Modelling and Simulation and Wargaming to support concept development - - PDF document

IT2EC 2020 IT2EC Extended Abstract Template Presentation/Panel

Modelling and Simulation and Wargaming to support concept development of Autonomous Systems in Harbour Protection

Lucia Gazzaneo1, David Solarna2, Alberto Tremori3, Arnau Carrera Viñas4, Pilar Caamaño Sobrino5, Wayne Buck6

1PhD student, Modeling & Simulation Center – Laboratory of Enterprise Solutions (DIMEG, UNICAL), Rende, Italy 2 PhD student, Department of Electrical, Electronic, Telecommunications Eng. and Naval Architecture (DITEN) University of

Genova, Genova, Italy

3,4,5 PhD, NATO STO Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation, La Spezia, Italy 6 NATO HQ Supreme Allied Command Transformation, Norfolk, USA

Abstract — NATO STO CMRE (Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation) is investigating the combined use of analytical methodologies (e.g., simulation-based experimentation), together with qualitative methods (e.g., wargaming), to support the development of operational concepts and the adoption of innovative and disruptive technologies in support of military operations. This paper presents an application of this methodology to investigate harbour protection with autonomous systems while considering the specific threat of underwater maritime improvised explosive devices (M-IED).

1 Introduction

Emerging and disruptive technology, such as autonomous systems, have shown to be a controversial topic in the military domain. Their potential and benefits applied to challenging missions and environments are well recognised by the community. Nevertheless, commanders and operators perceive a risk that they may lose control of a situation due to the delegation of tasks to complex and non-transparent systems. This perception is slowing down its adoption and integration into military applications in particular in the underwater domain [1]. Studies published by defence organizations, such as NATO [1] or the United States Department of Defence [2], reveal that most of the barriers limiting their adoption fall into aspects related to trust and culture, and less on technological limitations. Some of the obstacles identified in those reviews are the following: bias caused by existing conceptual knowledge at the start of the process could lead to the development of systems that merely replicate existing systems and do not maximize their impact; lack of understanding of the developed systems and on the logic behind the algorithms driving the behaviour and decisions taken by these autonomous systems; or the lack of standardized and well documented Verification and Validation (V&V) processes limiting the adaptability of the operational concepts that can be developed. The military community has recognized the urgency needed to build trust in disrupting and emerging technologies by fostering methodologies that reward experimentation, prototyping and iterative processes. These processes aim to promote alternative, critical and creative thinking in operational planning. NATO has investigated in the use of wargaming to overcome the cultural challenges imposed by cross-disciplinary developments with the Disruptive Technology Assessment Game (DTAG) [3] [4]. However, and mainly because wargaming outcomes are prevalently qualitative, the community recognises weakness that make them unsuitable for sound and rigorous analytical studies. In this context, NATO is investigating how to address these weakness by developing a methodology that combines the use of qualitative wargaming with more immersive and quantitative methods such as experimentation supported by computer-based Modelling and Simulation [5] [6]. In this work, the authors propose the application of this methodology in the investigation of harbour protection and the use of underwater autonomous systems to counter the threat of underwater Maritime Improvised Explosive Devices (M-IEDs). The hostility of the underwater domain (e.g. scarce visibility due to poor and unnatural lighting, turbidity and sea clutter), along with the intrinsic limitation

• f the sensors mounted on the vehicle (e.g. restricted

communication bandwidth and latency if acoustic sensors are used), affects the quality of data collected and reduces the awareness of the operator of system performance. This project is being developed under the Defence Against Terrorism Programme of Work (DAT POW) of the NATO Headquarters to address conceptual, technical, networking and methodological aspects. Conceptually, and by the definition and analysis of current gaps on harbour protection, CMRE is collecting information that can be used to draft a concept of use for underwater autonomous systems to improve situational and spatial awareness. CMRE is also developing a prototype of a technological solution to support this operational concept [7]. This prototypical solution combines artificial intelligence and Augmented and Virtual Reality (AR/VR) to represent the multi-layer complexity of the underwater environment starting from the analysis of raw data collected by autonomous systems. From a networking perspective this

IT2EC 2020 IT2EC Extended Abstract Template Presentation/Panel project aims at creating a community of interest in the field

• f M-IED by connecting expertise on the topic.

