Michael Keatinge The 2018 Annual Economic Report A comprehensive - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Michael Keatinge

The 2018 Annual Economic Report A comprehensive overview of the latest information available on the structure and economic performance

• f EU Member States (MS) fishing

fleets.

Clara Ulrich (Chair) and the Members of the STECF Angel Calvo Natacha Carvalho, Jordi Guillen, Two Working Groups, 33 experts Member States, Commission (DG Mare) Joint Research Centre, Ispra. STECF Compiled from surveys undertaken by Member States within the Data Collection Framework

(3) EU FLEET OVERVIEW

• Overview of the EU Fishing Fleet
• Economic Performance Indicators
• Assessment for 2017 and 2018
• EU small-scale coastal fleet (SSCF)
• Main drivers and trends
• Summary data tables by MS

CONTENTS

(4) EU FLEET REGIONAL ANALYSIS

General Overview North Sea & Eastern Arctic region Baltic Sea Northeast Atlantic region Mediterranean & Black Sea region Other Fishing Regions (OFR)

(5) NATIONAL CHAPTERS (23) (6) AER REPORT METHODOLOGY (7) COVERAGE & QUALITY

Fleet Changes 2008 - 2017

Economic Performance (Large Scale Fleet)

Trends in fleet capacity

Fleet Changes 2008 - 2017

Change Change 2008

• 2017

2016

• 2017

Number

• f
• Vessels

88,058 83,360 82,861

• 7.16%
• 0.60%

Number

• f

Inactive Vessels 19,371 17,962 15,875

• 19.14%
• 12%

Number

• f

Active Vessels 68,687 65,398 66,986

• 3.78%

2.40% '000 GT 1,845 1,600 1,561

• 19.30%
• 2.40%

kW 6,888 6,408 6,298

• 11.86%
• 1.70%

2008 2016 2017

Trends in fleet capacity

Includes Greece & Croatia

Active Fleet Capacity and Structure over time

Landings 5 million tonnes of seafood – Volume up 14% since 2008, value up 7%

Landings Per Unit Effort (LPUE) 1,300 kg per day at sea Increased 30% since 2008

Productivity Labour Productivity €42,800 (GVA/FTE) Increased 1.7% on 2014

Economic Performance (Large Scale Fleet)

Prices (€ kg-1)

Landings (Volume)

Landings (€ Value)

2015 2016 Change Revenue €7,248 €7,648 0.3% Labour Costs €1,891 €2,034 7% Unpaid Labour value €260 €231

• 11%

Fuel Costs €1,348 €1,097

• 19%

Repair Costs €577 €643 11% Other Variable Costs €987 €1,076 9% Non-variable Costs €600 €542

• 10%

Total €5,663 €5,623

• 1%

Gross Profit €1,620 €2,067 28%

Economic Performance (Large Scale Fleet)

2008 - 2016

• Revenue up 13% to €7.73 billion
• Gross Value Added up 42% to €4.5 billion
• Gross Profit up 93% to €2 billion
• Net Profit up 1200% to €1.3 billion

Performance Indicators

Economic Performance (Large Scale Fleet)

• Revenue up 13% to €7.73 billion
• Gross Value Added up 42% to €4.5 billion
• Gross Profit up 93% to €2 billion
• Net Profit up 1200% to €1.3 billion
• GVA to Revenue up from 46% to 58% Gross

Margin up from 16% to 27%

• Net Margin up from 2% to 17%

Performance Indicators

• Fuel down from 24% of revenue to 12%
• LPUE 1,300 kg per day at sea an increase of

30% since 2008

• Labour productivity up from €30,000 to

€50,000 per FTE

Performance Indicators

The AER Report contins:

• 23 National Chapters
• EU Overview
• 6 Regional Chapters
• Member States reports

While the AER Report doe not currently include a chapter dealing specifically with pelagic fisheries, the following ad hoc analysis was carried out using the AER 2018 data set.

Developing a Pelagic Assessment

• 1. Region (Area 27, Area 37, OFR)
• 2. Gear (Mid-water Trawling)
• 3. Vessel size category, (VL0010, VL1012, VL1218, VL1824, VL2440, VL40XX)

In 2016 mid water trawling generated catches in excess of €1

• billion. 154% growth between 2008 - 2016

Value of Catch from mid-water trawling

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% € 0 € 200 € 400 € 600 € 800 € 1.000 € 1.200 € 1.400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Catch Value % Change

Value of Catch €1,063 million in 2016

Value of Catch from mid-water trawling

200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 AREA27 AREA37 OFR Value of landings Miljoenen 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

90% from Area 27 (€954 million in 2016)

Value of Catch from mid-water trawling

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 VL0010 VL1012 VL1218 VL1824 VL2440 VL40XX Value of landings Miljoenen 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

83% from midwater trawling (€788 million in 2016)

For the purposes of this presentation the “Pelagic Fleet” is restricted to:

• the mid water trawl fleet,
• fishing in area 27,
• ver 40 metres in length.

