Trump vs. Reality: Economic Promises Made and Broken Executive S - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Trump vs. Reality: Economic Promises Made and Broken

Executive S Summary y

§ While President Trump has made promise after promise to make the economy better for all Americans, a close look at the data tells a different story. § The One Country Project (OCP) took a look at the President’s top economic promises, ranging from growing the economy “to 4, 5, and many even 6 percent” to job creation to trade. § The results? Far from what was promised. The following presentation outlines Trump failures on: § GDP and Government Stimulus § Manufacturing § Agricultural Exports § Farm Debt § Infrastructure § Tax Cuts and Wage Growth § Federal Debt and Deficit § Labor Force Participation

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Change in GDP and federal spending by quarter

Government Spending GDP

GDP a and G Government S Stimulus

What T Trump p promised: “The economy now is at 3 percent. Nobody thought it would be anywhere close. I think it could go to 4, 5, and maybe even 6 percent, ultimately.” President Donald Trump to White House press, 7/26/2019 What T Trump d delivered: : The GDP growth is nowhere near Trump’s optimistic predictions and would likely be lower if the federal government wasn’t spending at a clip not seen since the Great Recession.

Source: USDC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Products Accounts, 6/26/2019

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Manufacturing Business Confidence Index

Manu Manufac acturing ng

What T Trump p promised: According to ProPublica, Trump has made 35 claims that companies would create 8.9 million jobs in the U.S. thanks to his policies and actions. ProPublica, 5/7/2019 What T Trump d delivered: : U.S. factory activity grows at its slowest pace the last three years, according to the U.S. ISM Purchasing Manufacturers Index, and business confidence is on the decline.

Source: Institute of Supply Management, Manufacturing Index

Manufacturing Business Confidence Index Trend Line

$21.4 $19.5 $9.2 $2.9 5 10 15 20 25 2016 2017 2018 2019 USDA Forecast

Exports in Billions USD

U.S. annual agricultural exports to China

Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service; USDA Economic Research Service

Agricultural E Exports

What T Trump p promised: : “As they have learned in the last two years, our great American Farmers know that China will not be able to hurt them in that their President has stood with them and done what no other president would do.” - @realDonaldTrump, August 6, 2019 What T Trump d delivered: : A $12.24 billion decrease in agricultural exports to China, with an additional $6.3 billion in losses expected this year, according to economists at the USDA.

Farm D Debt

What T Trump p promised: “Within a year and a half, I would say, you’ll be in the best position you’ve been in in 15 years as farmers. And you deserve it…Under my administration we will always protect and defend our great American patriot farmer. Always.” Remarks by President Trump, 6/11/2019 What T Trump d delivered: : According to USDA’s Economic Research Service, U.S. farm debt continues to increase, and is expected to reach almost $427 billion in 2019 – the highest level since the 1980s.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Farm Income and Wealth Statistics, 03/06/19 380 385 390 395 400 405 410 415 420 425 430 2016 2017 2018 2019

Debt in Billions USD

Farm sector debt

7.6% increase from 2016

In Infra rastruc ructure ure

What T Trump p promised: “We’re gonna rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we’re going to put millions of people to work as we rebuild it.” President Donald Trump election night speech, 11/9/2016 What T Trump d delivered: : Spending on infrastructure during Trump’s years in office is not significantly higher than past presidencies.

Source: Congressional Budget Office, using data from the Office of Management and Budget and the Census Bureau 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Infrastructure Spending in Billions USD

Federal spending on transportation and water infrastructure

Tax C Cuts a and W Wage G Growth

Source: Federal Reserve Bank, 12/18 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 2015 2016 2017 2018

Percent

Year-over-year change in real wages among production nonsupervisory workers

TCJA enacted

What T Trump p promised: “Your paychecks are going way up. Your taxes are going way down.” @GOP tweet, 4/15/2019 What T Trump d delivered: : The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) primarily benefits the wealthy and real wage growth has slowed since the President took office.

Federal D Debt a and D Deficit

$17.5 $18.0 $18.5 $19.0 $19.5 $20.0 $20.5 $21.0 $21.5 $22.0 $22.5 16 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 17 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 18 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 19 Q1

Millions of Dollars

Total public debt

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal Service, Federal Debt 14.34% increase from Q1 2016

What T Trump p promised: : President Trump told the Washington Post in an interview that he would eliminate the nation’s more than $19 trillion national debt “over a period of eight years.” Washington Post interview, 4/2/2016 What T Trump d delivered: : According to Trump’s own budget estimates, his spending would add $9.1 trillion to the national debt during that time.

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9 Participation Rate (%)

Labor participation rate from January 2009 to present

Labor F Force P Participation

What T Trump p promised: : “… And we're also getting into the pool of the 100 million people that are not working. That pool is now coming back. As you know, that's not considered in the low employment numbers, which means we have a lot of people that want to get to work, and that will be working.” Remarks by President Trump, 12/6/2019 What T Trump d delivered: : The labor force participation rate has remained steady since President Obama was in office.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics