Model A Microgrid Investment Risk Assessment Tool: Model - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
model a microgrid investment risk
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Model A Microgrid Investment Risk Assessment Tool: Model - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 08, 2024 6 likes •129 views

Stochastic Techno-Economic Microgrid Model A Microgrid Investment Risk Assessment Tool: Model Development and Case Study Bobson Rugambwa, Lefu Maqelepo Carnegie Mellon University Africa, Kigali, Rwanda October 4, 2018 Overview -

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Stochastic Techno-Economic Microgrid Model – A Microgrid Investment Risk Assessment Tool: Model Development and Case Study

October 4, 2018 Bobson Rugambwa, Lefu Maqelepo Carnegie Mellon University Africa, Kigali, Rwanda

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Overview

  • Understanding the Problem
  • Project Objective
  • Solution overview
  • Use cases & Results
  • Further work
  • Influences & Sources
slide-3
SLIDE 3

Understanding the problem

Electrification rates have experienced significant growth within the past two decades, and so has the population growth. About a billion people still left out, more than 85% of which are in developing countries There are limited data to support the notion that microgrids are risky and at the same time there are limited data to support that they are not Microgrids often hailed as potential solution to electrification in remote areas but there’s low adoption of Microgrids due to investor perception that micro-grids in developing countries are risky business ventures

Background Constraint Problem

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Project Objective

Build a software tool that permits modelling of microgrid utilities from an investor’s perspective, simulating the financial returns of a microgrid under uncertainty.

slide-5
SLIDE 5

The STEMM Techno-Financial Model

  • Model microgrid technical and financial performance
  • Account explicitly for uncertain inputs
  • End goal: enable scale up of microgrid deployment by

facilitating easier techno-financial modeling for microgrid investors

slide-6
SLIDE 6

The STEMM Techno-Financial Model

Meteorological Technology gy Model el Capital Expenditure Financial Model el

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Hourly Insolation & Ambient Temperature for simulating performance of PV array

Meteor eorolog

  • gical Model

el

Photovoltaic, Diesel, Battery, Inverter and Rectifier Modeling

Technol hnolog

  • gy Model

el

Depreciation, Cash Flows, Exchange Rates, Price elasticity of demand, Debt Service Coverage Ratio etc

Financial Model el

Fuel usage, Load served, Individual gen-tech contribution to load

Dispatc tch h Model el

Interaction of the Component Models

Load prediction over time

Load Model el

slide-8
SLIDE 8

The Software Tool

  • Graphical User Interface collects all project parameters
  • Linked to the NASA Meteorological API for Irradiance and Temperature data.
  • Links with techno-financial model to produce and graph results
slide-9
SLIDE 9

Model Outputs

  • Indicators used

○ For bankability ■ Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) ○ For Equity ■ Net Present Value (NPV)

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Possible Applications/Uses

  • Te

Techno nolo logy based sed cost st function tion optimization imization for proje ject ct develop

  • pers

ers

  • Financial

ancial viability bility analysis lysis for financial ancial instit titutions, tions, lenders ers and Investors stors.

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Future Work

Deliverable 1

Add more microgrid renewable energy technologies (Wind, Hydro Biogas, etc)

Deliverable 2

Understand how business models, technologies and policies improve financial performance and mitigate risk

Deliverable 3

Measure the probability of project success/failure to a higher confidence level for investors.

Deliverable 4

Create a downloadable PDF document report summarizing the results of model

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Some of the papers that informed our project

  • RICHARD PEREZ, PIERRE INEICHEN, ROBERT SEALS, JOSEPH MICHALSKY, RONALD STEWART, "MODELING

DAYLIGHT AVAILABILITY AND IRRADIANCE COMPONENTS FROM DIRECT AND GLOBAL IRRADIANCE," Solar Energy, vol. 44, no. 5, pp. 271-289, 1990.

  • Hossein Khorasanizadeh, Kasra Mohammadi, Navid Goudarzi, "Prediction of horizontal diffuse solar radiation using

clearness index based empirical models; A case study," International journal of hydrogen energy, vol. 41, pp. 21888 - 21898, 2016.

  • Nathaniel J.Williams, Paulina Jaramillo, Jay Taneja, "An investment risk assessment of microgrid utilities for rural

electrification using the stochastic techno-economic microgrid model: A case study in Rwanda," Energy for Sustainable Development, vol. 42, pp. 87-96, 2018.

  • R. J. AGUIAR, M. COLLARES-PEREIRA, J. P. CONDE LNETI, "SIMPLE PROCEDURE FOR GENERATING

SEQUENCES OF DAILY RADIATION VALUES USING A LIBRARY OF MARKOV TRANSITION MATRICES," Solar Energy, vol. 40, no. 3, pp. 269-279, 1988.

  • R. AGUIAR, M. COLLARES-PEREIRA LNETI, "TAG: A TIME-DEPENDENT, AUTOREGRESSIVE, GAUSSIAN MODEL

FOR GENERATING SYNTHETIC HOURLY RADIATION," Solar Energy, vol. 49, no. 3, pp. 167-174, 1992.

  • JAMES F. MANWELL, JON G. McGOWAN, "LEAD ACID BATTERY STORAGE MODEL FOR HYBRID ENERGY

SYSTEMS," Solar Energy, vol. 50, no. 5, pp. 399-405, 1993.