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EMSEV - DEMETER 2008
EMSEV - DEMETER 2008
OUTLINE
- Particular
events
- The
statistical analysis
- Conclusions
Michel Parrot LPCE/CNRS Orlans, France EMSEV - DEMETER 2008 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Michel Parrot LPCE/CNRS Orlans, France EMSEV - DEMETER 2008 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
STATISTICS ON THE ELECTRON TEMPERATURE RECORDED BY THE SATELLITE DEMETER DURING SEISMIC ACTIVITY Michel Parrot LPCE/CNRS Orlans, France EMSEV - DEMETER 2008 OUTLINE Particular events The statistical analysis Conclusions
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EMSEV - DEMETER 2008
July 16, 2007 01:13:22 UT 37.57°N, 138.5°E M = 6.6 d = 10 km 12 heures avant
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EMSEV - DEMETER 2008
13 June 2008 23:43:46 UT Lat 39.103° Long 140.668° d = 10 km M = 6.8 2.5 days before
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d1 d3 d2 d4
Earthquake epicenter Conjugate point of the epicenter South conjugate point
- f the epicenter at
the satellite altitude North conjugate point
- f the epicenter at
the satellite altitude DEMETER orbit
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Sichuan 12 mai 2008 06:28:00 UT Lat 30.989° Long 103.329° d = 10 km M = 7.9
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EMSEV - DEMETER 2008
Statistic with the electron temperature
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EMSEV - DEMETER 2008
3 years of DEMETER data Ionospheric data is organized by
- Magnetic local time
- Geographic positions
- Kp
- Months
Seismic data is
- rganized
by
- M > 4.8
- Land / under
sea
- Aftershocks
have been removed
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EMSEV - DEMETER 2008
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Application of the central limit theorem Probability density function
- f the
wave intensities in a bin
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Time
- f
EQ 26 June 2007 00:30:00 UT 10 Hours before 14 Hours 30 after
► ►
x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x
Superposed epoch method
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All land EQs with M > 4.8
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All land EQs with M > 4.8 All EQs with M > 4.8
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All land EQs with M > 4.8 random
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- 5 days
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All land EQs with M > 4.8 Ion Temperature
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All land EQs with M > 4.8 36 months 46 months
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Conclusions (1/3)
The main points revealed by the statistical studies are:
- The values of the parameters when the satellite is far from the earthquakes are
similar to the values obtained when a random data set of events is used. Therefore this study shows that there is an influence of the seismic activity on the electron temperature at an altitude of 700 km before the earthquakes.
- The perturbations are observed until 2.5 days before the earthquakes.
- The perturbations are real but they are weak and only statistically revealed. Up to
now nothing can be said about the possibility to predict earthquakes with the analysis
- f the electron temperature.
- A weaker
effect is seen for the ion temperature
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Conclusions (2/3)
Statistical analysis are in progress with
- ther
parameters:
- Electromagnetic
waves
- Whistler dispersion
- Energetic
particles
- VLF Transmitters
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Conclusions (3/3)
Future work:
- Define
the criteria which caracterize an anomaly
- Search
- f
this anomaly in the whole data set
- Determine