Models of Host Immune Response, and the(co)Evolution of Virulence: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Models of Host Immune Response, and the(co)Evolution of Virulence: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Models of Host Immune Response, and the(co)Evolution of Virulence: limited and preliminary extensions on Gilchrist-Sasaki Andrea Pugliese Dept. of Mathematics, Univ. of Trento DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006


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SLIDE 1

Models of Host Immune Response, and the(co)Evolution of Virulence: limited and preliminary extensions on Gilchrist-Sasaki

Andrea Pugliese

  • Dept. of Mathematics, Univ. of Trento

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.1/26

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SLIDE 2

Introduction

Gilchrist and Sasaki (2002) introduced a very nice framework to discuss co-evolution of virulence and resistance without invoking hypothetical trade-offs. Aspects I aimed at addressing:

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.2/26

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SLIDE 3

Introduction

Gilchrist and Sasaki (2002) introduced a very nice framework to discuss co-evolution of virulence and resistance without invoking hypothetical trade-offs. Aspects I aimed at addressing: (Slightly) more complex models of virus–immune system interactions not limited to short-term after infection.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.2/26

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SLIDE 4

Introduction

Gilchrist and Sasaki (2002) introduced a very nice framework to discuss co-evolution of virulence and resistance without invoking hypothetical trade-offs. Aspects I aimed at addressing: (Slightly) more complex models of virus–immune system interactions not limited to short-term after infection. Reinfection of already infected hosts (to deal with issues like super-infection.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.2/26

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SLIDE 5

Introduction

Gilchrist and Sasaki (2002) introduced a very nice framework to discuss co-evolution of virulence and resistance without invoking hypothetical trade-offs. Aspects I aimed at addressing: (Slightly) more complex models of virus–immune system interactions not limited to short-term after infection. Reinfection of already infected hosts (to deal with issues like super-infection. Variability of hosts (not genetically determined).

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.2/26

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SLIDE 6

Models for virus-immune system, 1

P pathogen load I specific immunity level

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = aIP

(Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002) with I(0) = I0 > 0, P(0) = P0 > 0.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.3/26

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SLIDE 7

Models for virus-immune system, 1

P pathogen load I specific immunity level

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = aIP

(Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002) with I(0) = I0 > 0, P(0) = P0 > 0. Infection grows (if r > cI0) and then is cleared by immune system. Some computations are easier since it is Kermack-McKendrick model disguised. Hence one obtains

P = Φ(I) := r a log(I) − I + I0 + P0.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.3/26

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SLIDE 8

Models for virus-immune system, 2

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = aIP

(Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002)

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.4/26

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SLIDE 9

Models for virus-immune system, 2

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = aIP

(Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002)

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = βI

(André-Gandon, 2006)

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.4/26

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SLIDE 10

Models for virus-immune system, 2

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = aIP

(Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002)

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = βI

(André-Gandon, 2006) Equations can be solved to have

P(t) = P0 exp

  • rt + cI0

β (1 − eβt)

  • .

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.4/26

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SLIDE 11

Models for virus-immune system, 3

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = aIP

(Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002)

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.5/26

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SLIDE 12

Models for virus-immune system, 3

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = aIP

(Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002)

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = βI

(André-Gandon, 2006) All infections are eventually cleared.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.5/26

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SLIDE 13

Models for virus-immune system, 3

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = aIP

(Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002)

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = βI

(André-Gandon, 2006) All infections are eventually cleared.

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = kP − δI + h

(Mohtashemi-Levins, 2002)

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.5/26

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SLIDE 14

Models for virus-immune system, 3

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = aIP

(Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002)

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = βI

(André-Gandon, 2006) All infections are eventually cleared.

  • P ′

= rP − cIP I′ = kP − δI + h

(Mohtashemi-Levins, 2002) If an infection can occur (r > ch

δ ), then system always goes

to an equilibrium, generally after several infection cycles.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.5/26

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SLIDE 15

Proposed model for within-host dynamics

Several other models in Nowak-May (2002) share this feature: If an infection is possible, it is never cleared completely (at least, in the deterministic model).

