Mission-Aransas Pilot Study: A Proof-of-Concept Demonstration of the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mission-Aransas Pilot Study: A Proof-of-Concept Demonstration of the Gulf EcoHealth Metrics Decision-Support Framework

1 Harwell Gentile & Associates LC, Cape Cod, MA and Port Orange, FL 2 Mission-Aransas National Estuarine Research Reserve, Port Aransas TX, USA 3 Green Wing Environmental LLC, Victoria, TX, USA 4 Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi,

Corpus Christi TX, USA

John H. Gentile1, Mark A. Harwell1, Jace W. Tunnell2, Kiersten Stanzel3, Larry D. McKinney4, and John (Wes) W. Tunnell Jr4

Mission-Aransas Reserve Pilot Study

Goals:

• To test the integrated

assessment framework and associated indicators in a real- world environmental management application.

• To specify key indicators for

assessing ecological health and ecosystem services and identify their linkages to well- being.

• To conduct a proof-of-concept

pilot study focused on specific management issues of the Mission-Aransas NERR.

Indicators of Ecosystem Health

• Structures
• Processes
• Diversity

Indicators of Ecosystem Services

• Provisioning
• Regulating
• Cultural

Environmental Decision-Making

• MANERR Pilot
• Proof of Concept
• Decision Support

Linking Ecosystem Health, Services, and Well-Being

Management Responses

Supporting Services

Indicators of Well-Being

• Connection to Nature
• Living standards
• Health, etc.

Societal & Natural Drivers, Pressures, & Stressors

Decision Support Framework

Problem Formulation

• Determine Management Needs
• Identify Ecological & Societal Needs
• Determine Project Goals/Objectives
• Develop Case-Specific Conceptual models

Propose Alternatives

• Acquire Baseline Information
• Identify Alternative Actions

Alternative Analysis

• Conduct Scenario-Consequence Analysis
• Conduct Feasibility Analysis
• Identify Trade-Off Analysis

Decision

• Select Optimal Alternative
• Establish Monitoring Plan
• Identify Goals/Targets

Approach:

A structured decision-support framework, using geospatial ecosystem-based management tools and scenario-consequence analyses, is employed to assess the trade-offs inherent in managing the complex interactions of coupled human and natural systems.

Mission-Aransas Reserve Pilot Study

Management Goal:

To create or extend rookery islands in the coastal systems of the Reserve in order to enhance nesting, breeding, and foraging habitat for resident and migratory coastal birds, which provide ecosystem and well-being services to a range of beneficiaries.

Precipita*on Changes

Mission Aransas Dredged and Natural Islands

Climate Change & Physical Processes

Areal Extent/ Distribu0on Wave & Erosion Protec0on Colonial Waterbird Rookeries Whooping Crane Habitat Waterbird Habitat

Sedimenta*on Hurricanes/ Storms Sea- Level Rise Subsidence Ocean Circula*on Erosion Climate Change/Variability Sea-Level Rise Geohydrology

Habitat Altera*on

Mission Aransas Dredged and Natural Islands

Human Activities

Areal Extent/ Distribu0on Wave & Erosion Protec0on Colonial Waterbird Rookeries Whooping Crane Habitat

Development Commercial Fishing

Waterbird Habitat

Marine Debris Human Presence & Noise Resource Harves*ng Recrea0on Shipping Industry

Physical

• Hydrology
• Salinity
• Precipita0on
• Erosion
• SLR/Inunda0on
• Storms
• Noise

Chemical

• Nutrients
• Petroleum releases
• Pes0cides/Herbicides

Biological

• Food Availability
• Preda0on
• HAV
• Human Presence

Structural AKributes

• Areal Extent
• Habitat diversity
• Structural complexity
• Successional PaKerns
• Breeding Residents
• Winter-Migratory

Func0onal AKributes

• Erosion Protec0on
• CWB Breeding Habitat
• WB Non-Breeding Habitat
• Whooping Crane Habitat
• Fish Habitat
• Invertebrate Habitat
• Seagrass Habitat
• Oyster Habitat
• Marsh Habitat
• Hazard Mi0ga0on
• Recrea0on
• Naviga0on
• Habitat Value
• Food Provisioning

Pressures/Stressors Condi0on AKributes Eco-Services Well-Being

• Health
• Economic
• Recrea0on
• Cultural

Rookery Island DPSCR Framework

Indicators of Ecosystem Health

• Structures
• Processes
• Diversity

Indicators of Ecosystem Services

• Provisioning
• Regulating
• Cultural

Environmental Decision-Making

• MANERR Pilot
• Proof of Concept
• Decision Support

Linking Ecosystem Health, Services, and Well-Being

Management Responses

Supporting Services

Indicators of Well-Being

• Connection to Nature
• Living standards
• Health, etc.

Societal & Natural Drivers, Pressures, & Stressors

Facilitates the capturing of spatial and non-spatial information and conservation requirements for elements, defining scenarios for land use, management, conservation, disturbance, etc., and evaluates the impacts of scenarios on the element.

Land-use Type Policy Type Scenario Outputs (baseline, trends, alternatives)

Elements, values, & expert knowledge Alternative scenario development

Evaluation Maps & Reports

Evaluation Maps & Reports

Waterbird Survey Data (1970-2015) Geospa0al Analysis of Waterbird Data Map Loca0on of Clusters/Islands Analyze Species Abundance & Diversity Trends Recommend Eco-based Si0ng Criteria/Bounds Landscape Variables

• Distance from land/predators
• Eleva0on

Hydrologic Variables

• Bathymetry
• SLR/Surge

Biologic Variables

• Vegeta0on % cover & diversity
• Distance from feeding habitats

Geospa0al Analyses

• NatureServe Vista planning tool
• Ranked/scaled conserva0on elements
• Op0mize areas for candidate sites

Rookery Island Site NatureServe Conservation Elements

Waterbird Survey Data Geospa5al Analyses Proposed Candidate Sites

Final Site(s) Selec0on

Proposed Candidate Sites

Mission-Aransas Reserve Pilot Study

• Complete mapping of “conservation elements”
• Use INVEST to link VISTA geospatial indicators to

ecosystem services in the scenario analysis

• Conduct scenario-consequence analyses to assess

feasibility & trade-offs

• Demonstrate the utility of conceptual and decision

support frameworks

• Complete project during this fiscal year
• Prepare manuscript for peer-reviewed publication on

integrated assessment/decision framework and pilot study

Next Steps: