Mode Choices of Millennials How Different? How Enduring? A study by - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Agenda Item #11 Mode Choices of Millennials How Different? How Enduring? A study by Robert Case and Seth Schipinski Presented to HRTPO Board By Robert Case, PhD, PE Sept. 17, 2015

Background HRTPO has a history of supporting alternative transportation — bike, walk, and public transit For FY1992-FY2021, HRTPO Board has allocated to “non-highway”: • 34% of RSTP • 85% of CMAQ 2

Impetus • Recently Published Reports: Millennials use alternative transportation “Millennials”: born 1982 thru 2000 (age 15-33 today) • Ensuing Question: “Given these reports, should we plan for higher demand for alternative transportation in the future?” 3

Today • Initial Finding – In Hampton Roads, Millennials use alternative transportation twice as frequently as Non-Millennials. • Resulting Question – Will usage of alternative transportation double in the future ? • Research – How much of current difference is due to: • Generation? (static) • Age? (changes) • Income? (changes) 4

Research Staff used an existing survey to model usage of alternative transportation. – Model based on Seven Factors: 1. Age 2. Generation 3. Era 4. Gender 5. Income 6. Location of home 7. Size of metro area 5

Findings Living in a large MSA gives a worker higher odds of using alternative transportation. Note: Bars show 95% confidence interval. 6

Findings Living in a low-income household gives a worker much higher odds of using alternative transportation. Note: Bars show 95% confidence interval. 7

Findings All other things being equal (income, location, etc.), being a Millennial gives a worker higher odds of using alternative transportation. 3 2.5 2 Odds Factor 1.5 1 0.5 0 Baby Boomer Generation Generation X Millennial Generation Generation Note: Bars show 95% confidence interval. 8

Public Comments Examples of Public Comments on Draft : – “…very interesting and refreshing.” – “Please don’t forget about people in wheelchairs.” – “The built environment will influence future behavior…” – “As a millennial I feel...it gives a much clearer picture of what I observe in my peers.” – “Consider adding the…paper…by Noreen C. McDonald…” – “…your conclusion reinforces a self-fulfilling prophecy of declining alternative transportation use.” – “Better explain ‘appropriately skipped’…” – “Why was use of alternative modes so high in 1980?” 9

Staff Response • Staff used the model to prepare a forecast of usage of alternative transportation in HR: Assumption: HR workforce of the future is same as today except for generation – We gave all future workers the Millennial factor (1.6 odds ratio) Result: 10

Conclusions 1. HRTPO staff plans to consider all seven factors when planning alternative transportation infrastructure e.g. current Signature Paths project 2. Being a Millennial is a positive factor concerning usage of alternative transportation Under one scenario, HRTPO staff would expect usage of alternative transportation for commuting in Hampton Roads to increase from 5.3% (2010) to 6.9% (2050) 11

Timeline • 7-1-15 Draft presented to TTAC • 7-1-15 Start of 45-day comment period • July/Aug. Revisions re: public comments • 9-2-15 TTAC recommended approval • Today Approval request under consent agenda (item 15-N) 12