Modelling long- term energy pathways with high shares of variable - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modelling long- term energy pathways with high shares of variable renewable energy sources

James Price, Marianne Zeyringer based on work with Birgit Fais and Ed Sharp

• The UK TIMES (UKTM) model is a linear optimization bottom-up

technology-rich energy system model

• Runs from 2010 to 2050
• 16 time slices: 4 seasons and 4 intraday (day, evening, late evening,

night)

• One region representing the whole of the UK
• VRE represented as technologies with low availability factors with

limited variability between time slices

UKTM

VRE and demand vary in time and space

• Not sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to represent

1. Renewable generation 2. Demand 3. Flexible generation 4. Storage 5. Transmission extension + Their interaction

• Modeling of single weather years does not capture the full variability of weather conditions

How well does UKTM model the integration of variable renewable energy sources?

Representation of variable renewable energy technologies (VRE) in UKTM

• High spatial and temporal resolution electricity system model highRES:
• Complements UKTM to find cost-effective, flexible and robust low carbon electricity

pathways

• Integration options are network reinforcement (spatial diversification), energy

storage, flexible generation

• Objective function: minimise power system costs to meet hourly demand

subject to constraints

• Technical constraints: ramping, minimum & maximum generation
• Storage constraints
• Transmission constraints
• Output: Total system costs, electricity price, power plants usage rates,

emissions, renewable curtailment, location of generations and integration

• ptions
• Strong point: good representation of VRE

hig ighRES

• VRE generation at grid level (0.5° x

0.5° or about 50km x35 km)

• VRE aggregated to model zones
• Demand- Supply balancing at zonal

level

hig ighRES

• VRE generation at grid level
• Wind energy: hourly data from NCEP-

CFSR climate reanalysis model

• Solar energy: hourly value from PV-

GIS

• Resource specific constraints to

constrain the potential

hig ighRES

• Demand Supply Matching at Zonal

Level

• Zones and demand shares based on

National Grid

• Simplified grid connecting the zones

and enabling demand-supply balancing between zones

hig ighRES

UKTM- highRES linkage

UKTM model

Preprocessing of areas suitable for PV, onshore and

• ffshore wind development

Hourly time series for wind and solar energy for each grid cell of 0.50 x0.50 for 2007- 2010 Capacities for conventional generation for 2050 Capacities for renewable generation for 2050 Capacities for flexible generation and storage for 2050 Total annual electricity demand for 2050

highRES model

Hourly electricity demand from Nationalgrid for 2007-2010 Hourly electricity demand for 2050 Location of wind and PV Capacities and location of transmission grid extension, flexible generation and storage Total system costs, emissions, electricity price, power plant usages, curtailment Transmission capacities for 2015 from Nationalgrid

UKTM- hig ighRES

UKTM NO CCS scenario

Solar 44.45 GW Wind offshore 38.83 GW Wind onshore 32.48 GW Nuclear 34.2 Biomass 6.8 GW Geothermal 0.5 GW Hydro 1.64 GW Flexible generation: 58.29 GW Storage: 2.54 GW

24 highRES runs:

• 1. All capacities fixed to UKTM values
• 2. Flexible generation free
• 3. Storage free
• 4. Flexible generation and storage free
• 5. Transmission free
• 6. All flexible options free

for 2007- 2010, one year at a time

Reduction in annual total system costs for 2009 compared to a run with UKTM fixed capacities

Results

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Flexible generation Storage Flexible generation and storage Transmission Flexible generation, storage and transmission line extension

%

Installed capacity of flexible generation, all other capacities fixed to UKTM values

Results

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 UKTM 2007 highRES 2008 highRES 2009 highRES 2010 highRES MW

Installed capacity of storage, all other capacities fixed to UKTM values

Results

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 UKTM 2007 highRES 2008 highRES 2009 highRES 2010 highRES MW

Installed capacity of flexible generation and storage, everything else fixed

Results

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 UKTM 2007 highRES 2008 highRES 2009 highRES 2010 highRES MW Storage Flexible Generation

highRES optimises all VRE integration options (flexible generation, storage, transmission)

Results

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 2007 highRES 2008 highRES 2009 highRES 2010 highRES

fractional change relative to UKTM and current grid capacities

Storage Flexible generation Transmission

Reduction in curtailment for 2007 compared to the to the UKTM fixed capacity run

Results

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Flexible generation Storage Flexible generation and storage Transmission extension All integration

• ptions

%

• UKTM overestimates flexible generation and underestimates storage
• Large benefits of combining different integration options
• Using different weather years is important
• Grid extension is the most cost- effective integration option allowing to

take advantage of the different output and timing of production of VRE

Conclusions

• Run with more weather years
• Improve demand representation
• Include interconnection and DSR
• Feedback to UTKM to improve representation of VRE

Future work

Marianne Zeyringer m.zeyringer@ucl.ac.uk

Thank you !