In order to elicit the information required to draft the preliminary concept and demonstrate it along with the prototype under development, the authors envisioned the application of the aforementioned combined use of Wargaming and computer-based M&S. Put together, they can more effectively immerse stakeholders from each of the communities involved in the project (operational community, analysts, scientists and technicians). The remaining part of the article is organized as follows: Section 2 provides a description of the prototypical solution under development; Section 3 describes the methodology that has been designed to conduct the wargame; Section 4 draws conclusions and way ahead.

2 Virtual Reality and autonomous systems to enhance situational and spatial awareness

CMRE is designing and developing a prototypical solution to prove the technological concept of improved situational and spatial awareness in the underwater domain [7]. The main idea is to use the data coming from the surveys performed by autonomous systems to recreate a synthetic environment that is able to represent the reality under investigation and support the operators in performing the analysis of the data collected by the underwater autonomous systems. However, the adoption of advanced visualization techniques based on virtual and augmented reality is just the final outcome of a structured process that can be described as follows. Firstly, a set of input raw data

• btained through the persistent patrolling of the seafloor

performed by the autonomous systems is received and transformed into point clouds or other 3D representable

• data. Then, the obtained data is filtered to reduce noise and

fused in a common reference system. Finally, the resulting data is interpolated and combined into a structured mesh before being sent to the visualization tool to reconstruct the virtual environment. It is worth noting that the framework is characterized by a structure that is independent from input data sources. In

• ther words, it is able to receive data coming from different

autonomous systems equipped with different kinds of

• sensors. The data that will be included in the virtual

environment will be defined by the user (during the definition of the requirements) according to his needs. Based on data types, a dedicated module will select and use dedicated algorithms to translate the raw data in 3D

• bjects. In the same manner, after data filtration and

fusion, different techniques can be used to organize the disordered point cloud information into a surface. Moreover, the structure of the framework has been envisioned to store all the data resulting from the process, including raw data and any other data or metadata or information obtained during data processing, aiming to provide users with a complete picture of the situation under

• analysis. This allows the augmentation of the virtual scene

represented with additional information. For instance, beside the 3D models of the seabed and the targets, the user can decide to visualize a series of additional information layers, including the raw data collected by the sensors, geographic data (e.g. bathymetric lines, coast-line and port layout), environmental data (weather conditions, tidal and marine currents), ancillary data and the metadata resulted from a phase of the process. Furthermore, the operator can customize the scene as, for instance, highlighting suspicious objects, entering cinematic-related information, colouring any changes with respect to past data and information, and so on. The scene can be customized not only in terms of type and quantity of data displayed, but also in terms of appearance. For instance, the user can adjust settings according to the features contained in the data structure to highlight suspicious objects, compare historical data with current detections to highlight any change, and visualize the

• bjects considering the probability of errors.

M-IED missions have been identified as a possible use case of this framework. In this case, the data are collected by using high-frequency multi-beam echo-sounders. Following the extraction of point clouds from the data, it is necessary to reference the multiple data sets in a common reference system. To this end, a localization procedure that allows the geo-referencing of the points has been defined. Possible localization errors can be reduced by using registration techniques such as the iterative closest point algorithm and the SIFT feature-based

• registration. Then, points are interpolated, and a

triangulation procedure is used to reconstruct the surface. The results of all the points are collected into a data structure and sent to a visualization tool that will enable the virtual presence of the operator within the virtual

• environment. At this point, the operator is able to

appreciate the 3D model of the seabed and any targets, along with all the other calculated metadata that can be used to augment the information being displayed. For instance, the operator can use historical data to perform change detection and identify possible new objects lying

• n the seabed. Figure 1 shows a schematic view of the

reconstruction process described in this section. Figure 1. Multi format data for VR/AR Underwater M-IED Applications

IT2EC 2020 IT2EC Extended Abstract Template Presentation/Panel The visualization environment is meant to improve human maritime situational and spatial awareness, providing the user with a user-friendly visualization of the underwater data collected by autonomous systems and organizing the information collected in a unique multi-layer framework accessible by using any visualization tool. The framework aims also to provide training for the operators and act as a support tool for human personnel in operations based on autonomous systems. The author feel that the instrument will be able to reduce the cultural barrier between the military community and facilitate the adoption of new robotic systems operating in challenging environments, like the underwater domain, where direct human control is

• ften difficult.

