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Milk Market Situation Brussels, 21 September 2017 EU Productions - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Milk Market Situation Brussels, 21 September 2017 EU Productions EU Productions (Jan-Jul 2017 compared to Jan-Jul 2016) + 10% +2.9% + 5% +1.3% +1.4% +1.2% +0.6% + 0% -0.3% - 5% -2.1% -5.5% - 10% -9.3% - 15% !!! Data from some

  1. Milk Market Situation Brussels, 21 September 2017

  2. EU Productions EU Productions (Jan-Jul 2017 compared to Jan-Jul 2016) + 10% +2.9% + 5% +1.3% +1.4% +1.2% +0.6% + 0% -0.3% - 5% -2.1% -5.5% - 10% -9.3% - 15% !!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!! 21 September 2017

  3. -2.1 -2.5 -0.8 -0.3 -2.1 -5.0% to -2.4% -1.6 -2.4% to -1.2% -1.2% to -0.7% -0.7% to 0.0% +7.4 0.0% to +0.6% -0.5 +4.4 +0.6% to +3.8% -0.7 -2.8 +3.8% to +7.0% +7.0% to +11.0% +0.6 n/a -0.2 -1.3 -1.1 -0.9 +0.7 +5.9 -2.6 0 -4.2 +3.2 +9.6 +0.6 -1.1 +0.1 -3.3 +10.2 Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1 21 September 2017

  4. EU - Cows' milk collected Jan-Jul 2017/16 : - 0.3% 14000 Jan-Jul 2017/16 : -0.3% 2014 13000 2015 1000 Tonnes 12000 2016 11000 2017 Eurostat notifications missing for: DK, EL, CY, AT and SE 10000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Eurostat notification estimated for: DK (July 2017) Last update : Jan-Jul Source : Estat - Newcronos Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat 21 September 2017

  5. EU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to August 2017*) EUR/100 kg * : estimated price in running month 50 48 46 44 42 40.6 40 38 36 34.5 34 32 30 28 26 24 Weighted EU Average (real fat content) 22 EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices) * : provisional figures 20 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Source : MS’ communications under Reg. (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a) 21 September 2017

  6. E U M I L K P R I C E S ( Jul 2017 vs Jul 2016 ) Source : Member States (Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a)) 60 55.3 55 Milk Price 2016 50 46.7 Milk Price 2017 45 38.0 37.5 37.3 37.2 40 36.8 36.8 36.6 35.9 35.0 34.7 34.2 34.0 33.6 in EUR/100 kg 32.8 35 31.6 31.5 30.7 30.5 30.5 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.7 27.7 30 26.7 25 20 15 10 5 0 CY MT GR FI NL SE IT AT DK DE IE BE EU FR LU EE PL CZ HR UK SK ES SI HU LV BG PT LT RO Estimates for DK, ES NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein 21 September 2017 content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010 Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

  7. Weekly EU SMP Prices Latest price : 170 EUR/100kg 450 Evolution compared to same period last year : -10% 400 350 EUR/100 kg 300 250 200 150 Jun Jul Aug Jan Feb Mar Apr May Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017 IP 2009 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 21 September 2017

  8. EU S.M.P. Prices (up to 10.09.2017) 200 Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7 196 195 190 185 180 in EUR/100 kg 175 I.P. : 169.8 170 169 168 170 166 165 165 160 155 150 CZ EU Avg. BE DE IE NL 21 September 2017

  9. Weekly EU BUTTER Prices Latest price : 652 EUR/100kg 700 Evolution compared to same period last year : +74% 650 600 550 EUR/100 kg 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 Feb Jun Jul Aug Jan Mar Apr May Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017 IP 2009 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 21 September 2017

  10. EU BUTTER Prices (up to 10.09.2017) 750 704 Source : Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7 697 652 645 643 650 617 598 582 578 548 550 EUR/100 kg 450 350 I.P. = 221.75 250 150 DE NL EU Avg. IT ES IE SK LV CZ EE 21 September 2017

  11. EU Quotations of Butter and SMP (EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production) 700 650 652 Butter Intervention buying in price 600 SMP Intervention buying in price 550 BUTTER prices in EUR/100 kg . SMP prices 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 170 150 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Source: MS ’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010 21 September 2017

