Mihkel Meidla Mihkel Meidla University of Tartu Tartu University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Mihkel Meidla Mihkel Meidla University of University of Tartu Tartu Estonia Estonia

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The The purpose purpose

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the the study study

► ►Review

Review

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general general traffic traffic safety safety situation situation in in Estonia Estonia

► ►Risk

Risk assessment assessment

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car makes - car makes - based based on

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Estonian Estonian national national safety safety statistics statistics

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registered registered ( (injurious injurious

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fatal fatal) ) accidents accidents

► ►Elaboration

Elaboration

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most most dangerous dangerous car car makes makes

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Current Current situation situation in in traffic traffic safety safety

► ►Compared

Compared to to

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European European countries countries the the situation situation is is unsatisfactory unsatisfactory! !

► ►Estonian

Estonian National National Traffic Traffic Safety Safety Programme Programme

• Vision

Vision 100: 100: Less Less than than 100 100 fatalities fatalities at 2015 at 2015 (168 (168 in in 2005) 2005)

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Road Road fatalities fatalities per per 1 1 million million population population

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126 50 100 150 200 250 300

Netherlands Sweden Norway United Kingdom Germany Finland Denmark France Ireland Italy Austria Belgium Slovak Republic Spain Portugal Estonia Hungary Greece Czech Republic Poland Russian Federation

2004 1990

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Road Road accidents in accidents in Estonia 1991-2005 Estonia 1991-2005

100 200 300 400 500 600 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 600 1200 1800 2400 3000 3600 Fatalities Injuries

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Motorization Motorization development development in in Estonia Estonia ( (cars cars per per 1000 1000 population population) )

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 6 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 Car ownership (cars per 1000 of population) Non used cars elimination from the register (based on technical insepction and insurance data)

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Evaluating Evaluating traffic traffic safety safety

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different different car car makes makes

DATA SOURCES: DATA SOURCES:

► ► Road

Road accident accident data data from from the the accident accident database database

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Estonian Estonian Road Road Administration Administration ( (injury injury and and fatal fatal accidents accidents); );

► ► Motor

Motor vehicle vehicle kilometrage kilometrage data data from from Estonian Estonian Motor Motor Vehicle Vehicle Registration Registration Centre Centre (ARK); (ARK);

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Structure Structure

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the the accident accident database database

Sources: Road Administration EMVRC

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Representation of car makes in Estonian register

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• 427

6 981 1% 6554 ZAZ 74 6 736 1% 6810 Fiat 1 222 9 754 2% 10 976 Volvo 1 254 9 893 2% 11 147 Mitsubishi 3 164 8 974 3% 12 138 Peugeot 2 527 11 039 3% 13 566 Honda 3 230 12 534 3% 15 764 Mercedes 3 461 15 231 4% 18 692 Mazda 3 915 15 050 4% 18 965 Toyota

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21 815 4% 19 324 Moskvitch 2 767 17 918 4% 20 685 Nissan 5 202 15 636 4% 20 838 BMW 9 727 21 865 7% 31 592 Audi 13 680 30 170 9% 43 850 Volkswagen 6 067 42 359 10% 48 426 Opel 7 666 49 749 12% 57 415 Ford

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60 853 12% 58 593 Lada (VAZ) Change 2005-2003 2003 Percentage 2005

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Average Average kilometrage kilometrage of

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car car makes makes

21027 20275 19016 18413 18339 17725 17655 17357 16751 16675 16549 16517 15957 15763 15239 12987 8346 3724 3709 2640 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

CITROEN CHRYSLER SEAT PEUGEOT TOYOTA MERCEDES VOLVO NISSAN RENAULT HONDA SUZUKI BMW VOLKSWAGEN AUDI SKODA OPEL FORD LADA MOSKVITCH GAZ (VOLGA)

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Annual Annual exposure exposure

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car car makes makes

( (millions millions km) km)

0,0 100,0 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 600,0

VOLKSWAGEN AUDI OPEL FORD BMW MERCEDES NISSAN TOYOTA PEUGEOT HONDA VOLVO LADA RENAULT CITROEN CHRYSLER SUZUKI SEAT SKODA MOSKVITCH GAZ (VOLGA)

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I ndicators I ndicators: :

► ► General

General exposure exposure

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cars cars, , shared shared between between car car makes makes

► ► Accident

Accident risk risk ratio ratio: No : No of

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accidents/driven accidents/driven km km

► ► Accident

Accident severity severity risk: No risk: No of

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fatalities/injuries fatalities/injuries

► ► Fatality

Fatality risk risk ratio ratio: No : No of

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fatalities/driven fatalities/driven km km

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2 4 6 8 10 12

LADA CITROE N FORD P E UGE OT FIAT SKODA SUZUKI MUUD KIA MOSKVITS RE NAULT OP E L HONDA TOYOTA HYUNDAI MAZDA MB BMW SE AT CHRYSLE R VOLVO NISSAN AUDI VW MITSUBISHI SAAB

A u t

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a r g id Liiklusõnnetused/1 000 000 km

Casualty Casualty accidents accidents per per driven driven 1 1 million million km. km.

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Pass oh graafik siia Pass oh graafik siia

0,000 0,050 0,100 0,150 0,200 0,250 0,300 0,350 MOSKVITS SUZUKI CHRYSLE R TOYOTA SE AT VOLVO MAZDA BMW OP E L NISSAN LADA P E UGE OT MB FIAT FORD AUDI VW RE NAULT HONDA MITSUBISHI A u to m a r g id Hukkunuid vigastatute kohta

Ratio Ratio

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fatalities fatalities and and injuries injuries by by car car makes makes

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Pass reaal graafik siia Pass reaal graafik siia

0,0 0,4 0,8 1,2 1,6 2,0

MOSKVITS SUZUKI SE AT FIAT LADA CHRYSLE R TOYOTA FORD P E UGE OT MAZDA OP E L BMW VOLVO MB NISSAN RE NAULT VW AUDI HONDA MITSUBISHI

A u to m a r g id

Hukkunuid 1 miljoni km kohta

Fatalities Fatalities per per 1 1 million million km km shared shared by by car car makes makes

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Moskvich / I Moskvich / I Ž Ž

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The The results results and and conclusion conclusion

► ► Car

Car makes makes with with very very high high risk- risk- Moskvich Moskvich and Suzuki and Suzuki

► ► High

High risk: risk: Chrysler Chrysler and and Seat Seat

► ► Low

Low risk: risk: Audi, Audi, Honda Honda, Mitsubishi ja Volkswagen , Mitsubishi ja Volkswagen

► ► NCAP test

NCAP test can’t can’t be be compared compared with with this this research research

► ► Traffic

Traffic safety safety situation situation Estonia Estonia is is getting getting better better but but it it needs needs extra extra resources resources

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Thank Thank You You! !