3 Wargaming enhanced by M&S

As introduced in section 1, CMRE is investigating the combination of qualitative and analytical methodologies to support the development of operational concepts and the adoption of innovative and disruptive technologies in support of military operations. In order to support both the concept development efforts and the research and technology activities, CMRE M&S scientists have designed a wargame that combines analytical and qualitative methods, including the use of Wargaming together with Modelling & Simulation. On the qualitative side, the Wargaming has been selected because of its capability to foster reasoning, creative thinking and exploration of military topics in a safe-to-fail manner. On the analytical side, the use of Modelling and Simulation has been envisioned to provide quantitative data to the wargamers, enriching the description and the understanding of the situation under analysis. Since wargames require the involvement of a multiple players in a non-real situation, the use of simulation also aims to help suspend their inherent disbelief and immerse them into a more engaging experience than that provided by traditional games. The objective of the wargame is to establish the capability requirements needed to perform autonomous system- based harbour protection against the threat of underwater M-IEDs. To this end, the players will be divided into two teams, a Red and a Blue Team; they will be required to analyse and validate a set of preliminary assumptions formulated by the authors to frame the research problem. The analysis will be performed following the principles of the Key Assumptions Check (KAC) Method [8] for the purpose of identifying hidden relationships amongst the variables defined by the designers and ensure that important factors have been not excluded or taken for

• granted. Then, the assumptions will be refined to formulate

two plans, a Red M-IED plan to attack port, and a Blue Autonomous System-based plan to perform harbour

• protection. Both the validation of the assumptions and the

formulation of the plans will be supported by Virtual Reality contents. Finally, simulation will be used to test the plans defined by the players. It is worth noting that the game will not determine winners

• r losers. Rather, it will attempt to gain insights and

understanding of the situation being portrayed, developing knowledge valuable to help Nations dealing with the asymmetric threat of underwater M-IEDs. The wargame will be also used to proof the technological concept described in section 2. The following sections describes the process and the characteristics of the players with a greater level of detail. 3.1 Wargaming process As depicted in Figure 1, the wargame includes two phases, Concept development and Final Assessment. As far as the Concept Development phase is concerned, it encompasses three steps depicted in Figure 3:

• Step I – Introduction. During this phase the facilitator

will introduce players to the objectives of the wargames, describing both the initial background of the game and the wargame methodology (i.e. the KAC sustained by VR contents).

• Step II – Analysis. Following the principles of the

“Key Assumptions Check” method, each wargame team will be required to analyse and review a collection

• f assumptions made by the designers (and their logic),

in order to ensure that important factors are not excluded or taken for granted, and to uncover hidden relationships and links amongst them. Each team will analyse a subset of assumptions, referred as “Red Assumptions” and “Blue Assumptions” that will be respectively analysed by the Red Team and the Blue

• Team. Players will refine the lists of assumptions,

adding and deleting elements derived from new ideas, and thinking on the topic while being engaged in discussions.