  12. EU Dairy Quotations (EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production) 700 650 BUTTER SMP 600 WMP 550 CHEDDAR 500 in EUR/100 kg 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7 21 September 2017

  13. Weekly EU WMP Prices Latest price : 312 EUR/100kg 450 Evolution compared to same period last year : +23% 400 350 EUR/100 kg 300 250 200 150 Jan Feb Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Mar Apr May Oct Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 21 September 2017

  14. Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices Weekly EU EDAM Prices Latest price : 348 EUR/100kg Latest price : 351 EUR/100kg 500 450 400 450 350 400 EUR/100 kg EUR/100 kg 350 300 250 300 200 250 Evolution compared to same period last year : +24% Evolution compared to same period last year : +16% 200 150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Aug Sep Oct Nov Feb Mar Apr May Oct Jun Jul Dec Jan Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017 2 014 2 015 2 016 2 017 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 21 September 2017

  15. Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices Latest price : 80 EUR/100kg 120 Evolution compared to same period last year : -11% 110 100 EUR/100 kg 90 80 70 60 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017 Series2 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 21 September 2017

  16. Public SMP Intervention scheme (2016-2017) Buying-in quantity at fixed price 375 000 350 000 325 000 357 359 300 000 275 000 250 000 225 000 200 000 Quantity in tonnes 175 000 150 000 125 000 Cumulate quantity bought in 2017 up to 10.09.2017 (fixed price only) : 11 160 100 000 75 000 50 000 25 000 0 -25 000 Quantities In (2017) Quantities Out (2017) Quantity offered (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016) Quantity offered (2017) Stocks level end of month (2017) 21 September 2017

  17. Private Storage Aid Scheme (2016-2017) - S.M.P. 100 000 90 000 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 Quantity in tonnes 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 -10 000 -20 000 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Quantities In (2017) Quantities Out (2017) Quantity offered - max 210 days (2016) Quantity offered - max 210 & 365 days (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016) Quantity offered - max 210 days (2017) Quantity offered - max 210 & 365 days (2017) Stocks level end of month (2017) 21 September 2017

  18. Private Storage Aid Scheme (2016-2017) - BUTTER 175 000 150 000 125 000 100 000 Quantity in tonnes 75 000 50 000 25 000 0 -25 000 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Quantities In (2017) Quantities Out (2017) Quantity offered (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016) Quantity offered (2017) Stocks level end of month (2017) 21 September 2017

  19. Private Storage Aid Scheme (2016-2017) - CHEESE 60 000 50 000 40 000 Quantity in tonnes 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 -10 000 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Quantities In (2017) Quantities Out (2017) Quantity offered (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016) Stocks level end of month (2017) 21 September 2017

  20. US Dollar EUR/USD 1.1963 source: www.xe.com 21 September 2017

  21. EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP 6 000 Avg Oceania SMP quotation 5 500 Avg EU SMP internal Price 5 000 Avg US SMP quotation 4 500 Prices in USD/tonne 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 066 2 000 1 950 1 885 1 500 Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news 1 000 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 Aug 15 Nov 15 Feb 16 Aug 16 Nov 16 Feb 17 Aug 17 May 10 May 11 May 12 May 13 May 14 May 15 May 16 May 17 21 September 2017

  22. EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP 6 000 Avg Oceania WMP quotation 5 500 Avg EU WMP internal Price Avg US WMP quotation 5 000 4 500 Prices in USD/tonne 4 000 3 678 3 500 3 362 3 113 3 000 2 500 2 000 Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news 1 500 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 Aug 15 Nov 15 Feb 16 Aug 16 Nov 16 Feb 17 Aug 17 May 10 May 11 May 12 May 13 May 14 May 15 May 16 May 17 21 September 2017

  23. EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter 8 000 Avg Oceania Butter quotation 7 500 Avg EU Butter internal Price 7 274 7 000 Avg US Butter quotation 6 500 6 075 6 000 5 657 Prices in USD/tonne 5 500 5 000 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news 1 500 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 May 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 May 15 Aug 15 Nov 15 Feb 16 May 16 Aug 16 Nov 16 Feb 17 May 17 Aug 17 21 September 2017

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