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.6/26

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Proposed model for within-host dynamics

Several other models in Nowak-May (2002) share this feature: If an infection is possible, it is never cleared completely (at least, in the deterministic model). An extension with functional response in immune cells-virus interaction:

  • P ′

= rP −

cI 1+kcP P − m 1+kmP P

I′ =

aP 1+kaP I − δI + h

m level (activity) of aspecific immunity. kc and km modulate functional response. ka allows for different rules of immune response.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.6/26

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Proposed model for within-host dynamics

Several other models in Nowak-May (2002) share this feature: If an infection is possible, it is never cleared completely (at least, in the deterministic model). An extension with functional response in immune cells-virus interaction:

  • P ′

= rP −

cI 1+kcP P − m 1+kmP P

I′ =

aP 1+kaP I − δI + h

m level (activity) of aspecific immunity. kc and km modulate functional response. ka allows for different rules of immune response.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.6/26

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Behaviour of within-host model

If r small, no internal equilibria. Infection is cleared completely.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.7/26

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SLIDE 19

Behaviour of within-host model

If r small, no internal equilibria. Infection is cleared completely.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.7/26

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SLIDE 20

Behaviour of within-host model

If r small, no internal equilibria. Infection is cleared completely.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.8/26

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SLIDE 21

Behaviour of within-host model

If r small, no internal equilibria. Infection is cleared completely. If r intermediate, 2 internal equilibria. Infection is either cleared, or it goes to equilibrium (or limit cycle).

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.8/26

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SLIDE 22

Behaviour of within-host model

If r small, no internal equilibria. Infection is cleared completely. If r intermediate, 2 internal equilibria. Infection is either cleared, or it goes to equilibrium (or limit cycle).

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.8/26

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SLIDE 23

Behaviour of within-host model

If r small, no internal equilibria. Infection is cleared completely.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.9/26

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SLIDE 24

Behaviour of within-host model

If r small, no internal equilibria. Infection is cleared completely. If r intermediate, 2 internal equilibria. Infection is either cleared, or it goes to equilibrium (or limit cycle).

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.9/26

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SLIDE 25

Behaviour of within-host model

If r small, no internal equilibria. Infection is cleared completely. If r intermediate, 2 internal equilibria. Infection is either cleared, or it goes to equilibrium (or limit cycle). If r large (r > m + ch/δ), 1 internal equilibrium. Infection always goes to equilibrium (or limit cycle).

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.9/26

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SLIDE 26

Behaviour of within-host model

If r small, no internal equilibria. Infection is cleared completely. If r intermediate, 2 internal equilibria. Infection is either cleared, or it goes to equilibrium (or limit cycle). If r large (r > m + ch/δ), 1 internal equilibrium. Infection always goes to equilibrium (or limit cycle).

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.9/26

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SLIDE 27

Behaviour of within-host model

If r small, no internal equilibria. Infection is cleared completely.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.10/26

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SLIDE 28

Behaviour of within-host model

If r small, no internal equilibria. Infection is cleared completely. If r intermediate, 2 internal equilibria. Infection is either cleared, or it goes to equilibrium (or limit cycle).

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.10/26

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SLIDE 29

Behaviour of within-host model

If r small, no internal equilibria. Infection is cleared completely. If r intermediate, 2 internal equilibria. Infection is either cleared, or it goes to equilibrium (or limit cycle). If r large (r > m + ch/δ), 1 internal equilibrium. Infection always goes to equilibrium (or limit cycle).

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.10/26

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SLIDE 30

Behaviour of within-host model

If r small, no internal equilibria. Infection is cleared completely. If r intermediate, 2 internal equilibria. Infection is either cleared, or it goes to equilibrium (or limit cycle). If r large (r > m + ch/δ), 1 internal equilibrium. Infection always goes to equilibrium (or limit cycle). Moreover, for r + δ > a/ka, solutions may diverge to infinity (immune system does not control infection)

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.10/26

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Question

Into which qualitative regime will the parameters (especially the replication rate r) evolve?