• Step III – CoA development. For each assumption

recognized as valid, each team will have to contextualize it. The Red Players will use the input from the previous analysis and assumptions to plan and execute an M-IED event within a port, developing a feasible course of action, along with description of decision points and cause-effect relationships. The Blue Players will use the refined assumptions to plan

Figure 2. Wargaming Phases

IT2EC 2020 IT2EC Extended Abstract Template Presentation/Panel and execute Autonomous Systems Based Harbour

• protection. VR contents will be provided to support the

activities performed by the wargamers. The wargame will be supported by visualization tools based on the use of VR, with the primary objective of providing realism to the game and facilitate the analysis by providing a multi-layer representation of the information related to the mission scenario. Figure 4 shows a sample

• f VR environment, it shows the execution of a mission
• verlaying layers of information such as the actual

trajectory of the underwater vehicle (white and green lines) against the estimated one (purple line); or the position of targets (red triangles) against the positions of the contacts estimated by the underwater system (orange triangles). As far as the Final Assessment phase is concerned, the plans delineated by the players will be used to feed a computer assisted simulation, allowing to visualize the flow of the events and test the plans designed by the

• players. The use of computers assisted simulations will

also made possible to broaden the research span to better explore human variability and collect a set of statistically significant data and with greater confidence in findings than afforded by a single simulation run. This use of analytical simulation and the data generated is also intended to facilitate the discussion between the wargamers. The overall process related to Final Assessment is shown in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Final Assessment flowchart

3.2 Characteristics of the players The proposed harbour protection game will involve approximatively 12 players, including militaries, technicians, scientists and port authorities, that will be selected considering the experience and the expertise required for the operations associated with the game. Players will be divided into two cells, one (the Red Cell or the Red Team) mimicking the mind-set and the behaviour

• f insurgents and terroristic groups determined to target

harbours by using underwater M-IEDs, and the other (the Blue Cell or the Blue Team) mimicking the line of thoughts and the behaviour of the friendly forces in charge

• f performing Autonomous Systems based port protection.

As far as the required skills are concerned, both teams require a deep knowledge of the maritime sector, harbour terminals and terrorism domain. Moreover, the Reds require knowledge of explosives (better if specifically related to IEDs and M-IEDs), while the Blues have to deal with autonomous systems, and so they must have technical expertise related to underwater vehicles. The presence of

• utsiders (someone who does not share the same

educational background, culture, technical knowledge or mind-set as the core group but has some familiarity with the topic) to bring a different point of view and add value to the discussion. As far as the soft skills is concerned, critical thinking, creative thinking, imagination, analytical skills, aptitude for planning and organizing, and willingness to actively participate to a role play session are all desirable characteristics to play the game successfully and meet the wargaming goals.

4 Conclusions and way ahead

This work describes the research activities that CMRE is currently carrying out to investigate the combined use of analytical methodologies (e.g., simulated-based experimentation), together with qualitative methods (e.g., wargaming), to support the development of operational concepts and the adoption of innovative and disruptive technologies in support of military operations.

Figure 3. Concept Development Flowchart Figure 4. Virtual Reality Environment

IT2EC 2020 IT2EC Extended Abstract Template Presentation/Panel CMRE is currently applying this methodology in the research activities conducted on the investigation of how to improve underwater spatial and situational awareness related to the use of Autonomous Systems. More in details, the focus of this work is on the topic of harbour protection against the threat of underwater Maritime Improvised Explosive Devices. The efforts of the team have led to the design and development of a prototype that exploits, collate, and process the raw data gathered by the autonomous systems to build a virtual environment that aims to support human operators in performing underwater missions. CMRE is using the combined approach Wargaming- Modelling and Simulation to gather the information required to draft the preliminary concept of M-IEDs and for the development of the supporting technology. The wargame gives the opportunity to draw out the different experiences and expertise of the players to analyse the underwater M-IED threat and develop a narrative able to capture and elicit the characteristics elements of the problem under examination, valuing the different skills of the gamers to face the situation both from an operational and technical point of view. The resulting challenging environment is made more realistic and engaging thanks to the use of Virtual Reality contents that sustain and facilitate the analytical process. Having the information at their fingertips, indeed, players will focus

• n the analysis of the problem and formulation of plans,

reducing the cognitive workload necessary to take into account the high number of variables typical of complex scenarios such as the one under examination. Finally, the use of analytical simulations gives the opportunity to visualize and test the plans, run them under the same initial conditions or modify some parameters (e.g. considering the elements elicited through the discussions), providing the players with quantitative data for a more objective, robust and exhaustive analysis of the problem. The next step is the Wargaming session that will be held at CMRE by the end of March 2020. The game will provide the possibility to validate the methodology, and to collect and analyse the results as well. The narrative developed by the players along with the data and the information elicited throughout the Wargaming process will serve as basis to test the technological concept introduced in section 2 and, hence, will be used to draft a preliminary concept to improve underwater spatial and situational awareness related to the use of Autonomous Systems. Furthermore, the wargame will contribute to gain insights and understanding on the topic of underwater M-IEDs that can be support Nations in dealing with this asymmetric threat.

