Milk Market Situation Brussels, 25 Aug 2016 EU Productions EU - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Milk Market Situation Brussels, 25 Aug 2016 EU Productions EU Productions (Jan-Jun 2016 compared to Jan-Jun 2015) +10,4% +13,3% +7,8% +3,3% +1,1% +2,4% +0,7% -0,9% -15,0% !!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT
Brussels, 25 Aug 2016
25 Aug 2016 !!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!
EU Productions
+3,3% +10,4% +13,3% +7,8% +0,7%
+1,1% +2,4%
EU Productions (Jan-Jun 2016 compared to Jan-Jun 2015)
25 Aug 2016
+0.0% to +7.0% +7.0% to +14.0% +14.0% to +21.0% +21.0% to +28.0% n/a
+5,0 +7,3 +1,3 +4,7 +3,7 +2,2 +10,3 +2,3 +2,3 +2,8 +25,2 +3,5
+16,3 +1,6 +2,5 +12,6 +3,3 +5,1
+6,8 +6,3
+1,1
Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1
25 Aug 2016
Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 Tonnes
EU - Cows' milk collected
2016 2015 2014 2013
Jan-Jun 2016/15 : +03%
Last update : Jan-Jun
Source : Estat - Newcronos Jan-Jun 2016/15 : + 3,3%
25 Aug 2016
25,5 26,2 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 EUR/100 kg
EU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to July 2016*)
Weighted EU Average (real fat content) EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)
Source : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010 Source : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010 * : provisional figures
* : estimated price in running month
25 Aug 2016
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010
NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010
55,0 45,0 37,4 36,8 30,6 29,3 28,7 28,2 28,0 28,0 27,4 26,2 25,8 25,4 25,0 25,0 24,6 23,5 23,2 23,2 23,2 23,1 22,9 22,0 21,6 21,0 20,2 17,8 16,9
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
CY MT GR FI IT AT FR HR SE ES PT DK EU GB LU NL BG IE DE SK SI PL BE CZ RO HU EE LV LT
in EUR/100 kg
E U M I L K P R I C E S
Milk Price 2015 Milk Price 2016
Source: Member States (Reg. 479/2010)
( Jun 2016 vs Jun 2015 )
Estimates for DK, IE, ES, SE
25 Aug 2016 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EUR/100 kg
Weekly EU SMP Prices
2013 2014 2015 2016 IP 2009
Latest price : 178 EUR/100kg Evolution compared to same period last year : +5%
183 182 181 180 178 173 168 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 DE CZ BE NL EU Avg. PL IE in EUR/100 kg
EU S.M.P. Prices (up to 14.08.2016)
I.P. : 169.8
Source : Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Article 2
25 Aug 2016
25 Aug 2016 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EUR/100 kg
Weekly EU BUTTER Prices
2013 2014 2015 2016 IP 2009
Evolution compared to same period last year : +15% Latest price : 329 EUR/100kg
25 Aug 2016
400 364 357 350 348 329 324 321 313 313 312 306 280 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 HR SK DE NL BE EU Avg. EE LV CZ PL ES GB IE EUR/100 kg
EU BUTTER Prices (up to 14.08.2016)
Source : Reg. (EC) No 479/2010 Article 2
I.P. = 221.75
25 Aug 2016
329 178 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 in EUR/100 kg .
EU Quotations of Butter and SMP (EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)
Butter Intervention buying in price SMP Intervention buying in price BUTTER prices SMP prices
Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010
25 Aug 2016
140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 in EUR/100 kg
EU Dairy Quotations
(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production) BUTTER SMP WMP CHEDDAR
Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010
25 Aug 2016 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EUR/100 kg
Weekly EU WMP Prices
2013 2014 2015 2016
Evolution compared to same period last year : +6%
Latest price : 229 EUR/100kg
25 Aug 2016 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EUR/100 kg
Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices
2013 2014 2015 2016 Evolution compared to same period last year : -7%
Latest price : 283 EUR/100kg
150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EUR/100 kg
Weekly EU EDAM Prices
2.013 2.014 2.015 2.016 Evolution compared to same period last year : +9%
Latest price : 267 EUR/100kg
50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EUR/100 kg
Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices
2013 2014 2015 2016 Evolution compared to same period last year : +23%
Latest price : 76 EUR/100kg
25 Aug 2016 Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
25 Aug 2016
25.000 50.000 75.000 100.000 125.000 150.000 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Quantity in tonnes
Private Storage Aid Scheme (2014-2016) - BUTTER
Quantities In (2016) Quantities Out (2016) Quantity offered (2014) Quantity offered (2015) Stocks level end of month (2015) Quantity offered (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016)
25 Aug 2016
5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 45.000 50.000 55.000 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Quantity in tonnes
Private Storage Aid Scheme (2014-2016) - S.M.P.
