Modelling and Simulation and Wargaming to support concept - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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London – IT2EC 2020, 28th-30th April

Modelling and Simulation and Wargaming to support concept development of Autonomous Systems in Harbour Protection

Lucia Gazzaneo David Solarna Alberto Tremori Arnau Carrera Viñas Pilar Caamaño Sobrino Wayne Buck

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London – IT2EC 2020, 28th-30th April

CMRE is an established, world-class NATO scientific research and experimentation facility located in La Spezia (ITA).

Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation

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Modelling and Simulation (M&S) at CMRE

Support the different Programmes at the Centre and external partners and investigate innovative M&S approaches and solutions.

Research & Technology (mainly maritime)

Adoption of M&S in the different phases of the life cycle of autonomous/manned systems and C2.

Consultancy & Analysis (multi-domain)

Identification and definition of future trends and requirements for M&S in NATO and Nations.

Augmented-Virtual Reality Standards & Interoperability Live, Virtual and Constructive Simulation Serious Gaming

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• Introduction
• Proposal
• Application sample: Harbour Protection
• Virtual Reality and autonomous systems to

enhance situational and spatial awareness

• Wargaming enhanced by M&S
• Conclusions and way ahead

Agenda

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• Potential and benefits of the use of autonomous systems in challenging

missions are well recognised by the operational community.

• The perception of a risk when delegating tasks to complex and non-

transparent systems is slowing down their adoption and integration into military application.

• Identified cultural barriers and obstacles:

– Bias caused by existing conceptual knowledge could lead to the development of systems not maximizing their impact. – Lack of understanding of the system and the logic of its behaviour and the decisions taken. – Lack of standardized V&V processes limiting the adaptability of the

• perational concepts.

Introduction

Urgent need of building trust in disrupting and emerging technologies

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Fostering on methodologies that reward experimentation, prototyping and iterative processes.

Promoting alternative, critical and creating thinking in

• perational planning.

Proposal

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• Situational Awareness: adoption of autonomous

systems

• Countering underwater maritime IED (M-IED)
• Tools for supporting underwater autonomous systems

employment

• Operators: trust and training

Application example: Harbour Protection

Doctrine, Organization, Training, Material, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities, Interoperability NATO HQ Defence Against Terrorism Programme of Work

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Obj1 Concept Development:

• define and analyse the current gaps on harbour protection by employing analytical (e.g. simulation based

experimentations) and qualitative methodologies (e.g. wargaming sessions) about:

– Situational and Spatial awareness – M-IED – Adoption of Autonomous Systems – Visualization of Information for operational support and training

Obj2 Research and Technology (R&T)

• Create and test a prototype

– Collection of information – Processing of Raw Data – Visualization and Manipulation of information (VR/AR)

Obj3 Community of Interest

• Collect and connect expertise (operational, scientific and industrial) on the topics

Obj4 R&T Demonstration

• Demonstrate the concept and the prototype

Obj5 Innovative Elicitation Methodologies*

• Implement innovative methodologies for the elicitation of the information and the assessment of the assumptions
• n the operational concepts, on the adoption of technological solutions

Objectives

*New objective emerged from the on-going activities

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Virtual Reality and autonomous systems to enhance situational and spatial awareness

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 Two factors to consider:

• The hostility of the underwater environment (e.g. scarce

visibility due to poor and unnatural lighting, turbidity and sea clutter)

• The limitations of the sensors mounted on the vehicles (e.g.

restricted communication bandwidth and latency)  Both affect the quality of the data collected and reduce the awareness of the operators on the performance of the system

What is limiting the adoption of UAVs?

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The pillars of the technological solution

 It fuses and processes the raw data coming from different sensors to build 3D models that can be visualized by using VR/AR

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Usage for MCM and M-IED Scenarios

Multi-Phase Scenario

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How to use the technological solution: the M-IED case

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Wargaming enhanced by Modelling and Simulation

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 Wargaming to:

• Draw out the different skills of the players to analyse the M-IED threat
• Develop a narrative able to capture the elements of the problem
• Foster reasoning, creative thinking and exploration in a safe-to-fail

manner

• Build a stimulating environment where to challenge ideas and

knowledge

 VR contents to:

• Immerse players in a more realistic and engaging environment
• Sustain and facilitate the analytical process

 Computer-assisted Simulations to:

• Visualize and test the plans
• Provide players wit quantitative data for a more objective analysis of

the problem

• Facilitate the discussion

Characteristics of the methodology

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 Militaries, technicians, scientists and port authorities  Skills: knowledge of the maritime sector, harbour terminals and terrorism domain; knowledge of explosives (including IEDs and M-IEDs); knowledge of UAVs  Soft skills: creative thinking, analytical skills, willingness to participate to role play sessions

The players: Red vs Blue

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Wargaming phases

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Phase 1: Concept Development

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 Initial briefing to introduce players to the objectives of the game, the background and the methodology

Step I - Introduction

Red Team objective

• Design and develop a

UWIED plan and execute deployment Blue Team objective

• Design and develop a plan

and execute Autonomous Systems Based Harbour Protection

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Review and validate the collection

• f

assumptions made by the designers to address the problem (Key Assumption Check Method) Use of VR contents (e.g. 3D model

• f

the ports, immersive environment, multiple layers of data and information that can be used to customize and interact with the scene)

Step II – Analysis

Selection of the targets Operational context

Characteristics of the M- IEDs Requirements of the Autonomous Systems

Patrolling strategy Performance measures

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Step III – CoA development

 The players will use the valid assumptions to develop a feasible course of action.

• The Red Players will use them to plan and execute an M-

IED event to attack a port.

• The Blue Players will use the refined assumptions to plan

and execute Autonomous Systems Based Harbour protection

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Phase 2: Final Assessment

 Analytical simulations are used to test and assess the plans, providing players with quantitative data and promoting discussion among the players.

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 Investigations on the combined use of Wargaming and computer-based M&S to support the development

• f
• perational concepts and the adoption of innovative and

disruptive technologies.  The methodology is being applied to Harbour Protection and the use of Underwater Autonomous Systems.

• CMRE is developing a prototype for the reconstruction of a synthetic

environment from raw data collected by UAVs to enhance situational and spatial awareness.

• A wargame supported by M&S has been conducted to elicit the

information required to draft the preliminary concept and demonstrate it along with the prototype under development.

Conclusions and way ahead

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Questions?

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• Situational Awareness: adoption of

autonomous systems

• Countering underwater maritime IED (M-IED)
• Tools for supporting underwater autonomous

systems employment

• Operators: trust and training

Background and Overview

Doctrine, Organization, Training, Material, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities, Interoperability

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Port terminals, harbors and near-shore infrastructures play a strategic role for the economy of a country A growing threat to these infrastructures is related to the use of underwater M-IEDs MIEDs are mainly disposed by divers and marine mammals, with quite an impact in terms of costs and health risks For this reason, there is an increasing interest in supporting their operations with Unmanned Underwater Vehicles

Introduction

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Wargaming Modelling & Simulation

Qualitative Matrix Games Seminar Games Red Teaming Quantitative COA Wargame Computer-Assisted Analytical Wargame

Observations Human-in-the-loop Software-in-the-loop Visualization and data

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How to overcome this cultural barrier?

Concept of use of Autonomous Systems for improved situational and spatial awareness in the underwater domain Technological solution Wargaming session Data and information Proof of concept Prototype