Modifying ECQ after April 30, 2020 Decision tool [Work in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Decision tool

[Work in progress] As of April 28, 2020

Modifying ECQ after April 30, 2020

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Proposed decision tool for a modified ECQ

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Weighing the trade off between income and health Economy

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a. Sectors of GDP allowed to function b. People allowed to go out to work c. People who will ride public transport

Health

a. R0 b. Duration of infection c. Peak d. Total infected e. Number of severe and critical cases f. Number of deaths g. Health gains (e.g., averted COVID-19 death)

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Establish minimum health standards for the people and employer, and health system capacity Decision based on geographic risk of outbreak Decision based on age and health risks Decision based on essential sectors Decision on the use of public transport

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Proposed decision tool for a modified ECQ

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Proposed decision tool for a modified ECQ

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• II. Decision

based on geographic risk

• f outbreak

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LGU ECQ recommendation Acceleration - ECQ extended by 2 weeks. Deceleration and initiation

• GCQ following age,

health, and sector restrictions. Recognition and preparation - GCQ following age, health, and sector restrictions, and if no deterioration in 2 weeks, relax GCQ.

Decision on ECQ and GCQ based on risk of outbreak

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LGU EPIDEMIC RESPONSE FRAMEWORK Critical care utilization rate (by region) <30% 30-70% >70% Case doubling time (for above 25 cases) >30 days Recognition Initiation Acceleration Preparation 7 to 30 days Initiation Initiation Acceleration Deceleration <7 days Acceleration Acceleration Acceleration 1 2 3

Source: EpiMetrics, DOH

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• III. Decision

based on age and health risks

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If ECQ is modified in moderate risk areas, the following are proposed* to reduce the peak

Source: NDHS 2017, LFS 2019, LTO 2019, DOTR 2020, LTFRB 2020, JICA (2015), staff computations *Based on study by the UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team.

Demographic restricted from going out PH population allowed to go out (in millions) Total Work Study Buy Public transpo C1 Age 0 to 20 (school age) 62.0 36.4 2.6 32.2 C2 Age 60 and up 99.1 39.8 5.9 51.0 C3 Age 21 to 59 with comorbid/risk factors 107.6 74.2 3.3 55.5 C4 Age 21 to 59 living with 60 and up 95.1 36.4 5.9 48.7 C5 Age 21 to 59 living with comorbid 102.9 70.9 3.2 53.0 C6 All C1 to C5 36.1 25.2 1.1 18.7 C7 All C2 to C5 82.4 32.3 5.0 42.3

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• IV. Decision

based on essential sectors

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Option to modify ECQ in moderate to high risk areas

By sector (PSIC) Special analysis:

• a. Malls
• b. Construction
• c. By occupation risk

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Consider the following for 100% opening:

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a. Agriculture, fishery, forestry b. Food manufacturing and its entire supply chain (including ink, packaging, raw materials, etc) c. Food retail (supermarket, market, resto for takeout and delivery only) d. Healthcare (hospitals, clinics, drugstores) e. Logistics f. Water g. Energy h. Internet, telecomms i. Media Subject to minimum health standards

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Option to modify ECQ in moderate to high risk area: by industry

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Consider the following for 50 to 100% opening:

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a. Other manufacturing, like electronics and exports b. E-commerce and delivery for essential and non- essential items c. Repair and maintenance services d. Housing and office services

Subject to minimum health standards

Option to modify ECQ in moderate to high risk area: by industry

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Consider the following for 50% on site work and 50% work from home:

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a. Financial services b. BPO c. Other non-leisure wholesale and retail trade d. Other non-leisure services

Subject to minimum health standards

Option to modify ECQ in moderate to high risk area: by industry

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a. Schools (consider late opening) except online learning b. Leisure, amusement, gaming, fitness c. “Kid” industry d. Tourism e. All gatherings, including religious, conferences, etc. f. Malls g. Construction (for further discussion). Option to modify ECQ in moderate to high risk area: by industry

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Subject to minimum health standards

Consider for 100% closure (since the main transmitters are children age 0 to 20):

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Malls as mini-economy: Proposal on mall operations

Malls in PH Region Count

NCR 331 CAR 12 I 18 II 30 III 52 IV 121 V 50 VI 66 VII 67 VIII 12 IX 12 X 27 XI 32 XII 18

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BARMM 6 TOTAL 865

1. Allow certain sections of malls to open a. Supermarkets (10%*) b. Drugstores (1%*) c. Banks** d. Laundry service** e. Restaurants (10%*) for takeout

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f. Hardware** 2. Allow only the following to enter a. Age 21 to 59 (72% of mall-goers) with ID and not looking sickly b. Mandatory temperature check c. Mandatory wearing of masks d. Mandatory alcohol use e. Limit the number of people inside the mall

• 3. Impose health standards

a. To avoid lingering, increase aircon temperature to 26 degrees and remove free wifi b. In Germany, stores of up to 800 square meters will be allowed to

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dealers and bookstores, under strict health standards. Proposals to revise this to one customer for every 100 square meters of store space have been raised. c. In Indonesia, disinfectant chambers in front of some mall entrances were installed. d. Mall operators or employers to provide masks and gloves to employees.

*Represents sector share in 1 mall chain **Services and nonfood represent 5% each Source: News and business reports

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Construction (BBB, infrastructure)

Trade off between allowing to operate or remain closed.

• a. Pro: less traffic, can use this positive externality to speed up BBB
• b. Con: risk of virus transmission (e.g., most workers are

‘migrants’) Other countries define essential projects in the construction sector, which Philippines can adopt.

• a. Sewage, water works, health facilities, digital works

Selected priority infra projects can be allowed to operate earlier subject to minimum health standards, physical distancing, and barracks for workers.

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Decision to manage the use of public transport