Quantities In (2016) Quantities Out (2016) Quantity offered (2014) Quantity offered - max 210 days (2015) Quantity offered - max 210 & 365 days (2015) Stocks level end of month (2015) Quantity offered - max 210 days (2016) Quantity offered - max 210 & 365 days (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016)
25 Aug 2016
10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Quantity in tonnes
Private Storage Aid Scheme (2016) - CHEESE
Quantities In (2016) Quantities Out (2016) Quantity offered (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016)
25 Aug 2016
25.000 50.000 75.000 100.000 125.000 150.000 175.000 200.000 225.000 250.000 275.000 300.000 325.000
Quantity in tonnes
Public SMP Intervention scheme (2015-2016)
Buying-in quantity at fixed price
Quantities In (2016) Quantities Out (2016) Quantity offered (2015) Stocks level end of month (2015) Quantity offered (2016) Stocks level end of month (2016)
Cumulate quantity up to 14.08.2016 (buying-in at fixed price) : 253 893 T
25 Aug 2016
source: www.xe.com
US Dollar
USD/EUR
1.12707
25 Aug 2016
1.925 1.916 1.843 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.500 6.000 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Prices in USD/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP
Avg Oceania SMP quotation Avg EU SMP internal Price Avg US SMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
25 Aug 2016
2.238 2.504 2.954 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.500 6.000 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Prices in USD/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP
Avg Oceania WMP quotation Avg EU WMP internal Price Avg US WMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
25 Aug 2016
2.900 3.430 4.890 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.500 6.000 6.500 7.000 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Prices in USD/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter
Avg Oceania Butter quotation Avg EU Butter internal Price Avg US Butter quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
25 Aug 2016
2.938 3.892 3.060 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.500 6.000 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Prices in USD/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar
Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation Avg EU Cheddar internal Price Avg US Cheddar quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
25 Aug 2016
97.251 130.115 237.063 244.464 19.894 17.686 13.909 14.571 4.653 2.898 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000
2015 2016
EU-28 (up to Jun) New Zealand (up to Jun) Australia (up to Jun) United States (up to Jun) Argentina (up to Jun)
25 Aug 2016
359.396 310.216 200.974 217.343 105.780 . 87.381 . 288.880 . 258.134 . 12.636 11.216 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000 400.000
2015 2016
EU-28 (up to Jun) New Zealand (up to Jun) Australia (up to Jun) United States (up to Jun) Argentina (up to Jun)
25 Aug 2016
199.559 205.377 700.948 . 677.607 . 36.360 33.293 21.682 32.230 62.993 56.359 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000 800.000
2015 2016
EU-28 (up to Jun) New Zealand (up to Jun) Australia (up to Jun) United States (up to Jun) Argentina (up to Jun)
25 Aug 2016
343.134 392.152 165.154 180.644 85.396 86.770 175.983 140.740 18.910 22.262
50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000 400.000 450.000 2015 2016
EU-28 (up to Jun) New Zealand (up to Jun) Australia (up to Jun) United States (up to Jun) Argentina (up to Jun)
25 Aug 2016
EU-28 Exports (1/2)
Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
119 126 94 102 102 120 135 1000 Tonnes
BUTTER exports
5 10 15 20 25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan- Jun 2016 exports compared to 2015 : + 36%
BUTTER exports
2015 2016 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
229 376 515 520 407 648 686 1000 Tonnes
SMP exports
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan- Jun 2016 exports compared to 2015 : - 14%
SMP exports
2015 2016
25 Aug 2016
EU-28 Exports (2/2)
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
569 667 673 768 786 721 719 1000 Tonnes
CHEESE exports
100 200 300 400 500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
458 445 388 386 374 390 392 1000 Tonnes
WMP exports
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes Jan- Jun 2016 exports compared to 2015 : + 14%
CHEESE exports
2015 2016 10 20 30 40 50 60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan- Jun 2016 exports compared to 2015 : + 3%
WMP exports
2015 2016
25 Aug 2016
13.655 12.643 17.759 25.986 27.984 35.845 32.768 44.174 17.353 20.579 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 45.000 50.000 2015 2016
BUTTER + Butteroil Imports
EU-28 (up to Jun) United States (up to Jun) Russia (up to May) China (up to Jun) Mexico (up to May)
25 Aug 2016
1.666 2.301 89.421 107.647 40.163 43.683 108.506 113.876 29.935 16.895 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000
2015 2016
EU-28 (up to Jun) Mexico (up to May) Russia (up to May) China (up to Jun) Japan (up to Jun)
25 Aug 2016
1.486 3.812 13.213 15.966 235.516 293.959 4.838 6.156 3.361 8.644 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000
