Mode Choices of Millennials How Different? How Enduring? A study by - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mode Choices of Millennials

How Different? How Enduring?

A study by Robert Case and Seth Schipinski Presented to HRTPO Board By Robert Case, PhD, PE

• Sept. 17, 2015

Agenda Item #11

Background HRTPO has a history of supporting alternative transportation— bike, walk, and public transit

For FY1992-FY2021, HRTPO Board has allocated to “non-highway”:

• 34% of RSTP
• 85% of CMAQ

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Impetus

• Recently Published Reports:

Millennials use alternative transportation

“Millennials”: born 1982 thru 2000 (age 15-33 today)

• Ensuing Question:

“Given these reports, should we plan for higher demand for alternative transportation in the future?”

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Today

• Initial Finding

– In Hampton Roads, Millennials use alternative transportation twice as frequently as Non-Millennials.

• Resulting Question

– Will usage of alternative transportation double in the future?

• Research

– How much of current difference is due to:

• Generation?

(static)

• Age?

(changes)

• Income?

(changes)

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Research

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Staff used an existing survey to model usage of alternative transportation.

– Model based on Seven Factors:

1. Age 2. Generation 3. Era 4. Gender 5. Income 6. Location of home 7. Size of metro area

Findings

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Living in a large MSA gives a worker higher odds of using alternative transportation.

Note: Bars show 95% confidence interval.

Findings

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Living in a low-income household gives a worker much higher odds of using alternative transportation.

Note: Bars show 95% confidence interval.

Findings

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0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Baby Boomer Generation Generation X Millennial Generation Odds Factor Generation

All other things being equal (income, location, etc.), being a Millennial gives a worker higher odds of using alternative transportation.

Note: Bars show 95% confidence interval.

Public Comments

Examples of Public Comments on Draft:

– “…very interesting and refreshing.” – “Please don’t forget about people in wheelchairs.” – “The built environment will influence future behavior…” – “As a millennial I feel...it gives a much clearer picture of what I observe in my peers.” – “Consider adding the…paper…by Noreen C. McDonald…” – “…your conclusion reinforces a self-fulfilling prophecy of declining alternative transportation use.” – “Better explain ‘appropriately skipped’…” – “Why was use of alternative modes so high in 1980?”

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Staff Response

• Staff used the model to prepare a forecast of

usage of alternative transportation in HR:

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Assumption: HR workforce of the future is same as today except for generation

– We gave all future workers the Millennial factor (1.6 odds ratio)

Result:

Conclusions

• 1. HRTPO staff plans to consider

all seven factors when planning alternative transportation infrastructure

e.g. current Signature Paths project

• 2. Being a Millennial is a positive

factor concerning usage of alternative transportation

Under one scenario, HRTPO staff would expect usage of alternative transportation for commuting in Hampton Roads to increase from 5.3% (2010) to 6.9% (2050)

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Timeline

• 7-1-15

Draft presented to TTAC

• 7-1-15

Start of 45-day comment period

• July/Aug. Revisions re: public comments
• 9-2-15

TTAC recommended approval

• Today

Approval request under consent agenda (item 15-N)

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