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.11/26

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Epidemic dynamics

i(t, P, I) infectives of immune-level I and pathogen load P S susceptibles

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.12/26

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Epidemic dynamics

i(t, P, I) infectives of immune-level I and pathogen load P S susceptibles ∂ ∂ti(t, P, I) + ∂ ∂P ( f(P, I) i(t, P, I)) + ∂ ∂I ( g(P, I) i(t, P, I)) = −(µ + α(P, I))i(t, P, I)

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.12/26

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SLIDE 34

Epidemic dynamics

i(t, P, I) infectives of immune-level I and pathogen load P S susceptibles ∂ ∂ti(t, P, I) + ∂ ∂P ( f(P, I) i(t, P, I)) + ∂ ∂I ( g(P, I) i(t, P, I)) = −(µ + α(P, I))i(t, P, I)

where

P ′ = f(P, I)

and

I′ = g(P, I)

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.12/26

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Epidemic dynamics

i(t, P, I) infectives of immune-level I and pathogen load P S susceptibles ∂ ∂ti(t, P, I) + ∂ ∂P ( f(P, I) i(t, P, I)) + ∂ ∂I ( g(P, I) i(t, P, I)) = −(µ + α(P, I))i(t, P, I) α disease-induced mortality

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.12/26

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SLIDE 36

Epidemic dynamics

i(t, P, I) infectives of immune-level I and pathogen load P S susceptibles ∂ ∂ti + ∂ ∂P (fi) + ∂ ∂I (gi) = −(µ + α(P, I))i(t, P, I)

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.13/26

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SLIDE 37

Epidemic dynamics

i(t, P, I) infectives of immune-level I and pathogen load P S susceptibles ∂ ∂ti + ∂ ∂P (fi) + ∂ ∂I (gi) = −(µ + α(P, I))i(t, P, I)

and

S′(t) = Λ − (µ + λ(t))S(t) aP0i(t, 1) = λ(t)S(t) λ(t) = β

  • Pi(t, P, I) dP dI

α(P, I) = k1aIP + k2rP

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.13/26

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SLIDE 38

Epidemic dynamics

i(t, P, I) infectives of immune-level I and pathogen load P S susceptibles ∂ ∂ti + ∂ ∂P (fi) + ∂ ∂I (gi) = −(µ + α(P, I))i(t, P, I) λ infection rate α disease-induced mortality S′(t) = Λ − (µ + λ(t))S(t) aP0i(t, 1) = λ(t)S(t) λ(t) = β

  • Pi(t, P, I) dP dI

α(P, I) = k1aIP + k2rP

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.13/26

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SLIDE 39

Age-of-infection setting

Since P and I are deterministic function P(θ), I(θ) of time since infection, one can rewrite it as

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.14/26

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SLIDE 40

Age-of-infection setting

Since P and I are deterministic function P(θ), I(θ) of time since infection, one can rewrite it as

        

∂ ∂tu(t, θ) + ∂ ∂θu(t, θ)

= −(µ + α(P(θ), I(θ))u(t, θ) u(t, 0) = λ(t)S(t) λ(t) = β ∞

0 P(θ)u(t, θ) dθ

S′(t) = Λ − (µ + λ(t))S(t)

with u(t, θ) related to i(t, P(θ), B(θ))

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.14/26

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SLIDE 41

Age-of-infection setting

Since P and I are deterministic function P(θ), I(θ) of time since infection, one can rewrite it as

        

∂ ∂tu(t, θ) + ∂ ∂θu(t, θ)

= −(µ + α(P(θ), I(θ))u(t, θ) u(t, 0) = λ(t)S(t) λ(t) = β ∞

0 P(θ)u(t, θ) dθ

S′(t) = Λ − (µ + λ(t))S(t)

with u(t, θ) related to i(t, P(θ), B(θ)) This system is in the class considered by Thieme and Castillo-Chavez for AIDS.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.14/26

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SLIDE 42

R0

The behaviour of the system is mainly determined by R0:

R0 =

Λ µ

β ∞ P(θ) × exp

  • −(µθ + k1

θ

  • k1aI(s)P(s) + k2rP(s) ds
  • dθ.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.15/26

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SLIDE 43

R0

The behaviour of the system is mainly determined by R0:

R0 =

Λ µ

β ∞ P(θ) × exp

  • −(µθ + k1

θ

0 k1aI(s)P(s) + k2rP(s) ds

  • dθ.