2015 2016
EU-28 (up to Jun) Russia (up to May) China (up to Jun) United States (up to Jun) Mexico (up to May)
25 Aug 2016
30.464 38.472 85.476 98.695 69.152 86.962 36.669 45.567 124.700 126.415 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000
2015 2016
EU-28 (up to Jun) United States (up to Jun) Russia (up to May) China (up to Jun) Japan (up to Jun)
25 Aug 2016
Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 1/2)
25 50 75 100 125 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 54 72 73 68 136 139 95 1000 Tonnes
Russia
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes
Jan-May 2016 compared to 2015 : + 28%
2015 2016 25 50 75 100 125 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 28 23 36 48 52 80 71 1000 Tonnes
China
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes
Jan-Jun 2016 compared to 2015 : + 35%
2015 2016
25 Aug 2016
Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 2/2)
25 50 75 100 125 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 24 14 13 18 14 22 40 1000 Tonnes
United States
25 50 75 100 125 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 38 35 98 49 50 45 55 1000 Tonnes
Egypt
2 4 6 8 10 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes Jan-Jun 2016 compared to 2015 : + 46% 2015 2016
Jan-Jun 2016 compared to 2015 : + 46%
2 4 6 8 10 12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes Jan-Mar 2016 compared to 2015 : - 20% 2015 2016 2016
Jan-Mar 2016 compared to 2015 : - 20%
25 Aug 2016
Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)
50 100 150 200 250 300 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 70 89 130 168 235 253 200 1000 Tonnes
China
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes
Jan-Jun 2016 compared to 2015 : + 5%
2015 2016 50 100 150 200 250 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 93 98 129 112 120 168 131 1000 Tonnes
Algeria
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes 2015 2016
25 Aug 2016
Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. – 2/2)
50 100 150 200 250 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 8 63 27 27 112 95 113 1000 Tonnes
Russia
25 50 75 100 125 150 175 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 104 132 128 136 155 146 145 1000 Tonnes
Indonesia
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes 2015 2014
Jan-May 2016 compared to 2015 : + 9%
2016 2016 5 10 15 20 25 1000 tonnes Jan-May 2016 compared to 2015 : - 3% 2009 2010 50 100 150 200 250 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 104 132 128 136 155 146 145 1000 Tonnes
Indonesia
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes
Jan-May 2016 compared to 2015 : - 3%
2015 2016
25 Aug 2016
Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 177 326 320 406 619 671 347 1000 Tonnes
China
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes
Jan-Jun 2016 compared to 2015 : + 25%
2015 2016 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 200 167 204 188 142 204 210 1000 Tonnes
Algeria
10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes 2015 2014 2016
25 Aug 2016
Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 2/2)
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 33 39 51 64 74 81 75 1000 Tonnes
Hong Kong
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 74 83 81 74 90 85 75 1000 Tonnes
Singapore
5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes
Jan-Jun 2016 compared to 2015 : + 6%
2015 2016 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes
Jan-May 2016 compared to 2015 : - 8%
2015 2013 2016
Jan-May 2016 compared to 2015 : - 8%
2016
25 Aug 2016
Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 229 294 296 316 440 316 208 1000 Tonnes
Russia
5 10 15 20 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes
Jan-May 2016 compared to 2015 : + 26%
2015 2016 2016 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 184 199 215 235 236 232 249 1000 Tonnes
Japan
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes
Jan-Jun 2016 compared to 2015 : + 1%
2015 2016
25 Aug 2016
Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 49 61 76 78 85 97 112 1000 Tonnes
South Korea
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 162 138 143 154 148 165 200 1000 Tonnes
United States
5 10 15 20 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes
Jan-Jun 2016 compared to 2015 : - 6%
2015 2016 5 10 15 20 25 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1000 tonnes
Jan-Jun 2016 compared to 2015 : + 15%
2015 2016
25 Aug 2016 7.000 7.250 7.500 7.750 8.000 8.250 8.500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec in 1000 tonnes
U.S. milk production
2013 2014 2015 2016
Source:USDA
Jan-Jun 2016 vs 2015 : + 1,6% (real monthly production)
25 Aug 2016 Source: Dairy Australia 500 600 700 800 900 1.000 1.100 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun in 1000 tonnes Jul-Jun 2015/16 compared to 2014/15 : - 2,0%
Australian milk production
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
25 Aug 2016 Source: DCANZ - Fonterra
500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May in 1000 tonnes . Jun-Jun 2016/17 compared to 2015/16 : 0,0%
NZ milk production
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
25 Aug 2016
GDT Auction results