change in Median Household Income

NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Census Bureau 2

Real Wage Growth Is Weaker

NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3

1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 2015-16 2017-18

Average Annual Percentage Change in Real Hourly Wages

Job Growth Has Slowed

NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 4

211 193 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 2015-16 2017-18 Thousands

Average Monthly Job Growth

The Deficit Has Surged

3.1% 3.4% 3.9% 4.6% 5.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Obama's 2nd Term 2017 2018 2019 (Projected) 2020-22 (Projected)

Deficit as Percentage of GDP

NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5

Gas Prices Are Rising

$2.29 $2.42 $2.88 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 2015-16 2017 2018 (to October 20th)

Average Price of a Gallon of Gas

NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6

Interest Rates Are Rising

2.10% 1.95% 2.35% 2.85% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average Yield on 10-yr US Bond

NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7

Causing Mortgage Rates To Rise Too

3.85% 3.70% 4.00% 4.40% 3.20% 3.40% 3.60% 3.80% 4.00% 4.20% 4.40% 4.60% 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average Rate on 30-yr Fixed Rate Mortgage

NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 8

The Trade Deficit Is Widening

0.4% 3.8% 7.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Obama's 2nd Term 2017 2018 (projected)

Annual Percentage Increase in the Trade Deficit

NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9

The Uninsured Rate Has Stopped Falling

1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% Obama's 2nd Term 2017

Average Annual Decline in the Uninsured Rate

NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Census Bureau 10

And Has Started Rising For The Poor And Middle Class

1.7%

• 0.3%
• 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2014-16 2017

Average Annual Decline In The Uninsured Rate Among Those Earning Less Than $100k/yr

NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Census Bureau 11

Even Coal Production Has Fallen

903 774 741 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Obama's 2nd Term 2017 2018 (projected) Million Short Tons

Average Annual Coal Production

NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Energy Information Administration 12

And The Stock Market Is Growing More Slowly

14.3% 11.3% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Obama's 2nd Term 2017-18

Average Annual Increase In The S&P 500

NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13