Pathogen level at time θ since infection

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.15/26

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SLIDE 44

R0

The behaviour of the system is mainly determined by R0:

R0 =

Λ µ

β ∞ P(θ) × exp

  • −(µθ + k1

θ

0 k1aI(s)P(s) + k2rP(s) ds

  • dθ.

Survival probability to time θ

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.15/26

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SLIDE 45

R0

The behaviour of the system is mainly determined by R0:

R0 =

Λ µ

β ∞ P(θ) × exp

  • −(µθ + k1

θ

0 k1aI(s)P(s) + k2rP(s) ds

  • dθ.

Population at disease-free equilibrium

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.15/26

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SLIDE 46

R0

The behaviour of the system is mainly determined by R0:

R0 =

Λ µ

β ∞ P(θ) × exp

  • −(µθ + k1

θ

0 k1aI(s)P(s) + k2rP(s) ds

  • dθ.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.15/26

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SLIDE 47
  • R0. II

If R0 < 1, disease-free equilibrium is globally stable

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.16/26

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SLIDE 48
  • R0. II

If R0 < 1, disease-free equilibrium is globally stable If R0 > 1, there exists a unique positive equilibrium:

     ¯ S =

Λ µR0

¯ λ = µ(R0 − 1) ¯ u(θ) = ¯ λ ¯ S . . .

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.16/26

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SLIDE 49
  • R0. II

If R0 < 1, disease-free equilibrium is globally stable If R0 > 1, there exists a unique positive equilibrium:

     ¯ S =

Λ µR0

¯ λ = µ(R0 − 1) ¯ u(θ) = ¯ λ ¯ S . . .

If two strains compete, with complete cross-immunity, the strain with the highest R0 outcompetes the other (Bremermann-Thieme, 1989).

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.16/26

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SLIDE 50

Graph of R0

20 40 60 80 100 120 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 R0 survival r R0 GS k1=k2=1.e-2 R0 survival

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.17/26

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SLIDE 51

Graph of R0

20 40 60 80 100 120 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 R0 survival r R0 GS k1=k2=1.e-2 R0 survival

Maximum at an intermediate r. All graphs look like this (no proof!).

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.17/26

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SLIDE 52

Optimal r for fixed a

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 r survival a model GS k1= k2=1e-2

  • ptimal r

survival

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.18/26

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SLIDE 53

Optimal r for fixed a

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 r survival a model GS k1= k2=1e-2

  • ptimal r

survival

If host evolution of a is slower than pathogen’s, move along the red curve to the maximum of the blue.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.18/26

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SLIDE 54

Lower costs of immune response

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 20 40 60 80 100 r survival a model GS k1= 1.e-6 k2=1.e-4

  • ptimal r

survival

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.19/26

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SLIDE 55

Lower costs of immune response

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 20 40 60 80 100 r survival a model GS k1= 1.e-6 k2=1.e-4

  • ptimal r

survival

Higher survival, but still a rather lethal infection.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.19/26

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SLIDE 56

Effect of innate immunity

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 20 40 60 80 100 r survival a model M=5 k1= 1.e-6 k2=1e-4

  • ptimal r

survival

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.20/26

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SLIDE 57

Effect of innate immunity

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 20 40 60 80 100 r survival a model M=5 k1= 1.e-6 k2=1e-4

  • ptimal r

survival

Survival lower than without.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.20/26

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SLIDE 58

Host variability and pathogen evolution

Assume the values of a in the host population follow some distribution (with average 1):

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.21/26

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SLIDE 59

Host variability and pathogen evolution

Assume the values of a in the host population follow some distribution (with average 1):

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 R0 survival r R0 with var. a k1= k2=1.e-2 R0 survival

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.21/26

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SLIDE 60

Host variability and pathogen evolution

Assume the values of a in the host population follow some distribution (with average 1):

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 R0 survival r R0 with var. a k1= k2=1.e-2 R0 survival

How does it compare with fixed a?