5 Acknowledgements

The researches described in this paper have been funded by HQ Supreme Allied Command Transformation in the PARC project and the M&S Project and by the NATO Head Quarter Defence Against Terrorism Programme of Work (DAT POW).

References

[1] NATO Headquarters Supreme Allied Comander Transformation, Autonomous Systems - Issues for Defence Policymakers, A. P. Williams and P. D. Scharre, Eds., Norfolk, Virginia. [2] Department of Defense, Defense Science Board, The Role of Autonomy in DoD Systems, Createspace Independent Pub, 2015. [3] AC/323(SAS-062)TP/258, NATO RTO, “Assessment of Possible Disruptive Technologies for Defence and Security,” 2010. [4] AC/323(SAS-082)TP/427, NATO RTO, “Disruptive Technology Assessment Game – Evolution and Validation,” 2012. [5] P. Caamaño Sobrino, W. Buck, A. Tremori and L. Gazzaneo, “Best practices of computer-based simulation to support wargaming in NATO,” in ITEC 2019, 2019. [6] P. Caamaño Sobrino, A. Tremori, L. Gazzaneo and

• W. Buck, “Best Practices on the Combination of

Qualitative and Quantitative Modelling and Simulation Based Wargaming Approaches to Support Data-driven Analysis for Better Informed Decision Making in NATO,” in NATO Operations Research and Analysis Conference, 2019. [7] A. Tremori, A. Carrera Viñas, D. Solarna, P. Caamaño Sobrino and S. B. Godfrey, “Virtual Reality and Autonomous Systems to Enhance Underwater Situational and Spatial Awareness,” in MESAS 2019. [8] Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC), “Red Teaming Guide,” 2012.

Author/Speaker Biographies

Lucia Gazzaneo is a Management Engineer who is currently doing an industrial PhD at MSC-LES lab, University of Calabria. As part of her research activities, she is also collaborating with NATO STO CMRE to explore the use of M&S to support Wargaming, Concept Development, Planning, Analysis and Experimentation. David Solarna received his B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees in Telecommunications Engineering. Since 2017, he is a Ph.D. student at the University of Genoa. He has been visiting researcher at NASA Goddard Space Flight and at NATO STO CMRE. His research covers pattern recognition techniques and data fusion applied to remote sensing data. Alberto Tremori is an electronical engineer with a PhD in Modelling and Simulation (M&S). He has more than 20 years’ experience working on innovative projects. He is an M&S Scientist AND Project Leader at NATO STO CMRE, focusing on future trends of simulation in NATO, interoperability, autonomous systems and standards.

IT2EC 2020 IT2EC Extended Abstract Template Presentation/Panel Arnau Carrera Viñas received the B.S. and M.S. degree in Computer Science from the Universitat de Girona in 2012 and PhD in 2017. He is a scientist in the NATO STO CMRE and his current research is focus on the integration

• f autonomous system in simulated environments.

Pilar Caamaño Sobrino is a Computer Scientist with a PhD in Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence. She is an M&S scientist at NATO STO CMRE working on the investigation on the use of M&S in areas like Validation, Verification and Accreditation, Concept Development and Experimentation, Analysis, Assessment, Planning, or Wargaming. Wayne Buck is a Modelling and Simulation Analyst at NATO Allied Command Transformation with more than 15 years of experience in the area managing projects ranging for the use of M&S in support of training to analysis or decision-making. Previously, he served for 30 years in the Canadian Army.