Are We Better Off Under Trump? The Short Answer Is No By Simon - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Are We Better Off Under Trump? The Short Answer Is No By Simon Rosenberg and Chris Taylor NDN Thursday, October 25 th , 2018

Median Income Growth Has Slowed Percent Change in Median Household Income 6.00% 5.15% 5.00% 4.00% 3.13% 3.00% 1.76% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2015 2016 2017 NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Census Bureau 2

Real Wage Growth Is Weaker Average Annual Percentage Change in Real Hourly Wages 1.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2015-16 2017-18 NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3

Job Growth Has Slowed Average Monthly Job Growth Thousands 220 211 210 200 193 190 180 170 160 2015-16 2017-18 NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 4

The Deficit Has Surged Deficit as Percentage of GDP 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.6% 3.9% 4.0% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Obama's 2nd 2017 2018 2019 (Projected) 2020-22 Term (Projected) NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 5

Gas Prices Are Rising Average Price of a Gallon of Gas $3.50 $2.88 $3.00 $2.42 $2.50 $2.29 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 2015-16 2017 2018 (to October 20th) NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 6

Interest Rates Are Rising Average Yield on 10-yr US Bond 2.85% 3.00% 2.35% 2.50% 2.10% 1.95% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 2015 2016 2017 2018 NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 7

Causing Mortgage Rates To Rise Too Average Rate on 30-yr Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.60% 4.40% 4.40% 4.20% 4.00% 4.00% 3.85% 3.80% 3.70% 3.60% 3.40% 3.20% 2015 2016 2017 2018 NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 8

The Trade Deficit Is Widening Annual Percentage Increase in the Trade Deficit 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.8% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% Obama's 2nd Term 2017 2018 (projected) NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 9

The Uninsured Rate Has Stopped Falling Average Annual Decline in the Uninsured Rate 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Obama's 2nd Term 2017 NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Census Bureau 10

And Has Started Rising For The Poor And Middle Class Average Annual Decline In The Uninsured Rate Among Those Earning Less Than $100k/yr 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.3% -0.5% 2014-16 2017 NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Census Bureau 11

Even Coal Production Has Fallen Average Annual Coal Production Million Short Tons 1200 1000 903 774 741 800 600 400 200 0 Obama's 2nd Term 2017 2018 (projected) NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Energy Information Administration 12

And The Stock Market Is Growing More Slowly Average Annual Increase In The S&P 500 16.0% 14.3% 14.0% 11.3% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Obama's 2nd Term 2017-18 NDN – Trump’s Economy Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 13