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.21/26

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SLIDE 61

Comparison of fixed vs. distributed a

50 100 150 200 250 300 0.1 1 10 100 1000 R0 survival r R0 fixed vs. variable a k1=1.e-6 k2=1.e-4 R0 a var. survival a var. R0 fixed a survival fixed a

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.22/26

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SLIDE 62

Comparison of fixed vs. distributed a

50 100 150 200 250 300 0.1 1 10 100 1000 R0 survival r R0 fixed vs. variable a k1=1.e-6 k2=1.e-4 R0 a var. survival a var. R0 fixed a survival fixed a

Selection for much lower r

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.22/26

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SLIDE 63

Adding innate immunity

50 100 150 200 250 0.1 1 10 100 1000 R0 survival r R0 fixed vs. variable a (M=5) k1=1.e-6 k2=1.e-4 R0 a var. survival a var. R0 fixed a survival fixed a

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.23/26

slide-64
SLIDE 64

Adding innate immunity

50 100 150 200 250 0.1 1 10 100 1000 R0 survival r R0 fixed vs. variable a (M=5) k1=1.e-6 k2=1.e-4 R0 a var. survival a var. R0 fixed a survival fixed a

Similar picture

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.23/26

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SLIDE 65

Host variation, and pathogen virulence

Should variation in host immunity levels select for lower virulence? why?

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.24/26

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SLIDE 66

Host variation, and pathogen virulence

Should variation in host immunity levels select for lower virulence? why?

100 200 300 400 500 600 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 R0 survival r R0 for different a (k1= k2=1.e-2) R0 a=0.1 survival a=0.1 R0 fixed a survival fixed a R0 a=5 survival a=5

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.24/26

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SLIDE 67

Conclusions

The nested approach (Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002) provides a very nice framework. Some complications can be introduced, since one has to resort to numericals, anyway.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.25/26

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SLIDE 68

Conclusions

The nested approach (Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002) provides a very nice framework. Some complications can be introduced, since one has to resort to numericals, anyway. It seems that pathogen selection on replication rate always brings to the level in which host survivorship is affected (and in the parameter region where the within-host dynamics has one positive equilibrium).

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.25/26

slide-69
SLIDE 69

Conclusions

The nested approach (Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002) provides a very nice framework. Some complications can be introduced, since one has to resort to numericals, anyway. It seems that pathogen selection on replication rate always brings to the level in which host survivorship is affected (and in the parameter region where the within-host dynamics has one positive equilibrium). Host variability (which could be due to age, nutritional status, . . . ) seems always to select for lower pathogen

  • virulence. What does that mean for host evolution?

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.25/26

slide-70
SLIDE 70

Conclusions

The nested approach (Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002) provides a very nice framework. Some complications can be introduced, since one has to resort to numericals, anyway. It seems that pathogen selection on replication rate always brings to the level in which host survivorship is affected (and in the parameter region where the within-host dynamics has one positive equilibrium). Host variability (which could be due to age, nutritional status, . . . ) seems always to select for lower pathogen

  • virulence. What does that mean for host evolution?

Modelling superinfection within this framework is rather complex, and perhaps pointless. There may be better ways of tackling within-host competition.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.25/26

slide-71
SLIDE 71

Conclusions

The nested approach (Gilchrist-Sasaki, 2002) provides a very nice framework. Some complications can be introduced, since one has to resort to numericals, anyway. It seems that pathogen selection on replication rate always brings to the level in which host survivorship is affected (and in the parameter region where the within-host dynamics has one positive equilibrium). Host variability (which could be due to age, nutritional status, . . . ) seems always to select for lower pathogen

  • virulence. What does that mean for host evolution?

Modelling superinfection within this framework is rather complex, and perhaps pointless. There may be better ways of tackling within-host competition.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.25/26

slide-72
SLIDE 72

Thanks

The within-host model was set up and analysed with Alberto Gandolfi (IASI - Roma). Thanks to DIMACS for providing the support and the smooth organization for this workshop... ... and to you for your attention.

DIMACS workshop on Host-Parasite Coevolution, October 9-11 2006 – p.26/26