AER Report

Number of Vessels in the VL40xx Mid Water Trawl Fleet

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total number of vessels 84 90 87 83 100 97 96 95 98 United Kingdom 29 31 31 30 31 30 30 27 27 Denmark 17 13 16 18 22 Ireland 20 20 20 19 21 21 21 21 20 Sweden 10 13 11 7 7 8 7 10 9 Netherlands 14 13 12 14 12 13 10 7 7 Germany 3 4 4 3 5 5 5 5 5 France 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 Finland 3 4 4 5 2 2 2 2 3 Lithuania 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Poland 1 1 1 1 1 1 Grand Total 84 90 87 83 100 97 96 95 98

Number of Vessels in the Mid Water Trawl Fleet

20 40 60 80 100 T

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Capacity of the Mid Water Trawl Fleet (GT)

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Vessel tonnage United Kingdom Netherlands Denmark Germany Ireland France Sweden Finland Lithuania Poland

Capacity of the Mid Water Trawl Fleet (kW)

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Engine power

• United

Kingdom Netherlands Denmark Ireland Germany Sweden France Finland Lithuania Poland

Age of the mid-water trawl fleet

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Lithuania Finland France Poland Germany Netherlands Denmark Sweden Ireland United Kingdom

Age of the mid-water trawl fleet

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Actual Zero Investment Full Replacement

Employment by the mid-water trawl fleet

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 200820092010201120122013201420152016 Total employed Netherlands United Kingdom Ireland Denmark France

Average wage on the mid-water trawl fleet

€0 €20,000 €40,000 €60,000 €80,000 €100,000 €120,000 €140,000 €160,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Fuel used per day at sea (litres)

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 23,005 23,975 24,805 22,461 21,467 27,465 27,659 27,416 27,386 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Netherlands United Kingdom Ireland Denmark France

Fuel used per tonne landed (litres)

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 241 259 248 276 212 220 207 202 182 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Netherlands Ireland United Kingdom Denmark France

Overall Profitability

16% 10% 14% 15% 13% 14% 11% 9% 6% 20% 22% 19% 22% 19% 19% 20% 21% 19% 11% 14% 11% 12% 10% 9% 12% 15% 13% 12% 11% 16% 18% 12% 12% 4% 5% 5% 10% 9% 8% 8% 6% 6% 8% 9% 7% 11% 8% 9% 11% 14% 16% 12% 14% 12% 8% 21% 25% 8% 11% 12% 10% 12% 9% 8% 0% 3% 13% 10% 21% 13% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Energy costs Wages and salaries

• f

crew Unpaid labour value Repair & maintenance costs Other non-variable costs Other variable costs Rights costs Annual depreciation costs Other costs (investments etc) Net profit

Energy Consumption per tonne landed (litres/tonne)

North Sea & Eastern Arctic region

Fuel Costs as % of Landed Value

North Sea & Eastern Arctic region

Gross Profit per Day-at-Sea

North Sea & Eastern Arctic region

Catch by Member State

United Kingdom 25% Denmark 23% Netherlands 20% Germany 11% Ireland 10% Sweden 7% France 4% Lithuania 0%

Volume Value

United Kingdom 37% Denmark 19% Netherlands 15% Germany 10% Ireland 11% Sweden 4% France 4% Lithuania 0%

Catch composition by Member State

Species Mackerel Horse mackerel Herring Blue Whiting Sprat United Kingdom 73% 1% 22% 4% 0% Ireland 69% 21% 3% 8% 0% Germany 34% 9% 39% 12% 7% France 26% 2% 45% 27% 0% Netherlands 24% 16% 40% 19% 1% Denmark 22% 3% 50% 7% 18% Sweden 4% 0% 69% 0% 27% Lithuania 0% 0% 23% 0% 77%

Volume & Value of Catch

€/tonne United Kingdom 340,388 25% €273,031,066 37% €802 Denmark 317,154 23% €143,893,583 19% €454 Netherlands 266,359 20% €110,728,357 15% €416 Germany 150,479 11% €70,759,247 10% €470 Ireland 143,431 11% €82,649,983 11% €576 Sweden 90,979 7% €30,246,005 4% €332 France 49,779 4% €30,833,678 4% €619 Lithuania 4,242 0% €1,152,056 0% €272 Volume (Tonnes) Value

Average price by species and Member State

Mackerel Horse mackerel Herring Blue whiting Sprat MS1 €994 €807 €671 €315 €269 MS2 €630 €420 €370 €627 MS3 €900 €382 €407 €367 €269 MS4 €590 €514 €424 €178 MS5 €230 €240 MS6 €630 €510 €360 €300 €340 MS7 €811 €197 €377 €210 €245 MS8 €1,031 €515 €749 €276 €486 Average Price €900 €556 €526 €309 €264 64% 309% 226% 199% 103%

Average value per tonne of catch by Member State

United Kingdom 163% France 126% Ireland 117% Germany 95% Denmark 92% Netherlands 84% Sweden 67% Lithuania 55%

Performance indicators by Member State

Fleet €/kw/FD €/GT/FD €/GT €/kW €/tonne kW/GT €/FD MS1 €2.64 €5.11 €3,723 €1,926 €576 1.93 €113,374 MS2 €2.03 €3.81 €6,242 €3,322 €454 1.88 €87,901 MS3 €1.99 €4.61 €4,724 €2,036 €802 2.32 €266,632 MS4 €0.98 €1.02 €1,715 €1,642 €416 1.04 €66,146 MS5 €0.71 €2.14 €4,786 €1,598 €332 3.00 €13,497

• A 66% cut in the TAC for Mackerel will reduce revenue by €257 million
• A 50% cut in the TAC for Herringwill reduce revenue by €241million
• Revenue will be down by €500 million or 35% of annual total.

In the event that these reductions are maintained, then in the medium term, Ceteris paribus, it can be expected that:

• Up to 400 jobs will be adversely affected in the catching sector.
• An additional 600 jobs will affected in associated and ancillary jobs ashore.
• Effort will reduce by 45% which will impact fuel but NOT labour to the same extent,
• Fixed costs will remain little changed.
• Net profit is likely to be down by 50% - 60%

OUTLOOK FOR 2019